Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  454 Comments


Sep 2, 2012 - 5:27pm

Um, not so easy

If you are a nice normal person, it is not so easy to enter this dreadful, infested hell-hole (not that I am not sure many of you aren't delightful people - I just don't much like a crowd - to those already committed, Welcome!). I have admittedly anecdotal evidence, but close to the home, of this. Luckily we are insanely attractive people, and marrying into the place is just a bonus!

Eric Original
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:33pm

Here's what I do, not saying

Here's what I do, not saying it's right for everybody.

I hat tip the livin' bejeezus out of whoever is FIRST!

I also tend to hat tip 2, 3, 4, if they say anything clever, funny, or useful.

It's a TurdTown Tradition. A moment in the Sun. Embrace it! Aspire to it!

Andy Warhol's 15 Minutes of Fame Trailer
Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:36pm

@ Cobalt

Sounds good. The info I got was from a Canadian official but it's been decades as I said and I can't remember what Dept. the guy worked in. I guess he thought I was one of those U.S. hippies that were hiding out from the draft back then. Guess nobody told him the Army didn't draft midgets.

BagOfGold Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:36pm

Short Stack...

I know lots of folks from the US who own property in Canada!...However...as far as working in Canada...that is another jurisdiction...& would require paperwork from Immigration!...If there is a will...there is ALWAYS a way!!!...

https://dignam.com/policies/#NonResidentsOfCanada

Bag Of Gold


Sep 2, 2012 - 5:42pm

re getting eaten by polar bears

I meant working here, indeed. Not owning property.

Cobalt Silver
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:44pm

Da Bears are OK

I just keep a bag of marsh mellows handy to toss at them should they come by for a visit. In all honesty I wager I am much closer to you than any polar bears up here. Even common black bears have been beat back to the other side of Toronto. I was amazed on a holiday 15 years back that the black bear can be found as far south as Florida. There have been recent reports of polar bears wandering south a bit due to traditional feeding patterns being disrupted by retreating ice but still were talking well north of the 60th. I have not crossed the border since 9/11 for obvious reasons.

Eric Original
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:44pm

Xty

Earlier you were trying to warn people away from Canada (in your own self-interest, I might add!). You forgot to tell them about the 9 months of winter, and 3 months of blackflies.

For the record, I love Canada! Great Fishing, Great Whisky, and Gravy on your French Fries. What could be better?

Canadianisms

Cobalt Silver
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:54pm
Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:55pm

@Eric Original

For the record, I love Canada! Great Fishing, Great Whisky, and Gravy on your French Fries. What could be better?

Canadian Ale.

thesandbox
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:57pm

Israel/Iran

on the MSM side of things...I guess Patraeus is going over there to "explain" things. https://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/02/israeli-prime-minister-calls-fo... "Israel's prime minister on Sunday urged the international community to get tougher against Iran, saying that without a "clear red line," Tehran will not halt its nuclear program. The tough language from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflected differences that have emerged between Israel and its allies, particularly the U.S., over how to deal with Iran. Israel has warned that the Iranians are quickly approaching weapons capability and that the threat of force must be seriously considered. The U.S. says sanctions and international diplomacy must be given more time to work."...MORE

thesandbox
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:58pm

Israel/Iran

on the MSM side of things...I guess Patraeus is going over there to "explain" things. https://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/02/israeli-prime-minister-calls-fo... "Israel's prime minister on Sunday urged the international community to get tougher against Iran, saying that without a "clear red line," Tehran will not halt its nuclear program. The tough language from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflected differences that have emerged between Israel and its allies, particularly the U.S., over how to deal with Iran. Israel has warned that the Iranians are quickly approaching weapons capability and that the threat of force must be seriously considered. The U.S. says sanctions and international diplomacy must be given more time to work."...MORE

¤
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:58pm

Fishing Bears

HD: Grizzly Bears Catching Salmon - Nature's Great Events: The Great Salmon Run - BBC One
opticsguy
Sep 2, 2012 - 5:59pm

Canada

I consult for a company in Canada. Every time I go there I have to pay $150 for a work permit, even though the company repeatedly said that there is no Canadian that can do the work. It's a shakedown, pure and simple, and 45 minutes of watching the officers drink coffee on the job when they should be working.


Sep 2, 2012 - 6:06pm

Who needs an army?

I don't know who he is, but I like him already:

Black Fly Hatch / Swarm While Fishing
Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 6:06pm

Re: Canada

Yap, sounds like the United States. Lazy-ass union sons-0-bit.....

Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 6:10pm

Re: Who needs army

Figures that one fly would have to make it's camera debut by landing on the lens.

I'm ready for my close-up, Mr. Cyvil.


Sep 2, 2012 - 6:24pm

Talked to a farmer today

I had lunch with a farmer friend this afternoon. He estimates his crop in southwest Ohio to be about 1/3 to 1/2 the normal yield. That is much less than any of the official estimates I had read or heard. I expects that next year there will be too much corn because the ranchers will not buy as much corn with fewer animals due to high prices this fall and winter. Says it will take a couple of years for the markets to get back to normal.

Hungry people this winter? Higher food prices...

SuperLeggera
Sep 2, 2012 - 6:33pm

Canada?

I did a search for Turdville on google maps and the closest I got was Turbeville in Clarendon, SC.

Is Turdville in Canada?

Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 2, 2012 - 6:38pm

try Google Solar System...

...Turdville is in orbit of Uranus.

¤
Sep 2, 2012 - 6:39pm

Turdville, Turdistan zip code 8675309

If you keep looking long enough you might find it. wink

Eric Original
Sep 2, 2012 - 6:54pm

apples

Went to the local orchard yesterday looking for apples. My guy estimates he'll harvest about 1/8th his normal crop this year, and even those will be poor quality.

Blossomed out with the early heat wave, then got froze out by frost. Then drought, then 100+ temps, then exotic bugs and stuff, and now whatever are left are dropping to the ground before they are even ripe. Even the best he has have a weird texture. We went with him and his daughters and carefully hand picked a grocery bagful, enough for our usual production of pies, but I don't expect to see many more this fall.

My own tree in the back yard has ZERO apples this year. ZERO.

Maybe next year. :(

Moosebuster George Clooney
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:11pm

This is where I

This is where I live,beautiful part of Canada. A short tourism video.

Bruce

El Gordo swampman
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:14pm

Swamp, GPS, cell phones, etc.

Another solution might be just to get rid of all those gadgets. I mean, where do most people go day after day that they need a GPS to guide them. As for a cell phone, who wouldn't like a little relief from the constant barrage of BS coming in the ear hole so close to the brain. Additionally, always drive a car that is at least 10 years old, preferably with a few whiskey dents for authenticity. Thieves don't look for treasure in junkers, and there is not much demand for older cars, at least domestically. Unless you feel the need to impress your neighbor's or your neighbor's daughter, just keep a low profile and try to stay below the radar beam. Oh, I almost forgot, do not lock your car doors either so you won't have to replace the glass if you leave a quarter in the seat or something. And then keep stacking.

¤
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:16pm

apple's

1/8? ZERO?

Wow, that's a incredibly negative number and a small example of how quickly food shortages can occur or how weather change can affect the food supply.

Next year is going to be rough for lots of folks not only here but half way around the world who depend on our food exports. Let's hope that rice production globally stays strong.

El Gordo
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:27pm

More living suggestions from EG

Never miss an opportunity to make people think your are crazy. I don't mean sitting on your rooftop with an AK, but a little more subdued such as in casual conversation, mention some of the stuff that Jim Willie talks about. That way, no matter what you say, no one will believe you, or at least they will disregard what you are saying. If you feel you are being left out of a conversation, don't hesitate to butt in and talk about your experiences with bodily functions or surgical scars, etc. Pick up cigarette butts and save them in a used coffee cup for periodic display should someone wonder what you are doing. I could go on and on, but you should be able to protect yourself from thieves, government agents, (but I repeat myself) and the like and get most people to leave you alone. Of course, with family you can just be yourself, but your public image is important.

Roark
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:30pm

@Doc Jerome

Just a quick point of data for you. Generally speaking, a one year corn failure is hard on the beef producers only for that year. A 2 year or more failure is when the fecal matter really hits the blades. Here is why. A failure of corn the first year only effects the immediate **price** of corn. It doesn't hurt the **supply** unless its a manufactured shortage. If you are feeding corn, or corn silage, you're running on last years production all the time anyway so you generally have enough to get you well past the expected harvest time. Failing that you can always buy what you need (but it sure as hell will be more expensive). That first year during the onset of the failure, it's nail-biting time but you're still operating pretty normally. When you get to fall harvest time, you realize some of the cattle you were going to hold back until the spring wont wait. You need to sell them off for two reasons: 1). you need the cash to offset any feed you had to buy at the artificially inflated rates. 2). you havent harvested enough to feed them over the winter. So the first ones to the auction lot are going to be the young steers if they are remotely close to being in a sale condition, followed by whatever mature beef you would have sold anyway. This causes a market flood of beef, and it thins the stocks somewhat. But nobody will be selling their broodstock or new calves just yet. You will have harvested enough even during a poor to get them through the worst of the winter. Recall that your breeding has already been done by harvest time, so you will be 2-for-1 during the winter, ie, the moms are preggers and the spring calves wont drop until the spring. You can put the moms on slightly shorter rations if you have to, but you should make it to spring. Barely. Spring hits and you've got calves on the ground. The steers are long gone (as well as any marginally producing females), so you've got pasture. Everyone gets turned-out early and provided you have a decent spring, they're going to survive. Now here is where the disaster comes. If you DONT get a good spring pasture, you're looking at liquidating last years calves as sub-prime commercial beef, and this years new crop as sub-prime veal. Not much of a market for this, and you'll be selling into another glut to boot, but its the only way. But you're still going to gamble and hope you can get a corn crop that will support your fems. The trainwreck has been started and it's a crapshoot. Historically, droughts last 3 years. If this happens, you're dead. At the midpoint of the summer, if you don't have massive acreage and really good luck, you'll be liquidating the fems and then you're done farming. Period. The herd, and the genetics you have worked so hard to get right, get sold for hamburger. A fifth of Jack Daniels is all you can do to treat the pain... if you can afford it. If however the drought doesn't continue for that second year, you'll have a crop. Hay, corn, whatever. You can fatten the new calves and overwinter them with their moms. You can sell the previous years calves if you need to raise some money. The price of beef goes up (nobody is shipping cattle because they all sold two years worth last year) and maybe you'll break even. So as long as you're farming, and not just raising cattle, you can weather a one-year failure. It happens all the time. But a failure in the second year, or a late spring, means you're in a world of hurt. And forget it if you have a 3 year drought. Those will take another 3 years to dig-out from under. As an aside: Farmers are resourceful folks. Just because the hay crop was a loss, or the corn crop didn't make, doesn't mean they're just going to lie down and die. Around here we've had simultaneous corn and hay failures and we adapted. How? The rice farmers. No kidding. After they harvested their crop we went in and baled the rice straw. Not textbook cattle feed, but in a pinch it works! Another thing we did was plant a quick crop of crabgrass. I kid you not. Grows like a damn weed and the cattle will eat it with gusto if you harvest it at the right time. Another farmer harvested water hyacinth and gassed it with ammonia to make a half-assed silage. The cattle didn't like it, but they ate it, and being ruminants, there was enough non-protein nitrogen in it to keep them alive until the springtime. Think about this data when you're looking at market conditions. I'd wager a bet many folks who trade in cattle futures don't fully understand this dynamic, or the collateral sources available for resourceful producers.

WhyMeLord
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:33pm

Spaceweather

MAGNIFICENT ERUPTION: A filament of magnetism curling around the sun's southeastern limb erupted on August 31st, producing a coronal mass ejection (CME), a C8-class solar flare, and one of the most beautiful movies ever recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://spaceweather.com/images2012/31aug12/ipad/magnificent.m4v

The explosion hurled a CME away from the sun traveling faster than 500 km/s (1.1 million mph). The cloud, shown here, is not heading directly toward Earth, but it will deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Sept. 3rd.

Anonymous
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:35pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Eric Original
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:46pm

more on apples

I don't mean to necessarily suggest that it will be a bust everywhere. Especially when it comes to frost, it can vary tremendously from one valley to the next. A story in the local paper a couple of weeks ago suggested yields of around 30-40% of normal in my area. My small sample says 0-13%. Could be great somewhere else, but it was a weird year that's for sure. No matter what crop in my area, all we hear is about how strange the whole season was.

Here's an article dated just yesterday.

https://www.wiscnews.com/news/local/article_6bebbc2a-f3c7-11e1-9bed-001a...

Roark
Sep 2, 2012 - 7:46pm

Peckerwood

I see lots of folks who first think of "bugging-out". But where will they go? As you state, not everyone will have 40 acres as a retreat. We are already "bugged-out". So when the SHTF our first thought will be "hunker down" or "shelter in place". THIS is why I think the smart ones will survive. They already are in position for a time of privation. They don't need to move. They already know the land and the locals. Their preps are in their panty and their infrastructure is already largely independent. Just a thought. :)

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 12/31

1/2 9:45 am ET Markit Manu PMI
1/3 10:00 am ET ISM Manu Index
1/4 8:30 am ET BLSBS
1/4 9:45 am ET Markit Serv PMI

Recent Comments