Because I Said So

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:34pm

Just when world markets were seeking assurance, our esteemed and supremely qualified leader uttered this:

"Markets will rise and fall, but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we have always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said.

Nothing quite like living in FantasyLand. I hear it's particularly beautiful at this time of year.

How are you feeling about your gold and silver today? Let's see...Dow is down 506. The S&P is down 66. Crude's at $80. Copper and the grains have been pummeled. I know that silver is pissing you off but, considering the absolute demolition of everything that isn't gold, you should actually feel pretty good about it.

Speaking of silver, here's a 2-hour chart. When the selling of everything finally relents, silver will rally sharply. It will carry through 40.40 and it will move rapidly toward the highs of last week near $42.

However, gold is your clear, hands-down winner on the day. I have a last of $1714, up an amazing $62. There's more to come, too. First up, here's your 2-hour chart. It shows another "stair" higher.

More significantly, I've tried to recreate Trader Dan's weekly chart. Notice the clear breakout of the three-year channel. If it can hold in this area and extend gains...and it's hard to see why it wouldn't...a breakout of this magnitude is extraordinarily bullish. I can see why JPM came out with their "$2500 gold by year end" prediction today.

Three years is an awful long time so we must be careful. Gold could easily fall back into the channel and give us a "false breakout". However, the fundos are so strong at present that it may very well stay up and begin a rapidly accelerating extension higher. Watch this very closely as we may be about to be given a once-in-a-decade opportunity to make big fiat, real fast.

Lastly, I did switch a few things around today in order to take maximum advantage of what I see coming. In silver, I eliminated my Sep spreads and am now simply long the $42 calls. In gold, I dumped my October 1700 vs 1800 spreads and went long just the straight 1800 calls. I'm still long my December 1700 vs 1800 spreads, though.

Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

That's it for now. Keep the faith! TF

5:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As the Globex closes, gold is back to $1722. I can't imagine that it won't make new highs overnight, particularly when Asia is in full swing at around midnight to 2:00 am EDT. For your comic relief, I present below something I just received from a friend. It's the opening paragraph of a "SPECIAL BULLETIN", just released by MSSB. What absolute fools these people are. They can't even spell "committee" correctly! If you are currently working with a traditionally-trained "financial advisor"....well, you know what they say about a fool and his money.

Latest Report from the Global Investment Policy Comittee: Downgrade .

GIC Special Bulletin: Impact of US Credit Downgrade on Markets

Applegate, Jeffrey – Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

August 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT

The downgrade of US long-term debt by Standard and Poor’s, which is notable politically and historically, is having a prompt and negative short term effect on global financial markets. However, the next stop is not a recession—nor is it a drop in corporate profits. This a split decision on ratings, as the other two major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their respective top-drawer ratings for US debt. As this latest sell-off abates, expect the markets to refocus on the fundamentals: an intact global business-cycle expansion that in our view, should deliver double-digit profit-growth into 2012. Our base case remains that a US economic rebound will occur in the second half of this year and that European policymakers will eventually be forced to take more decisive action to stabilize their debt markets and the euro.

11:25 pm EDT UPDATE:

These late nights are wiping me out. Holy cow, gold is up another $42 as I type at $1755! The S&P is down 28. Crude is down another $4. The grains and copper are getting smoked. At least silver is hanging in there at 39.12.

Two things. Watch gold overnight. Santa's number of the final frontier is 1764. For whatever reason, his numbers usually pan out and he's maintained for weeks that 1764 would be defended by The Cartel. In silver, watch this triangle play out. Silver could collapse through 38.50 and head toward 37 but I doubt it. I expect silver to instead charge through the down-sloping line overnight and begin heading higher. We'll see. Anything can happen. Have a great overnight. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 8, 2011 - 4:25pm

What Markus Said!


Aug 8, 2011 - 4:28pm

Can't blame it on the Bushster

The teleprompter made him do it.

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:30pm

Bankruptcy - No. Cal.: Ch. 20 Lien Strip is ALIVE

Posted here.

Summary: Bankruptcy judge in Northern California rejects lender's argument. Homeowner IS allowed to strip off underwater second mortgage.

@DPH: I would sure like to talk to you personally. It is time to bridge that gap. Please email me through this site; I will reply, then it's time to chat.

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:32pm


I'm usually old school soul or R&B but I have broadening my horizons.

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:33pm
Aug 8, 2011 - 4:41pm

10 year T yields show we have

10 year T yields show we have an uncontrolled debt crisis, uncontrolled spending, and hyperinflation. What could go wrong?

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:46pm


I just bought my first allotment of gold. Have some silver but wanted to diversify the PMs a bit. Maxed the credit card to get it, am a bit shaky, but with the way things are going I can see PMs as the only monetary protection. Plus, I like the way gold looks. Bling Bling.

If it doesn't pan out (excuse the pun) then I'll just make jewelry.

P.S. One of my co-workers, remarking on today's stock collapse, told me to buy Apple. I'd rather eat the golden/silver apple my friend. I've tried to tell them but they don't listen.

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:47pm

Just the beginning.....

Gold does what it should do at this moment, let's see how gold reacts if the insane bonds buying the near future.

Silver just needs some more confidence to break through...realy break through.

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:49pm

Stolen from Trader Dan

Had to do it. A very cool chart. Thanks, Dan!

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:54pm

For the POTUS, WH, and Congress

It's A Small World Clock HD

Mr. President,

What the hell are you smoking?

Wake up and smell the metal.

The bank is bull.

The metal is real.

Aug 8, 2011 - 4:54pm

Illuminati calling card

S&P dropped 6.66% ~ 6th largest one day drop ever

The lack of sell triggers getting hit today tells me the algo's are juicing the drop. This is very orderly and orchestrated. Someone is buying all the way down right now, which tells me when the turn comes it is going to be a rocket shot up... as for the PMs, it's all good, Ben's warming up the helicopters.

Violent Rhetoric
Aug 8, 2011 - 4:56pm

Senate Banking committee probing S&P downgrade of U.S. credit ra

Yeah, that'll help

"FLASH: Senate Banking committee probing S&P downgrade of U.S. credit rating -aide"

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:00pm



Aug 8, 2011 - 5:03pm

Gold's Friday close

Gold will close on Friday at the US Treasury @ $42.67 Ahhahahaha!

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:12pm


Please check the update

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:15pm

5:10p BREAKING NYSE-listed

  1. 5:10p


    NYSE-listed share volume Monday 4th largest ever

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:18pm

Turd Check it out

I just found out that the widely followed and highly-visible-on-CNBC Dennis Gartman cut his gold holdings in half on Friday! Those of us in the precious metals investing arena have been saying for years that Dennis Gartman is the ultimate contrarian indicator! Reminds me of when he dumped his gold holdings at $550 in the summer of 2005 and missed the entire run up to $735! Another 34% run without Gartman on board will take us to $2250 (based on Friday's close)!!!

Ha ha ha ha ha what a loser!

New World Chaos
Aug 8, 2011 - 5:21pm

Blythe's blog found

Her very pompous blog/resume is here:

She's obviously too busy to check it today and ZH/SGS trolls are running rampant.

While Blythe's away, the trolls shall play...

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:30pm


Gold up 3.32%. Silver up 1.74%. And this idiot LOST MONEY!!!! If I can't make money on a day like today when can I????

Silver miners DOWN 7.5%. Worse than the market, with silver bullion up....??????

And CEF which is where I hold most of my gold and silver bullion, down also. Should have been up 2.5% based on the bullion price alone!!!!

No celebrating for me. Congrats to all who did make some gains today.



Aug 8, 2011 - 5:34pm


Just for those who haven't seen them:

Jim Sinclair interviewed by James Turk
Silver price update from Eric Sprott and James Turk
Aug 8, 2011 - 5:35pm

SENATE probe S&P

"Let's decide how we shoot this messenger." What a farce.

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:36pm


I make predictions for two reasons:

(1) I believe that the great strength of this blog and forum is the compendium of experience and wisdom of the contributors. If I can share my humble viewpoint with others, maybe what I say or share helps someone to make a correct decision, or at least become informed as to the variety of viewpoints out there, and take comfort in the knowledge that there is someone else that shares a similar viewpoint. I too have taken comfort from that in the past, so I KNOW how important it is to get justification for one's beliefs in the face of massive disinformation from TPTB; and

(2) I want to be able to look back and see if my analysis at the time was well-informed, and correct, or not, then if not, I want to reflect and see what it was that led me astray, or caused me to miss the issue, or the conclusion. I have tried my hardest to be moral, and correct, and to be aware, and keep an open mind. It is easy to get lazy and let others do the thinking, but I strive to keep my mind active, and to constantly question everything that I hear and see. I figure, that way, if I make a mistake, or go down the wrong path to a decision, it is solely my fault, and then I know that I can live with my decisions without blaming others. It has taken a long time to get here, but it is the right path.

So, it is easy to go back and read what I had already posted, plus, actually posting here, in public, keeps me honest with myself. It is plain and simple, no exaggerating, or having selective recollection.

So, with that in mind, I predicted the following, yesterday morning:

(1) Spin from mainstream media will portray that nothing is wrong;

========> correct

(2) PM's will suffer mixed fate: silver will be very volatile, closing up near $40.00; gold will cross $1,700 and close at $1,685;

========> missed that one, but what happened?

(3) Stocks suffer, down lower;

========> correct.

(4) Miners, I am not knowledgeable enough to comment;
(5) Europe announces their own massive version of QE, EUR/USD rises;

=========> correct.

(6) More pressure mounts to sack Geithner;

=========> Boehner, et al., are playing the politics on this one, lots of articles on this issue.

(7) The Bernank sits on his thumb waiting for orders to announce QE3;

==========> sure enough, watch Bernank announce QE3 tomorrow.

(8) China/Russia continue to bash US, with meek, timid response from Barry;

==========> perhaps the easiest prediction to make; Barry is a now correctly seen by the sheeple as an empty suit. We all know he is a puppet, nothing new here.

(9) Rumors of war grow louder;

==========> strangely, silent on this front. I cannot believe I missed this. I believe strongly that something is on the horizon on this issue.

(10) Major financial institution announces substantial losses, prompting emergency, high level meetings, leading to announcement of QE3 by Labor Day;

==========> right on cue, BAC gets sued by AIG, this morning, fraud, etc., epic wrongdoing, lawsuit exposes highest levels of corruption and mismanagement. The fact that this lawsuit is being filed is amazing. That tells me that the elite are turning on one another. The shit HAS hit the fan, cover up!

(11) Geithner "resigns" by end of the month;

==========> As Geithner says he is staying on, that to me is the surest sign that he is lying. He is out by end of August. Fact.

Pretty good, huh? Except for silver volatility. What the hell? That concerns me a great deal. I am looking for a major plunge in paper silver, and hence, the Comex price. I would not be surprised to see spot get below $36 this week, as there will most certainly be a raid. I hope to be dead wrong on this, but I just cannot shake my gut feeling on this one.

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:38pm

ZeroHedge QE3 prediction

So ZeroHedge has predicted QE3 to be announced tomorrow. What do you guys think? ZeroHedge, more often than not, gets it right. Gold prices after QE3 announcement tomorrow?

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:39pm

Did I hear him correctly?

I only caught the last half of Obama’s speech.

Normally I like to hear the words from a speaker in order to know what was really said, but with Obama, that is not necessary. The full text says it all. He is so absolutely predictable in how he reads from that teleprompter.

So according to Obama, the US credit rating is still AAA. He proves this by saying that Warren Buffet says so and that “most of the worlds” investors think so also. Later he says that the markets “continue to reaffirm our credit as among the world’s safest.” I wonder if he or any of his staff ever look at stock charts But even as he is speaking, the stock indexes are free-falling, there are riots in London, Morgan Stanley’s servers crash—probably overwhelmed by panicking investors, and our good friends at JPM say gold is headed to $2500 by the end of the year. I wonder what Buffet shorted today?

Obama then has the audacity to blame the problems on “a string of economic disruptions in Europe, Japan and the Middle East” that he identifies as “Earthquakes, spikes in oil prices, slowdowns in other parts of the world.“No problems here. In Obama’s world, the credit downgrade was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back. This was certainly not his, nor Timmy’s, nor Ben’s fault. But he cannot deny that a problem exists, though he would if he could. So he vilifies congressional representatives that demanded fiscal change and declares that they refused “to put what’s best for the country ahead of self interest or party or ideology.” Perspective is a funny thing. Although they have some controversial planks in their platform, I thought, above all, the Tea Party wanted fiscal responsibility. Wouldn’t a balanced budget be good for the country?

But Obama has a different solution: “Tax Reform” (meaning higher taxes) and “modest adjustments” (meaning cuts) to health care. I can’t see him cutting much. I expect he will keep pressing for this until he gets it… He winds up the speech with a shameless appeal to our patriotism to deflect attention away from the real problem. America deserves that AAA rating due to our universities, productive workers, innovative companies, and adventurous entrepreneurs.” This is a fabulous segue into his praise of our servicemen. Hard to stay angry at him when he discusses their sacrifice. But, I have a problem with the ethics of attacking political enemies under the cover of a eulogy for our military personnel who were recently killed. Two issues, two speeches!

But the credit rating isn’t a reflection of the US people and their fine qualities, it’s a reflection of Washington cronyism and our sycophantic politicians who enjoy their perks and are indebted to their supporters and lobbyists. And now the Senate wants to investigate S&P. That ought to help! It’s the age-old strategy of “attacking your accuser” when you are in trouble.

Obama! It’s time to man up, take your share of the blame, and dedicate yourself to helping the people who voted for you, not serving the banksters who funded you.

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:40pm

GreenSpahn is a barbarous relic

Greenspawn, doing his best Mr. Magoo imitation, noted over the weekend that the US will never default on its debt because it can always print money. Obviously he escaped his nursing home. One wonders why he is allowed to pontificate on anything anymore now that it should be apparent to anyone with an IQ reaching triple digits that printing money doesn't work and at some point people will understand on a fundamental level that paper, is well, paper. Perhaps Greenspawn thinks that he is still the Maestro, when in fact the only thing he orchestrated was blowing bubbles. He is a barbarous relic best forgotten, a fool who thinks he has something to offer the sheeple. His legacy should be summarized in three words--"I blew it." The bubbles, that is.

PS- 1101 on the S&P is a 38.2% retrace of the entire move from 666 to 1370. I think we get there tomorrow and my guess is that it will hold. Just a guess.

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:44pm

some bonds are already "free

some bonds are already "free falling" in price. Of his own making debt will be obummers's reelection waterloo. His handlers had already concluded long ago that with the amount of chaos he was capable of creating, that he might not get re elected for a second term anyway. The handlers plans for consolidation of the once great American republic into the worlds largest socialist debtor state is right on schedule. If you have not secured metals, at this juncture it is getting late, and you might want to think more about securing proper quantities of food and other staples so as minimize any hunger or discomfort caused directly by the interruptions of trains and trucks delivering these items to your local grocer.

rhome123 Icarus
Aug 8, 2011 - 5:45pm


Hi: Icaus

I own some CEF too----imho, even tho it holds physical gold and silver its traded as a stock and people sold it into the rally and it went down---it will go up again am not selling mine. Keep the faith my friend.



Aug 8, 2011 - 5:47pm

QE3 probably will be revealed around Jackson Hole

My bet is there will be a few more down days (AKA mining equity fire-sale) in the broad market while gold goes higher and silver ranging around 40. Looks like Blythe's plan is to drive silver buyers to gold so that she could have some breathing room. The current gold / silver ratio and margin requirement make gold more attractive to hedge fund speculators. I think it's intentionally that way.

Aug 8, 2011 - 5:50pm

Well Said Doc J - 10,000 Hat Tips!!

Obama! It’s time to man up, take your share of the blame, and dedicate yourself to helping the people who voted for you, not serving the banksters who funded you.
dmunjal rhome123
Aug 8, 2011 - 5:59pm


Then why was GTU (same management) up over 4% today?


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