Welcome to the updated TF Metals Report! We hope you enjoy the new experience.

We've changed payment processors, so any existing renewals will need to be re-subscribed after expiration. You will receive an email when this happens. If you have any questions, send a message through the Contact page.

Hunch

137
Tue, Sep 25, 2012 - 3:28pm

Just felt like I needed to put this out there.

The severity of the forced reversal back on Friday, followed by the beatdown of Sunday evening and the turnaround of today has made me a bit uneasy. It seems, at this moment, that The Cartel has more conviction to cap and hammer than The Good Guys have to buy. It all feels a bit coordinated, too.

If you ascribe to the theory of "managed ascent", these first days and weeks following the QE∞ announcement would seem to be a critical time for "management" of all things dollar-denominated. To have them explode in price so soon after the announcement would be a quid quo pro so obvious that even Helen Keller could see and hear it. So what do you do if you're a central planner, you encourage your goons to "intervene" and hold prices in check, maybe even cause brief declines. After a while, when prices resume their upward trajectories, the central planner can have plausible deniability needed to assert that his policies are not causing the price increases.

We first saw this last week in crude. QE∞ is announced just as MENA tensions are flaring and crude goes down? Seriously? How could that be? It wasn't a "fat finger" event that started the ball rolling but, in the end, that doesn't matter anyway. All that matters is that some trades were instigated to trip up the momentum and cause an unlikely reversal. Take out a few technical support levels and suddenly you've got crude back down near $90 and searching for a catalyst to regain its footing.

The same thing seems to be happening in the metals. After being capped all week, we were all patiently awaiting the next breakout and appeared to have it Friday morning. The overnight trade had been weak all week but Thursday into Friday it wasn't. And when the metals finally broke higher Friday morning, it looked like the real deal. Then, out of the blue, comes a sharp slam and the bulls get kneecapped. A further $15 decline on Sunday evening then further sapped the enthusiasm of buyers and now the metals just look weak. Buying enthusiasm has temporarily waned and this almost certainly means that soon the sellers will be emboldened. Add to that the ridiculously large new short positions of the banks and the obscenely negative silver lease rates and you've got a correction just waiting to happen.

Again, now, let me go back and reiterate what I've told you several times: 5% corrections in gold and 10% corrections in silver happen all the time within bull market cycles. Do not let them catch you on the wrong foot. Global QE ∞ means that all fiat currency is being debased. The only alternative for wealth preservation is physical precious metal. You know this. I know this. Many, many others around the globe are coming to know this and the insatiable demand thus created will underpin and reverse every attempt to collapse price going forward for the foreseeable future.

IF a "correction" develops here, do not be afraid, be joyous. You will have been given an opportunity to buy even more precious metal in exchange for your soon-to-be-worthless fiat. So, relax, be happy and let's see where the rest of this week takes us.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  137 Comments

Marblesonac · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:27am

image 1

1955 Buick Special on Craigslist

usk · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:29am

I don't remember to have seen 3 silver attacks in 3 trading days in a row making such a flop. That does not mean of course that we won't get the expected correction. Still a lot of pressure in silver stocks, meaning that HF are still waiting for some action from their master.

I Run Bartertown · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:31am

I thought you didn't like political posts?

In any event, even if you win, you will still be part of a raggedy coalition of losers, beggars, race hustlers, homosexuals, women who couldn't find a man, and damaged White beta-males who cheerlead for the above. Congratulations!

Dr G · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:33am

I don't remember to have seen 3 silver attacks in 3 trading days in a row making such a flop.

Two out of those three days the metals, although having been attacked, have risen in NY trading. Waterfall declines that are near vertical on the chart have still been had.

dziprick · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:36am
Hawk · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:36am

Silver is very strong here, this certainly isn't easy for the powers that be, as gold made multiple new lows silver made one spike low and then hugged $33.50. I expect this continues to hold , Personally I bought sub $33.50 today and covered my short side of Dec call spreads. 

GL All , Still looks very bullish, sell off was always likely with a stacked deck as the ben Davies quote above states. 

HAWK

tyberious · Sep 26, 2012 - 11:48am

Great commentary and analysis on the GOP! They have been on a demographic downhill slide since Regah.

Ag bottomed right at 33.36! I bought at 33.55.

Bollocks · Sep 26, 2012 - 12:29pm
Max Keiser and The artist taxi driver
Short Stack · Sep 26, 2012 - 12:30pm

Liberals tend to shoot off their mouths before the facts are all in to the others satisfaction.

Stingbee is a case in point. He tries to convince us all that the election is already over in hopes the conservatives will all just give up and stay home on election day. Little realizing just how much more it galvanizes the Right to go and vote.

Stingbee purposely leaves out, two more Unemployment reports, four Presidential debates, and I suspect at least one vice-Presidential debate. Not to mention all the time between for all to analyze the information.

Nice try Stingbee. Maybe your stupid propaganda will work on the uneducated down at the Salvation Army, but here, we see it for what it is.

Best of luck to you, Stingbee. I pray you come to your senses soon.

BJZimmy · Sep 26, 2012 - 12:35pm

@Tyberious. So has God (Been on a demographic downhill slide).

Do these words ring of truth? An amazing speaker telling it like it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfrd8vRBla4
Pay attention to the keywords such as: Antithetical, Inimical, Moral Relativism and Political Idolatry. Perfect descriptions of rabid liberal ideologists. And yet everyone seems to wonder why we are doomed.

Mantis · Sep 26, 2012 - 12:46pm

only a puppet show, left or right, libs or dems, blue or red, shit or crap

Oooo look at the puppets my puppet is better than your puppet. (Meanwhile we are all getting shafted.)

Short Stack · Sep 26, 2012 - 1:02pm

Never said it wasn't. Never said it was either. But by saying it is a puppet show, think about what you are saying about Obama. Think about what you are saying about JFK, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson, George Washington.

Think.

Hagarth Bollocks · Sep 26, 2012 - 1:03pm

This Irish cabbie has a face at the end of the clip that typifies why the Romans called Ireland...IRE LAND. He's got plenty of IRE to go around. 

ire, rage, fury - Ire suggests greater intensity than anger, rage suggests loss of self-control, and fury is destructive rage verging on madness.

BTW when the SHTF do not hold up an Irish cabbie for cash...or anything else for that matter. 

JackPutter partypup · Sep 26, 2012 - 1:40pm

Others have said that there is zero need for a gold standard to be set up. In other words fiat systems that are abused to the point of collapse create the situation whereby the physical-gold/silver/copper standard is thrust upon the entirety of the populace. It's always the last one standing along with barter.

The fiat system has at it's core, the trust that it will be a storage and transferability of ones efforts. That someone will get out of it what they put into it must be demonstrable; or else true market forces kick in. With not one market considered to have non-manipulated prices belies the magicians tricks. 

The industry of illusion for the sake of the retention of trust in the fiat system is the only evidence required to show that the game is done. 

The first to obtain assets out of a Ponzi/Maddoff/Bernanke scheme does it best.

Strongsidejedi Short Stack · Sep 27, 2012 - 2:35am

@Shortstack - Understand your intent, but I do not understand your confidence in the voter or the voting process. I have neither. Call me a curmudgeon, but (a) I don't believe most voters (i.e. >50%) have any ideas on national or international policy when they are in the voting booth. Apologies to the insightful women on the board, but those types of ladies are greatly outnumbered by the X-factor watchers and Oprah-influenced voters. (b) I don't have alot of confidence in the integrity of electronic balloting. Without the actual voting ballot being present, the virtual vote can be fudged with the use of software.


And, the GOP is split into two factions. You can not argue the fact that neoconservatives closely funded by foreign interests are largely guiding Republican Partisans. Just look at the 90-1 vote that I posted about earlier.

Strongsidejedi Short Stack · Sep 27, 2012 - 2:37am

double posted using Chrome.

TreeTop Dweller · Sep 27, 2012 - 4:03pm

How will Au & Ag not be at or nearing an all time high by 12/21 this year?

North Korea secretly sells gold to make up for shortfall: report

SEOUL -- North Korea has been secretly selling gold to make up for shortages of hard currency after it spent millions of dollars on celebrating the 100th birthday of its founder, a news report said Tuesday.

The Chosun Ilbo daily quoted sources in China as saying that the impoverished communist state had cashed more than two tons of gold worth US$100 million in China over the past year.

“North Korea has been exporting not only gold ingots it had obtained from mines or stored in government agencies but gold trinkets it had collected from ordinary people,” an ethnic Korean businessman told the daily.

“North Korean trading companies in China have been cashing the gold in secrecy,” the source said. “For this purpose, North Koreans are compelled to sell gold trinkets to government authorities.”

The movement reportedly began after Kim Jong Un took the reins from his late father Kim Jong Il who died of heart attack in December last year.

North Korea has been starved of hard currency after economic exchanges with South Korea came to a halt following its alleged torpedoing of a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives in March 2010, Chosun Ilbo said.

It was estimated to have spent millions of dollars on celebrating Kim Il Sung's 100th birthday in April this year and launching a space rocket in a disguised test of a long-range missile.

North Korea produces up to two tons of gold every year in mines, mostly in the northwestern provinces.

https://chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/korea/2012/09/26/355616/North-Kor...

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 10/29

10/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
10/31 8:30 ET Employment Cost Index
11/1 8:30 ET Productivity
11/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
11/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/2 8:30 ET Balance of Trade
11/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Recent Comments

by pennywise, 38 min 13 sec ago
by AGXIIK, 4 hours 14 min ago
by NW VIEW, 5 hours 15 min ago
by NW VIEW, Nov 14, 2018 - 11:40pm
randomness