Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 7, 2012 - 11:46am

Turd's call

I do believe you are correct Turd, I'm sure they will allow gold and silver to drift upwards ready for a smackdown mid next week. But I believe it will be short lived and that this will be the last significant dip for some time.

Ultimately we don't care holding physical, but if you have a bullion trading account, it might be a good opportunity to cash out and buy back at the end of the week.

Maybe some sneaky EURUSD and Gold Puts could gain some fiat for physical purchase?

Just my two penneth.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:46am

I've been profit taking today

I've been profit taking today on my options. The reason why is because we are at the top (and even went over the top) of the very agressive trading range. This range, if it holds, will take us to $50 by mid December. I'd rather lighten up on a day like today, and wait for another better entry price on Monday. I'm now about 1/3 options, and 2/3 cash.

By the way, I have thousands of ounces of phyzz, so this is my "toy money" I am playing with. I am also looking at buying a new camera since mine is now about 7 years old - so I cashed out some money to pay for it next week. Hey, gotta live a little too you know! :)

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:52am


If you use a Windows machine, try just doing a screen capture of the charts, save as .jpg and use the image. Search for the "Snipping Tool". Hope that helps.

reefman Horst
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:54am

@Horst, Profit taking is the


Profit taking is the hardest part of making money.

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:00pm

Coordinated CB action squeezes EUR shorts /propels gold/silver

Central Planning Sends Gold To Seven Month High As EURUSD Hits 1.28 On Massive Short Squeeze

Total meltup panic and confusion in all but the US equity market where the INTC punch has sent stocks reeling, as an epic, Volkswagen-like short covering squeeze has taken the EURUSD up well over 100 pips in the past few hours (with technicals now running rampant as predicted three months ago), and where gold has now soared by nearly $40 on the day, sending it to just shy of $1740 and at the highest level since February. And all of this is happening without the Fed having announced QE, which it very well may not as it would then be seen as a largely political organization, or the ECB having bought a single bond under its restarted conditional monetization program, which paradoxically still needs Spain to crumble and demand a bailout before any of its bonds are eligible for purchases. In short: total centrally planned confusion, whose ultimate achievement will be to scare the last remaining non vacuum-tube based traders out of the market.

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:01pm

The hardest part about making money?

For the Fed....the hardest part is turning on the printer

Just A Regular Guy
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:10pm

QE3 has already begun

Guys and girls, the US 10-year does not go down by 0.1-0.15% in under 30minutes, as well as USD dropping in value without someone of significant buying power buying up the debt. As Rickards said, QE3 is a done deal.

It took about 2-3 days of bond-rallying in Spain/Italy to drop their rates, and if Jim Willie's idea of interest rate swaps is correct (which if you look at the Spain 10 year versus the US 10 year the inverses correlation to my eyes [without doing say an R-square correlation] looks pretty convincing!) then the US has no other options! It cannot twist anymore, it must buy debt, as the US-10 year was moving north and getting close to 1.75%-1.8%! Higher 10 year = higher interest rate payment on their debt!

Now the next question is whether or not there will be further asset purchases next week? Remember the fed said @ Jackson Hole they might say purchase stocks or more mortgage backed securities.

Now this has got me thinking further.... What if the end-game is (obviously) a reintroduction of the gold-standard and that the gold is moving from the bad guys into the good guys hands. That is to say that for whatever reason Bernanke/Obama are DELIBERATELY trying to blow up US-Banks? See if Wall St. controls congress and everything else, what if the government at the moment are doing this on purpose? Not only will the pay-off the debt with cheap money and probably have gold outside of the US they can access, but once the corrupt people are gone the system is reset.... To fight it via fiscal cutting was not working because all/a lot of the congress-people are paid off, so they only way to really win, is to take the prize they (the corrupt) want away from them.... worthless pieces of paper. So the smart corrupt guys (if there are any) buy gold and live on, but i'm sure the good guys have that covered (receipts etc./all the Draconian laws about privacy and electronic monitoring) and all the douche-bags are left with a bank-account of worthless dollars....

I mean why would the central-bankers who apparently know stuff about trading/money be doing this apart from debt? We know we have to pay off the debt and it is obviously breaking the system at the moment, but what if it is a play to flush out all the corrupt banks/big-wigs? People, ordinary people, will obviously be hurt, but hopefully to a lot lesser extent than the big people (if they don't have hard assets). I know this sounds absolutely nuts, but maybe, just maybe, the good guys are in control, but barely. The need to keep the economy turning over one-way or another, to help pay the debt (while accumulating gold on the sly that we obviously don't know about), but they're going to use this to kill the banks!

Phoenix-ing anyone?

EDIT: I saw this last night and my jaw nearly hit the floor - apologies to Mr.Turd if you don't like the link - it's from Bloomberg - a video interview with BILL GROSS (aka "The Bond King") saying it's time to dump bonds and buy gold

JackT kingboo
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:16pm

@ kingboo

With all due respect, the hardest part of QE is STOPPING the printer.

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:16pm

that clowns mouth

we sure have lifted off this hot summer into an explosive finish. we are still 2 weeks away for sept 21....loving every minute of this, and may even being taking just enough of a profit tonight to get the wife out to some nice eats this weekend. texts are even coming in from friends that are still not in, even for 1 freakin liberty head dime. i have to bite my lip. would love to say we are done w/ 30. if we go back there, well nothing would surprise me at this point. history in the making?

Fred Hayek ¤
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:18pm

@DPH - maybe they're worried about gold hitting EUR highs

Andy Hoffman's been making a big point of this in his past few blog entries. Gold is only a couple % off its all time highs in both euros and Indian rupees. Imagine what happens when nearly 2 billion total people have just seen gold surpass its all time highs in their currencies? That probably lights a new fire under demand in europe and India. So, TPTB need to do . . SOMEthing to try and stop that from happening and their choice might be to bring down the dollar relative to them to try to stave off those two catalytic events.

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:20pm
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:22pm

RE: Lindsey Williams Interview

Nick, I covered this a lot last night on Harvey I listened to Lindsey, and like you said, it is a lot of work, as in "I-must-not-pull-out-hair!" wishing he would ever get to his 5 minutes of real news. He drives me crazy with his padding the dialog on an hour long show where he has five minutes of something to say.

My money is on Skousen because he fits with prophecy. The bit about the elite just wanting to take over does not fit with culling the herd or the effects of WWIII that will happen when the ME kicks off. It is certain that if there is a war, we will lose the grid, and that certainly will thin the herd, as in about 90%. The elites may want to do this without a revolution, but they don't want to do it without thinning the herd. See the Georgia Guidestones. The American elites may want to just get along, but the overarching plan of WWIII (see Albert Pike's 1871 recounting of the plan for three world wars) will see to it that we get a herd culling event.

Lindsey went an hour fluffing about stuff he says every interview, and then he got to the end, and didn't even have time to explain what he meant by "trade war". Also, it looks to me like Draghi kicked off the currency wars yesterday with his QE to infinity announcement. Next up should be trade wars where you see tariffs going into place. When the interest rates take off, Katie bar the door! Rapidly rising interest rates will cause bad, bad problems for interest rate based derivatives, and when the quadrillion in derivatives starts coming due, Katie, put two bars on the door! <g>


Beastly Stack
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:28pm


But Silver is not impressive whatsoever!It should be well above 34- today with this move in gold and the 300 pt move in the dow these past couple of days.

Gold is King!I could only imagine where silver will be if the equities turn lower.

Don't mean to be a downer but it is what it is!

I think Turds watch should be turned into the WARNING on this alone!

Beastly Stack
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:30pm

Just dumped mine

3363 after my last post

Don't trust what I see!

Just A Regular Guy
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:32pm

Some further points about the deliberate collapse of fiat...

So we know the CBs around all the world are buying (off market) gold. Why? Because it helps stop the accumulation of it by the "wrong" people. It means those in the PAPER-MARKET will have less and less gold to play with as people stand for phyiscal delivery and it will further squeeze the price until as JW and other says the paper-price iszero0 because there is no more gold in the bad-guys vaults.

Remember too, based on stats people see reported from the US about employment/inflation etc. are cooked to keep the plebs in line, as much as they are cooked here too in Aussie Land, do you think the governments are lying too us? You bet! So let us assume too that they are saying cutting back on stuff or taxing us because they are buying gold off market and keeping on the down-low because THEY KNOW the system is so corrupt and unstable that it MUST collapse. How many people of the general public check the gold reserves of a country per year? Not many. Do miners disclose who they are selling too? Nope. Would a government coming out and telling it's people they're taxing them to buy gold spook them? You bet!

This leads to my next point - perception versus sight.

You see, one thing I have learnt over the last few months is not just listening to what they (Central bankers/politicians) say is the take-home message, but understanding how they are managing our perception. If we can use our smarts, like we do here (the majority of times) and look at the stats, break them down etc. etc. we can get a closer version of the "truth" than the one they are selling us. Joe average doesn't have the power to do this, they want to know who won the footy/NRL. The kind of resources/information we @ TFMetals have gleaned from many different people is infinitely invaluable (I believe) (e.g. the podcast people Mr.Turd has interviewed). My rushed and elementary knowledge I have built up over the last 6 months about economics/government policy/markets etc. has enabled me (as far as I am aware) to cut through so much more bullshit than I could have done before.

Remember governments don't want them (the government to collapse) because then the country is FUBAR. I'm sure they have a backup-plan, and maybe, just maybe, the whole gold idea really isn't that too far fetched. We here @ TFMR are just a few years early.

Anyway my 2c worth. Please share some ideas :)


Sep 7, 2012 - 12:36pm

@Beastly Stack

YTD Silver +16.68%

YTD Gold +8.74%

But it's not a contest between the two. Gold just has some catching up to do.


Doc1800 Beastly Stack
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:39pm

Not sure what in the world you are talking about

/GC up 2% , /SI up 3%- you would like to see silver lead by 2X but man silver is acting fine for where gold is. When it gets let loose then we will see a much higher return but that hasn't happenned yet

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:42pm

Who is the "Coug"

referenced in Turd's post? Maria?

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:48pm

@ Dr. G (Lease Rates)

The spike is complete:

Gold Lease Rates

September 07, 2012
1 m -0.1120% +0.2280
2 m -0.0470% +0.3230
3 m -0.0022% +0.4078
6 m 0.1947% +0.6947
1 y 0.4740% +1.0140

Have noticed in the past that there is a delay in the numbers sometimes. That might explain the data being behind the chart. I copied and pasted my last chart/data at the exact same time. Guess the numbers were delayed.

Now having established that, where else do you get this kind of spiking (from +.5 to -.5 then back to +.5 in less than 48 hours)? This is complete BS and a canary in the coal mine to the manipulations that go on.

Watch for the flat chart on Monday. Would love to know how much metal gets "rolled" on this sweetheart deal.

Turd? S Roche? Beuhler? Buehler?


Sep 7, 2012 - 12:53pm


I decided to use today's spike to finish most of my repositioning rather than get closer to the wire. Closed out the majority of my Sept 22 expiry equity options today. I was especially happy to be able to buy back the GLD170 puts that seemed like a good short (sell) on Feb 29 when the market crashed. Fortunately I went with the September contract and so I profited from the time premium even though the short is still OTM (out of the money).

I bought 4 tubes of silver Eagles yesterday with profits and it didn't feel at all bad to be paying current prices with silver over $32.

I've replaced the expiring positions buying Jan 19 SLV35 calls and selling Jan 19 SLV35 puts. Also bought Oct 20 SLV35 calls at 0.33 yesterday and today they're 0.55. I don't usually buy such short term but I plan to sell half when they double then ride the rest thereby protecting myself from a near term crash.

Sep 7, 2012 - 12:58pm
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:09pm

Added 900 Oz XAG at 33,22.

Added 900 Oz XAG at 33,22. Average 31,04.

Also I like this now very much closer then earlier:

Sep 7, 2012 - 1:09pm


Today's Close: As i said, i see a close around $34.00 on SILVER (NYMEX)....with more running in the GLOBEX market

Gold close: $1750

Monday: Gold will run towards $1775, and Silver will run towards $35.00

Support: GOLD 1700 (will be a major support line for any sell-offs triggered next week)...

Silver $32.00

Next week target...

Silver: $35.00-$37.00

Gold: 1800

GOOD LUCK....Have a great weekend....

Play: Start looking into SLV OCT 37 CALL (could move substantially by next week)...

Sep 7, 2012 - 1:10pm

1933 St. Gaudens case

What I find fascinating on this is how the government in this case says, since this is stolen property, no matter how you got it, it is given to the legitimate owner. That is the correct outcome (though sad for the former 'owners'). Yet when Sentinel steals customer segregated funds (by using them as collateral for a loan), the courts side with the banks against the legitimate owners.

Sep 7, 2012 - 1:17pm


You convinced me - bought 30 Oct37s... And yes - I do have a gambling problem - anyone got that number?

Silver Alert
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:18pm

Something for your Calendar next week Turd

Wednesday is definately going to be an interesting day. Sept 12th the German high court rules if Germany's participation in the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) is constitutional. If they say no, the EU self-destructs. Yes is a green light for more Euro printing. Could be good for gold either way, what do you think?

I thought the picture went well with the title of this blog:

Sep 7, 2012 - 1:20pm
Silver Alert thisismynewname
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:21pm



Haole Guy
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:24pm

@ Reefman

I'm getting killed on UVXY I hope it rebounds or else I threw away about $400 since June assuming it doesn't go to zero. Then I'll be at a $600 loss

Sep 7, 2012 - 1:29pm

Canada closes Iran embassy..

hmmmmmmm????? Canada has closed its embassy in Iran and will expel all Iranian diplomats in Canada within five days, Foreign Minister John Baird said on Friday, denouncing Tehran as the biggest threat to global security. "Diplomatic relations between Canada and Iran have been suspended," Baird said.....MORE


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