Weekend Review

481
Sat, Sep 22, 2012 - 12:16pm

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

  • Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60
  • Monday, 9/17: -$2.10
  • Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60
  • Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50
  • Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

And in case the action in crude this week left you feeling that global peace and harmony were right around the corner, I give you this to ponder: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-22/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-war-israel-will-occur

In that same vein, I was contacted this week by a nice guy who asked me to link a few of his prepping articles. I certainly hope you are using this time to full consider these topics: https://destinysurvival.com/2012/09/03/food-storage-how-to-calculate-for-your-needs/ & https://www.emergencyfoodstorage101.com/2012/08/07/being-prepared-for-power-outages/. Of course (shameless plug coming), you can find many of these items by visiting the Turdmart, a link to which is conveniently placed at the top of each page but copied below for your convenience.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/preparation-store

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
78%
NO
22%
Total votes: 139

  481 Comments

Bollocks · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:02pm

@tyberious

I heard they were melting them down to 1kg bars, not 100oz.

RRJJ Doctor J · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:03pm

Wow!  I have 100g PAMP gold

Wow! 

I have 100g PAMP gold bars. I'm damn worried now. Almost want to drill through one of them right away

Antrobus · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:14pm

fake gold bars

Looks pretty easy to get some good fake bars - just have to order them

https://www.tungsten-alloy.com/tungsten-alloy-gold-bullion.html

I imagine the "dragging magnet" test would tell them as fake pretty quick though. It's what we use in the shop.

redwood · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:15pm

Please spare us Dagney. 

Please spare us Dagney. What's this? While the US......???? Since when did Canadians become virginal. The last time I looked their mouths weren't any cleaner than anybody else's.

opticsguy RRJJ · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:17pm

RRJJ

Take an ice pick to it, or drive some hard sharp object through the middle. Drilling leaves shavings on the floor and there goes your weight.

Just drop it on a cement or tile floor. If it rings, it probably isn't fake. Tungsten does not ring.

· Sep 23, 2012 - 5:29pm
BagOfGold · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:30pm

TexasStacker...

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Wild edibles: Cattail pollen, harvesting the pollen for flour

Yum!...Yum!...Yum!...Pancakes!!!...

Wild Edibles: Cattail Pancakes

Have some fun for a change!...Get away from your TV & computer...Go explore what mother nature has to offer...Take a course on wild edible plants/buy a book on the subject!...You will find many tasty edible plants out there...even better than the store bought varieties!!!...

Bag Of Gold

onealpha · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:31pm

@rocoach

Re: coffee. I roast green coffee beans at home and can tell you from personal experience that i disagree with the article. Fresh roast green beans, brew 24 to 48 hrs later and you will be amazed at the wonderful flavor you experience. I have converted many cream and sugar coffee drinkers to my black coffee as there is no foul or bitter taste. Thanks for posting the article though. 

tyberious · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:32pm

Holy Cow!!!!

Houston police officer KILLS double amputee in wheelchair wielding a deadly … Pen

from Yahoo:

A Houston police officer shot and killed a one-armed, one-legged man in a wheelchair Saturday inside a group home after police say the double amputee threatened the officer and aggressively waved a metal object that turned out to be a pen.

Police spokeswoman Jodi Silva said the man cornered the officer in his wheelchair and was making threats while trying to stab the officer with the pen. At the time, the officer did not know what the metal object was that the man was waving, Silva said.

She said the man came “within inches to a foot” of the officer and did not follow instructions to calm down and remain still. “Fearing for his partner’s safety and his own safety, he discharged his weapon,” Silva told The Associated Press.

Police did not immediately release the name of the man who was killed. They had been called to the home after a caretaker there called and reported that the man in wheelchair was causing a disturbance. The owner of the group home, John Garcia, told the Houston Chronicle that the man had a history of mental illness and had been living at the house about 18 months. Garcia said the man had told him that he lost a leg above the knee and all of one arm when he was hit by a train. “He sometimes would go off a bit, but you just ignore it,” Garcia told the newspaper.

Silva identified the officer as Matthew Jacob Marin, a five-year veteran of the department. He was immediately placed on three-day administrative leave, which is standard in all shootings involving officers.

Bollocks · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:34pm

Hahaha!

Get a load of what they say at that fake gold bar site Antrobus just linked to!

"Tungsten alloy golden bullion is real, honest money and many say the best form of money the world has ever known. Tungsten alloy golden bullion is a store of value and a safe haven in times of crisis."

..............

"The tungsten alloy golden bullion is worthy of collection, it is a very good choice as a gift to VIP customers, friends and so on. It is similar to gold, but the price are much cheaper than gold, so loved by many people."

Jeez!

· Sep 23, 2012 - 5:38pm

Ft. Knox Tungsten filled gold

Ft. Knox Tungsten filled gold bars

https://youtu.be/lyIoskufs9E

I decided to do a little searching using google translator in Chinese since not much comes up in English. Well, well, what do ya know. There are literally pages upon pages of listings of Chinese Tungsten factories. Many which make gold plated items with Tungsten and discuss at lenght the problem with Tungsten filled gold bars. Apparently the guy was Russian. And I just discovered that Tungsten manufacturing was discovered by a Russian.

Chinese Tungsten factory that sells gold filled tungsten bars and other assorted goodies

https://www.microsofttranslator.com/BV.aspx?ref=IE8Activity&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tungsten-alloy.com%2Fchinese%2Fdistinguish-real-fake-gold-bar.html

And if you want to buy a gold plated tungsten bar. It doesn't seem like a problem. Ni hao ma? (You probably want to get somebody that speaks chinese.)

https://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tungsten-alloy.com%2Fchinese%2Fgold-plated-tungsten-alloy-brick.html

From another Chinese site.

40% bullion rising gold prices the Chinese market adulterated with Iridium or tungsten

https://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3a%2f%2ffinance.ifeng.com%2fgold%2fhjkt%2f20120822%2f6928599.shtml

"On a forum some time ago, it was said that a bank loan of 1 million Yuan, you must buy a certain amount of financial products and bars are allowed to loan. Additional financial products easier to understand, attached to buy gold bullion, but find it hard to understand, if you reprint the title is the real thing, it is not difficult to understand.

I do have first-hand experience with ICBC was [3.66-0.54% unit the Institute] selling one kilogram of gold, with invoices and proof, got the silver and gold processing plant for sale, subject to verification, was sold by the industrial and commercial bank, factory owner will receive, test the exact purity of gold, you must go to Nanjing, results reported in a week, the gold bar to launch the "Iridium". This gold and silver I under the factory boss friends hang out. This incident brings to my shock was enormous, which does not have good faith in the country, State-owned bank gold bars are also fake, there is nothing to believe in, and fake brands CHOW Tai Seng's gold was also tested, I despair. How people monitor and the penalty for that? That pit father country."

No dirth of stories on this in the Chinese media. And it looks they have the equipment to detect it. What was wrong what that NY guys equipment?

https://youtu.be/kCbc3MTppAU

We could do this all day but one more from Germany

Recently, the German television station ProSieben ran a news story covering W. C. Heraeus in Hanau, Germany, the world’s largest privately owned refinery.
In the story, Wilfried Hörner, the head of the gold foundry, shows a 500 gram bar
(16.0755 troy ounces) received from an unidentified bank. The bar had the right
physical dimensions to be an authentic gold bar, but one of the Heraeus employees
suspected something funny. After the bar was cut in half, you can see that the inside
is tungsten, with only a coating of gold on the outside.

Sorry folks. For American's maybe putting tungsten in gold is difficult but not for our neighbors. I think we can drop that theory Tons of stories. Maybe somebody wants to do the samething in Russian. It's seems they are also ahead of us in understanding what Joseph Farrell is saying that this might be a part of our hidden financial system and the culprits might be much higher than some small operation. The story bears watching. And absolutely, they can do the samething for 1 ounce gold coins.

This video probably merits a reposting even for you pro's. NO BIG ASS BARS. He has been warning you when the crowds come in, counterfeiting will be rampant.

https://youtu.be/HDB02Tzb6zk

https://youtu.be/K5qrKVASvEw

Bollocks · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:39pm

Eeek ... check your coins!

"Chinatungsten Online (Xiamen) Manu.&Sales Corp. is a very professional and serious company, specializing in manufacturing and selling gold-plated tungsten alloy coin for more than two decades."

https://www.tungsten-alloy.com/gold-plated-tungsten-alloy-coin.html

¤ · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:39pm

Euro gold

You would think that with this type of story in the MSM over in the EU that gold priced in euros is about to get a little crazy tonight and later this a.m. depending on where you live.

This would be a perfect time and another reason to try and crush it down before any momentum might occur from that announcement or plan. $2 trillion euro @ 1.30 is $1.4 trillion USD or do I have my math gear in reverse? It's entirely possible.

That's a lot of bond/asset purchases and euro gold should pop you would think. Or might something similar to the short lived QE3 fizzle/hangover happen quickly also in the EU?

$2 trillion is a very large number to float out there and we'll soon find out if gold gets smacked down tonight or tomorrow a.m.

Video unavailable
maravich44 Green Lantern · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:46pm

Green...

f the news, and everything else. Drums and piano, Steve ,back in the day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8M8R835Ck4

· Sep 23, 2012 - 5:47pm

Just my opinion, but

Just my opinion, but the global financial systems is falling apart.. War and violence breaking out all over the globe. Our food is poisoned and now everybody is running to their stack to see if their coins have tungsten in it. And we are focused on proper language etiquette?? I get it. Barnyard talk is for the barnyard. But come on. Sometimes a situation merits a little emphasis. And one day, I'll learn to say the F world like Robin williams. He brings it to an entirely new level.

Foul language warning.

https://youtu.be/9JsoLYAVKpo

· Sep 23, 2012 - 5:49pm

@maravich

You have a way of putting it back in perspective. Been jamming all day. Nobody wants to be my neighbor.

UraniumSprings UnicycleJuggler · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:55pm

@UnicycleJuggler - ultrasonic thickness gauge

To use these, it appears that you need to know the correct sound velocity for calibration. Anyone know what the correct sound velocity is for Ag and Au?

Oh, wait. I used the internet. Instead of asking a question, I am providing an answer! Pretty significant difference between Gold and Tungsten...

https://ultrasonicthicknessgauges.net/sound_velocity_chart.htm

Edit:

after doing a brief search on ultrasonic thickness gauges, it seems that there are many models available in the $700 to $2000 price range, and a few that are $100 to $150. Naturally the cheaper ones appear not to have a brand name, and / or are made in China. Forgive my suspicion, but does anyone have any actual experience using these? I would hate to buy at the cheap price point, only to discover that the product is, well... cheap. 

Sisyphus · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:56pm

F-ing story on TV.

I wonder where he is today?

Probably went into politics.

-----

Yep. Spin doctor.

CAUTION: This is a British political satire, and is not suitable for the easily offended!!!

Malcolm Tucker - The best of swearing
RRJJ ¤ · Sep 23, 2012 - 5:57pm

Drkpurplehaze, €2 trillion is

Drkpurplehaze, €2 trillion is 2.6 trillion USD.

Zoltan · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:03pm

NetDania Open

Gold Volume (first minute) 158,000

Price Drop $3.00

Eat that Bitchez.

Z

SteveW · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:05pm

Chinese gold

I read that the Chinese were remanufacturing their LBMA 400 oz bars as 1 kg (32.15 troy oz) bars and that rather than use the Imperial measure (that few countries adhere to, notably the UK and US) they preferred Systeme International.

maravich44 Green Lantern · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:07pm
Bollocks · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:14pm

Ricky Gervais...

An example of one of the funniest and most intelligent people (they often go hand-in-hand, I've found) who swears almost like it's an olympic event.

(I suggest start watching from 2.55 in as it takes him a bit of time to warm up).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSvYaY9KNew

opticsguy · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:20pm

edibles and obscenity

It took me two years, but I finally got a good crop of dandelions growing. I ordered some seeds, but they were a northern variety that died the first time it hit 95 degrees. Whatever variety survives the TX summers is now growing nicely in my garden. I had to dig them up from a neighbors poorly maintained hedge and yard. Antioxidant city.

If you want to hear the f-word, Tony Montana is it.

https://youtu.be/Ahh1rP0qL-s

I Run Bartertown · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:26pm

'Nice sounding' Use of the word

Mumford And Sons- Little Lion Man
JimmyTheHand · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:33pm

COT Report

The latest COT report has me baffled Turd.

tmosley · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:33pm

To insert a tungsten block

To insert a tungsten block into an existing gold bar, I would just hollow it out in the approximate shape, heat the tungsten a bit above the melting temp of gold and shove it on in there. The heat should melt the surrounding gold to give it a good seal. Then you just fill in the remainder with molten gold, and give it a good polish.

I would look for new shapes for bullion to emerge shortly, ones that are much more difficult to fake with hard, brittle, high melting point tungsten.

Admiral Ag Bar · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:36pm

I have a potty mouth too.

...and I'm getting in on this sweet, sweet action...

Big Lebowski - Every Single God Damned Shit Fucking Swear
¤ · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:36pm

RRJJ

Doh! blush

Thanks, that's what I thought originally and then second guessed myself in an obvious and very public mental math bloc. I do that sometimes with bond yields /rates and currencies. Oh well...

Soooo....a $2.6 TRILLION USD equivalent EU style QE is about be made available if only Finland gets on board. That's a HUGE number and pretty close to $3 trillion. You would think it would have a dramatic effect on gold in euros. We'll see.

Here's a site that does currency conversions. Probably should've went there first enlightened

https://www.xe.com/ucc/

2,000,000,000,000.00 EUR = 2,594,135,255,145.63 USD
Euro US Dollar
1 EUR = 1.29707 USD 1 USD = 0.770970 EUR

◀Convert again 2012-09-23 22:25 UTC

Admiral Ag Bar · Sep 23, 2012 - 6:39pm
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Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
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12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

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