Looking Ahead

Sat, Oct 6, 2012 - 12:56pm

Unfortunately, all the White-Out in the world wouldn't have been enough to hold back the BS of the BLS. So, after failing to get our breakout yesterday, we must regroup and reassess.

On the bright side the charts still look pretty clear and we'll get to them in a minute. First, we have to address the outrageous CoTs from yesterday.

Outrageous, disgusting and pathetic. These are just a few of the terms that could be used to describe the latest actions of The Cartels as well as the inaction of the CFTC. Despite all of the "good cop" bluster of "Thunderlips and Baldy", the remain collusive partners in crime and enablers of The Cartels. Here is the conclusive data:


Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $1602. Total Gold Cartel gross short position 291,358. Net short ratio 1.98:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: This is the Tuesday before the surprise announcement of QE∞. Price closed $1735. Total Cartel gross short position 380,239 (+30%). Net short ratio 2.66:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $1775. Total Cartel gross short position 405,520 (+7% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.98:1.


Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $27.85. Total EE gross short position 71,199. Net short ratio 1.49:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: Price closed $33.57. Total EE gross short position 79,478 (+11.6%). Net short ratio 2.47:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $34.67. Total EE gross short position 93,628 (+17.8% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.62:1.

Again, this is grotesque. In gold, The Cartel has doubled their net short ratio in this 6-week rally from $1602 to $1775, from roughly 2:1 to the current 3:1.

Silver is where the real outrage should lay. That the comically-ineffective CFTC has yet to conclude that manipulation exists is beyond belief. Not only did The Evil Empire (namely JPM) increase their gross short position by almost 12% during the initial rally pre-QE∞, they have sped up the issuance of unbacked paper by 50% in the days since! Note that, in the past three weeks alone, The EE has increased their gross short position by almost 18% to an unbelievably disgraceful 93,628 contracts. And, since the beginning of this rally, they have now increased their total net short position by 34,438 contracts for a change of +148%!!

Again, this is outrageous! In attempting to cap price and protect the buy-stops above $35.50, the EE has added 14,150 brand new paper short contracts in just the past three weeks. If forced to deliver and supply actual metal, this is the equivalent of 71,000,000 ounces of silver! Even using the worthless GFMS numbers, that's 10% of all silver to be mined in 2012! Again, the only word that comes to mind is outrageous.

<deep, calming breath>

<another one>

OK, please don't get discouraged, however. What these arrogant fools seemingly fail to understand is that their era has ended. Like a dinosaur across the planet from the Yucatan when the asteroid hit, they are continuing upon their merry way, unaware that the seeds of their destruction have already been sown. Physical demand plus other, pending extraordinary events will soon crush them. Patience, grasshoppah. You should be utilizing this time to continue padding your stack. You might also consider buying popcorn and other refreshments because, when this Cartel scheme finally collapses...and it soon will..the resulting fireworks show is going to spectacular.

Here are your charts for the week ahead. From the looks of it, we should probably expect 5 to 7 more trading days under this lousy cap. Time, however, is rapidly passing through The Witch's hourglass. Again, just be patient and you will be rewarded.

First, the clear technical rationale for the against-all-odds, desperate capping effort:

These 8-hour charts show the closing of longer-term "triangles":

And these RSI charts show that just a little more time may be needed to work off any remaining "over-bought" conditions:

So, that's all for now. I've nearly blown my entire Saturday morning putting this post together and I think it's time to go watch some football. I hope that you have a relaxing and fun weekend. More on Monday!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 8, 2012 - 9:57am

Basel III: Gold Standard Coming Back Soon?

Written by Brian Hicks - Wealth Daily
Monday, October 08, 2012

My friend and colleague Christian DeHaemer recently revealed to readers a historic event that is set to take effect onJanuary 1, 2013.

In short, major banks around the world will be forced to designate any gold they hold as a First Tier (or Tier 1) asset.

In other words, the world will be going back to a gold standard of sorts. Gold is set to become money again.

Read that again, dear reader: Gold is set to become money... just like cash.

Three cheers to the gold bugs!

Chris broke the story in Wealth Daily back on June 6 — but the mainstream media is just starting to pick up on this historic event...

Last Thursday, Forbes ran a story titled, “Signs of the Gold Standard are Emerging from Germany."

Forbes quoted a report by Deutsche Bank (Germany’s largest bank) published a week earlier:

[G]old is not really a commodity at all. While it is included in the commodities basket it is in fact a medium of exchange and one that is officially recognised (if not publicly used as such). We see gold as an officially recognised form of money for one primary reason: it is widely held by most of the world’s larger central banks as a component of reserves. We would go further however, and argue that gold could be characterised as ‘‘good’’ money as opposed to ‘bad’ money which would be represented by many of today’s fiat currencies.

The conclusion from our overview of gold functionality is that the key difference between good and bad money is scarcity (imposed supply discipline could be another way of describing this). Fiat currencies can be scarce but this scarcity may change on a whim which may both impact its tenure as currency and/or relegate it to being characterised as bad money. Gold is truly scarce, having a concentration of around 3 parts per billion in the Earth’s crust.

The intellectual rhetoric is matching action by central and public banks.

Read Full Article


Urban Roman
Oct 8, 2012 - 10:01am


Your predictions about over-medicated, obese Americans were made without taking into account the simultaneous economic depression, end of growth, end of empire, and peak oil. All of which are arguably interrelated.

I seriously doubt that America will be so fat and oblivious in the year 2040. Should I live so long, I'm not looking forward to the transition, but perhaps it will eliminate some of teh stoopid as well.

Of course, regardless of where you are living now, you will be affected by this. It's all one big happy planet now, remember?

Straying From the Flock
Oct 8, 2012 - 10:05am

2 things

Hello everyone,

I'm not a chart guy, but I listen and try to learn. Is the 4 hour net dania chart looking like a reverse head and shoulders? I do remember that if it is, good things should be on the horizon. Either way, if someone would be as kind as to let me know if it is or not, I would be most thankful.

2. My wife looked at me last night and asked me the following question:

"Could skynet get caught in a loop and spiral down to zero?"

I did not have an educated answer. I am pretty sure that the computers are the bulk of daily trading. Is it possible for the algo's to take on the persona of the Terminator computer system and exit the realm of human control? Some here talk of paper going to $0. Is this how it gets there?

Thanks for the help.

Oct 8, 2012 - 10:07am

SLW seems to ignore the raid so far

Neither are other silver miners falling as far as spot silver does. This is very interesting.

Urban Roman
Oct 8, 2012 - 10:11am


this thing works just like ZH. Click the 'post' button and nothing happens.

Then tab off and do something else and when you come back, you've posted multiple times.

Oct 8, 2012 - 10:16am


If we seem paranoid, it's because our GOVERNMENT is out to destroy us.

Not all Americans are paranoid when going into the woods...or Mountains. This young lady has ice in her veins.

Wrangler charges griz to save boy in Flathead

September 20, 2011 3:30 pm • By RICH LANDERS The Spokesman-Review (0) Comments

Wrangler Erin Bolster and Tonk, a Percheron mix.

WEST GLACIER - A young woman on a big horse charged out of the pack of grizzly bear stories this summer near Glacier National Park.

In a cloud of dust, the 25-year-old wrangler likely saved a boy's life while demonstrating that skill, quick-thinking and guts sometimes are the best weapons against a head-on charging bear.

full story Here:


Oct 8, 2012 - 10:22am


"If we seem paranoid, it's because our GOVERNMENT is out to destroy us."

So why should Austrians be any different?

Oct 8, 2012 - 10:22am

@RRJI-change of rules->Basel III

Well Basel III is clearly a change of rules compared to times when CBs were net sellers of gold. Basel III is in favor of stacking gold in banking system. As cash. As collateral. As economy gets more dire, more gold will be sold by public to dealers and banks, or presented as collateral for cheap loans.

So, January 1st, 2013 may be also a nice target day for gold price, and after election 2 months coming into that day should show clearly ascending trend , and , it could well be that after Basel III comes in force, the gold price will just JUMP never to return to previous median price - since is it not after a very long period that gold is back into banking system?

I think it will jump to around 2500 USD never to look back. Because of my chart. The gold chart which is still correct. When this jump is in making, GSR will move up, but before it still has to move down. There has to be a sharp spike down in GSR before it moves up again to 60. Because, as gold starts to move up clearly, silver will accelerate faster and will be caught in overbuying peak.

Unfortunately I can not anymore get the logarithmic chart on FreeCharts. Something has jammed. Any suggestions where to get gold, silver prices with possibility to see log chart and add lines etc? Thanks in advance!

Oct 8, 2012 - 10:31am


I see you have been run over by the TF welcome wagon! The folks here are mostly brilliant but also can be very bitter (instead of "bitter clingers", I prefer "bitter pasters").

They don't take kindly to criticism, especially from newbies. They will soon satiate their egos by bitterly pounding the ignore button, so don't stress. They will make themselves happy by posting "sweet home Alabama" again.

All I know of Austria is they make a fine dirt bike (almost one the open class on a 360 in 98), although the parts prices make them cost prohibitive. At least Austria still has pride in their manufacturing sector (we forgive you for the Fabio thing).

I would be more upset about you disparaging America, If it was still "our" country, but sadly it is not. That is not to say that it will not be again, but much pain will be required to accomplish this, and Americans have not yet woken to this fact. I will remain hopeful as I search for a new way to involve myself in the process. Unfortunately TPTB are experts at infiltrating and destroying organic movements from within, and it is getting harder to know who to trust.

Oct 8, 2012 - 10:59am

Part Of The Solution


The Original Thirteenth Article of Amendment
To The Constitution For The United States

"If any citizen of the United States shall accept, claim, receive, or retain any title of nobility or honour, or shall without the consent of Congress, accept and retain any present, pension, office, or emolument of any kind whatever, from any emperor, king, prince, or foreign power, such person shall cease to be a citizen of the United States, and shall be incapable of holding any office of trust or profit under them, or either of them." [Journal of the Senate]


The Original 13th Amendment
This Article of Amendment, ratified in 1819 and which just "disappeared" in 1876, added an enforceable strict penalty, i.e., inability to hold office and loss of citizenship, for violations of the already existing constitutional prohibition in Article 1, Section 9, Clause 8 on titles of nobility and other conflicts of citizenship interest, such as accepting emoluments of any kind for services or favors rendered or to be rendered, and is particularly applicable today in the 21st Century as government is increasingly FOR SALE to the highest bidder, as foreign and multinational corporations and individuals compete to line the pockets of politicians and political parties to accommodate and purchase protection or privilege, i.e. honors, for their special interests.

Oct 8, 2012 - 10:59am

REMEMBER - It's Canada's holiday

Canada is on holiday!

No trading in Canadian markets.

Therefore, Is Sprott on Thanksgiving?

Leave it to Rick Rule and the Sprott San Diego guys.

It's 8 AM Pacific.

Do you know where your asset management firm is at?

Oct 8, 2012 - 11:03am


i'm very interested in your viewpoints, particularly the GSR. may i ask how far ,in your opinion, you reckon the ratio may fall on its current downward trend.

I'm guessing your strategy (similar to mine) might be to buy silver and then swap it for gold when the ratio reaches a certain point?

Thanks for your involvement in these discussions.

Oct 8, 2012 - 11:09am

@ Horst

Don't mention the magic underpants of the Mormons! You'll get under fire by the TF pack haha!

Eric Original
Oct 8, 2012 - 11:10am

Good one, Airgead!

Good one, Airgead!

Oct 8, 2012 - 11:17am

Forget the snakes

In this jungle it's the TF wolf pack you need to fear!

Oct 8, 2012 - 11:26am

Happy Thanksgiving to all our

Canadian friends!

Oct 8, 2012 - 11:27am
Urban Roman fertzeltwist
Oct 8, 2012 - 11:33am


You said:

... Austria still has pride in their manufacturing sector (we forgive you for the Fabio thing).

But I'm not so sure we can forgive them for the Ahhnold thing. ** shudder **

Mr. Fix
Oct 8, 2012 - 11:34am
Dyna mo hum
Oct 8, 2012 - 12:19pm

Horst!! Adolph Hitler and Rabies

Was born in the little Austrian village of Braunau and I would like to thank all of Austria for that case of rabies that spread over most of Europe. WW2 would not have gone well for your people without help from the USA. Now STFU !!!!

Oct 8, 2012 - 12:31pm

How is that going to play out?

Senate hearings, 2/14/2013, House finance comittee conveines.

RP: Sir, is gold money? BB: Gold is now money, because we say so.

RP: does that make JPM a currency manipulator?

BB: No, they are bank clerks.

RP: What is their role?

BB: To short the Full Faith and Credit of the United States,

RP: Why would they do that?

BB: Its a hedge against the Full Faith and Credit of the United States.


If Au 2b tier 1, does that make JPM a currency manipulator?

thurd aye
Oct 8, 2012 - 12:33pm

"Now the tale is told By the

"Now the tale is told
By the old man back home
He reads the letter
How they are paid in gold
Just to babble in the back room
All night and waste their time" ............

This place can get to you at times.

This has been burning all day,Then I remembered, request DPH.He can solve it,maybe GL.

Oct 8, 2012 - 1:13pm

@mantis GSR moves

I think GSR may fall to close to 30 for sure. May be spike a bit lower for short period of time- less than 1 week.

I will move from silver to gold once that happens ( in a sense, equivalent to shorting silver, but more positive) , but I will do it in paper. I see no risk (huge) in trading in paper markets as long as they are under managed ascent strategy and stay within exponential growth channel. The leverage can not be too big, but 1:10 is manageable, I think, with no stops/low stops. May be I learn one day also how to use options in proper way.

If I make some bigger profits on silver before gold rise, I will by physical gold as well before it hits 2500. And may be after as well.

But my focus now is to figure out how the first reset will work . Could it be so simple that holding cash before it will make it through from fiat USD to gold backed? There must be more clever systems to destroy peoples wealth especially if USD is not Your residence /citinzenship currency.

Chicagofarmer Haole Guy
Oct 8, 2012 - 2:44pm

OK I give. Where did you get..

OK I give. Where did you get the silver? My guess the bank!1


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