Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


maravich44 ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:41am


Maybe Barry could appoint a "Missing Money Czar". O.J. would be perfect.

Aug 10, 2011 - 7:44am

@ Silver Foil Hat - thanks

@ Silver Foil Hat - thanks for that link. I've been following WB's posts as well, at first I was skeptical, but many of "her" predictions panned out, and "she" seems to become active and start posting before a big move, as I agree with Turd we'll have over the next six weeks. If you look at Jesse's weekly charts you'll see silver usually declines into options expiration before a delivery month, then takes off, which means we have a week or so left of bottoming then a nice rise.

silver foil hat maravich44
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:46am


only if it was lost on a golf course.

Aug 10, 2011 - 7:47am


Linking skills not what they need to be.

silver foil hat TheGoodDoctor
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:48am

@TheGoodDoctor -Interesting

Not sure if this relates regarding the "thermonuclear" reference:

There was speculation that WB is "working for" an international sovereign fund or government (or individuals within that gov't).

They are reported to be a bunch of former traders who worked for blythe that blythe screwed over.... now they are getting their revenge.

For those who don't have time to click on the link provided, here's the start / conclusion of the approx. 2 page article:

The old Cold War USA-USSR nuclear arms race has been replaced by the East-West Central Bank battle to accumulate physical gold and physical silver reserves. While Western Central Banks and their puppet bullion banks have distracted and goaded private citizens with the invention of fraudulent bogus paper gold and paper silver derivative products, including ETFs more recently, and paper futures contracts for a much longer period of time, they themselves have been making sure to avoid the very fraudulent paper products they have invented and have been diving headfirst into real physical precious metals.


However, the fundamental reasons that have driven gold from $250 to $1,600 and silver from $4 to its current $39 – $40 range are even stronger today than they were at the beginning of this precious metals bull. Therefore, it is impossible for a bubble in gold and silver to exist at their current prices and at this current time.
And for this reason, this is precisely why the global nuclear arms race has been replaced by a global physical gold race. Welcome to the new global war in precious metals.

Aug 10, 2011 - 7:49am

London Turk and Sihk Vigilantes Draw the Line

Turks police own London district amid rioting

Looks like ethnic communities are succeeding in protecting the lives and property in their communities, armed with nothing more than big sticks and the determination draw the line on rioters.

Knowing your neighbors and working together for common cause is the best defense in urban chaos.

maravich44 Larry
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:50am

@ Larry Banksters.

..starting to eat their own (hopefully). We need the first domino to fall.

Aug 10, 2011 - 7:50am

Last on Team 6 for the day

Yesterday one of the team here made what now sounds to me like a brilliant comment about how this may have been the Obottom admins greatest mistake. Realize that anyone in the know in the US military knows what happened, and should also realize it could happen to them. God knows how many of our sons and daughters, brothers and sisters, fathers and mothers, uncles and aunts, and friends have had their lives stolen from them just like this over the past 10 years. The EE may have inserted some illuminazi errand boyz in the top slots, but they don't contol the countyside. The Obottom Posse just made about 3 million more serious enemies who know how to get 'er done. Good luck with that Barry.

By the way, if you ever saw or heard a Chinook up close, you might pee yourself- - it's a big, loud, tough machine. While an RPG could hole one and possibly cause serious damage, the notion that an RPG was the cause of this chopper's complete destruction is laughable on its face. And pay particular attention to this: Team 6 didn't have their usual ride. Extremely telling; breaks protocol. God I wish they never got on that thing, looking back this was an obvious set up for slaughter.

Excerpt from the Reuters piece I linked above:

"The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force said Monday the CH-47 Chinook helicopter was fired on by a rocket-propelled grenade while carrying the U.S. service members and commandos to the scene of an ongoing fight.

One of the many issues observers expected to be investigated was why the elite fighters traveled in the Army-owned chopper, instead of a MH-47 more commonly used by special forces.

There are thousands of U.S. special forces operating in Afghanistan and they have been involved in more than 2,000 operations to go after specific militants over the past year, according to Pentagon estimates.

But rocket-propelled grenade attacks like this one rarely take down a helicopter and had not killed so many U.S. forces at once in Afghanistan until now."

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:51am

@GoodDoC: Rickards interview

I think this is the one you were looking for that I posted in another thread yesterday. It's from the CBC

Starts at around 34 minute mark.


aurum argentum
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:55am

HB and Hard Rain

HB, i am jealous too. But, I did buy the Monterey Pop Festival DVD set and I've been watching it regularly since buying the set 3+ years ago. The outakes DVD is remarkable. I was a kid selling lemonade to all the non moving cars on their way to woodstock at summer camp in '69. I did not know that was woodstock until my paerents and i were talking about that time 6 years later. "Oh, THAT was what all the noise was"...They went to woodstock. How i didn't put 2+2 together was crazy.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:01am

And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming

Good morning my lovely!

POSX future is now back down to 74.08

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:04am


Should be interesting to see how the switch pullers treat the POSX$ this morning.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:08am

Little brother feeling better today, will it last?

Let's get moving there buddy, you've got a Turd prediction to achieve by Labor Day.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:12am
Tom L BlackHawk
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:16am


And it should go without saying around here, but if the people of London were armed with something more than sticks and good ol' fashioned hardhededness (I'm thinking something chambered in .40S&W or bigger) that the 'riots' wouldn't be targeting private property at all.

All of this is tragic on a scale that's nearly unfathomable. Good luck to anyone trying to protect themselves without the proper tools. All I can do is emanate good will, which is a pretty piss-poor substitute for a shotgun.


Aug 10, 2011 - 8:16am


Isn't there a "conspiracy alley" in the forums? Why you dropping all that stuff here on main st?

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:20am

It looks like we are breaking

It looks like we are breaking out of that huge downtrend established at $42.20. This is a significant development along with the latest attempt by gold to bust through the $1764 angel.

Hourly Silver Chart Here:


Aug 10, 2011 - 8:24am

@Tom L "All I can do is

@Tom L "All I can do is emanate good will, which is a pretty piss-poor substitute for a shotgun."

Get a license Tom. Join a clay shooting club, a license should only take a few weeks. I did this and now have many shotguns, I know how to shoot well and I feel quite safe, nothing says 'Fuck Off" better than a black SuperNova pump shotgun!

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:25am


If we are breaking out here - $2000 is on the way - making it safe to get into mining stocks!!!!

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:28am

Tom L Connect the trendline -

Tom L

Connect the trendline - joining 40.20 to 39.53 and 38.01 in hourly charts - that seems to be the reason silver resisted at 38.60 (for now)

Thanks for your chart - great help for me since I have just started learning trendlines.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:30am

Tom L

I've been following your charting efforts in Eric O's gold miner forum. Nice work! . . . and excellent analysis of the current silver breakout! A hat tip to you Sir! Keep on charting!

btw - props to you for your rural lifestyle choice. Most people go Galt, . . . you gone Goat!

ogie ogilthorpe rishi
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:32am

US MINT - Halting The Sale of Gold Collector Coins

...anybody just hear this on CNBC?? What gives??

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:35am

U.S. Mint halts sales of gold

U.S. Mint halts sales of gold collector coins

Tue Aug 9, 2011 10:15pm GMT

* Suspension comes as gold prices reach record level

* Affects numismatic collector coins, not bullion coins

By Jane Sutton

MIAMI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - A spike in gold prices prompted the U.S. Mint to suspend the online sale of gold collector coins on Tuesday for the first time in recent memory, a mint spokesman said.

The move affects only the gold numismatic products sold to collectors and not the gold bullion coins sold to investors, Mint spokesman Mike White said from Washington.

Sales were suspended at midday for re-pricing, which was expected to be completed by late on Wednesday, he said.

Asked when that had last happened, White said, "not in recent history that I can remember."

The American Eagle bullion coins for investors are sold only to authorized wholesalers -- not directly to the public -- and move with the London spot prices. Their sale was not affected, White said.

Prices for the gold numismatic coins sold directly to collectors and hobbyists include a surcharge and are based on a weekly average. The Mint has always reserved the right to halt those sales when the market price for bullion approaches the price of the collector coins, but no one could remember when -- if ever -- it had actually exercised that right, White said.

It happened on Tuesday, as worries of more government intervention in European and U.S. debt crises pushed gold prices to a record near $1,800 an ounce before settling lower as the stock market bounced higher.

Numismatic gold coins include American Eagle proof sets that are specially minted to produce a fancier finish, as well as limited-edition commemorative coins honoring American institutions, culture and history. The surcharges on those go to support organizations such as museums and historical sites. (Reporting by Jane Sutton; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Paladex margaritatime
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:37am

Next full moon is August 13.

Next full moon is August 13. New moon is August 28.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:37am

Seal team 6

Probably belongs on the forum, but here is my 2c.

The seals do risky things. Some of them get killed.

The ones that get killed need to be accounted for, about every 2 to 4 years we have had large choppers crash full of special forces, I believe its just a way to account for the deaths on other missions.

Right after major hostilities stopped in the Iraq war we lost a big chopper full of special forces, if I remember correctly that chopper crashed carrying more people than it was supposed to carry.

The familiy gets told that their loved one crashed in a helicopter rather than killed on a 4 man mission to scount in someplace line IRAN or North Korea.... some place where we should not have troups.....

If you've been watching their is a pattern here....

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:42am

U.S. Mint halts sales of gold collector coins

Very very good sign of supply depletion.

This could get messy.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:44am

Chicago now has the highest murder rate in the nation

Literally twice that of Fun City, the Big Apple. How odd Chicago is the murder champ because, after all, it's been a felony for anyone to possess a handgun legally there since '95.

Any objective observer can see how 'gun control" is really just murder enablement: it NEVER stops those who own guns illegally and use them to prey on those denuded of their right to protect themselves. Note: Commies just "gun control" and their myriad agents work toward the goal of leaving us utterly defenseless against the burgeoning Tyranny of the State. Ahhh Chicago, the Land of Stinkin'. And now with Rahm as mayor, how perfect is that? That silly piker Blogo out, replaced by a proper crime Kingpin. Nice upgrade. If you live in Chicago: leave while you can. That recent "flash mob" at the lake? It's the shape of things to come.

Meanwhile, did you know Kennesaw, GA passed mandatory gun ownership laws in 1982? OMG, those crazy, gun toting, Bible thumping crackers, what a wild west show it must be down there!

Uhhhh, no. Not hardly. Not in the real world. At the very time you take your life in your hands venturing into certain parts of Commietown, Kennesaw has been enjoying a 75% reduction in violent crime.

You do the math.

AgeApe47 Jive Dadson
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:46am


Jim says they are derived mathematically and come from Jesse Livermore. Regarding these numbers if you back check them, they are a range of about + or - $20 bucks. Gold trading back and forth over 1650 for a week before heading north to the 1764 range where it now hovers (smack downs are frequent at these numbers.

AgeApe47 Jive Dadson
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:46am


Jim says they are derived mathematically and come from Jesse Livermore. Regarding these numbers if you back check them, they are a range of about + or - $20 bucks. Gold trading back and forth over 1650 for a week before heading north to the 1764 range where it now hovers (smack downs are frequent at these numbers.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:48am

Gold depletion, miners going up?

Got that feeling that gold and silver miners will do well today!!


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