Weekend Review

481
Sat, Sep 22, 2012 - 12:16pm

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

  • Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60
  • Monday, 9/17: -$2.10
  • Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60
  • Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50
  • Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

And in case the action in crude this week left you feeling that global peace and harmony were right around the corner, I give you this to ponder: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-22/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-war-israel-will-occur

In that same vein, I was contacted this week by a nice guy who asked me to link a few of his prepping articles. I certainly hope you are using this time to full consider these topics: https://destinysurvival.com/2012/09/03/food-storage-how-to-calculate-for-your-needs/ & https://www.emergencyfoodstorage101.com/2012/08/07/being-prepared-for-power-outages/. Of course (shameless plug coming), you can find many of these items by visiting the Turdmart, a link to which is conveniently placed at the top of each page but copied below for your convenience.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/preparation-store

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  481 Comments

Dracula
Sep 23, 2012 - 8:41pm

Tungsten alloy is your friend!

I would buy some, but I don't have any gold. But for those of you who have, and even more important, who think that someone else know that you have, these fakes can be your best investment. When someone knocks on your door, what will you give?

Green Lantern
Sep 23, 2012 - 8:42pm

New Zero Hedge article on

New Zero Hedge article on Gold Coins.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/gold-counterfeiting-goes-viral-10-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-are-discovered-manhattan

New Commentary by Joseph Farrell taking it a step further

I hope you caught the last two paragraphs: here they are once again:

“Which was also to be expected. What is also to be expected is that as more and more stories of Tungsten making it into broader gold circulation, that retail sales of physical gold will certainly be impaired as end consumers become far more cautious about what they buy.

“And while we await more information, especially from the Secret Service, who is “on top” of this case, which we assume implies that gold is after all money, we leave readers with our conclusion from Tuesday: “with false flags rampant these days, we would not be surprised if this is merely yet another attempt to discredit gold, this time physical, as an undilutable medium of warehousing wealth. So buyer beware: in a time when everyone is broke, triple check before exchanging one store of wealth for another.’”

Given all that I have written here about the bearer bonds scandals, we now have the gold itself being counterfeited. That is to say, in my opinion, this story is related to the bearer bonds story. This may or may not be a false flag. It is conceivable that the banksters, under severe pressure already, are trying to suppress the price of gold. It is, I would suggest, equally conceivable that there is a bigger game – going back at least to 1928 when Hjalmar Schacht of the Reichbank visited the NY Federal Reserve, only to be informed that they could not find the Reichsbank gold(See Confessions of the Old Wizard: the Autobiography of Hjalmar Schacht, p. 245). This, plus the massive obfuscation concerning the actual amount of gold in existence, would also seem to me to present the possibility that someone, somewhere, is sending messages to the banksters.

And let’s not forget this one:

Fake gold bars out of tungsten a counterfeit story

I hope you caught the implication of the involvement of Ft. Knox:

“Whoever pulled this one on the gold bars had connections inside the government, big banks and also a top-of-the-line fabrication facility. For, counterfeit is not something new for the US government, it did this is 1964 when zinc dimes clad in silver were introduced. That’s why the pre 1964 coins are valued more. Elsewhere, early this year, another counterfeit story made rounds as some of the gold bars in the vaults of the National bank of Ethiopia were found to be gold plated steel.”

Well of course, this wouldn’t be the first time that financial oligarchs were caught culling and clipping coins. The real question is, “fake” gold-backed bearer bonds, and now…fake bullion bars… What does it mean?

Well, possibly, it means that the “fake” bonds represent real bonds. After all, one does not counterfeit what does not exist. But if such bonds were only intended for a select few, then, when those come due, you’d better have an awfully lot of gold(which means you’re going to have to skim it from the public market, plus have a lot of it that’s gone unaccounted for – that’s another story), or you’d better be ready to refinance the paper. In short, you’re looking at a whole tier of finance that the governments and banks are strenuously denying even exists. And the implications – think global leverage here – are enormous.

Or, perhaps this metaphor will help: there are two players: Venice, and everyone else.

See you on the flip side.

balz
Sep 23, 2012 - 8:43pm

I smell a smackdown

33-33.5 tomorrow

tyberious
Sep 23, 2012 - 8:46pm

How to Make Gold-plated Tungsten Alloy Bar?

Start with a tungsten alloy about 1/8-inch smaller in each dimension than the tungsten alloy golden bar you want, then cast a 1/16-inch layer of real pure gold all around it. This product would feel right in the hand, and tungsten alloy golden bar would have a dead ring when knocked as gold should. Gold-plated tungsten alloy bar would test right chemically, weigh exactly the right amount, and also pass an x-ray fluorescence scan, the 1/16" layer of pure gold being enough to stop the x-rays from reaching any tungsten.

The appliances of Chinatungsten gold-plated tungsten alloy bar and tungsten alloy golden bar as gold substitution.

Tungsten alloy golden bar and gold-plated tungsten bar could be regarded as the special present for some fields. If you are a broker in stock, manager in a big bank or insurance company, you can use Chinatungsten gold–plated tungsten alloy bar engraved with your company’s name as souvenirs to your VIP customers. It is a very decent present without costing too much, and also could attract more customers for your business.
Gold-plated tungsten alloy bar is the best choice if you are a gold dealer and attend some trade fair or put your gold products in the showcase. In case your real gold being stolen, you can choose gold substitution, gold-plated tungsten alloy bar to reduce any possible loss.

https://www.tungsten-alloy.com/gold-plated-tungsten-alloy-bar.html

Green Lantern
Sep 23, 2012 - 8:50pm

@Redwood

Indeed you are correct. Rickards says that those calling for an audit don't get it. They don't want to draw attention to it. And he also says, that he trusts they have the gold that they say they have. He might have said, he was in the dungeon but don't remember. The question is did he look under the hood, and why should I go on his word on that when he says that all his other calls are a result of good analysis from data points. Why wouldn't I want the same on this issue? I'm not saying there is anything there. Just leaves an open door. I'm not much of a person for excruciating detail but with what's going on here, I think some impeccable due diligence might be in order. Preferably somebody with OCD. I have the opposite problem whatever condition that might be.

Zoltan
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:03pm

Salted Bars and the RCM

DYODD on this conspiracy theory but a couple years ago the Royal Canadian Mint had a significant "loss" of precious metals. This was not a financial (dollar) issue but related to a loss of physical metal. Although it was always referred to in dollar terms it was a lack of physical metal that caused the imbalance in the books.

This is a secure facility with video monitoring and other checks in place and they were short the shiny at the end of the month. Very embarrassing in the old "trust" department. RCMP investigation was released Christmas Eve holiday and kind of white washed the whole thing (insufficient recovery from processing slag, some other lame excuse I can't even remember now). Down the memory hole it went.

How about this for an explanation. The good delivery bars they received and melted down to make coins turned out to be mostly tungsten. Ooops.

Rather than blow the whole scam wide open they just had to eat the loss and cover it up.

Appreciate any feedback. Feel free to hammer away.

Z

Torpedo Fish
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:04pm

wow!

A religious experience!

reefman
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:07pm

We're half way to $32.50

We're half way to $32.50 (from Friday's peak).

SELL! SELL! SELL! SELL! :) LOL!

(and you all laughed at me on Friday when I said $32.50 was in the cards!) (just bustin' on ya)

pforth
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:08pm

1st waterfall of the week...

Well we know from the COT that they were going to try something this week so why not start when the volume's low on Sunday night? After all, it's worked before. So now we've had a weak open and a 50 cent waterfall. No one can be surprised by this.

The big question has to be... will they be successful this time? Or will the underlying physical demand create a week of waterfalls and FUBM's? Stay tuned....

cpnscarlet
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:14pm

Hello - Still Same Sh-t, different day

So how have you been?

Turd actually said it all for me yesterday - Hot and Violent Summer? Not really for the PMs, but heck, one of our ambassadors is dead and the administration goes "Duh, it's UTube". I'm still voting for Gary Johnson.

And looky at this smack down...the Cartel at it's Sunday might best.

Same poop, different day. At least it looks like Ben Davies once again saw it coming - there's a man you can trust...most of the time. Wow..NOTHING HAS CHANGED. At least Ben thinks this smack down will be just a little "blast" before the "off". $2K by the end of the year. He's on my calendar.

Well, I'm back to school on Monday morning. The semester's going well. No challenges and I'm writing my Analytic Writing research paper on the LBMA and PM manipulation. Now there's a subject I've done some research on. Easy A.

So long, suckers...wake me when gold is $2400.

Big Dutch
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:15pm

Empire Strikes Back

The EE is the ultimate power in The Universe while Turdites are rebels.... But you know who eventually wins.

Video unavailable
redwood
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:20pm

Green Lantern

We have to leave for the possibility that some are bought and paid for and others are not. The question is who? From a multitude of things I've read I don't trust Rickards. He's very bright, informed but also sneaky for lack of a better word. How about duplicitous, take your pick. Those calling for an audit know there isn't gold there, or at the very least the amount allegedly reported.

Don't know if you remember the Fort Hood story about a year ago. Allegedly that was a cover up for the sequestration of some of the gold by the Bush family to protect against theft. I can't verify its accuracy, but that's a pretty far fetched analysis to not have some merit. The Chinese want US gold for all the losses they have sustained with US debt. So my guess Rickards is misrepresenting and covering up. You know the usual.

MrGuboci
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:21pm

WTF

I could see in my leveraged account that silver went down to 33.57 ( could have been lower but it was there for a fraction of a second ) , tried to buy but in a nanosecond it was back up 30 cents - 33.8 ;-( smells like short covering to me?? ) .

agNau
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:21pm

Cable just broke.....

Enjoy the ride!

Dagney Taggart
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:21pm

Yes balz.....

Words from our broker: We expect a bounce at 33. Then watch the 34.25 level. It we break up, we go to 36.xx. If we fail and break 33, we go to 30. Either way expect a retest of 30 and when it bounces from there, it will never be this cheap EVER again.

benque
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:25pm

Unusual nature in this decline

Something fishy about the timing and sharpness of tonights decline. Not at all like the usual MO. I would expect any sharp declines to occur around 02:00 hrs. This could go either way, but I can't put my thumb on it. Maybe Blythe is onto someone lurking in the weeds with massive buy orders set for 02:00, and is jumping the gun as a surprise attack, as it were.

I'll try to remain optimistic, but will dream of buying opportunities for tomorrow, just in case. For what its worth, I'd much rather see gains through to COT close on Tuesday, then weakness into Friday crimex close....then....well, off we go into the wild blue.

Zoltan
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:26pm

Spring 2011

It's like Deja Vu all over again.

But they can only manage a buck (so far, cross fingers, knock on wood, rub Timmy's toe).

Did we get Bin Laden again?

Always watch on Sunday nights now (once bitten twice shy). Same old, same old.

Watch a chart with the volume on and you can witness a crime in progress.

Mullet? Mullet? Any of the other worthless clowns that pose as "regulators"?

Z

PS Shout out if you get the rub Timmy's toe reference or if you have ever imbibed.

reefman
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:28pm

Silver drops from $40 -> $30 in 48 hours! ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY

Silver drops from $40 -> $30 SAME DAY LAST YEAR.

NOW THIS IS A RELIGIOUS EXPERIENCE !

Kcap
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:28pm

The Disinfo Agents on this site...

Are as obvious as ever.

We see right through you.

Thanks for identifying yourselves. You know who you are.

Kcap

reefman
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:32pm

THE ULTIMATE RELIGIOUS EXPERIENCE: MAY 1ST, 2011!

It was a Sunday night:

No comment:

reefman
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:33pm

@MrGuboci,How are you able

@MrGuboci,

How are you able to trade at this time on a Sunday? Are you in Asia somewhere?

Horst
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:38pm

Are as obvious as ever. We

Are as obvious as ever.

We see right through you.

Thanks for identifying yourselves. You know who you are.

Shut up... not everything's a conspiracy everytime silver goes down a couple of cents.

Sisyphus
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:39pm

@benque

My memory slips. I thought the Great Smackdown of last year started at about this time in thin Asian trading? For no adequately explained reason?

EDIT: Oops: Just noticed reefman posted the chart. Thought so.

tmosley Horst
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:40pm
onealpha
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:41pm
MrGuboci
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:42pm

@reefman

I am from Bulgaria and it is early Monday here:-)

reefman
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:43pm

It's been a looong road, but we are back where we started from.

It has taken more than one and a half years since we first hit $33.50 to get us to where we are today.... $33.50....

I still remember rushing out to buy a silver maple on Feb 20th, 2011 as we passed $32.50. It's sad that it's taken so long to get nowhere. And how many TRILLIONS have been injected in to the "economy" (banks)?

Feb 21st, 2011:

reefman
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:44pm

MrGuboci  Cool! You are luck

MrGuboci

Cool! You are luck your exchange is open so you can trade this move!

Dyna mo hum
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:46pm

I could have told you this was gonna happen

I bought a roll of Kennedy halves today. Only 40% kind and that little pile will go into my segregation can and marked as "under water" Dammit I had a feeling this smackdown would happen.

withoutwax
Sep 23, 2012 - 9:46pm

This is Very Clear...

Video unavailable

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