Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

paper_2-15pmpig.jpg

Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.

paper_2-15pmgold.jpgpaper_2-15pmsilv.jpg

And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.

paper_aapl_0.jpg

Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:

Gold:       Down $30                              Silver:         Down $0.81

                  April OI down 7,647                                   March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549

                  Total OI down 4,897                                   Total OI down 1,136

Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.

That's all for now. Have a great evening.  TF

121 Comments

Senseosensei's picture

Precious metals and noise

I don't understand comments that state that this blog should be about metals, and metals only.

For me it's very obvious that politics, media, healthcare, life in general, are all VERY related to metals.

You can stare at your computer screen for trends all day long, but if we get war with Iran, to name one, you can throw all those precious charts and trends in the waste bin.

That being said, i would like more "what if...." discussions. If this or that happens, how will it play out, what to trade, and how. Sometimes we have those discussions, like when the BLS or Ben speak, but it could be broader.

¤'s picture

bad67

Pretty cool stuff.  Looks like lots of fun!

Glad you stopped in and joined the crew here.

Dr Durden's picture

I comment, contribute and I also donate

And if I see the same e-convos between members about stupid crap, cartoons and AC/DC vids on the subscription site, I'm out. 

Just me. Guess I'm the asshole and you're all growns up...

Dr G's picture

I'm sure that LV Dave has

I'm sure that LV Dave has some good stuff to add, but I can't see any of it.

He's been on my ignore list ever since August 28. That was the evening that I announced the birth of my 4th child to the folks in Turdland, and LV Dave called me out for being a moron because such an announcement has no place in a metals forum. Never mind that my children are the real reason I stack metals.

For the record, I dislike 99% of the music videos and over 50% of the cartoons that are posted. It's easy enough to scroll past them.

¤'s picture

rtabit

Nice to see you post and welcome to Turdville.

I'm glad you enjoy the light natured part of the site also and some of the off subject material that's put up by many of us on here. Talking metals and markets 24/7 would be boring and nerve wracking to some extent.

The uptight people with the 'tudes that don't post often except chirping about what they don't like about the site are petulant and drifters.

Dr G's picture

Since Turd brought up one of

Since Turd brought up one of my favorite companies, AAPL, I thought I'd link to a great blog post. Basically if Apple was on the Dow it would be 2000 points higher than it is now.

Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Adam Nash.

Here is a quote: "Of course, being who I am, I went home and built a spreadsheet to recalculate what would have happened if Dow Jones had decided to add Apple to the index instead of Cisco back in 2009.  Imagine my surprise to see that the Dow be would over 2000 points higher.

In real life, the Dow closed at 12,874.04 on Feb 13, 2012.  However, if they had added Apple instead of Cisco, the Dow Jones would be at 14,926.95.  That’s over 800 points higher than the all-time high of 14,164 previously set on 4/7/2008.

Can you imagine what the daily financial news of this country would be if every day the Dow Jones was hitting an all-time high?"

An interesting read.

Turd Ferguson's picture

following along...

MODERATOR

...and in response to Justin, too.

Thank you both for taking the time to offer your opinions. Yes, the old site catered to traders and others who already "got it". Coming from ZH, that was to be expected.

This new site has evolved away from that. My mission now is to take our "message" to the "masses"...the 99.5% of the population who has no idea of what is coming and no idea of how to prepare for it. Perhaps I will fail in spectacular fashion but I have to try.

Coming full circle, this site is returning to its original premise of the "watchtower": If you have been given the vision to see what is coming, it is incumbent upon you to warn as many as possible.

Isaiah 21:8

And the lookout shouted,

 “Day after day, my Lord, I stand on the watchtower; 

   every night I stay at my post. "

Response to: Re: Subscription?
bad67's picture

Dear Dr. D

I am 50 years old.  I love AC/DC.  I love PM's.  I WILL donate.  Why so serious?

Dr G's picture

Turd's task is a difficult

Turd's task is a difficult task. How can we help Turd in reaching out to our friends and neighbors so that they might lay aside the telestial (of lesser importance) things of this world in preparation for that which is celestial (of greater importance).

The 99.5% that Turd mentions remind me of the monkeys in this story that was recounted by Spencer W. Kimball:

"I am reminded of an article I read some years ago about a group of men who had gone to the jungles to capture monkeys. They tried a number of different things to catch the monkeys, including nets. But finding that the nets could injure such small creatures, they finally came upon an ingenious solution. They built a large number of small boxes, and in the top of each, they bored a hole just large enough for a monkey to get his hand into. They then set these boxes out under the trees and in each one they put a nut that the monkeys were particularly fond of.
 
When the men left, the monkeys began to come down from the trees and examine the boxes. Finding that there were nuts to be had, they reached into the boxes to get them. But when a monkey would try to withdraw his hand with the nut, he could not get his hand out of the box because his little fist, with the nut inside, was now too large.
 
At about this time, the men would come out of the underbrush and converge on the monkeys. And here is the curious thing: When the monkeys saw the men coming, they would shriek and scramble about with the thought of escaping; but as easy as it would have been, they would not let go of the nut so that they could withdraw their hands from the boxes and thus escape. The men captured them easily.
 
And so it often seems to be with people, having such a firm grasp on things of the world—that which is telestial—that no amount of urging and no degree of emergency can persuade them to let go in favor of that which is celestial."
Bugzy's picture

Metals content

I suspect two threads per day would be ideal. One for straight metal talk and one for "related" stuff.

There is obviously a demand for the big picture as it does impact everything. Metals is a function of that big picture. 

I am here for metals primarily but one cannot argue with the "free market" approach of this site and its organic growth into other related areas.

If it aint broke dont fix it.

Would I pay for a subscription? Probably not. Would I volunteer to donate, probably. I would prefer to pay over the odds for some turdite t shirt. Win win. There are many free sources out there. I currently do not pay for anything. There again I am all in physical and have been for 6 years. You will probably not make me any money.

Now if I was a trader...... I suspect your knowledge would pay for itself pretty quickly. That would be a different matter.

Your manner and intellect and integrity and humility when you guess wrong are the main draw for me. You are one likeable sort of yellow hatted dude.

Ha!!! Just clicked on the store button for the first time ever. Gonna have to have some of those T shirts. Reasonable price too.

HeNateMe's picture

Rock on Turd

Rock on.

Maryann's picture

Thank you TF

You are choosing the narrow road.  I can't tell you how much I admire and respect that.  I will support your efforts, and I know many others will also.  I also know you will be attacked and ridiculed.  I pray we can support and encourage each other during this time and that we all warn the people that are  within our own circles of influence.  That is our responsibility.

Welcome to those lurkers who are now posting.  We are very glad to have your input and thoughts!

SilverRunNW's picture

Paid Subscription: What I like best...

Turd,  love the idea of a paid subscription model, looking forward to it.  I, for one, will become a paid subscriber. 

Best thing,  there will probably be way less trolls and if there are, they have to pay for the privilege to post their trollish drivel on the "subscriber" posts.

As far as the change-up in format today, I like the structure.  Simple!

Titus Andronicus's picture

My guess about the commercial net position in silver

Hey Turd,

My guess to your answer is that the commercial net position will be higher in the next report.  (With OI down, I guess that means that the number of commercial shorts covered must have been higher than the number of commercial longs opened.  I think that is right.)  I wouldn't bet my life on it, but that is my guess.  The usual rule being:

Price down, commercial net position up; price up, commercial net position down.

Unless there is a commercial short squeeze going on, in which case you see price up, commercial net position up.

I'm sure there are exceptions, but not many.  So my guess for this week could be wrong, but the fact that the above is the usual case is easy, if tedious, to verify.

I don't know how the above is achieved.  I certainly believe that there are few aspects of today's markets that are not heavily manipulated by governments, banks, etc.  I guess they use HFT, advance insider knowledge of events which move the market, and selling or leasing of physical silver or gold.

For instance, during the last week, there was lots of up and down, sideways movement -- plenty of chance for moneyed interests to steal longs from weaker hands to cover their tracks.

I don't know how it is done, only that it is very, very consistent and it is strange to me that people seem to be regularly surprised by a pattern that must be true over 90% of the time.  (True, at least, according to the COT report.)

Another thing: I don't know how to use the information of a quickly falling commercial net position.  During a period of quickly rising prices, it is the usual trend in gold and silver.  So I personally don't know how to use that information to predict future price action.

The basic book I used to first learn about COT analysis is by Larry Williams: "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders."  My understanding about the COT really comes from that book.

The correlation between negative lease rates and silver/gold price crashes seems very obvious and valuable.  It seems to me to be a way of measuring manipulation which occurs outside the Comex and the COT report.  I think I heard it from you first.  As an indicator, this information is probably as valuable as the COT report itself.

PS: I could be wrong about the above, but I am not an agent of disinformation.  Sure I'm stupid or wrong about things from time to time, but that is a different story.  I do the best I can to understand the market.  I try to be helpful and post what I know here to share with other people.  I have certainly learned a lot from this site.

Monedas's picture

Treefrog ! You must be older than God !

Lots of rings in your tree, eh ?  My brother showed me his 100 oz Ag ingot around 1967 ! It was one of those wide, shallow ones and it came in a royal purple,  velvet "cozy" with a braided draw string ? Hoarders have class !.......Around 1968, I was a student/bartender at a Berkeley Pizza Pub called "Kips" ! Every night one skanky waitress would separate all the silver coins and write the boss a check ! I had every advantage, then.....but it took a tour in Viet Nam to knock a little "cents" into me !  Monedas  2012  Happy hoarding to you !   devil

redwood's picture

Nice explanation Titus.  So

Nice explanation Titus.  So if I'm reading you right with the impending negative lease rates we should expect silver/gold soon to go down.

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Today's experiment…

Didn't particularly care for it - too much keeping various tabs open on my browser to check what was being posted on each individual thread.

Right now I prefer the one or two bigger threads a day, but that may change after paid subscriptions are instigated.

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Did anybody see this today? Mark your calendar - March 31

<snip> Hacking instructions stuff was here </snip>

Summary: ITT we find out Anonymous is planning to shutdownify the Interwebs on March 31, oh my, lock up your routers people cuz Lulzsec is on the loose...

Dr Durden's picture

Why so serious?

Well, I'm happy to donate to the cause. I don't mind the cartoons and the videos when they're warranted or on the Fri night chillax threads. I've posted them myself, too. 

What bothers me now and will be a sure sign of fail on the subscription site for me are the ones who are either too lazy to PM or just don't care about the readers of the Blog enough to take their random conversations about nonsense completely unrelated to the general discussion of the day or the scope of the forum as a whole. Someone above posted a pic of their car smokin' some tread. Awesome! FUCK silver, where can I get one of them!?!?

So go ahead, charge a fee for the extras beyond what you get as leech or even an OS active member, and keep your 20 or so buddies around so they all can e-talk to themselves, make themselves feel special in their circle-jerking, hat tipping, e-worlds with ignore lists a mile long...and maybe one day y'all can have a real life meet up and do some real life ass slapping. I'm sure it will be a hoot.

By the way, I've seen this happen time and time again to other user groups/forums. It's cool for awhile, but always dies a slow painful death. But Turd is the man with the master plan, so it's ultimately up to him. 

Xeno's picture

Damn The Torpedoes

fwiw I found the site a bit tedious today, under the old format all the comments on main st. stayed pretty much on topic and the variance was lively and more than tolerable. Besides, if something specific came up then it could always be found in the forums for more detailed commenting.

Having said that... (where have I heard THAT before?)

This is a precious metals site and when you dig in to understand the shinny you cannot do anything but get involved in the whole world and how it all affects that piece in your hand (or visa versa).

And with only one way for the metals to move it'd be foolish for Turd to go back to the way life used to be. Or any of us for that matter. Like it or not we're all in it now.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Vernon Wormer's picture

Pay site

Turd,

Not sure I care one way or the other. I will continue to donate, buy shirts etc. regardless of your decision. Turd, you are running a very successful site (and running for president) so I will defer to your expertise. I know that I prefer fewer posts and longer comment sections. It just seems to flow better.

DPH: Congratulations on your promotion to "juvenile hipster". I am proud to review your thought provoking work. The speak and news machine are daily visits for me. I am 47 years old and enjoy an AC/DC video now and again. I have also found that the longer Pink Floyd videos make excellent background music for reading the comments' section.

I too have been "first" once and made note of it. It was sophomoric and quasi-retarded, but it felt damn good. I have said it before and I will probably say it again, I learn more here in a day than I learned in many of my college classes. One of the proudest moments I've had on this site was when my avatar made it on board 'Turd's Bottom.' The PM news and stacking are part of my everyday life, but the silly little things that happen sometimes on this site make my everyday life a little more enjoyable. Our humanity got us into this mess and our humanity will have to get us back out.

Fred Hayek's picture

Turd and others, what do you make of the mid month adding of

the mid month adding of silver contracts at the Comex?  I read Harvey Organ's site almost every day.  He's noted that we've had a whole bunch of contracts added mid month.  Something like 50 more contracts jumped onto the rolls yesterday to stand for delivery.  Harvey speculates that it's some party somewhere else in the world who desperately needs to get his hands on some actual silver.  Does this seem right?  Why can't they get it somewhere else?

A second question I have is what do you make of the huge amount of silver being sold at the Comex these last two months?  At the rate we're going, we might end up with 4.5 to 5 million ounces of silver sold and delivered at the Comex this month.  And there were 6 million ounces of silver sold last month and both January and February are normally weak delivery months.  Has demand ramped up to levels that make the normal EE raid extremely difficult to execute?

And a third question, won't the opening of the PAGE (scheduled for June) also make it much more difficult for the EE to execute their standard raid and achieve the desired effect?

TomMack's picture

subscribe or lurk

This is a great site for more than just metals.  There is plenty of information:  some excellent, some good, some not so good, and some bad.  The same is true for the videos.  It takes .01 seconds to skip what doesn't look appealing.  As far as lurking and not 'contributing' to the thread, just poking out of my hole to guess the settlement next month or whatever and crawling back in; there is plenty of rah rah rah silver going up up up because blah blah blah or silver going down because blah blah blah.  Do we really need everyone to comment?   I do it just to say, "hey I am here on the good ship Turd has built".  Most of us come here because we share a similar point of view and want to be prepared for the future.  The comments present the full spectrum of plans of what the future may bring. How we use this information to prepare is our own decision.  So I will subscribe as long as the value of the site stays above the value of the subscription.  I hope it does for ever.  I really enjoy the current form and hate change in general but as what this site is about, change is coming and we must be prepared.

Moderator Jane's picture

A Fair Compromise

MODERATOR

I think a potentially good compromise would be if we gently encouraged people on the subscriber-only PM threads to stay more on topic than on general blog topics. However, I am guessing that in those subscriber areas people might naturally be a bit more focused than they would be on the open blog.

RedRiverRocker's picture

A shout out to ya from 58104

Nice wheels! My second post here ever but been lurking for quite some time now! This is my top stop for my "daily bread". How's things at 58701? lol, nice to see some fellow Dakotan's here! Turd, you the man Bro! Thanks for all you do and thanks to all who submit the plethora of information here! A shout out to you all!!

vamoose1's picture

Beware Grifters Bearing Down on Greece.

Apologies all and sundry, couldn't resist. To the point then,  the ,  uh   Grecian  Formula  so  to  speak. Enough!!

    Ok  so  Greece is pretty clearly toast,  they will be hitting the road as they  should, and my hope is that we have  so  frequently discounted this event in the last many months, that we do  not provoke a waterfall.  They  need 14 in March,  which  is considerably  different to   140  billion, chump change,  so  maybe they will piecemeal  things to them  for a while,  so a catastrophic market event, contagion  etc,   no,  money in the required quantities  will get launched, and this of course is bad for gold and silver. 

    Most people here know its the antithesis of that, its rocket fuel  for gold and silver, thus providing all the more reason  to  stand on it. 

   There is something called micromanaging,  where TPTB are just ever so  clever,  they can  put this here,  and we will put that there, we know exactly what we are doing, .... a good example of which  was Long Term Capital  Management.  More candle power than General  Electric in that place, and they  very nearly capsized America with their surpassing brilliance. Perhaps micromanaging is a snick  over rated. 

   Well,  if you were so  crystal  brilliant in August 2010,  lounging and snorting  with those tasty Ukrainian  hookers in  your stolen  mansions in the Hamptons,  you might have twigged to  the PSLV  prospectus,  sized the thing and done some grade 3 arithmetic, but no,  Im  upstairs with  Greta ,  its August 24,  2010,  and well,  we kinda  whiffed. 

   Well,   from  the flotation  at 17  in December 2010, to the panic of April  2011 leading to the May  Driveby,  silver tripled,  a ten  million  dollar nothing issue with  nothing Sponsorship,  morphed into  a green  shoed 580  million in Physical  Silver   and tripled the silver price in   145 days before Murder Incorporated  reacted on  mayday,  right at the 1980 top. Area 51,   might just possibly have found some on stop   buyers,  think  triple digits. Pick your Chapter,   or ,  more accurately ,   pick  your politician. And lean  a bit on  your highly principled regulator.  Right.

    So  lets  fast forward,  8500 hedge Funds  with three trillion  under management,  are looking at   33 million  ounces of ostensibly deliverable silver at Comex, silver that comes with  skid marks as it whirls from  sarehousw to  warehouse,  Jeepers , thats a whole billion  bucks,  wont that be tough. 

    Not to  mention  50  thousand   increasingly  restive capital  pools, pensions,  unions, municipalities,   cities   ,  towns,   small ,  islands,  domus  rus and humus for you  scholars. 

   Bill Gross of PIMPCO  buying Gold.  Running the largest and arguably close to  most prestigious capital  pool  in the world. perhaps Blackrock  outcounts them. At  pistol point. 

   Bill Gross has a billion dollar STAMP COLLECTION!! Now is he rolling that upside down Sopwith  Camel  into  the yellow stuff,   or would he talk  his book.  hahahahahahaha,   next question,  but nevertheless,  he shows up  in the 10  QS   . And there he is.    The bond king buying GOLD? the total  antithesis of what he spent  his entire 45 year  career  marring? .  Whose on that unannounced silver bid. 

    So,  this silver standoff,   whats this, a resilient bidder,  a clearly determined shorter at   34, and  Macau   China   singing karaoke at the casino, blasting 30  dollarAmerican  fiat  for every available grey  ounce  Planet E  can  conjure. Warm  from  the refiner.  Send it in,  they  could give a flying,    28  would be even  finer   forty   niner, ......   so  we  stack,....the destination   is certainly not in  question,  and few people have the slightest plan to  spend it,   kiss your partner,  love your issue if so  lucky. 

Moderator Jane's picture

@Las Vegas Dave - IGNORE USER

MODERATOR

Dear Dave, I removed your last post because it was an unnecessarily mean and hostile personal attack.

Those posters who complain about specific members but never bother to use the IGNORE USER button that is clearly labeled at the end of every comment deserve to be annoyed. And have their flames removed.

I have a better solution for you: Use the ignore user button and you will never see that person's post content again.

firstsilver's picture

Alternative currency

Amidst the sniping by the "regulars" about "lurkers" and the give-and-take over what constitutes acceptable contribution to the thread, I think I see an alternative currency possibility for the self-proclaimed denizens of Turdville.

Forget gold, or a commodity basket as a basis for a new currency. Allow me to suggest another couple of items of backing, appropriate to a wide-spread predisposition here to digital excess. Instead of gold, we have posts made to constitute one half of the basket. Instead of silver, substitute hat tips received. All hail bi-metalism vintage 2012.

Now all we have to do is settle on a proper exchange for rate for conversion to Turd Bucks. Some of you will be wealthy in Turd Bucks, for what that's worth.

admin's picture

Post on Gawker regarding

Post on Gawker regarding Obama considering reducing metal content of pennies and nickels:

http://gawker.com/5885521/obama-thinks-pennies-cost-too-much-to-make-romney-wonders-what-is-a-penny

The best part of the article are the clueless comments from posters such as:

  • "Um, how about GET RID OF THE USELESS FUCKING PENNY."  (yes, well the reason they're "useless" has to do with debasement of currency, but never mind that... just GET RID OF THEM!)
  • "The cost of 1 penny is 2.4 pennies? Consider my mind blown!" (your mind is blown.)
  • "For the love of all that is holy, just end the goddamn penny, nickel, and dime. Do it now." (I completely agree!  100% paper-based system ASAP!)
  • "The US really needs to get with the times. Tradition is one thing but being trapped by your own history is another thing entirely." (oh yes, having real metal as currency is surely a sign of being "behind the times")
  • "Can we get rid of paper money next?" (we are well on our way.  wink)
  • "What this country needs today is a 11.2-cent nickle."  (yes, we already have this.  It's called a "nickel".  lol)
  • "Nothing says 'the US' like spending too much on a useless thing. They should farm out penny manufacturing to overseas." (Why didn't I think of this!  Now that's an ingenious idea! laugh)
garrylindsay's picture

You know what else I am sick of...

My AAPL owning friends and family that keep telling me why am I fighting a manipulated market that will never let the price of PM's rise, when they are cashing in on AAPL they have owned since the ipod's came out, that even they know is way over valued!

I tell them, wait, all will be revealed soon enough and they say, same old tune is getting old after a decade, how do you like my new condo I bought in Costa Rico with my AAPL investments! Look slike I have beaten you by 3-4 times, PM looser!

Makes me not a happy chappy!

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