Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 7, 2012 - 11:03am

Days like this

The Shirelles - Mamma Said
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:04am

Looks Like We Broke Resistance!

Trolls are going to have to regroup. LOL!

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:04am

Silver ahead of NASDAQ on the year

after eclipsing the DOW and S&P earlier these past couple of weeks.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:05am

I smell a February 29 takedown

Same pattern.

Overextended rally, and just when everyone seems to believe we're back in business : TIMMMMMMBBBEEEERRR!

Hope I'm wrong.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:05am

Silver hi hoe

Who needs amusement parks. I have some shiny.

What a ride, what a ride.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:09am

I feel....

Adam Sandler - I Feel Pretty - Anger Management

i'm feeling very sad about the dollars that i own today. Must convert! Dollar getting hammered!

Green Lantern
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:10am

My Dear Extended Family,   If

My Dear Extended Family, If you have eyes to see, coordinated central bank monetary and fiscal stimulation action is taking place. Yesterday was "Draughi Day." Today the Chinese officially released massive fiscal stimulus on top of the already monetary stimulus. Watch for the US Fed to chime in. QE to infinity MOPEd as sterilized is falling into place. Please review my post from last weekend to you on the illusion of monetary sterilization. Gold is going to and through $3500. The approach some long term gold bulls took toward gold, initiating a temporary short directly after Labor Day, is now in the process of backfiring badly. Regards,
Jim My Dear Extended Family, Monty Guild, a friend of mine for more than forty years, is the most honest and capable man, in my opinion, in money management. I respect Monty's feelings on many matters, certainly the macro picture. Monty, like I, believe it is possible that coordinated central bank actions in the USA, EU, Japan and China are being discussed. The economic problems are so severe, so international, so global, so entwined, so insoluble and still caused primarily by the greed of 1990 to present finance in the form of OTC derivatives that only coordinated global action can kick this can one more time. Gold is truly going to and through $3500. The gold business is the best business to be in. Respectfully,

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:10am

Silver Lining

Rilo Kiley - Silver Lining (Video)
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:12am

Collateralizing loans with PMs

I used PSLV to collateralize a loan with a 70% haircut 5 year fixed at 6% I could have taken a variable at better rates, but that would have defeated the purpose. I did make the loan when PSLV was around $20 and I had a collateral call when it got around $11.50

Raoul Dusentier
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:13am

@Turd: What are your thoughts


What are your thoughts on that the cartel will do something similar to what they did during the spring and let the prices rise signficantly for a period and then they will perform series of large attacks against the metals. Does you think it is likely that something similar will happen now?

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:13am

Dearest Turd

Any chance you could comment on the lease rates?

Gold Lease Rates

September 07, 2012
1 m -0.3440% -0.0040
2 m -0.3740% -0.0040
3 m -0.4080% +0.0020
6 m -0.5020% -0.0020
1 y -0.5480% -0.0080

Funny how the chart spikes back to "normal" already even though the rates haven't changed yet. By next week it will be flat as a pancake. Just another lease rate spike down the memory hole.

Sorry to harp on about this. It is a big deal.


Sep 7, 2012 - 11:14am

From last thread

"For Traders:

I wouldn't be selling silver now unless I thought that QE would not be announced next week.

If you think there is a chance that it won't happen, or won't happen overtly, then today or early next week is a good time to book profits.

Happily, as a phys stacker, I don't have to worry about such gut wrenching decisions."

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell for QE next week. There are no mainstream economic indicators for the Fed to justify new easing. GDP is still up and unemployment is down. Even is that IS BS data, it's what the Fed uses and what 90% of the population believes, so nothing to warrant further easing for the time being.

Air Garcia
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:19am

considering selling in front of the takedown?


you planning on selling your options around the 35 mark prior to the takedown? not looking for trading advice - just wanting your experienced opinion. . .


Sep 7, 2012 - 11:20am
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:20am
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:25am

Hahahah @ Jon 'nutless' Nadler

I'm sure everybody here shares my distatste for that dizzy clown over @ kitco. He published his latest commentary a little prematurely. He was very pleased (and gloating in his usual condescending tone) to note how G&S had erased most of their gains in the overnight session.

Jon, you're a joke, everybody knows it!

How can anybody be so consistently assed up regarding a market in which they cover exclusively. (rhetorical, clearly he's sucking off the elite teet.)

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:26am

SEND IN THE CLOWNS - a beautiful song tho

Award winning work by Judy Collins

Video unavailable
Dr G Zoltan
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:28am

@Zoltan: Lease rates

Zoltan, the lease rates have changed. Your data is incorrect, but the chart you posted IS correct. See here:

Gold rates all have a positive change as of this moment. The 1 year is up +1.0160 to .476%. That matches the chart you posted but not the data.

Green Lantern
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:32am

I don't think there's a

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell for QE next week. There are no mainstream economic indicators for the Fed to justify new easing.

Watch Dollar-Euro cross-rates. Currency Wars.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:34am

Why is it?

My ship always seems to come in when metals are cruising up. Then at the precise moment my ship runs out, BAM! Cartel raid. FU, Shnoz, you know you should convert fiat now but you can't. This metals game is one big elaborate ruse that some jackass with access to my information is playing just to get his rocks off by playing with my emotions.

Such is life on 100% commission.

This rally isn't the blastoff. I fully expect a massive raid. Only this time I'll be ready.

<Insert> Clip of William Wallace yelling "HOLD" that I could not find.

Dr G Horst
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:35am

I don't think there's a

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell for QE next week. There are no mainstream economic indicators for the Fed to justify new easing. GDP is still up and unemployment is down.

All economic indicators are STAGNANT. QE is coming. The chance of it happening next week is certainly MUCH higher than the 0% that is being alluded to in that statement.

Nick Elway
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:36am



@SRS I listened to it..(that's a lot like work)

full notes is the previous thread

Agree: Currency wars portend start of derivative collapse (competitive devaluation)

Agree: Trade wars mean collapse is soon
Agree: When Fed announces higher interest rates: collapse is well under way, it is too late to prepare

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:38am

The tears of sad and 'short' bankster...


What must the large position/short clowns be thinking today?

Video unavailable


Fr. Bill
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:38am

Cashed Out the Mad Money at 33.50

For my amusement, I have about 5 percent of my BV holdings segregated in their own part of the tracking spreadsheet, and I buy the dips and sell the rallies with that part of the BV holdings. So far this month, I've increased my net silver holdings by 15 ounces.

I agree with those "pessimists" (aka "realists") who expect a whammeroo smackdown in the next few days. And, then, the mad money goes back into BV shiney.


Sep 7, 2012 - 11:38am

"Watch Dollar-Euro

"Watch Dollar-Euro cross-rates. Currency Wars."

In that respect it would make sense, but I wouldn't count on it just yet.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:40am

Ok, just sold ~40% of my

Ok, just sold ~40% of my paper longs right here with silver at 33,5. Maybe it'll go to 35, 36 before we get the correction, but I feel better having cashed something out right now.

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:42am

(No subject)

Video unavailable
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:43am

More bank clowns...

Pretty intense scene if you've never seen the movie...

THE DARK KNIGHT (2008) - Bank Robbery Scene
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:43am

Survey Says....A glimpse into Turdville

I closed the investment profile survey. I couldn't get the charts or file into this post. Visually, it's much more informative. Conclusions: People put their metal where their mouth is. Turds hate bonds. Dry powder is available to many Turds. A Turd's home is his/her castle (not much RE outside of that). Thanks to those who participated. If someone explains how to get excel data into a post, I'll repost with charts. 1. Percent invested in STOCKS Response % Count 0 34.1% 31 1-10% 30.8% 28 11-20% 5.5% 5 21-30% 5.5% 5 31-40% 6.6% 6 41-50% 5.5% 5 51-60% 5.5% 5 61-70% 2.2% 2 70%+ 4.4% 4 91 2. Percent invested in BONDS Response% Count 0 82.2% 74 1-10% 7.8% 7 11-20% 6.7% 6 21-30% 3.3% 3 31-40% 0.0% 0 41-50% 0.0% 0 51-60% 0.0% 0 61-70% 0.0% 0 70%+ 0.0% 0 90 3. Percent invested in CASH Response % Count 0 8.8% 8 1-10% 50.5% 46 11-20% 14.3% 13 21-30% 8.8% 8 31-40% 5.5% 5 41-50% 4.4% 4 51-60% 2.2% 2 61-70% 3.3% 3 70%+ 2.2% 2 91 4. Percent invested in PHYZ Response % Count 0 2.2% 2 1-10% 7.6% 7 11-20% 9.8% 9 21-30% 12.0% 11 31-40% 12.0% 11 41-50% 19.6% 18 51-60% 9.8% 9 61-70% 3.3% 3 70%+ 23.9% 22 92 5. Percent invested in REAL ESTATE Response % Count 0 67.8% 61 1-10% 8.9% 8 11-20% 5.6% 5 21-30% 5.6% 5 31-40% 1.1% 1 41-50% 5.6% 5 51-60% 1.1% 1 61-70% 3.3% 3 70%+ 1.1% 1 90 6. Percent invested in PAPER COMM Response % Count 0 63.3% 57 1-10% 18.9% 17 11-20% 5.6% 5 21-30% 4.4% 4 31-40% 1.1% 1 41-50% 3.3% 3 51-60% 2.2% 2 61-70% 0.0% 0 70%+ 1.1% 1 90

Sep 7, 2012 - 11:46am

Silver steals the spotlight from gold

Sept. 7, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT

Silver steals the spotlight from gold

Demand’s poised to rise, but watch out for silver’s volatility

By mpicache[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Myra P. Saefong), MarketWatch

Reuters Silver outperforms gold this year: Silver futures are up 17%, while gold’s up less than 9%.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver has been a top performer among major metals this year, and it looks set to continue to steal the spotlight from gold, with investment and industrial demand for the white metal expected to rise.

“We could see a spectacular performance in silver” during the rest of the year, said Julian Phillips, a South Africa-based editor at “Silver, in addition to its demand [and] supply disjoint, will attract huge investment demand.”

Already, silver futures prices /quotes/zigman/699341SIZ2+2.67% trade above $32.60 an ounce, up about 18% for the quarter to date and up 17% from the end of 2011. Gold /quotes/zigman/699338GCZ2+1.84%, at more than $1,700 an ounce, has seen a quarter-to-date gain of 6% and less than 9% rise for the year.

“Investors see precious metals like silver and gold as hedges against the debasement of paper currencies,” said Elliott Orsillo, co-founder and portfolio manager at Season Investments LLC.

Much of the recent move in both silver and gold has been a reaction to rising expectations for more monetary easing on the part of the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, which tend to devalue currencies.

Orsillo warned that the market might have gotten a little ahead of itself regarding those expectations. “We could see a pullback and a better entry point [for silver] in the next couple of weeks,” he said, noting that silver tends to be more of a “high-beta play,” much more volatile than gold.....

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