Deja Vu...All Over Again

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 10:43am

Shit's gettin' old.

OK, The Bad Guys have been doing their Masters' bidding for three weeks now. Since the introduction of QE∞, the metals have been aggressively capped. Gold has been contained, first below 1780 and, ultimately, 1800. Why? Pull up a long-term chart. Once through 1800, gold will almost immediately press forward to 1850 and then 1900. Silver has been capped, too. The $35 level was defended first but the main target is near 35.50. Once above there, silver will quickly advance toward 37.50.

The Cartel defense of these levels has been consistent and aggravating. But also predictable. I mean, seriously, were you at all surprised by the beatdown earlier this morning? If you were, you haven't been paying attention. First, there was the Globex smackdown of 9/17 followed by similar action the next morning:

We gave it a week and it happened again:

Just three days later, they began attacking during the morning, instead:

The real desperation began this week. Here is Monday:

And Tuesday:

And after taking a break yesterday, they came back again today:

On the bright side, price has since rebounded somewhat while the dollar has continued to slide lower and the London PM fix was again quite busy with new multi-month highs in both $gold and eurogold. The remaining sand is rapidly pouring through the hourglass now and resolution to this seemingly endless capping event is near.

And a heads up. I bought another Dec12 $8 corn call this morning just as I suspected I would earlier this week. I like this chart a lot and we have another crop report due next week (I think). Regardless, a move here through $7.65 should lead to some additional short covering and fresh buying. This should shove corn back toward $7.85 and, once back above there, $8+ will soon follow.

Lastly, just an update on our bullion affiliation with GBI and the Hard Assets Alliance. Though I am still enamored with their platform for buying, storing and even trading metal, I certainly understood the frustration from some regarding their $35 "account setup fee". Apparently they've gotten enough negative feedback now that they've decided to do away with the fee. So, if you haven't already, I invite you to check out the HAA site. Your purchases there help to pay the bills here so please give them your consideration. Thanks!

I hope that everyone has a great day in preparation for what should be a very interesting BLSBS day tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dr G
Oct 5, 2012 - 9:46am

USD plunging, metals should

USD plunging, metals should be up.

I'll venture that we do NOT close the week above $35 nor $1800. Both stuck in their multi-week ranges at $1790 and $34.85 for weekly close.

Oct 5, 2012 - 9:48am


Hey guys, gold close the gap, see kitco, and is supportive of a bullion move higher.


Oct 5, 2012 - 9:50am

Suspense is Tantalizing

The metals are hardly moving.....eeni meeni miny mo..which way do the metals go??

Oct 5, 2012 - 9:51am

Must see Keiser report, if not already posted.

And commentary by me.

Fantastic report. Clear, simple, precise.

What I liked most was the thesis that the Banks unload their
worthless trash mortgages onto the Fed/Treas at 100% face value,
thereby putting their losses onto the taxpayer, but better or worse
depending upon one's position, they will then buy them back for 10%
of what the Fed/Treas. bought them for.

What an amazing scam!

I don' think that it is going to be that simple, though. I think that
the banks will buy back selectively. Afterall, they already know what's
in each of the MBS securities, since they produced them, one would think.

I think a lot of those homes are starting to crumble due to lack of maintenance,
This will be the rational of why they won't buy them back at more than 10% face value.
What they will attempt and probably get away with is slicing up the tranches and just
buy those performing tranches, that is, those houses that are maintained adn in good repair. The taxpayers will be left with the falling trash of inner city drug hideouts.

Geitner, Holder and OBamma are all implicated in what is the largest RICO heist the
U.S. has ever seen.

Beastly Stack
Oct 5, 2012 - 9:54am

Even the Jap Yen

The POSX is such shit that the lowly YEN is 40 points off its low.

You talk about a sad day in America.Today is absolutely criminal.The sad thing is we all know how corrupt things are and it only seems to be getting worse as time goes on.

God help us all!

silver bullett
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:00am

Very strange U-6

Very strange first time U-3 drops and U-6 remains unchanged???? Guess they forgot to manipulate it -- maybe they will see it and revise it latter today.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Measure Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted

NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force

5.2 4.3 4.2 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force

5.0 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.2

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)

8.8 8.2 7.6 9.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.1 7.8

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers

9.4 8.7 8.0 9.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.3

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

10.2 9.7 9.0 10.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.3

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

15.7 14.6 14.2 16.4 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.7 14.7
ballyale ballyale
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:09am
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:11am

well... that went well

Like many of you, I stopped actively trading the metals almost two years ago when I converted to being a pure stacker.

Nevertheless, I still have my fictitious accounts for old times' sake, kind of like what you guys in the US call Fantasy Football ;-)

Today I was MASSIVELY stopped out with that extremely weird move that looked purely like an on-purpose-stop-chasing.

To all of you active traders: I hope it didn't hurt too much. If anything, this is a good sign that it's time to just start stacking.

The Green Manalishi
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:19am

David Morgan: "We're Just Getting Started on the Next Move Up"

David Morgan: "We're Just Getting Started on the Next Move Up"
David Morgan: "We're Just Getting Started on the Next Move Up"
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:25am


I watched that, and flipped flopped from hilarity to a deep sense of anger and despair, in one wild rollycoaster. I may be strange in this regard, but I never few wealth in terms of FRNs, but only in the number of oz of gold and silver in possession, IN MY FREAKIN HAND, without any counter party risks to those oz's. Sure, I have ridden out every single correction, staying strong in physical. Sure, we can play the Au/Ag ratio, and multiply weight, but always in possession and in position. My friends, please stay long and strong and in physical, and view your wealth as the number of ounces in possession, and trust me, you live good and happy.

Oct 5, 2012 - 10:27am


I find it highly amusing that gold is still above 1780 after that obvious jam job today...

Oct 5, 2012 - 10:32am

you call that a raid?

Lieutenant Dan and the Storm
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:40am

Riders of the MOPE Storm - 7.8%

Hang in there everyone.

It was to be expected and I actually laughed/scoffed at the number when I first saw it.

The Doors - Riders on the Storm
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:42am

News after Close

I wonder what surprises will be announce this weekend? Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Canadian Turds

Beastly Stack
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:48am

CANCEL MY BOLD prediction

I'm out,let them play-next week shall be amusing!

Gold Five
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:57am

Caption contest

An illustration of how the CFTC plans on enforcing "position limits".

Dr G
Oct 5, 2012 - 10:59am

No movements happening until

No movements happening until next week. Traders have gone home. Robots remain and will probably try to crap on the metals during Globex.

Oct 5, 2012 - 11:00am

tulving and others

I liked the feedback on others' experiences with dealers. I've been happy with the prices at Tulving, but lately can't take the unknown ship date. I can't put life on hold waiting for UPS. I didn't even get ship notices on some orders, and some items took a couple weeks. I get the same curt treatment thru email and phone as everyone else though, so that's comforting. I tried TX Precious Metals when they had a sale and free shipping. Very good customer service, and they only sell stuff that's in stock. It arrived almost instantly. When I called with a question, someone picked up right away and was very pleasant to deal with. I'd buy from TPM again for sure. I think the packaging said Texas Precision Machine or something like that. I only wish my wire wasn't to TX Precision Metals cuz my bank always asks "what's this for?"

Oct 5, 2012 - 11:05am

Trading today was easy

Cartel raids are some of the best things to trade, today should have been a good day for traders here. If it wasnt you need to reevaluate your positioning and style as its not in sync with the metals markets.


Oct 5, 2012 - 11:08am

Monthly Chart

The monthly Forex chart looks great with Atlee's overlays on it.

Everything else is looking pretty sucky from where I am sitting.

TOO THE MOON.....Alice? Uh....Alice? You awake or what?

The Green Manalishi
Oct 5, 2012 - 11:11am

Jim Comiskey Metals "Unemployment Cooking Class"

Jim Comiskey Metals "Unemployment Cooking Class"
Video unavailable
Oct 5, 2012 - 11:17am

Oct 5, 2012 - 11:21am
Oct 5, 2012 - 11:23am


top news at of government sponsored ads are coming their way

ballyale ¤
Oct 5, 2012 - 11:42am

Riders on a storm.

I'm glad you posted that song. It's been on my mind for days now.

In a sense that's our new National Anthem now, whether we know it or not.

It's sooooo obvious that the EE is doing it's best to raid the PMs today, so that the monday rally will have less of an effect. The late afternoon trading should be something as the push back against the EE starts in earnest.

Hell, this is even much of a raid by the EE standards. May they their spouses and their children rot in Hell.

Oct 5, 2012 - 11:49am

@Hawk, > Cartel raids are


> Cartel raids are some of the best things to trade, today should have been a good day for traders here.

I would have done better to sit on the sidelines today. Both calls and puts were for the most part red today. How do you make money with such little volitility?

I did just pick up a few bucks from the silver dip just now... but overall it's a down day for my silver trading.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Recent Comments

by Joseph Warren, 2 hours 48 min ago
by canary, 3 hours 30 min ago
by sierra skier, Apr 22, 2019 - 10:47pm
by NW VIEW, Apr 22, 2019 - 10:09pm