Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 10:14am


Any evidence that this person is not just some crank on the internet making a bunch of cryptic comments that can later be interpreted as prophetic? Why does everyone give this stuff any credence?

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:15am

I'd go there

I don't care. I say Blythe is hot and i would definitely hit that. What a great story that would be.

Tom L TF
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:15am

Nothing is certain

until it happens. I didn't tell you what odds I was laying on you being right. :)


Aug 10, 2011 - 10:16am

contest entry

doesn't look like my $1776.74 is going to last 'till friday. can't say it's a loss i'll mind mucn, but i did have a space already cleared out in the closet for the hat. i'll miss that.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:20am

Gold 1,776 +33 +1.87

Gold 1,776 +33 +1.87

silver foil hat Vypuero
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:23am


way too many coincidences of "her" posting first and action happening second in the market to be a crank on the internet.

My opinion, of course.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:24am

1780 is gone!

There goes 1780!

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:24am
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:25am

This maybe the break out

This maybe the break out Turd. exciting to watch for sure.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:27am

The Battle of Gold and Evil.

The Battle of Gold and Evil. I for one am enjoying the show.

Keep on Stacking! The Gentry's?

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:31am

Sean, Sean he's our man, if he can't do it...

Way to go Sean Boyd/AEM! Climb you monkey!!!

$ %
Price Paid
Total Gain
Trade 1.05 0.26 32.91% $0.355 165.21%
surfeitndearth TheGoodDoctor
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:34am
Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:36am

MFN Mistake

So yesterday I made a big error. I bought 20 MFN $16 AUGUST calls at $0.20 per, thinking for some odd reason they were Septs. MFN at the time was below $14.

MFN is now at $15 to $15.15 and those calls are a $0.25 bid. Ye gods, I might get out of those with a profit, no less my ass intact.


Larry Strongsidejedi
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:38am

@Strongside Jedi

"I've been looking for your reference to BAC selling their junk contracts to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I located litigation between Fannie against BAC and Freddie against BAC, but not "sales" of BAC junk to the GSE's. Where did you see that story?"

Jedi - The way I scour through multiple news sources (lots) each morning (always), while listening to multiple early-hour financial tv channels (several) makes it hard to retrace my steps unless I bookmark it (and my bookmarks must be nearing overload by now). But I have a few here for you (BTW: I think I said, Fannie, not Freddie):

Fannie Mae to buy $73 billion of mortgages from Bank of America - Washington Business Journal

BofA Sells Part of Mortgage Portfolio to Fannie Mae -

goldsaver aurum argentum
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:41am

A lady liberty? I hope that

A lady liberty? I hope that is gold brother, for that it better be. Unless you are just a cheap whore ;-)

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:45am

The Turd is definitely muy famosa!

Hi fellow Turdites, quite the ball game here, eh? (Yah, I'm Canadian). I've been in Costa Rica for the past couple of weeks, watching from the sidelines. In my time down here, I have met one big league bond trader / broker, and two guys like myself who are stackers who do their best to hold on tight and spend quite a bit of time wondering what the f**k is going on and when the whole thing is going to blow sky high. Funny thing is, every one of them knows who TURD FERGUSON is, and reads the articles on tfmetalsreport. The report is always mentioned in conjunction with Zero Hedge. Great work, Turd! Muchas gracias y bueno suerte amigos. WOW!!!!

maravich44 Strongsidejedi
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:49am

BOFA @ Strongsidejedi.

Yahoo finance, and discussed on CNBC this A.M.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:50am

AMIGOS ! Looks like that


Looks like that Silver is trying to break free with his big brother? IT looks good to me !

Tecumseh survivalwstyle
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:50am

Cannot read your posts

survivalstyle: I am sure you have interesting things to say, but your "style" (i.e., using double capitals) makes reading your posts next to impossible. For Cormac McCarthy's art, I am willing to work at it. For yours, not so much. I would urge you to relent and adopt a more traditional style of writing in the English language.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:50am

Dear Admin

Just checked: the Team 6 page is stale. Just 6 posts, the most recent from Sunday night.

It's certainly not where I'd post anything nearly as important as the updates surrounding this tragedy, especially due to the well founded suspicions shared by so many. The story also talks to the corruption we see playing out everywhere. The PM space is but a subset of a much greater whole.

It's akin to putting a story of this magnitude in Section G, page 26 of the Sunday ny times. Is that really where you feel questions and concerns about the deaths of these fine young Americans belong? Well I sure don't.

I think the self moderation shown by all the participants in the discussion today performed its function just fine.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:51am


Fannie Mae to buy $73 billion of mortgages from Bank of America - Washington Business Journal

BofA Sells Part of Mortgage Portfolio to Fannie Mae -

Fuking morons playing pass the trash. Talk about BS

Ned Braden Tecumseh
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:56am

Cannot read posts

I agree with Tecumseh.

Banzai over at Zerohedge can get away with it. You aint Banzai.


Ned Braden Tecumseh
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:56am

Cannot read posts

I agree with Tecumseh.

Banzai over at Zerohedge can get away with it. You aint Banzai.


Aug 10, 2011 - 10:57am


Granny is watching O'Bottom fold like a cheap tent. She is wondering whether the Illuminati are tired of him too. Maybe they ram home the clown from Texas, R. Perry-ass, the fake Christian guy doing a double take on the other fake Christian mini-monster, G.W.

She is stocking up on dried food, chewing tobacco and still cleaning the anti-aircraft gun perched in the rear window of her attic. Its a vintage, Wehrmarcht issue circa 44' and she has trouble finding ammo for it now. But she likes the antiques so what can I say?

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:07am

TomL, Sure looks like the


Sure looks like the divergence is continuing!

Tom L redwood
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:10am


I think it's for real this time.

Get ready to stop bitching and make some money people.

C'mon MFN and SVM, daddy needs a new barn!!


Aug 10, 2011 - 11:11am

sorry ginger,

I don't mean to confuse, I have a lot on my plate, my I' m doing the hospice thing with my dad at my house, a week or two to go, mainland wedding coming labor day, etc.. Plus i don't read all the comments too much wa wa. Private chat me after 10am hst and I will explain what perplexes you if I can. I also don't like to give all my cards away to avoid the combative personalities and or crowd my trades with those who are to lazy to do the footwork. My kuleana is to kokua those in true need such as yourself. Don't buy Morris's service just read his pieces I'll explain later, wrote about it yesterday but it got dr=eleted. Gotta hele as I'm working (4am-8am,7days) and dads waking up, i have 100 lunches to produce and deliver in that time (plus place trades) .

A hui hou malama pono kakou

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:11am

I am Ready

To have capital gains issues with the IRS. Seriously, I'm okay with that right now.


Aug 10, 2011 - 11:12am

would love an old German '88

beautiful gun. Is it the model '36 or the newer model '41?

Economical Disaster
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:12am


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