Because I Said So

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:34pm

Just when world markets were seeking assurance, our esteemed and supremely qualified leader uttered this:

"Markets will rise and fall, but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we have always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said.

Nothing quite like living in FantasyLand. I hear it's particularly beautiful at this time of year.

How are you feeling about your gold and silver today? Let's see...Dow is down 506. The S&P is down 66. Crude's at $80. Copper and the grains have been pummeled. I know that silver is pissing you off but, considering the absolute demolition of everything that isn't gold, you should actually feel pretty good about it.

Speaking of silver, here's a 2-hour chart. When the selling of everything finally relents, silver will rally sharply. It will carry through 40.40 and it will move rapidly toward the highs of last week near $42.

However, gold is your clear, hands-down winner on the day. I have a last of $1714, up an amazing $62. There's more to come, too. First up, here's your 2-hour chart. It shows another "stair" higher.

More significantly, I've tried to recreate Trader Dan's weekly chart. Notice the clear breakout of the three-year channel. If it can hold in this area and extend gains...and it's hard to see why it wouldn't...a breakout of this magnitude is extraordinarily bullish. I can see why JPM came out with their "$2500 gold by year end" prediction today.

Three years is an awful long time so we must be careful. Gold could easily fall back into the channel and give us a "false breakout". However, the fundos are so strong at present that it may very well stay up and begin a rapidly accelerating extension higher. Watch this very closely as we may be about to be given a once-in-a-decade opportunity to make big fiat, real fast.

Lastly, I did switch a few things around today in order to take maximum advantage of what I see coming. In silver, I eliminated my Sep spreads and am now simply long the $42 calls. In gold, I dumped my October 1700 vs 1800 spreads and went long just the straight 1800 calls. I'm still long my December 1700 vs 1800 spreads, though.

Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

That's it for now. Keep the faith! TF

5:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As the Globex closes, gold is back to $1722. I can't imagine that it won't make new highs overnight, particularly when Asia is in full swing at around midnight to 2:00 am EDT. For your comic relief, I present below something I just received from a friend. It's the opening paragraph of a "SPECIAL BULLETIN", just released by MSSB. What absolute fools these people are. They can't even spell "committee" correctly! If you are currently working with a traditionally-trained "financial advisor"....well, you know what they say about a fool and his money.

Latest Report from the Global Investment Policy Comittee: Downgrade .

GIC Special Bulletin: Impact of US Credit Downgrade on Markets

Applegate, Jeffrey – Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

August 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT

The downgrade of US long-term debt by Standard and Poor’s, which is notable politically and historically, is having a prompt and negative short term effect on global financial markets. However, the next stop is not a recession—nor is it a drop in corporate profits. This a split decision on ratings, as the other two major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their respective top-drawer ratings for US debt. As this latest sell-off abates, expect the markets to refocus on the fundamentals: an intact global business-cycle expansion that in our view, should deliver double-digit profit-growth into 2012. Our base case remains that a US economic rebound will occur in the second half of this year and that European policymakers will eventually be forced to take more decisive action to stabilize their debt markets and the euro.

11:25 pm EDT UPDATE:

These late nights are wiping me out. Holy cow, gold is up another $42 as I type at $1755! The S&P is down 28. Crude is down another $4. The grains and copper are getting smoked. At least silver is hanging in there at 39.12.

Two things. Watch gold overnight. Santa's number of the final frontier is 1764. For whatever reason, his numbers usually pan out and he's maintained for weeks that 1764 would be defended by The Cartel. In silver, watch this triangle play out. Silver could collapse through 38.50 and head toward 37 but I doubt it. I expect silver to instead charge through the down-sloping line overnight and begin heading higher. We'll see. Anything can happen. Have a great overnight. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 9, 2011 - 12:14am

Treasuries Dropping

It looks like treasury prices are dropping and yields rising, a change in the pattern of the last few days.... not sure why but another data point to ponder.

1768....just wow.... glad I filled up on Saturday, but wish I'd bought a whole lot more.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:15am

Wow...looks like I picked the wrong week

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking...
Tom L
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:15am

That New Bottle I bought

Forty Creek Barrel Select, is tasting mighty fine right now.

One last drop before bed. Got goats to work on in the morning with the wife before the market open.

We've hit $1764, now can we hold it?


Aug 9, 2011 - 12:16am

Going up about a dollar a

Going up about a dollar a minute.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:17am

This is unbelieveable.

This is unbelieveable.

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:17am

Oh well - sleep is overrated

*Tops up a nice glass of red...

Have to stay tuned - this is moving pretty quick for a slow motion train wreck!

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:17am

Too late to change gold price guess??? omg

I had 1780.50 and I changed it to 1721. What was I thinking?!?

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:18am

Heck if gold got slammed 65

Heck if gold got slammed 65 dollars it would still be 1700.

There is panic and fear in the world market place. Get the women and children off the streets.

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:18am


@Tom L

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:18am

Turdle GG

I think I read that Jim isn't accepting any emails for the time being.

lostinspace SilverFocker
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:18am

you forgot

The U.S. does have a triple A rating !

1. Obama= Ass Clown

2. Congress = Ass Clowns

3. Treasury = Ass Clowns

Thats a triple A rating that can not be down graded.

You forgot 4. Senate = Ass Clowns

Buffet was right, we DO have a AAAA rating!

Tom L ¤
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:19am


We still have to live through at least 1 margin hike. It's only Monday evening.

It's a long way to Friday.


Aug 9, 2011 - 12:19am

@Tesla and fans of Canada's

@Tesla and fans of Canada's own Trailer Park Boys.

Dr G
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:20am

Wait until the Bernank notes

Wait until the Bernank notes from tomorrow are released. To the moon. Seriously.

Tom L Frontal Labottleme
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:21am


Yup, I have 14 acres and about 25 goats. 2 Dairy goats and a bunch of Fainters for meat. The young bucks need their shots/hooves trimmed/etc. tomorrow morning.

Got about a hundred chickens as well.


Economical Disaster
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:22am

I said things were going to change

..on a previous post 3 days ago I mentioned that the CARTEL were going to let GOLD go. I knew it

Turdle GG
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:22am


Thanks for that info. I can't believe that it was only about 36 hours ago that I was his interview with James Turk - gold was more than $100 off his $1,764 target at that time.

aurum argentum
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:23am

Trailer Park Boys

Oh man, do I love them..I have the whole series on DVDs as well as the movies. Can't get enough.

Randys Hamburger Picnic is epic...See it on youtube y'all....

Rum and coke please...

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:23am

POG up $100 in 24 hours.

POG up $100 in 24 hours. Amazing

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:23am

This should cover the rest of the night?

This should get us through til morning?

good night all (if I can sleep)

@Irene - thanks

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:23am


Nice! You way ahead of the rest of us...

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:24am

something is afoot

the Asians are serious about the yellow metal and they have the history to appreciate its importance. Perhaps this new outfit exchange in China was the booster rocket. It will require more firepower now from the Empire to run their smashdowns. This is getting friggin interesting.

I just saw a print of 1771. And the Nasdaq is tanking down 40 pts in futures already.

Could get very good capitulation at the open tommorrow and a good entrance for the Dow and a huge bounce. Question is will Gold buying rotate into stocks then and lead to huge Gold waterfall? Or is Gold finally asserting itself? Is Gold finally drawing the line in the sand? The Market is big now, maybe the Empire does not try to stand in front of this train?

FogHorn LegHorn BagOfGold
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:25am

novel enlightenment

BOG thankyou, things are happening faster and faster.

Turdle GG
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:26am

Silver not allowed to join the party

50c drop in 2 minutes

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:26am


Nice work! Sleep well... (don't look, no! don't turn back! you'll turn to salt - just walk away.... believe me you'll sleep better - Ag ouch!)

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:27am

Maybe rather than just cheerlead

can we take it for the warning sign that it is?

Friends, I don't know about y'all but I have a hard time celebrating the new highs in gold. What the events of this day have prompted me to do is double-check my preps and it brings me great sadness actually. Have I converted enough of my fellow citizens/family to what is actually going on? No, there are not enough hours in the day! And, there are those that will never be converted.

It brings me no joy in being invested in gold and silver, just the daily affirmation that things are going to end badly and there is not much I can do at this point.

Full Disclosure: I'm a Pisces, dreamer/empath/believer in all things are possible. But, even I try to remain grounded in reality. And the reality is, gold is telling us that


Tom L Frontal Labottleme
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:28am


I started in 2002. Thank LRC and the Mises Institute for opening up my eyes then. I even went crazy and built my house myself. My only regret is not buying even more silver at $5/oz. Ye Gods, I hate being poor.

Get a plan together and execute it, one step at a time. Oh, and have a wife who kicks more ass than you do. That's step #1.


Aug 9, 2011 - 12:29am


Have been on the road most of the day, trying to catch up with everything that's happenin! Wow! @Kiwi, yes, wish I woulda bought more on Friday. Although I always kinda feel that way : )

OK, brewed up a pot of the good coffee, broke open the bottle of a very special single malt, unwrapped a very special bud and some very special tobacco. I am ready. No way I am sleeping tonight! Good luck everyone, see you on the other side?????

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:29am

so happy

great show tonight, I'm thankful to be here in turdtown with all you folks watching tshtf. I'm prepared. You should be too.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:30am

We all pictured this day in diferent ways

Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds (The Beatles)


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