10 11 12

Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - 11:25am

Since this day only comes around once every 100 years, we might as well start another "Hat Contest"!!

As hard as it is to believe, one month from today we will celebrate our 2-year anniversary. Where has the time gone?? As legend has it...It was on 11/11/10 when, over lunch, MrsF suggested that I listen to the readers of ZH and start my own blog. "It's easy to do", she said. "Whaddayagottolose?", she asked. So, off we went, into the abyss. For old time's sake, here is post #1:


Which was soon followed by this:


(Only two posts in and we were already talking about "The Evil Empire" and "collapsing the Comex".) The battle continues to this day. Though their demise has taken longer than expected, it has only grown more certain.

To that end...The Hat Contest. Let's have three this time. Since 11/11/12 is a Sunday, let's go with the 11/9/12 closing prices of the Dec12 silver, the Dec12 gold and the Dec12 crude.

There will likely be three, separate winners but, if anyone can catch lightning in a bottle and predict all three, I'll fish a silver eagle out of the pond out back and pass it along, too. I'll clearly need some help with this so I'll need a volunteer to compile all the guesses on a spreadsheet. (This kind person gets a hat, too.)

So, have at it. Let's use the comments of this thread for the guesses. I'll close the thread tomorrow morning when I post the next update.

Back to the action at hand....The Pig rolled over earlier today and the metals began to catch a bid. We were set up for a strong open on the Comex and we got it. Sadly, the party was cut short by another completely bogus and bullshit BLS report. This time it was the weekly jobless claims. Why do I say bogus and BS? Because the BLS clearly states that "one large state failed to report some quarterly figures". So, rather than issuing an accurate report, the BLS gleefully releases an incomplete report that generates a headline of "Lowest Initial Claims Number Since 2008".


Again, not that this is real. It's based on incomplete data and will just need to be revised next week but, by then, who will care? Just when President O'Bottom needs some positive news to hang his hat on, he gets it! And, what do you want to bet that the "large state" in question is Illinois??? (Thanks to Jim Comiskey for pointing that out earlier.)


Whatever, the report was incentive enough to repel the metals from breaking resistance. Silver, in particular, was right on the doorstep with a high of $34.38 just before the data was released. What is nice, though, was that the selling was brief and really wasn't all that steep. This has led the metals to subsequently recover and, therefore, all is not lost.

And when we look at the longer-term charts, we can clearly see the overall strength of the metals. First, check out these 2-hour charts. Note that the sharp declines from Friday have played themselves out and the metals have now found support and rallied. Maintaining our footing today should set us up for a strong finish to the week tomorrow.

Now look at these 12-hour charts. Though The Bad Guys have been valiant in their attempts to contain price post-QE∞, they are clearly playing a losing game. Pressure simply continues to build against them and, the longer they artificially restrain price, the more powerful the explosion will be once their resistance fails. Just like April 2011 in silver when price ran from $38 to $48. Just like August 2011 in gold when price ran from $1650 to $1920. When The Cartels are forced to retreat and painfully cover misbegotten shorts, the short-term price moves can be...shall we say...dynamic.

So, that's all for today. It already almost lunchtime so I think I'll wrap it up right here. Have a great day and let's look forward to a solid Friday. Good luck with the contest!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 11, 2012 - 7:07pm

It's the 1812 Overture Admiral A!

Can I amend my guess? Gold1814.14

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:08pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:09pm

$36.8 Silver $1825 Gold $98.5

$36.8 Silver

$1825 Gold

$98.5 Crude :)

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:27pm

contest guess

silver- 37.12

gold- 1817.17

crude- 104.80

thinking positive, so if I win all 3, I will keep the first for moi, give the second to my grandson, and donate the third for a silent auction at the next local women's club annual meeting which you know will be the high selling item of the evening. I hope it goes to breast cancer research. ( He ist givink Za Big Vink now.)

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:33pm

Yellow Hat

Gold: 1925.13

Silver: 38.13

Oil: 100.13

Short Stack
Oct 11, 2012 - 7:33pm

Hi all.

Sorry to be only lurking lately. Busy, busy these days. Seems I barely get started catching up on the posts when the phone rings or someone walks into the shop. Been selling safes for the most part. Lots of people worried about theft.

If this keeps up I should have my mortgage paid off by years end. ~crossing fingers ~

So, another hat contest aye. I'll have another go.

Ag $35.48

Au $1812.42

Crude $109.90

And good luck to all. This prediction stuff is never easy especially when TPTB get wind of it.

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:36pm

Re: A worrisome chart to consider

Re: A worrisome chart to consider - Posted above by DPH

That is a problematic chart .. I see that we only have 20-30 years of Tungsten remaining. That is exceptionally bad news for the Central Banks.

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:45pm

Was it a deal?

JPM gets a slap on the wrist, re Bear Stearn, and JPM gets to keep flushing the small spec's on the CRIMEX. Sweet ....


Oct 11, 2012 - 7:52pm


Stuff We All Get

Advertising crap handed out by commercial interests at events.

Is Obama the "SWAG" president?

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:58pm


AG $29.70

Au $1681.00

Oil $83.50

Oct 11, 2012 - 7:59pm


Is there an easy way to create an avatar? I'm computer challenged.

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:00pm


Oil 100

Gold 1844

Silver 42.10

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:06pm


Silver @ $23.99

Gold @ $1629.50

Oil @ $249

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:18pm

@wildlife series

Antelope Hands down! Each series in the wildlife mint is limited.

i believe it's only 1,000,000 each.

the first two( the wolf and the grizzly) have got big premiums now and are scarce when trying to source in quantity.

if you can get pronghorn antelope at same premium as maples then it's a no brainier IMO.

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:26pm


Silver: $29.84

Gold $1610.40

Crude: $84.10

The man who stole a leopard
Oct 11, 2012 - 8:27pm

hat in hand

Gold: $1694.99 (BTFD)

Silver: $32.12

Oil: $100.01

Facebook: $17.55

Presidential Election Winner: Not the US Citizen

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:29pm

11/9/12 Closing

Gold 1915.00

Silver 38.69

Oil 115.23

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:33pm

Ron Paul: Romney & Obama owned by Goldman Sachs

Ron Paul Refuses to Endorse Romney - CNBC 10/11/2012
Ferd Torgerson
Oct 11, 2012 - 8:34pm

Dang, Turd. Joined the Discussion too Late

I was busy all day working on a house my daughter is trying to get ready to sell. Based on my current rate of progress, we should have the house on the market some time next June.

Upon checking out the current thread, was distressed that you were already into five pages of guesses. Have no idea what set of numbers would qualify as unique without logging all the guesses and finding a gap.

What to do?

My best solution is to tag along with California Lawyer’s guesses and raise each of his estimates by a penny. Here are my guesses:

Silver: $37.01

Gold: $1850.01

Oil: $115.01

I realize that I could have singled out any other participant and done the same with their guesses. However, I see this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, if successful, to screw a lawyer out of something.

Hope he doesn’t take having the shoe on the other foot personally.


Oct 11, 2012 - 8:42pm

1920 - gold 37 - silver 101 -

1920 - gold

37 - silver

101 - oil

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:48pm


That was really weird, two metals at one time??? Anyway I think the system is going to burn soon!!

And I think someone was attacking it. Just might be a sign to come.

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:49pm


Silver- $33.34

gold- $1724.23

oil- $87.89

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:51pm

nice job and congrats GM

a warm welcome to our newest stacker!!!!!

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:53pm

That glitch today

Earlier today, many of us saw on Market Watch and elsewhere that peculiar algo spike in gold, silver and crude. I read on ZH earlier that they also made comment of it.

I thought initially that maybe it was a MW computer error in how they displayed their prices online at the time but it appears that it was viewable on NetDania also. I didn't realize those charts or prices were straight from Comex.

Soooo....we either have a algo program that went slightly wild that didn't disrupt trading at all from anything I've read and I'm kind of wondering why not? Didn't everybody see it or did they know it was messed up and then used some other charts of the respective markets at the time the glitch was underway?

I'm just asking out of curiosity about how that would've worked out (no delay or market effect) and what that glitch was all about. I guess it's probably a software issue or something explainable (HFT algo programs for those 3 commodities were changed for what's about to happen after the election???) but it was curious that it was in those 3 commodities that we follow closely. I hope someone kept track of those numbers so we can check them in the future when it might actually happen.

One thing that has crossed my mind is what we hear about all the time...cyber attack. With a full blown currency and cyber war going on it might be possible it was something else (albeit briefly) yet highly noticeable? Have certain Govts. and their banking counterparts selectively infected some of the worlds banking and securities market computer systems on purpose or is it just a recent example of how volatile and stressed out the integrated systems are and glitches like this merely happen?

It doesn't seem far-fetched to at least consider that some Govt. or banking organization is messing with our U.S. Comex or other trading platforms and messing with things as they spy and hack info from those systems. We hear of banks and companies (and even Iranian nuke plants) that get viruses and go offline (or blow up) that cause all kinds of turmoil overseas.

It would stand to figure that it's inevitable or has already happened over here and that some people or countries would love to reciprocate against us if given the chance or the means to do so. So maybe todays 'glitch' wasn't anything like that but merely a domestic HFT algo program readjustment and nothing more that tipped it's hand that it's present in the system and 'working' in the background.

Either way, both scenarios are indicative I believe of something very screwed up that will show itself (post election) by early 2013 if it's a domestic tinkering of the programs or something major could happen at any given time if it's something imported from abroad against the U.S. or any other Western banking structure or platform. A financial cyber attack or sabotage doesn't seem far-fetched given what's going on in the world right now.

No matter what, something is seriously messed up in the globally integrated markets/banking computer system and today's glitch that percolated up in those charts may have been the tip off to what the future might hold....crazy volatility and then freezing up.....or shut down.

Any thoughts?

Oct 11, 2012 - 8:55pm


BHO will be a swaggart, a fallen preacher

Silver Alert
Oct 11, 2012 - 9:02pm


I would imagine that gold is not on the chart as so little of it is actually used up that current supplies would last practically forever.

Oct 11, 2012 - 9:05pm

The Guitar/Pusher Man

Bread - The Guitar Man (Lyrics)
The Pusher
Oct 11, 2012 - 9:11pm

DPH ...

Perhaps the glitch today is reflective of the shadow derivative banking system. The prices stated are the true prices that must be paid out? Who really knows?

Oct 11, 2012 - 9:16pm


1st question clear win by Ryan in my thinking.

He is more energetic and clear spoken than I had expected, as well as aggressive. Let's see how he does now that Joe is counterattacking. I'm not too impressed with Joe so far though.

edit: Ryan now seems too eager to belabor the Libya issue, after clearly winning it. Should have not gone back to it. He is perhaps talking too much for his own good.

Thats all from me on this, for tonight.

Over & out.

Oct 11, 2012 - 9:16pm

20% Managed ascent...

Silver - $34.54

Gold - $1872.72

Oil - $91.51

Edit: *Jedi hand wave* That was not $24.54 you just saw.


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