Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 9, 2011 - 11:05pm

...and read a good book about

...and read a good book about it while you still can buy stuff off the internet:

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:07pm

Glad I could

Glad I could help Ginger, now lets go get'em.

Be well

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:08pm

....I'm suddenly feeling like

....I'm suddenly feeling like I did that day in 5th grade ...the day I went to school with a fever and was so out of it all day and during class changes at one point I wandered into the boys bathroom by mistake only to be met with loud cheers and laughter. .........This room seems to be heavily weighted with boyz suddenly. ...... lol. ..I'll leave you to your ..ahem.. small talk.

goodnight all!

Jasper Puddlemaker SilverTree
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:10pm

@ SilverTree

"How much longer until SHTF?"

It already has.

Or are you referring to this stage of SHTF?:

Video unavailable
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:11pm

the harder you press it down, the higher it'll go

Thanks Turd, I appreciate your insight!

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:12pm

Seems Dan has some company in

Seems Dan has some company in his thought process about the FED language..

With that good evening

cpnscarlet aurum argentum
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:13pm

Bed Blythe??????

She's a flat-chested scarecrow. Not for 5 way.

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:24pm

Who's a werewolfe?

So here's the deal.. Someone sent this to me via email.

It's worth a laugh, or consideration, or perhaps someone should just refill my drink.

Oh, hey, by the way, what do you know - full moon Saturday August 13th.

Have a good evening everyone... and will someone please refill this drink! ;)

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:29pm

Hat tips to you, Turd

I'm with you on the silver road, Turd. Good luck to all!

NC Fred
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:30pm

Stink bid


Love your call of $44 by Labor Day. But I know if I buy here at 38+ plus there will surely be a beat down. Since I'm on leverage those beatdowns are pretty scary.

Maybe a stink bid at $37.60? Then again, Palin says wait for $36, lol.

Decisions, decisions....

Old Major
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:34pm

$44 silver by Labor Day would

$44 silver by Labor Day would be a beautiful thing. Thx for the positive news and update on silver prices. Good way to end the day.

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:38pm

Interesting. Wynter Benton

Interesting. Wynter Benton gave Jes Staley a fortnight for a particular answer this past Sunday evening. I'm just saying this two week time frame that the Turd has pointed out might be related to an increase in the silver price. I'm still trying to figure out the Ken Lewis reference and thermonuclear.

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:38pm

A dire way this could play out on gold in the near term.

The EE has their plan to snatch away the available wealth.

The smart safe haven buyers have to take what little money they have left and buy gold. When they look at the price of physical gold they are sticker shocked and easily talked into making back some of their lost wealth by leveraging. A trick known all to well to attract the scared and greedy. And with CME recently reducing the gold margin the trap is set. Why take only half of a fools money when you can take it all? The unsuspecting buy gold stocks with leverage trying to protect all that they have left and then JP Morgan rings through their brain indicating gold will rise to $2500.00. A touch of greed and a smidge of over leveraging. AHHH, now stir for a few moments, timing is everything. The CME watches to see when the incoming crowd of new sheep have slowed and then with timing correlated with the attack on $1764.00 gold the margin raising will begin. Mind you the CME and their cronies will be poised with all they have to cover the gold shorts that day as they shred the pockets of the sheeple.

And all the souls that will have not the money to cover the increase will loose and the price of gold will drop protecting the $1764.00 grail. The masses are left destined to find a hand to feed them. Enter Barry O'Bottom

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:42pm

Doug Kass: Stock Market Put in 2011 Low on Monday

My last read, tough getting rest these days lol


TheGoodDoctor Colonel Angus
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:44pm

@Colonel Angus Just because

@Colonel Angus Just because the ECB is buying bonds doesn't mean the problem has gone away in Europe. Seriously, the news cycle has been such that there is a weekly ping pong match between Europe and America.

I mean last week/this week it has been both. To the point where even the Euro leaders on Holiday had to come back and do some work. Give it another week or two and something will go wrong again.

manufacturedopinion ginger
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:46pm

Beatdown re: your edit

@ginger: Yeah ... big rally coming in my crystal ball for sure. In the meantime, is it just me or does anybody else see gold possibly touching either the 50 dma (1570 or so) or, God forbid, bouncing off of the 200 dma (1450?) during this (continuing) beatdown ??

In the trading account (in addition to being long silver on many levels) I TOOK OUT PUTS ON GLD TODAY (!??!), which is probably simply blasphemy, I know.

It's just that, well, you know ... JPM basically JUST TOLD all the sheeple to BUY gold, which, well, you know ... means THEY'RE WANTING TO SELL the damn stuff at the moment (anybody here old enough to remember May 1st? Heheheh). Let's see if that idiotic line of thinking doesn't get me in trouble - again.

Those puts are already down 2 points (great start!), but if the playbook looks anything like May 1st, I might be able to just ease out of that position down 5 (more) points (from here), 10 (more) and 15 (more), selling 1/3rd of the position at each stop and just hit it out of the park !!

Then, of course, buy more physical.

Actually, I kinda hope it doesn't come to that. The WHOLE WORLD might burn down if it does.

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:47pm

thank you

Great stuff Turd, very well thought out and presented. Right or wrong you are a very good guide thru the wilderness of the Crimex.

I still have trouble believing in the importance of trendline breaks which always feel arbitrary and silly to me. That first chart on Gold I just think that it is inevitable that the trendline break regardless of whether gold continues up or no. Nothing in nature is that precise. But i understand that techies love to sell with those breaks or the algos do and so I submit to the presentation. Nonetheless, I enjoy actually buying the breaks and the weakness but maybe thats just be.

best to everyone,

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:48pm
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:50pm


Interesting how that closeup of Blythe shows a prematurely aging woman who obviously grinds her teeth at night. Nothing remotely sexual or sensual about her at all. Quite unattractive actually.

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:52pm

Say, I have been kind of out

Say, I have been kind of out of it today. I remember someone saying there was a good Jim Rickards interview on one of the financial channels today? Anyone know which one? Or have a linky poo?

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:54pm

Weekly Head and shoulders in silver

Jesse's chart on weekly silver shows a H&S pattern with the right shoulder just formed over the last two days. Silver should take off up from here.

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:59pm

Full moon birthday this year

"Straight-up" Margarita said "Oh, hey, by the way, what do you know - full moon Saturday August 13th."

Will be 53 on Saturday, didn't know I'd be partying under a full moon. With Patron Silver (of course).

It should be a howl, and oh boy, things could get.....well...hairy. Full Moon Fever.

maravich44 TheGoodDoctor
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:59pm

Wynter Benton @ The Good Doctor

Doc, I've been following this also and my take is that the Ken Lewis ref is that hes suddenly gone. Irrelevant, a non-factor in this whole debacle and other's may well suffer the same fate. ..... T o clarify, I think her point is "We can take you out".

Turdle GG
Aug 9, 2011 - 11:59pm

Silverwealth et al

Let's analyze investments, not photos of women (or men)

Aug 10, 2011 - 12:00am


Many of you know my posts on miners. Typically I maintain a relatively conservative outlook due to their manipulation. That just changed. Super bullish outlook with a monster move coming during the next three to five months....accumulate your favs and HOLD on.

Aug 10, 2011 - 12:13am

Sold an AU Eagle at 1 pm PST !

They gave me $25 over spot, which was $1762 at the time, netting me $1787 ! They were very busy and I heard one guy wanting to buy $50,000 worth of PMs ! Don't worry Monedas 2011 is not cashing in his chips ! Don't buy to sell......hoard to spend !

Aug 10, 2011 - 12:15am

Blue Wind

Jeff Beck - Blue Wind
TheGoodDoctor maravich44
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:23am

@maravich44 Ok I kinda

@maravich44 Ok I kinda thought that too but I was wondering what else it could entail. Did Staley do some kind of crap job on a merger like Lewis did? Seems like Staley is no longer in the running for CEO from what I researched.

Whistleblower maybe? Just to burn a bridge on the way out? I don't know. What is the question that Wynter Benton are waiting for the answer of? That is what I am curious about.

The latin phrase is something like "A man thinks what he desires" something like that. He desires the CEO position. Interesting nonetheless.

Biochar ¤
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:26am

Beck is...

perhaps the world's greatest expressive guitarist. Right up there with Hendrix in my book. YouTube a few Yardbirds vids for kicks.

Aug 10, 2011 - 12:36am

One Of These Days

Pink Floyd - One Of These Days


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)