Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 8:51am

awesome post!

Nice analysis and goes along with what i think

We can't really go much lower? so the risk is nullified

Just bought a new stack of physical!

Let's hope for $44!

Paladex ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:51am

Chicago gun control

@ewc58, Rahm Emanuel should know better. Here's a nice editorial explaining why Jews, of all people, should NEVER give up their guns.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:54am

pbreed, you're entitled to your opinion

and diversity of opinion is welcomed here. I generally post what in my opinion are important non-PM stories and links pretty early, prior to markets opening, so it doesn't disrupt the flow once we get rolling. Believe me, I'd much rather be discussing the relative merits of silver and gold. But this blog is not intended to be a vacuum either.

I feel the Team 6 tragedy and the questions about what actually happened are so serious as to be Front Page worthy. Some may disagree and I can appreciate that. No offense intended or taken.

Have a good trading day.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:57am

Gold worth more than Platinum

Sorry if this has already been pointed out, but the price of gold is periodically exceeding that of platinum.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:58am
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:00am

manufacturedopinion, Your

manufacturedopinion, Your post said what I was trying to say earlier. I'm on the same page as you the same book. ..Here is an excerpt from Hubbartt's latest which just makes alot of sense to me when taken together with the TA (which I'm not good at but understand others' analysis of it) and charts. Hubbartt: (link follows)

  • There is a strong possibility of a strong short term blast to the upside now, fuelled by short covering. I am projecting that the rally could take price to around $1700-1800. From there, I think a substantial sell-off occurs, and I mean something much more painful than you experienced yesterday. Most investors have been caught flat footed on this rally. The metals rally is a solid month ahead of “seasonal schedule”.
  • Yesterday’s hit has likely ushered in a lot of shorting by hedge funds. The fuel is now there for a huge short covering blast higher, one that could get us to $1750 in the short term.
  • That price would slightly exceed my original short term $1700 target. Bull price target overshoots are always a possibility in the greatest bull markets. From there I see a smack down, and then the real deal rally you have all been waiting on for ten years should unfold into the fall.

Kumanari, your posts are like a scavenger hunt for meaning and clues to me. :D ..but worth the thought and energy required because of value extracted. ...I am working on that latest one. ...most probably I am making it more difficult than it has to be. ...hmm.. ...hmmmmm... ....(you and kliguy kind of drive me a bit nuts actually.. but in a good way and I can't help but seek you out. ...I'm gettin' it ..I'm arriving... ...sometimes I just need to hear it over and over again. one more time?.. ..doin' the math..

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:02am

5 - 4 - 3...

POSX rescue time ! And we all know how that works.

...2 - 1 - slam
Bettin 10 'o clock NY ?

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:06am

Paladex, you are SO right there

In fact, did you know that right up there with Larry Pratt's Gun Owners of America , Jews For the Preservation of Firearms Ownership (JPFO) is one of the oldest, most most effective pro-gun advocacy groups in America? Well, it's true, just kept effectively secret ny the msm.

There are plenty of Jews who get it, probably more than don't. For the very reasons you allude to. It's just that the msm never speaks to Jews who hold pro-gun views. Hell, they never speak to anyone who "gets" guns or why they are so essential to real freedom for the common man and woman.

But who listens to the msm about anything anymore? We rightly tune it out more and more with each passing day.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:07am

here we go again 1764/38.50

i fEEl like im on WWe smackdown. SNAP INTO A SLIM JIM!!!

that is right. RIP rMMs.

17 times on the 30 min. in the last 48 hrs. we have traded in a range @ or above 1764. each time geTTIng snaPPed back.

we aLL know the story on AG. suPPly, demand, monetary, industrial, OI, margins et al.

those that are stiLL here holding their core in a vice grip could give a flip. give us another dip. damn right we wiLL buy it.

i have to kEEp teLLin myself that this is not real. time to seTTle the score.

38.50 again....hmmm 30min. here shows me 12 times we have touched this range and puLLed back!

i was clearly up on the wrong side of the bed today!!! already fEElin' beTTer.. time to go make a bunch of paper as we bust out through these EE raid levels and head 4 the mOOn. 44 sOOn.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:07am

FUBM battle underway in both PM's?

Looks like it's going to get interesting and I think $1764 is going to be overtaken today or by weeks end. Tug-of-War so far.

This $1764 area and how JS and Co. nailed this down is eye opening. Seems like such a innocuous number yet were seeing how important it is.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:08am
BostonMatrix SilverTree
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:09am

erm, 'bout now?

if you live in the UK, shit and fan have already interfaced.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:09am

Keeping it real

Hey, I like ambling guitar solos and fantasmagorical phrasing of unintelligible lyrics as much as the next guy. But if we're going to post music videos, let's at least keep it relevant and insightful.

BostonMatrix SilverTree
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:10am

erm, 'bout now?

if you live in UK, shit and fan have already interfaced.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:11am
Tom L SilverDog
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:13am


That was in reference to the current riots going on in LONDON RIGHT NOW, ie. I can't run out with my shotgun and protect the shopkeepers and non-violents in London getting aggressed as we type. Context my son.

I have plenty of guns and know how to use them.

My icon is a self-portrait.


Aug 10, 2011 - 9:14am

Market downfall resumes?

Europe stocks all in the RED! US futures - wow.... lookin' into the abyss again. Santa's angels are strong today! :)

BlackHawk ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:16am

Chicago Facts for ewc

FBI crime statistics for 2009 show Chicago is ranked 13th in murder rate. New Orleans is numero uno, over 3x the rate of Chicago. Where did you get your facts?






New Orleans








St. Louis







New Jersey








District of Columbia




New York





Kansas City























Aug 10, 2011 - 9:18am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:19am

goes without saying

After catching up on reading ALL of yesterdays posts I just wanted to say, that 99.9% of everyone that posts here are smart, intelligent and sharing people. It's an honor and a privilege to be part of such a group.

Adam Smith ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:21am

RE: Last on Team 6 for the day


File this under it may be nothing but it may be something. Your comment about "anyone in the know in the US military knows what happened" struck a chord with me. I listened to the Jim Rickards interview on King World News (very good listen for lots of reasons). What struck me about the interview and your comment was Rickards' statement about where the US gold reserves are stored. According to Rickards most of it is at West Point or Fort Knox (these are US Military bases). His point was that the US Military controls this nation's gold supply. Makes one go "hhmmm..."

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:21am

Blackhawk 2009 was 2 years ago,

at least that's what the one i use says.

Nice cherry pick though. Out of all that, that was your big takeaway?

Tom L rishi
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:23am

@Rishi: Trendlines and Goats

You are absolutely right about that short-term trend line resistance. Good catch. I was focused on showing the longer term process. For this kind of work, the longer the formation has been intact the stronger it is and the more significant the breakout from it.

Thank you all for the kind words on my charting/lifestyle choice etc. It's been a long, slow grind to competence.

For those interested I have pics of my goats here:


Aug 10, 2011 - 9:24am
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:26am

Meredith Whitney is soon going to be the

Queen of Correct. Good on her for sticking to her guns and taking the heat she surely knew would come.

Chapman has said it for years: get out of muni bonds, yesterday

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:30am
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:30am
Aug 10, 2011 - 9:30am

Keeping it Humble

The music seems like a nice distraction from all the negative crap. Mostly a late night musical interlude opportunity for those who have trouble sleeping or who might be waking up on the other side of the planet.

The feedback seems mostly positive. Just skip past them maybe. Sorry if I seem to clog the board all at once late at night.

Keep posting the beautiful classic music that I don't know the names of nor the composers also, but love none the less.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:31am

Above article for those who

Above article for those who are concerned about investing in mining shares, take a look. This author is usually spot on.

Aug 10, 2011 - 9:33am

Charlie Gasparino

From FOXBN has been aggravating for the last year and until about 3 months ago was harping on Whitney big time for making the call a year or so ago. She'll be right unfortunately.

I notice he's shut up lately and there is no way FOX brings it up and lets him stew when he's wrong. He has grudge against her obviously and his journalistic bias is obvious,


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