Please Read This Extremely Important Post

I hope you're ready. Everything that has transpired since May in silver and September in gold has led us to this moment. The next five to seven trading days will tell us everything. Either the metals will win their individual Battles Royale or they won't. If they win, price will accelerate to the upside. If they fail, the metals will likely settle into another sideways consolidation that lasts well into spring. I, for one, can't wait to find out!

So, let's get started. First, in case you missed it, here's a re-print of a comment I posted yesterday afternoon about the continuing increase of open interest in the metals:

"For yesterday, gold rose $15 and the April12 contract rose by 6,500 contracts to 264,250. Here's something interesting: The June12 OI fell by 1800 to 62,263. Hmmm. Total OI rose by over 4000 to 470,255.

You'll recall that yesterday was a big day for silver and also the day that the March options expired. First day notice is just 4 days away but March12 OI fell by just 3,600 contracts to 21,393. The May12 picked up a lot of rollovers and new money and grew by nearly 8,000 contracts to 49,471, a 20% increase in one day! Total silver OI is now 115,874 and that level is the highest its been since August of last year."

A short time later, I posted this comment, right after this week's CoT was released:

"Remember that massive OI jump during the rally on Tuesday? It was +17,000 contracts Tuesday alone and for the reporting period, the total OI rose a massive 25,000.

Well, we just found out how. Total spec long grew by 14,000 but the Cartel net short grew by 20,000! They are about to drop the hammer or get their nuts squeezed off.

Considering that OI has expanded by over 14,000 contracts in the two sessions since, you can imagine that the spec net long has continued to increase while The Cartel net short has done the same.

Silver, too. OI rose by 6000 contracts as the EE net short rose by 1900 and spec longs rose by 2100.

At first glance, this all just confirms that the stage for The Battle Royale has been set. We are up against it technically and the CoT shows that The Cartels are getting up against it from a net short perspective. Next week promises to be wild. Get ready."

Before we get to the charts and discuss the technical importance of this upcoming week, let's dive into that CoT a bit and look at some history for perspective. First, gold.

The CoT does indeed show a massive expansion of spec longs. 14,000 contracts! That's a lot of new money. It also shows that The Cartel supplied the new paper to those spec longs as The Cartel added 20,000 new shorts. The question is, as always, why do The Forces of Darkness do this? Are they:

  1. Flooding the market with fresh, unbacked paper gold because they are trying to cap price, suck in weak-handed longs and preparing for a massive raid through which they will profit?   OR
  2. Is the bullion bank cartel simply performing their duty as a market maker? The specs demanded 14,000 contracts this week. Without a brand new, unbacked Cartel short on the other side of the trade, price would have had to have risen to the point where a current long was ready to sell. What would that price have be to in order to pair 14,000 contracts?

Have the bullion banks profited for years by naked shorting the PM "markets" and then initiating waterfall declines into which they can cover and profit. ABSOLUTELY! Is that what they're doing here? I don't think so. As I've repeatedly stated, I believe that The Cartels were completely freaked out and frightened by the events of 2011 and they have spent the last 10 months manipulating PM prices in an attempt to minimize and/or extricate themselves from their perennial short positions. What they didn't expect was $2T in fresh global liquidity in the past 90 days. As I laid out yesterday, everything is going higher, just like during overt QE2. Throw $2T around and it spills everywhere. Crude, gold, beans, cattle, copper...everywhere! The race higher is unfolding so quickly that The Cartels have been left with no other choice but to maintain their roles as market maker. Like the Specialists of old on the NYSE, The Cartels must take the "offer" side of the trade when things get disorderly to the upside, just like they must supply a bid when things are disorderly to the downside. (Though, during coordinated raids, The Cartels have obviously been reluctant to aggressively supply that bid.)

So, here we are. $2T with more to come are flooding the markets with liquidity and The Cartels are getting painted into the same corner they found themselves in last year. What will they do? Attack, of course! That's what they have always done and so you can imagine that an attack will be their first course of action here, too. But can they? Seriously...can they? Take a moment and consider the global investment landscape at this exact moment. Even if you had unlimited funds, would you want to continue building a huge net short position in the metals right now? I don't think so. And you'd have to greatly increase your short position to initiate an attack. No...I don't think they're going to attack, at least not in the massive, coordinated style to which we've grown accustomed.

Their only real option is to attempt to continue "managing" the demand. This means they will continue to create paper when demand is heavy and they will attempt to cover some shorts on every selloff. In an environment like that, you'd expect a steady, increasing, predictable price channel where demand remains constant and forces price higher within a channel of higher highs (demand surges) and higher lows (Cartel covering into selloffs). Hmmm. Do you think the environment I just described would look anything like these charts once you plotted all of the price action graphically?


So, how long can these price trends continue? As discussed in yesterday's post, from a fundamental standpoint the firehose of liquidity that is currently flooding the global markets shows no sign of slowing. The question then becomes, how long can The Gold and Silver Bullion Banking Cartels continue to provide the unbacked paper metal necessary to manage the ascent of price? Are they already stretched to the limit like they were last April in silver and last September in gold? If so, we can expect imminent attacks and margin hikes. For answers, let's consult some past CoT reports to see if we can gain some perspective. (For simplicity's sake, I'll start with the gross numbers.)

SPEC LONG                 2/22/11        4/5/11         8/2/11       9/6/11        10/4/11           2/21/12                     

Silver                                50,937          48,890        38,265      37,185        23,859            34,819

Gold                                 246,967       259,792       291,974     248,457     180,635          214,343

As you can plainly see, spec long positions in both gold and silver are still well below their peak levels in April and September, respectively. Additionally, though up considerably from the lows of Q4 2011, these markets are not yet "overbought", at least terms of market participation and liquidity. Now, let's look at The Cartel shorts.

BANK SHORT              2/22/11       4/5/11        8/2/11        9/6/11        10/4/11           2/21/12

Silver                                 89,728         89,827        75,029      77,869         58,807            70,923

Gold                                  389,757        415,992     442,648     401,815       345,040         375,306

Just as plainly, from a gross perspective, Cartel shorts are nowhere near the levels they were when silver and gold were making their respective highs last year. To me, this indicates that The Cartels have plenty of "ammo" still available from a paper supply standpoint. But, we have to look at the net numbers, too:

BANK NET (short-long)   2/22/11       4/5/11       8/2/11        9/6/11        10/4/11            2/21/12

Silver                                       57,793         56,414      44,588       47,216         18,923               39,188

Gold                                        234,804      258,665    287,634     227,714      164,751             229,302

As you probably expected, the net short position also shows that The Cartels have plenty of room to grow here as they are nowhere near the extreme levels attained at the price peaks last year. Other things to note from this data:

  1. From 2/22/11 to 4/5/11, silver rose from roughly $33 to $40 but the large spec long and Cartel net short positions barely budged. Why? The small specs drove the market as their net long position rose from 18,000 to 54,000. That's a triple of the small spec net long in 6 weeks.
  2. But it wasn't the specs that caused the panic, it was the EE. From 4/5/11 to 4/26/11, price rose from $40 to $48 but the large and small spec net position were both declining. However, over those three weeks, the EE net short position contracted by an amazing 14,000 contracts! The EE panicked, pure and simple.
  3. At that point, The CME stepped in and raised margins 5 times in 9 days.
  4. From 8/2/11 to 9/6/11, gold rose from roughly $1650 to $1900. Though the media and the know-nothing paid disinformation agents of The Cartel would have you believe that this was a speculative "bubble", the numbers tell a much different story. Over this time period, the large spec net long position declined by almost 25% from 247,175 to 184,371 and the small spec net long only increased by an insignificant 3,000 contracts, rising from 40,459 to 43,343.
  5. Again, this "panic" was caused by a cartel, The Gold Cartel. From 8/2/11 to 9/6/11, price rose $250 as the net short position of The Gold Cartel declined by a whopping 60,000 contracts, falling from 287,634 to 227,714. What happened to instigate this panic? The S&P downgrade of U.S. debt on 8/5/11.
  6. At that point, central bank intervention drove gold lower in the wee hours of 9/6/11 and the raid was on. The CME also conspired to raise margins in gold, too, thereby increasing the selling pressure.

All that history notwithstanding, it's clear to me that we are still in the early stages of this rally. With this history as our guide, PM prices will continue to ascend in two legs. This first leg is the ongoing expansion of large and small spec net long positions. These numbers will probably continue to grow until they begin to reach the levels attained in April and September of last year. The second leg will be another Cartel panic leg where prices rapidly surge to the upside. Since I think we are still in the middle stages of Leg #1 and, since global liquidity should only continue to surge, I just don't see a huge risk of a coordinated C/C/C smashdown at the current time.

That said, we can't be complacent, either. The charts are at a very significant juncture and silver lease rates are scary-low so a raid, particularly in silver, cannot be ruled out. Ignore the silver lease rate chart below at your peril. I don't think it's a direct indicator of an impending raid but even Stevie Wonder can see the obvious correlation between the last two forays into deeply negative territory and steep price selloffs.


And now here are your charts. As you can see, we are now at the Battle Royale...the points at which gold and silver will either be forced to reverse or they will overcome this last line of resistance and charge higher. My point in dissecting all of the CoT data was to help you see why I feel that the Battles Royale are going to be won not lost and that, after a likely period of serious volatility over the next 5-7 trading days, gold and silver will begin accelerating higher. First, here are your gold charts showing the same view but from different angles.



And here are your silver charts. Note that silver is fighting two technical battles. There is the horizontal resistance from the recovery highs of late October (35.50) and there is also diagonal resistance from the down-sloping trendline connecting the highs of April and September (about $36). When silver is able to move through and close above both of these two lines, it will be off to the races for a while as there won't be much resistance until price reaches $40.



In closing, let me just say that I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I did writing it. It's not exactly how I intended to blow my Saturday but I felt it was imperative to get this information to you today so that you could study it before Monday. The next 5-7 trading days are very, very important and if you don't approach them with a plan, you will instead be prone to acting on your emotions and, as we all should know by now, letting your emotions get the best of you is about the only way you will lose fiat money trading gold and silver in this remarkable, continuing bull market.

Keep the faith. Be patient. Have courage. Believe in yourself. Prepare accordingly.



OrangeAlert's picture

Silver Lease Rates

First, I hope it's ok I stole your chart up there was nicely done and right can moderate the post if you want, I'd understand.  I'm just thinking out loud here....

I don't know what it is about that silver lease rate chart....  For one, the other times the lease rates went into this level it was by quick, large moves down to -.40 territory.  This time it's a much more steady decline.  Second, the declines came AFTER it looked like silver could/would break to the upside out of the pennant formation at major resistance.  

Maybe that's their thing, they are preemptively keeping the lease rates low to keep silver from getting crazy to the upside, and at the same time, getting ready to drop the hammer as silver approaches the resistance, then WHAM.  But the lease rates where they are now doesn't seem as scary.  I think because the other times, silver momentum was declining and the COT numbers were falling from high levels.  This time it's the reverse.  The bottom from Dec is in, now it's gaining in momentum and the COT numbers are increasing and we're going through previous resistance levels.

We are at a pretty important technical point right now as this post dictates, and that is when the previous lease rates dropped.  So by all means, I'm prepared for them to drop the hammer to keep silver in check for another few months, but like you said above, I  don't know how they could with everything else going up.


lakemike49's picture

I for one want to say thanks

Thank you TURD, for taking the time and effort, to break these things down, down to the point that even a guy like me has a better idea of understanding, what may or may not happen. when I play the paper side of PM's I try to gather as much info as possible, you make your info understandable to me. I got the shit kicked out of me, last april--may on silver, I don't want that to happen again. nothing is guaranteed in this game, but having your info break downs, helps alot. why I continue to play this game against stacked odds, only god knows, but as a wise man once told me, two tears in a bucket if you can't swim well mother f-ck it.


Turd Ferguson's picture

good work, but


you need to also draw one big pennant that has an upper boundary of connecting the tops and a lower boundary of the trend from December.

Once again, lease rates are falling just as silver is threatening to break out of a pennant.


Response to: Silver Lease Rates's picture

Silver to Move on Greek Bailout

I'm expecting silver to continue to trade against with the Euro and on how the Greek bailout progresses. There's got to be some sort of snag that will pull silver back before pushing it back up when the bailout gets finalized.

redwood's picture

Thanks for the post

Thanks for the post Turd, hope you keep at least tomorrow for your down time.  Trouble is, it's SUNDAY,  the dreaded "S" word. No real time for idle minds right now.

Just want to say if the 4 predominant shorts are dictating the market, I would think they will hold out a little longer.  After all the metals have not yet had a spectacular run.  Also, these manipulated events must be couched in realtime events in order to persuade the public.  There's a lot brewing right now, but nothing has matured.  Not Europe, not the ME, even China is benignly and contemplatively sitting in the shadows, or at least that's how they like to be perceived.  I'll be surprised if anything shows up in the next few days.  On the other hand, I may be eating my words by tomorrow night.  Who knows?

ouchtouch's picture

Thanks Turd for the awesome

Thanks Turd for the awesome analysis.  I'm still keeping a lot of dry powder for when Europe implodes.  There is no Greece rescue deal and there never will be.  Over the next few weeks the idiot markets will realize that.

Ircsum's picture

Great post, Turd!

Very informative & educational, so very much appreciated. We're in a Donald Rumsfeld world of known knowns, known unknowns & unknown unknowns. Although the EE knows what will happen in the short term, all Turdites know what the longer term has in store for the PMs - that's something I can live with. yes

Fred Hayek's picture

Does the cartel still have the same freedom of action?

Does the cartel still have the same freedom of action that they had last May and last September?  As a poster noted in another thread, it's doubtful that the CME can play the 5 margin raises in two weeks game again.  "And if we raise margins another 10%, how many of you drop out?  . . . Okay, and if we raise them another 10 %, how many of you drop out?"

Then, there's the terrible perception they created with the MF'ing Corzine fraud.  To flagrantly play games again would be very reckless.  And dovetailing with the need to keep up some sort of pretense of fair play is the coming PAGE, Pan Asian Gold Exchange.  

If you're running the only hot dog stand in town and you see that another one's about to open in a couple months, it's not very good business to get cited for a series of health code violations, particularly not at that time.

If you're running the only bank in a small town and you see that another one's under construction and due to open in a couple months, it would be rather inopportune, at that time, to be perceived as having cheated your customers.

Isn't that where the Comex stands?  It's the hot dog purveyor that was previously accused of peddling e coli laced dogs to the public, the bank where people have shouted that items have been stolen from their safe deposit boxes.  The new hot dog stand, the new bank is opening in June.  Do they really dare sell tainted food or rifle through the safe deposit boxes again just before the ribbon is cut on the shiny new facility across town?  

Be Prepared's picture

Turd - Hits a Home Run!

and it's out of the park!  Thanks for an amazing and thorough post!

I told you ..... I am feeling rather "imagey"..... :-)

Dr Durden's picture

Mod deletes

I see there was some ninja editing because of something someone said. Great. But I think it would help if the rest of the comments pertaining to it were canned also. Thanks.

italstar's picture

cup and handle

Hey just wanted to mention the cup and handle formation that is now confirmed with volume. Was brought to my attention from David Morgan.

GoldMania3000's picture


Now that's an analysis Turd. That's something I can take..deep thinking. You've been promoted..I get it...

Bobbejaan's picture

@ Be Prepared

Don't Look into My Eyes!

It's too late, Ethel!

..... IM--HO--TEP ..... IM--HO--TEP ..... IM--HO--TEP ..... IM--HO--TEP wink

GoldMania3000's picture

This seems reasonable too.

Dave morgan, has been good in his analysis last year.  Actually, I didn't' like his analysis last year because it wasn't what I wanted to hear, but he was right.  So here's his recent look...

SRV - ES339's picture

Lease rate question Turd

Great post today!

The chart speaks for itself regarding Sept and Dec... just wondering about the huge May raid, as the rates were quite high. Any ideas, or is it simply that the lease rate is just the latest game... can't stay on one too long or the sheep may catch on!


Turd Ferguson's picture

Do you mean this one?



Response to: cup and handle
Groaner's picture

NIce work Turd!

Who can figure what they will do.

I personally think they will try and hack off at least $1.00 to $1.50 off silver and $30-$40 off gold.. 

There will be lots of buyers there waiting.

Dr Durden's picture

COT reports

I heard "Ranting" Andy Hoffman say in an interview the other day something to the effect that he's been watching the COT positions the cartel has taken for years and he sees zero (0) association to price action. In other words, he feels the Morgue will always be short no matter what and it doesn't make a difference when or how they decide to take it down. At least that's how I registered his comments.

He also mentioned the role of the POSX in the price of silver and, to much my delight, said it is also a useless metric.

Yeah baby. 

I honestly don't think the we're at the dividing line quite yet. If silver takes out the overhead trendline and holds $35, the real challenge will be to take and hold ~$37.25 as support as that's the 61.8% move from the bottom as well as the level that served as support last summer before it was completely ignored during the Smackdown Part Deux in Sept, 2011. I think if traders feel this beast can regain most of what was taken, they'll be a lot more confident about $50. Remember, it's not just the Cartel at work here. 61.8% may just be the point where they finally say "fine, oookay okaaaay already!"

And if history repeats, the $21 level comes into play around September of this year (also a point of seasonal weakness). Must. Think. Big. Picture.

ivars's picture

DJIA prediction chart trying include QE's effects-15000

This is a total turnaround away from approach in  my previous unsuccessful DJIA prediction charts:

Very roughly, both in time and value, this prediction chart tries to take into account QE's effect on stock prices and applies the noticeable (in comparison with 1929 gold standard stock market prices) formation of super-exponential relative price growth of DJIA now and formation of a characteristic log-periodic pre-crash formation in that difference (second chart):


Also here:

If this is truly taking into account QE's (incl. next ones) , it might explain why all my previous attempts to predict DJIA crash earlier were unsuccessful. They did not take QE's into account, obviously. But QE's are all about propping up stock prices to create Bernanke's "Wealth effect". There is even still growth in DJIA up to 15000 , a bubble crash point (may be after new QE's) before QE's positive effects on stock prices will  expire. DJIA should continue to drop further after March 2013 but I could not figure out how fast, so prediction stops there.

Not clear to me if this behavior fits with other rather extreme chart predictions that has been so far successful ( silver, gold),  and perhaps EUR/USD, USDX.

[Removed live link to saposjoint at admin's request. Please link only to image repositories. Mod. Jefferson]

GoldMania3000's picture

cup and handle

dave morgan also speaks about a cup and handle for silver too. he shows a long cup and handle from the past several months and he's bullish. 

redwood's picture


So good to see you back.  Nice charts....exactly what you expect in a presidential election year.... a bull like no other.  I guess Obama is in.  No point with all the expense of an election.

LOUP-GAROU's picture

Thanks Turd

Thanks Turd, great post! The EE is definitely  going to do everything in their power to be a price controller! Election year, our current WH tenant has his hands on the remote pushing buttons, trying to himself look good!

beach_bum's picture

Cartel dumps 102.5 million ounces of Silver

Thanks for a truly great post Turd. Apologies if this was posted already but posts on Brother John F's blog disappear quickly and you may not have seen it.

Cartel Dumps 102.5 Million Ounces of Paper Silver in 7 Minutes, Yet RAID FAILS!

photoIf you happen to need to take a trip to an NYC ER room tonight and experience an extraordinarily long wait, The Doc's about to explain why. 
Silver has put in a monster rally this week, and much to the cartel's dismay, was preparing to close the week above $35.50 today, preparing a break-out next week that could potentially fill the gap from the September smash to $40, and see silver off to the races back to challenge the all-time nominal highs near $50.  Obviously, the cartel stepped in with a massive paper raid to prevent such a bullish weekly close. 
That's where things got interesting and likely induced more than a few Myocardial Infarctions today among JPMorgan execs. 

Check out the following price and volume chart screen shot on this 1-minute silver chart courtesy NetDania. 
Notice the massive volume that began at approximately 14:47, with 4,000 paper contracts dumped on the market in a single minute, followed by 2,500, 1,800, 3,200, 3,000, 2,900, and 3,100 over the next 6 minutes. 

rest of article -

ivars's picture


With those long term charts there is even not much sense to bother others more often than once per month-and even that is too short term -UNTIL the action begins with prices moving fast. Can't wait for August to see if something of a bigger scale is going to happen or not.

Bagholder's picture

The Battle Royale

 While the correction in Gold since Sep has been deep enough in terms of price, 6 months just aint long enough in terms of Time. Uplegs require near universal apathy before beginning, and I don't believe that exists yet. Perhaps a failure the next couple of    weeks would shakeout some more weak hands. Still, long term this Gold Bull has made Important tops  in (sep 2011, nov 2009, mar 2008, may 2006, dec 2004). What's key is those tops are all 19-22 months apart.  This suggests, and I believe we will see - the next important top in Gold in spring of 2013. 

While I would love to see Gold breakout here , the reality is there will be boatloads more resistance at the September highs, than anywhere around $1775.  The EE & their Ministry of Truth won't be able to resist selling it off next time it reaches $1900, just too paint a doulble top.  Consequently, It doesn't seem like there is much room to rally from here the short term. I hope I am wrong, and its all blue sky from here. 

 Very Nice analysis TF on the COT's.  They are far more reliable than charts when trading commodities, because Structure is everything.  Keep up the good work sir,

gearhead's picture


post for me :-)  Great stuff Turd.  Been lurking for a couple months and learned allot with not much to add.  Till maybe now.

Fred Hayek you mention China.  Another poster mentioned a few days ago about the flat action after hours and felt weird.  I also noticed the lack of price movement over night.  PAGE coming on line...  China buying metals...  Recent netdania price action on silver that had large shorting and buying...

Maybe China is fed up wit the EE also and has decided not to buy during their market open only to have the price smacked down by the EE later.  Buying high.  From a tactical standpoint I don't even know what I am about to write can happen but here goes...

China knows high volatility can scare people out of the market, even their own citizens that have been taught to buy metals.  So instead of trading silver during their market open, they are waiting for EE smack down and then buying in the comex?  Smooth's the market and allows them to buy at a lower price.  Does that makes sense or do I need another Tito's  straight up?


DefiniteMaybe's picture

Great Analysis Turd

Great Analysis Turd. Thanks for taking the time to put this together and for the in-depth explanation.

Considering the Battle Royale at $35.50, have you seen the posting by SilverDoc ( regarding what looks like an attempted raid by The Cartel to keep prices below this level, but failed? The raid started yesterday at 2:45 EST and lasted for about 10 minutes.  At 14 minutes into this video:

, BrotherJohnF describes what happened with the potential takedown in silver prices. However, large buyers were on the other side of the trade which prevented the price from falling. Since prices hardly budged, one might have missed the raid unless you looked at the massive trading volume in that 10 minute period. With the massive injection of liquidity into the markets over the past 90 days, I wonder if The Cartel is losing their ability to manage the paper price of silver in a meaningful way.

Any thoughts on this?

SilverFocker's picture

Good stuff there Turd

I have a gut feeling this will be a wild ride for the next two weeks. There are so many potential Black Swan events that are at the tipping point of going either way without warning....One thing that is defiantly going to happen is I stack.

I have been holding back on a nice buy since the first of the year, mainly due to the euro situation. Today I went sniffing to see what was around......3 dealers, all with more gold than silver. This was not the norm from these guys. One needed cash so he dumped alot to the smelter and has not bought back ( was told next week), 2 had 3 tubes of 2012 SAE's @ 800 per, 3 had some 90% and a few random SAE's but no quantity ( said he got hammered in Dec ).

I walked away with 40 bucks of 90% and 5 1oz bars. From my thought of these parts around here, premium is continuing to rise in both metals, yet there is a switch from silver to gold, I guessing due to volatility and they are sticking to ASE's only for silver.

kn33bar's picture

Hello Turd, Have you seen

Hello Turd,

Have you seen this?

Cartel Dumps 102.5 Million Ounces of Paper Silver in 7 Minutes, Yet RAID FAILS!

Looks like the raid was repelled late Friday afternoon by another cartel.

cpnscarlet's picture

@beach_bum - we were

@beach_bum - we were discussing that movement in the charts this AM and most believe it didn't happen. It is assumed to be a data anomaly that Net-d showed in 1-min charts and nowhere else. However, BroJ went into it at length and the difference between his charts and some shown here is that the Net-d data DO NOT SHOW a low-range saturation like charts shown by others.

Folks - I spent many years reading satellite telemetry, both raw and processed, and have had many jobs trying to tell people where there was a data fault versus an actual system event. As I watch the data BroJ shows us, there is no data anomaly like in that the charts others put up here in the morning. The charts on the last thread show a low-range saturation - all samples flatten out at the same low level. In satellites, that means there's a problem with the instrumentation. BroJ charts don't shows that. There is a good spread in the bottoms of those nine candles which says the odds are that it is a real event.

I respect all opinions so far on this one, and I'm very perplexed. When I had to write a final report, the summary was always along the lines of "this is what probably happened, and the system died" as we tried to fit the telemetry data to the facts at the end. Hopefully in this case, price action over the next few days may point to a real answer.

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