Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 9:35am

DJIA is dropping

almost as fast as Obottom's approval ratings

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:36am

How ironic

Gold at 1776.

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:39am

Key Day for the XAU and HUI

With the Dow and S&P giving back all of yesterday's gains, if the XAU and HUI trade with Gold which is up strong than that should be the divergence signal we need for lift-off in the mining shares over the next couple of weeks. Trading with the general market means we're still caught in the Matrix.


Aug 10, 2011 - 9:41am

GG 1/21/12 $62.50 Call

I've been waiting to grab some of these, today may be the day...

Bid /Ask: 1.07 / 1.16, price down .05 (4.35%) to 1.10 so far

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:41am

Here comes the hit on Gold

@ $1780. If it doesn't drop $40 in the next 10 minutes, we may have a push higher, esp. with the news about Soc. General going poofta!


Aug 10, 2011 - 9:44am

what is your thought on this???

TPTB are allowing gold to rise without much interference. The reason is to claim it is in a bubble. They can say look "silver is not up with it" " platinum is selling below gold, how stupid is that"

They have discouraged people from buying silver. Will this work with gold?

The reason for allowing gold to rise is, they have gold. They can dump tons of it on the market and bring the price crashing. They don't have silver. Silver is the one thing that can show people that the banks have been playing games.

When the music stops in gold there is all the gold ever produced still available to them.

When the music stops in silver, there is 100 people marching around the one chair in the middle of the room.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:44am

Monday August 15, 2011

This coming Monday is the 40th anniversary of Nixon taken the US$ off the gold standard. Can't think of a better date to let the current POSX fall.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:46am

Dow Tanking

Dow down..downn....the euphoria lasted for just 1 day...whta gamw will Blythe play next??how long will Ag be supressesd??does it end today??i smell Ben cooking QE just around the corner....

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:50am

Thank you AUY

Keep it coming baby...

last trade today's gains Cost YTD

1.40 0.13 10.24% $0.32 287.90%
BlackHawk ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:50am

ewc, AGAIN where did you get your info

I grabbed the latest statistics available. What is the date on your info source and who compiled it? Just asking. maybe your source is better. Or maybe you're just blowing smoke up our arses? I'd like to know where your facts come from, especially since you are so found of sharing conspiracy theories on the main blog.

We wouldn't want you going around half-cocked, causing an information mis-fire.

NJ Turdpike
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:51am

Silver and Gold

I have about equal amounts of both silver and gold right now. I'd like to see silver going up too, but I agree with those that think the differential in margin requirements between the two metals, makes gold a more attractive choice for traders right now. Is there a point at which we should consider swapping out of gold and getting silver instead, as the ratio of gold/silver expands?

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:52am

silver stifled

just this nauseating feeling of silver being grabbed by the neck...the grip is getting weaker,,,the shackles are about to be broken..that's my gut feeling..the manipulation algos are slowly running out of Permutations & Combinations

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:53am



Aug 10, 2011 - 9:54am
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:55am

Rule 48

seems like Rule 48 ain't havin the desired effect

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:55am


Worried about silver here - if gold fails to break thru and corrects it's red headed step child might be headed for the wood shed.

Tom L ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:57am


I feel the same way. I loaded up (85 contracts) on OCT 11 calls at $0.2565. I've got a bid of $0.34 right now.

My Jan 12 calls ($17.50) bought at $0.29 are now looking at $0.62 bids.

AUY looking very good indeed.


Aug 10, 2011 - 9:58am

So you say BH

And yes, don't worry your feathered head: All is exactly right with the world. All is exactly as you've been told. There is only ever coincidence. I lie, just for fun. Feel better now bunky?

I'll leave it at that, we're now in the trading day. From here it's your monologue. You can play Globex after hours.

Tom L ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:58am

XAU Divergence

It's happening. XAU/HUI flat, Dow tanking. Money is rolling out of the Dow and slowly into quality.

It'll have to complete the whole trading session though to make me really happy.


Aug 10, 2011 - 10:00am

Message to Larry

Larry - thanks for your comment on my discussion last night with the Good Doctor.

I've been trying to piece together just what in the world the banks were thinking after watching my town get run over by the speculation, bad paper, and the politicos from out of town. It's sort of like a person from outside this area runs in, stakes a claim, jams the local economy, and then runs out with the money. It was a slow-motion pick pocket that sucks the wind right out of the local businesses and leaves families out of their homes, the businesses destroyed, and the government unable to function.

I've been looking for your reference to BAC selling their junk contracts to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I located litigation between Fannie against BAC and Freddie against BAC, but not "sales" of BAC junk to the GSE's. Where did you see that story?

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:01am
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:02am
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:03am

Tom, glad you're on AUY too

Hey bro, is this double post thing of yours really just an illuminati plot to get 2X the hat tips? Ok, call me a silly conspiracy theorist but...

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:07am


No new post. I've updated this one, instead.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:07am


Bugsy Malone - Down & Out
Tom L ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:07am

EWC: Double Posts

No. It's not I swear. But since they're up there, I have to scramble to say something vaguely intelligent. If if that happens and the HT's come my way.... who am I to complain? ;)


Buzz Wired
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:09am

Wynter Benton's Message to Jes Staley

@ The Good Doctor - I saw this too.

I'd be interested to hear everyone's interpretation of what this might mean. Turd, your thoughts?

Jes Staley is the CEO of JP Morgan's Investment Bank. Presumably, he is Blythe's boss, right?

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 10:11am

If Turd's Right

And the cartel retreats from $1780 Dec Gold it's going to take Silver with it. All indicators on the chart look that way to me. I can't see the bid/quote structure but that's my feeling anyways.


Aug 10, 2011 - 10:13am

SVM up, silver down ...

will silver be starting it's next run as TF mentioned.

Aug 10, 2011 - 10:14am





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