Weekend Review

481
Sat, Sep 22, 2012 - 12:16pm

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

  • Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60
  • Monday, 9/17: -$2.10
  • Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60
  • Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50
  • Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

And in case the action in crude this week left you feeling that global peace and harmony were right around the corner, I give you this to ponder: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-22/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-war-israel-will-occur

In that same vein, I was contacted this week by a nice guy who asked me to link a few of his prepping articles. I certainly hope you are using this time to full consider these topics: https://destinysurvival.com/2012/09/03/food-storage-how-to-calculate-for-your-needs/ & https://www.emergencyfoodstorage101.com/2012/08/07/being-prepared-for-power-outages/. Of course (shameless plug coming), you can find many of these items by visiting the Turdmart, a link to which is conveniently placed at the top of each page but copied below for your convenience.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/preparation-store

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

TF

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  481 Comments

funthea Marblesonac
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:19am

Yes I agree the Fed will

Yes I agree the Fed will buy-up all the MBS and use them for backing... to a point. However, it is worthy to note that the Rentenmark was never legal tender. It did stop the hyperinflation and was used by the people, but was issued by Rentenbank not Germany herself. The official currency replacing the old post WW1 Papiermark, came out the same year as the Rentenmark, and was called the Reichsmark. Thou the Rentenmark and the Reichsmark had parity in conversion to the US dollar, their backing was not the same. The Reichsmark was GOLD backed just at the Goldmark was before WW1.

I bring this up only to signify that, thou the Rentenmark served its purpose and ended the hyperinflation of the Papiermark, it was not conducive as an official currency for world trade. That was reserved to the Gold backed Reichsmark.


Sep 23, 2012 - 11:19am

@benque: another DB

"I am not ready to put aside skepticism on the motives behind the report"

Another DB--not Deutsche Bank, but the Daily Bell has recently offered what I consider to be good insight in the sudden renewed respectability of the gold standard. They postulate that the Money Power--whomever one might postulate them to be--are using the Hegelian Dialectic and dominant social themes to guide the world toward global government, but that the Internet and the alternative media, what the Daily Bell calls the Internet Reformation, has slowed the process down by shining a light on it. Consequently the bad guys attempt to coopt the alternate view in order to bring things back on course. It appears they are trying to do that with the gold standard. They don't mind a gold standard as long as it is government controlled.

https://www.thedailybell.com/4213/Is-a-State-Run-Gold-Standard-Really-the-Answer

I often link to the Daily Bell because they are about the classiest "conspiracy" site on the web. I have no hesitation sending people who would be turned off by the Alex Jones/Truther contingent of the alterative new landscape to the Daily Bell. They are talking about many of the same topics, but without the angry histrionics that turns so many people off. They are also firmly grounded in the Austrian School and, if nothing else, they have some great interviews with good guys as Andrew Napolitano, Doug Casey and G. Edward Griffin and many others.

I don't mean to sound like and advertisement and I have no affiliation with the Daily Bell other than being a regular reader. I just think it is another valuable resource for those trying to navigate the paradigm shift.

Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:26am

Thanks Doc J!

I really enjoy your posts and I'm glad to contribute to the community. My interests are focused on permaculture as it relates to self-sufficient and survival. I am trying to grow every single edible perennial I can for my zone and sun exposure. My most recent gaffe was to buy paw paw trees raised from seedlings instead of grafted. Turns out, native seedlings won't produce fruit for about 10 years, while the grafted varieties will produce in just a few years.

I highly recommend The Survival Podcast for a number of reasons. Jack Spirko has a great website (he is kind of like the TF of survival and self-sufficiency - a very honest and dedicated guy!). Jack does lots of podcasts on edible plants and growing techniques.

Here's a podcast on unusual edibles: https://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/episode-601-sam-benowitz-of-raintree-...

Enjoy.

Nana
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:27am

The Truth, The Whole Truth and NOTHING But The Truth

BOTH parties ARE RESPONSIBLE for creating the abysmal state of current day AmeriKa.

BOTH parties ARE LEADING AmeriKa to the SAME endgame....Traitors, each and everyone of them....

The play of right vs. left is nothing more than a game to keep the sheeple in a constant state of turmoil, decent, discord and divide and conquer.....One of the oldest tricks in the book....

The only way out is to simply walk away from the system, ignore it, because it is irrelevant, useless and enslaving.

opticsguy
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:28am

@Nana

That video is shocking. Watch it disappear from Youtube in the next few days.

I guess I've been poisoning myself with Tostitos for years.

¤
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:30am

negative feedback

A brown hat next to the yellow one would work just fine and it could automatically negate or balance the positive yellow H/T's. When a person gets into negative H/T territory their post gets a faint gray tint to it.

Anyone that is purposefully trying to be difficult or trollish will be easily recognized as such.

A black hat (as I suggested weeks ago) would imply a poster being wrong or bad in some manner and I wouldn't want to get too negative in that manner as it's unnecessary and unfair to paint someone as bad. Some balance (brown hat) might be a good idea and it would actually give the poster some feedback and serve as a source of self moderation if the poster actually cares about public perception vs. intentionally rocking the boat with no regard to what the VAST MAJORITY of the site finds distasteful or even stays onsite to participate in. That's where I'm at currently and I believe the site would find that dual hat mechanism to be helpful in the short term and long run.

This doesn't imply that anyone is wrong or bad in any manner. Obviously, we all have our tastes and preferences the way we'd like to see the vibe be on here and at any given time the 'mix' is very different and I'm sure some of us stay away during some of those times. In all honesty and with humility I can say that I'm probably in that category for some or many of you and I respect that. I contribute a lot of material. Some might see it as garbage which is cool with me. I'm not concerned by it and that's what the IU is for.

Including the IU feature on the page where all the sites comments are shown would be a very helpful thing to everyone I believe. It would help others eliminate the chore of scrolling past my posts or others. Same with the (dual?) HT feature on that page that isn't available for whatever technical reason that I have no clue about. (Props to admin and tech staff, that wasn't a criticism)

If all of us were the same type of people parroting and re-enforcing each other it would be boring and get stale quickly. Prolonged hissing matches over content or comments has me logging off almost every time I see the 'mix' I stay away from.

No one is on my IU list and I intend on trying to be as inclusive as humanly possible to a point otherwise my current option is to log off and come on later. Works for me.

Harald
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:37am

@Lumpy

You're right in that if the London Whale fiasco had gotten out of hand, JPM would have been bailed. The FED knows many way to funnel "relief" funds to the big boys.

If JPM ever has a "Lehman event" it will be because the other banks have ganged up on them and brought them down as with Lehman. And that would be with the blessing of the Fed. As they said in the old James Bond movies: "They will have outlived their usefulness."

thurd aye
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:37am
Nana
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:40am

@ opticsguy

Shocking, yes.

It is our (community's) job to reach/teach others of danger. One by one we learn through each other and pass along knowledge. This site has some of the best info available to learn, to prep and to warn. We have Mr. T to thank for allowing us to share, prepare and uplift one another.....

maravich44 TF
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:41am
thisismynewname
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:45am

I had a thought...

After reading this morning's comments, putting several thought streams together - I came up with:

What if - the EE is able to provide additional naked shorts while QE is on the table? Their ability to add shorts may be correlated to their ability to get cheap and easy money? So if their money stream is guaranteed (for example, fall 2010 to spring 2012) they can manage the silver price assent by playing the "market maker". Once QE wasn't renewed (Apr 2011), they called in all of their favors (margin hikes, MSM shrieking that silver is in a bubble, etc) to setup the May Day Massacre.

Then the fall 2011 massacre (what's the cool name for this one?) happened because QE did not appear? And likewise the Leap Day Massacre because QE didn't materialize? And here we are - record shorts again on the COT - but QE is in play.

I'm starting to think there will be no major correction until the free money train derails. I'm sure part of this is my own confirmation bias as I BTFD on Friday and I'm hoping for a pop to take some cash off the table.

Nana
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:53am

@thurd aye

Thanks!

HeNateMe
Sep 23, 2012 - 11:57am

Coffee Parable

Beautifully worded parable yet no explanation on how to "be coffee".

I would rather be silver.

HeNateMe

treefrog Dyna mo hum
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:01pm

@dyna mo hum, re brownie recipe

new herbal recipe. same as yours, then add copious amounts of cannabis. makes the experience much more poignant.

withoutwax
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:05pm

Two Things...

1) GMO: that video is from Dec 2011 - why is it being released now? I've been an organic farmer for 15 years in France, and the French have always been suspicious of this new technology. Now the truth seems to be emerging that there is, indeed, a eugenics agenda.

2) Catherine Austin Fitts: I've just listened to the second in the series 'Mr Global', and it's packed with incredible information, including the statement "I believe my mother was murdered". She catalogues incredible fraud going back to her father's era, which is why I remain sceptical that JPM et al would/could be wrong-footed on anything that they've been up to since the Second World War. Listen to her interview and weep.

I hope, obviously, that people like TF and JW are correct, but the nagging thought in the back of my brain tells me this is just part of the grand plan, of going for a completely digital currency (gold-backed or not) and that if you're NOT a conspiracy theorist, you're not really getting the whole picture. It's really surprising to listen/read people who will not open their minds to at least the possibility of there being a long-term, well thought-out plan to take over the globe, including a plan to 'harvest' you for the income you can generate, then cast you aside. CAF mentions HAARP and weather modification in passing, including people making money out of tsunamis (weather derivatives) - subjects I've been looking into for years (as they affect crops) and there's plenty of credible studies out there which corroborate these phenomena. To suggest that conspiracies don't exist I find a bit bizarre.

https://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/74988

alphamorph
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:05pm

DB - Watch their hands, not their mouths

DB now has Blythe on board and was this week's big short seller. Why is my BH puckering?

JPM stayed (pretty much) on the sidelines.


Sep 23, 2012 - 12:21pm

re flux capacitor

I would be interested too, just so I could go back in time and call Puck a hypocrite.

thisismynewname
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:30pm

More fake gold bars

See ZeroHedge front page for details.

Patriot Family
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:33pm

The Flux Capacitor is Sacred

This is exactly why the flux capacitor (which really exists, I swear) is not released to the general public. It would be abused and is far too dangerous. It's taken billions of tax payer dollars to keep the conspiracy going. You do know DeLorean motors was shut own because they tried to include a flux capacitor as standard equipment, don't you?

thisismynewname
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:34pm

@watchingdogma

Quote:
Then the fall 2011 massacre (what's the cool name for this one?)

The Silver/Gold Fall?

Bollocks
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:35pm

@Dr Jerome

RE: "To cuss or not to cuss"

Really well explained! Someone said here earlier that it's what is said, not how it's said that's important. Balls. How it's said is just as important, and often more important.

"This leads us to those George Carlin videos..."

I'd add Bill Hicks to the list .

Nana
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:36pm

@ watchingdogma

Thanks!

Makes one wonder just how much real gold is out there and silver too.....Link to your post

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/gold-counterfeiting-goes-viral...

withoutwax
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:44pm
George Clooney
Sep 23, 2012 - 1:03pm

@Xty Flux capacitor hat tips in Star Trek

Found this on the Memory Alpha website:

"After telling Dr. Bashir he was leaving Deep Space 9 to teach at the Academy, Miles O'Brien jokingly claimed it was because 'somebody has to teach you officers the difference between a warp matrix flux capacitor and a self-sealing stem bolt'"

And, of course, for the true Trekkie, theself-sealing stem bolt has a rich lore of its own.

And to keep it topical...

Quark, on gold:

"Gold is good." Quark, Little Green Men. An hilarious episode tying the Ferengi to the Roswell Incident.

"Take that gold dust of yours. It doesn't have to be a total loss. I hear there are some primitive cultures who consider it quite valuable..." Quark, Who Mourns for Morn

Katie Rose
Sep 23, 2012 - 1:12pm

On Page Four

Nana posted a video with the title: "Must Watch!"

I believe this belongs on the Main Page Forum as it really is about life and death, especially the potential life and death of women due to breast cancer.

If I could give it a thousand hat tips I would do so.

Please, if you haven't watched it, go back and watch it now.

Thank You, Nana, for posting this.


Sep 23, 2012 - 1:14pm

Isn't Star Trek always topical?

fractional banking explained:

My favourite scene from trouble with tribbles star trek
Bollocks
Sep 23, 2012 - 1:17pm

French Central Bank password was 123456

A French citizen has unintentionally breached the security of the French central bank (Banque de France) over the phone and was freed by French authorities after being accused of “hacking” the central bank’s and triggering a 48-hours shut down of that particular computer system which handles the consumer indebtedness files (basically people who are flagged as having a very bad credit history).

The man was trying to go around the paid telephone consumer support system and got from Internet forums what he thought was a direct-line to the central bank employees (yes, in France, you have to pay for most form of telephone support). When asked for a code by an automated system, he entered 123456 and it worked – he had just breached the central bank’s security.

It gets better: according to the man’s attorney, 654321 would have worked as well. It looks like the French central bank password is using a checksum based on additions or other very simple methods… (lol, scary). Maybe it’s time to “beef-up” security…

https://www.ubergizmo.com/2012/09/french-central-bank-password/

thisismynewname
Sep 23, 2012 - 1:19pm

Other resources

I realized that I don't see what other people read very often. Right now - my daily routine is:

1. TF Metals

2. Zerohedge

3. 321 gold (https://www.321gold.com/) - I don't see this one mention much - if at all - there are two very good AG articles posted today

4. Trader Dan

5. Jesse's Cafe

6. What does John Know (this one doesn't have anything to do with the metals - but I go anyway - https://www.whiskyadvocateblog.com/)

7. Go back to TF Metals to see if I can be first.


Sep 23, 2012 - 1:19pm

@Bullocks: Carlin and Hicks (and Lenny Bruce)

Carlin and Hicks (and Lenny Bruce) were being deliberately provocative, trying to drive home a bit of social commentary.

Calling someone a douche nozzle because you don't like them or disagree with what they say is not even in the same league, you vacuous, toffee-nosed, malodorous pervert.

tmosley Puck Smith
Sep 23, 2012 - 1:24pm

Puck, Gold had no value in

Puck,

Gold had no value in the future world of Star Trek because it could be replicated. The only material that is known to be non-reproducible in this fashion is latinum, which is a liquid at STP, so is usually pressed with gold, giving the only remaining currency in Star Trek, gold pressed latinum.

The notion that the Federation doesn't have money any more is pretty foolish. Even in an economy of plenty where goods and most services are free, land and sapient labor remain scarce.

The only thing that really bothered me about Star Trek was the presence of war. With unlimited productive capacity, there are on resources to fight over. Land is a luxury, as is sapient labor, and both are really made moot by the notion of the holodeck. At that point the only reason for either to really be wanted is simply because of their scarcity. They are no longer productive. They are little more than conspicuous consumption something that I doubt any race of people would put up with dying for (the pols might, but war weariness would build very quickly, I think).

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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