Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 7, 2012 - 3:33pm


Likewise with the dry powder.

In terms of putting our current position in context, I believe that T.A./algo factors are bringing in money from the sidelines, and not least, prompted by expectations of QE. There is also the promise of the effects a new goldprice record in Euro and Rupees.

These are all formidable considerations. However, we have had no shortage of formidable considerations in the past, and the cartel responds to them all in the same way; let the metals rise till they have the profit takers on their side, and then attack. Then we get the elevator down.

We are not there yet, but they will try it on. If they fail, they will keep retreating to a higher price and try again, till it works. They can short to infinity if they really wanted.

Once that elevator down starts, nobody wants to catch the falling knife, they stand back, and watch out below.

The critical point here, is that it is business as normal so far; the criteria for HEH (being a profound change in the politics and structure of the PM market) has not yet shown its face. Unless and until it shows its face, I'll start taking silver profits just before we get to $40, and gold just before $1800.

Chicken Little
Sep 7, 2012 - 3:36pm

How Government Stimulus Works In Canada

Three contractors are bidding to fix a broken fence at the Prime Minister's Residence, in Ottawa . One is from Calgary , another is from Halifax , and the third is from a First Nations . All three go with a Sussex drive official to examine the fence. The Calgary contractor takes out a tape measure and does some measuring, then works some figures with a pencil.
"Well," he says, "I figure the job will run about $900. That's $400 for materials, $400 for my crew and $100 profit for me." The Halifax contractor also does some measuring and figuring, then says, "I can do this job for $700. That's $300 for materials, $300 for my crew and $100 profit for me." The First Nations contractor doesn't measure or figure, but leans over to the Sussex Drive official and whispers, "$2,700."
The official, incredulous, says, "You didn't even measure like the other guys. How did you come up with such a high figure?"
The First Nations contractor whispers back, "$1000 for me, $1000 for you, and we hire the guy from Halifax to fix the fence."
"Done!" replies the government official. And that, my friends, is how a Government Stimulus plan works.
Sep 7, 2012 - 3:45pm

It was a long week!

2012 Democratic Convention Schedule – Charlotte, NC

4:00 PM – Opening Flag Burning Ceremony – sponsored by CNN

4:05 PM – Singing of "God Damn America" led by Rev. Jeremiah Wright

4:10 PM – Pledge of Allegiance to Obama - led by Whoopie Goldberg

4:15 PM – Tribute to George Soros for his help in creating and financing the Democratic Platform - Nancy Pelosi

4:30 PM - Reading of the Democratic Platform - Nancy Pelosi XXXX Canceled. Will be passed without reading.

4:30 PM – Tribute to the Occupy Wall Street movement for all that they have accomplished to unify the country, improve employment, and boost the economy. - Harry Reid

4:45 PM – Jobs seminar “How to have a successful career without having a job.” - Al Sharpton / Jesse Jackson

5:00 PM – Travel Seminar; “Great Vacations I’ve Taken on the Taxpayer’s Dime” - Michelle Obama.

5:30 PM – "Family Values" Seminar - Eliot Spitzer (via Satellite)

5:35 PM – Real Estate Bargains Seminar - Tony Rezko

6:00 PM – Home Mortgage Seminar - Barney Frank

6:10 PM - Pledge of Allegiance to Obama - led by George Clooney

6:15 PM - Airing of Grievances by the Clintons

6:30 pm - Kinder, Gentler Bombing Techniques - Bill Ayers

6:45 PM – Paying Your Fair Share - Timothy Geitner

7:00 PM – Free Gov. Blagojevich rally

7:15 PM – Tribute Film to Brave Freedom Fighters incarcerated at GITMO – Michael Moore

7:30 PM - Dramatized film re-enactment of Obama's single handed capture of Osama Bin Laden - Michael Moore

7:45 PM – Personal Finance Seminar - Charlie Rangle

7:50 PM - Commitment to US border security - Atty Gen Holder

8:10 PM - Pledge of Allegiance to Obama - led by David Letterman

8:15 PM – Media Seminar “Bias in Media – How we can make it work for you” – sponsored by CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, the Washington Post and the New York Times

9:00 PM – Denunciation of Bitter Gun Owners and Bible readers - Dem Natl Cmte Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

9:15 PM – Energy Plan Symposium / Tire Gauge Demonstration / Profiting with Green Investments - Al Gore

10:00 PM – Ceremonial Waving of White Flag for IRAQ , & Afghanistan

10:10 PM - Pledge of Allegiance to Obama - led by Barbra Streisand

10:15 PM – Obama Accepts Oscar, Tony and Latin Grammy Awards

10:20 PM - Obama accepts Congressional Medal of Honor for Bin Laden capture

10:25 PM - Obama accepts Greenpeace Hero Medal for instant cleanup of Gulf oil spill, and blocking of Keystone Pipeline

10:30 PM – Official Nomination of Obama by Bill Maher and Chris “He sends a thrill up my leg” Matthews

10:45 PM - *** Break for installation of additional teleprompters ***

11:00 PM – Obama Accepts Nomination as Lord and Savior

11:45 PM - Feeding of the Delegates with 5 Loaves and 2 Fish - Obama Presiding

12:00 AM – Celestial Choirs Sing (Food stamps distributed to all delegates as they leave.)

1:00 AM - Convention Hall cleared and cleaned

3:00 AM – Biden Delivers Acceptance Speech


I hate both main pol parties, so make one up for Repuckes....

Just don't gore my Libertarian ox :-)

Sep 7, 2012 - 3:54pm

Thank you Bollocks!

I was sitting on call options I bought for silver, October 34's....that were literally at an exact 300% profit in 7 weeks....and just wondering what to do over this very uncertain weekend. What with the German High Court, and the Bernanke two-step....

BUT when I read that Goldman says "QE NEXT WEEK", I said, "wait a second....that was for the muppets, wasn't it?"

Exited the entire position at the height of profit. Your post gave me courage to do this, thank you. Probably did it a few days early, but I don't even care.

Uncle Ted has just reaffirmed that JP Morgan not only isn't covering their shorts, but they're adding new ones!

I do believe Von Greyerz is right, silver will go to triple digits and perhaps with nary a stumble. BUT, JPM could be planning one last rape'fest just in honor of Turd and all those here. They're trapped under those's growing, and so will their desperation. They don't need to take it to 26 again.....all they'd have to do is wait til 35-37....and take it to 30. That'd cover all the new shorts and then some.

Meanwhile, I wait on the sidelines(for once), profit in reposition with some 2013 calls.

Your move, Blythe.

Big Buffalo
Sep 7, 2012 - 3:57pm

Now that it seems..

silver is firmly in an uptrend, it would certainly be nice to see some pullback (without breaking the up trend). Get some more physical stuff.

Sprott: My opinion only here - he's a snake oil salesman. Why buy his stocks when you can buy the real actual physical stuff yourself. Pay yourself the damn storage fees. If you want quick in a out, why not DGP or AGQ. Most of the little guys will and would never take physical delivery from Sprott.

I don't know, I guess everybody has to make a buck.

Sep 7, 2012 - 4:13pm


Gold CoT just as expected. Gold Cartel issues new paper silver to satisfy spec demand.

Silver CoT incredibly interesting for the second week in a row and leads me to think that, in fact, the initial stages of my summer "forecast" have, indeed, begun.

Just like last week, spec silver demand was NOT met with fresh paper shorts. Instead, the Silver Cartel again chose to dump silver longs to meet the bids of the specs. THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL. Another 5,742 longs dumped this week. For those keeping score at home, from a high of 47,747 three weeks ago, the smaller banks have now shed 15,450 contracts or 32.3% of their gross long position. In three weeks! All to satisfy spec demand! While price has risen from $27.85 to $32.41!!

The questions are: What happens when the smaller banks, noticing that JPM is remiss to issue more shorts, turn on JPM and stop selling? Indeed, what happens when the smaller banks join the specs, begin to buy and really put the squeeze on JPM?? Would it be hot and explosive? Would it perhaps be historic?

Chew on that this weekend.

Sep 7, 2012 - 4:19pm


Turd, if you're trying to make me regret exiting my calls...

You're doing an okay job. ;)

Honestly, I'm a 99% phyzz player, so I do hope you're's time for the monetary insanity in our world to end.

Balance must be restored.

agauinvest TF
Sep 7, 2012 - 4:24pm


I'm hoping Turd is right, but to me, this could also simply be (wisely) selling into strength after having bought weakness and being happy with that level of profit for only a few weeks' parking of $$:

"from a high of 47,747 three weeks ago, the smaller banks have now shed 15,450 contracts or 32.3% of their gross long position. In three weeks! All to satisfy spec demand! While price has risen from $27.85 to $32.41!!"

Sep 7, 2012 - 4:27pm
Sep 7, 2012 - 4:35pm


Every rally that is taking on superexponential (faster than exponential f=e(t) in normal chart , or in semi log chart, faster then linear ) growth rates is going to be smacked sooner or later, with aftershocks playing out on the time scales that depends on the speed of growth and scale of value increase. Silver rally up to April 2011 was such one. Superexponetial. And high value gains. So it got smashed, as I warned it will based on these same assumptions ( and probably I was no the only one) in March 13, 2011.

For a reference, here:

(dismiss most of the text unrelated to chart itself)

There are no natural processes in Nature that can grow superexponentially without collapse. Same , on different time scales and value scales, is true for all human activities involving at least material things like money which is connected to economy. Every superexponential process, especially those governed by so called power laws, runs into collapse due to exhaustion of whatever resources it is using, in finite time. On other hand, exponentially growing ones in theory can proceed in fact indefinitely long, hockey stick or no hockey stick, if resource supply delivery can keep up with it. Which may be a problem as the size of increase per time unit gets very huge and may exceed the capacity of the bottleneck of the supply process.

Neither silver or gold prices, nor printing presses, nor debt growth are different. Once they enter superexponential growth phase, one has to look very carefully where there is a crash around the corner, as its assured. In silver in 2010-2011, such growth lasted 6 months. So, that might be a useful period to watch out for longer term superexponential growth sustainability in this market. If the printing press works superexponentially, then hyperinflation will kill the currency with the same effect on silver/gold prices vs. other commodities. A collapse, in many cases back to exponential growth, in one of most spectacular Human exuberance case (Nasdaq 1999-2000) its not even in sight yet. The money supply could not keep up with the superexponential growth of index, as cash was moved away from even must do investments, and loans taken against future stock growth.

Of course, if humanity finds new energy with superhigh EROI, higher than oil had in the beginning by exponential factor, it may support other superexponential processes longer. But, with current energy sources, impossible. As, in the end, everything stops at energy as everything uses it, the more complex system is, the higher its metabolic rate per unit ( power used per unit mass).

Excuse me for expansion, read only the beginning, it relates to PMs.

Sep 7, 2012 - 4:44pm

latest Jim Comiskey

Hats of to Jim, the man is just great

Video unavailable
Sep 7, 2012 - 4:54pm

Cashed Out

Today I cashed out the BV account except for a pittance left for reasons I myself really don't understand. :) Made a very nice bundle of fiat and it'll all go into phyz shortly. I just don't trust metal I don't hold in my hand. Call me nuts. Today just seemed like a good time to make the switch. Suppose Blythe and the Monkeys are nursing their sore wings somewhere?

Sep 7, 2012 - 5:01pm

Sold all my First Majestic today

I made a handsome profit today and thought I take it. I'm expected a smash down next week or the week after. Thereafter, I'll buy on the dip.


Darth Smoker
Sep 7, 2012 - 5:03pm

How I explain "why buy silver?"

I carry two 1/2 dollars, one 1964 and the other fiat.

What is the values of these two coins?

This 1/2 dollar would have bought 3 gal on gas in 1964 and the same 1/2 dollar will still be able to buy 3 gal of gas today. Inflation is not the price of goods going up it's actually the purchasing value of our currency going down. This is the true definition of inflation.

Do you think gasoline will continue to go up? Buying Gold/Silver NOW will be just like buying gasoline now to use in the future. Describe the high correlation between Gold and Crude Oil since 1950
Sep 7, 2012 - 5:23pm


Here's The Latest COT Report From The CFTC:

The commercial banksters have increased their net short position again this week . This is the sixth change in a number of weeks, They are continuing to show a trend that has also accompanied a significantly higher silver price trend as expected.

The banksters increased their shorts to 77,217 from the previous week's level of 76,613, but decreased their longs by a considerable amount from 38,039 to 32,297 contracts last week.

The Banksters Are Continuing To Pound Shorts Into A Rising Price Trend
It's Amazing To Witness This Seemingly Endless Increase In Their Net Shorts.

The most recent percentage of net bankster shorts as compared to the total Comex silver inventory has increased (slightly, this week), to 158.86% (this is a significant rise from 138.83% last week and is now roughly 110% higher than the re-test low made on 7-15-2012 at 48.76%. Thus, we have seen a nice trend in progress now for 6 straight weeks.

Here's how the chart shapes up:
Notice The Net Short Percentage Has Risen Farther Above The Top Envelope Line Signaling The Trend Is Only "IN PROGRESS AND NOT IN AN EXTREME CONDITION. Soon, The Envelopes Will Start To Turn With The Trend. We Have A Long Way To Go Before Things Get Into Extreme Territory. This Is Not To Say We Will See A "Straight Up Trend", All Trends Move In Some Type Of Stair-Step And/Or Corrective Phase Thrusts.

Steady increases in the bankster net short positioning should continue as their pattern of shorting into price rises will continue until they see that exhaustion is occurring. Typically, It becomes extreme before they reverse their agenda. Price is now $7 above the low of $26.75 where we began this reversal. It's on its way to higher levels. There are a lot of contracts to accumulate and to eventually unload. The banksters have a long way to go.These patterns will continue.

The Media Shills Are Now 100% On The "Push QE3" Bandwagon As Expected Some Time Ago.The Anticipated September 13th Announcement Should Materialize Along With All The Incredible Meetings And Events Surrounding Europe This Month. It Should Be Very Interesting To Watch.

The registered category has a dramatic look, as well, this week. The net shorts as a percentage of Comex registered silver, has risen to a level of 585.31% from the 491% last week.

The Net Short Percentage Has Continued to Rise Above The Top Envelope Line Signaling The Trend Is Only "IN PROGRESS AND NOT IN AN EXTREME CONDITION

There Is Almost No Resistance On The Way To $35 Silver. Jump On The Train---It's Leaving The Station!

Now Get To Your Coin Shop Before They Run Out!

Sep 7, 2012 - 5:25pm


obsession about QE is choosing the wrong door.

QE is ongoing. Bernank cackles under his breath.

More than likely we will find out a later date that Bernank also shipped boatloads of dollars to the ECB. Don't quite know how that works but the FED bailed out countless foreign entities in 08' remember?

its all slight of hand and silly tricks along with MOPE. Its not only a farce but a desperate lie.

Of course if nothing is 'said' we could sell down very sharply creating churn. Wall Street adores churn like a clown loves getting laughs.

Brett L
Sep 7, 2012 - 5:43pm

....enough of the political rants!

Sure, we're in an election season with mudslinging all around us, but does this blog comment section need to be participating in this silliness? Posting a video of a guy ranting politics does not mean your hands are clean. The policies of neither candidate are necessarily "metals friendly", so can we get off of the politics? If there are immediate actions that are influencing the markets, I can understand that, but posting or engaging in any of the ranting and talking points of either party seems counter to what the comments section of the Turd blog is here for.

Sorry, I just wanted to get that off of my chest. Hope everybody has a great weekend!

Sep 7, 2012 - 5:57pm


Things are definitely heating up and $1700/$30 might be in the rearview mirror for quite some time.

The Doors "Whiskey Bar/Alabama Song/Backdoor Man/Texas Radio/Love Me Two Times" Live
Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 7, 2012 - 5:57pm

Fear and Greed

All you suckers need to get your asses out of the paper markets. You know the game is rigged and yet you are still messing around in their crooked-ass casino?

Be thankful that the real metals are easily obtainable for fiat toilet paper. Stack it up and sleep tight knowing you are right. This is not that hard to understand.

S Roche
Sep 7, 2012 - 6:03pm

@Zoltan re Lease Rates

Bad Data...again. Kitco are a waste of time imao, but I can see it has got its hooks into you as it is repetitive.

My suggestion...take it up with Kitco senior management. I tried and they are unresponsive.

Sep 7, 2012 - 6:21pm

"be still and just keep doing

"be still and just keep doing what, over the past 12 years has kept you safe and your wealth safe guarded"

Haven't been on this train quite that long, but the past couple of years have taught me plenty. Just gotta keep on stacking, a big wave is coming. Gonna need something solid to stand on.

Sep 7, 2012 - 7:37pm

@Rui, sure Judy Collins...

... but don't forget the Chairman of the Board.

Frank Sinatra - Send in the Clowns
Sep 7, 2012 - 8:26pm
DayStar Lumpy
Sep 7, 2012 - 8:45pm

Stackers Could Care Less

Lumpy, you said that you could care less about JPM getting into trouble with its massively leveraged silver derivative position. The problem is that the derivative market is orders of magnitude larger than the combined GDP of the world. When the derivative markets crumble, they will take down all the banks. The closed banks will cause businesses to fail and commerce will grind to a halt, because there will be very little money and no way to transfer it over a distance, so the long distance supply network will cease to operate. Since unlike the Soviet Union when it collapsed, Americans do not generally have gardens to grow food, there will be mass starvation and probably mass looting, rioting, and burning in the cities, and this will further disrupt the supply chain. The result will be starvation and death for many. Likely it will be severe enough to affect your own livelihood unless you are off grid in western Montana or someplace. From my perspective, while I think this scenario is likely to happen, I do not wish it to be so, but pragmatically there is nothing I can do except prepare. JPM was designated to fail since it swallowed the Bear Sterns silver pill. As Ranting Andy says, Protect yourself and do it now!


Sep 7, 2012 - 8:55pm


That Frank S capture makes him look a lot like Jamie Dimon. With apologies to Frank S fans and I wish Dimon could do something useful like singing also.

El Gordo DayStar
Sep 7, 2012 - 9:07pm

Stackers care less...

I do not see quite as dim a picture as D. Star, at least in the neck of the woods where I hang out. During hurricanes where there are supply disruptions, power outages, bank closures, and the like, things generally go on in a civilized manner. The press will always find a place where the looters are active, but the looters are generally active there all the time anyway regardless of the state of disaster we live in, and frankly, given the absence of government law enforcement, handling things at the local level might be more efficient and more effective. No question there would be major disruptions and changes in our life styles, but believe me, this is America and Americans are quick to adapt, to open new lines which are efficient, and to discard old systems which no longer work. We don't often talk of the devastation of war time, but we must consider that as a possibility as well as just an economic implosion. There are plenty of risks out there which could cause problems, but neighbors taking care of neighbors is the way this place started out, and it can continue that way. Just maybe at a little slower pace.

Sep 7, 2012 - 9:17pm

crank generator

One of those smaller radio/combo generators that I mentioned on here yesterday is on the Prep site that TF is linked to. Kaito/ $79.99

Just saw it in one of those new ads I see flashing around the site.

Nice job by Admin. on the noticeable new site changes and overall site functionability

Sep 7, 2012 - 9:32pm

jim rickards is right

He is right as rain about the timeline of the last few weeks.....his twitter page rocks

Sep 7, 2012 - 9:34pm

action and reaction - - -

Good call El Gordo. Good people quickly get together and deal with things.Community spirit becomes very powerful in a disaster. Here in Christchurch N.Z. the people got together and saved the situation after a massive earthquake recently. The entire central city was in ruins with bank vaults left open and all types of shops smashed and open for looting. Almost nothing was touched. Even the criminals behaved. Good people mostly far outnumber bad and soon get things under control.

Sep 7, 2012 - 10:02pm


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