Wild Thing

Mon, Aug 20, 2012 - 10:39am

This is brutal.

I feel as if I'm at a ballgame. Fireworks are planned to start as soon as the game ends and the kids won't leave until they see them. We've been here so long that I don't even care about the game anymore, I just want it to end. But the problem is, the game isn't ending as quickly as I'd like. The home team took the lead in the eighth but now the visitors have tied it in the top of the ninth and as we head into extra innings, the kids are getting restless and the parents are getting bored and cranky. Beer sales ended an hour ago and no one is happy. When will it end? Hopefully, soon! But in a game with no time clock, it's always hard to say with certainty. Sometime soon, though, the game will end and the home team will emerge victorious. Of this, I am certain. We simply need to retake the lead and bring in our closer.

Wild Thing!(English)

For today, though, nothing has changed so here we sit, grinnin and groanin...

Just a couple of other things to start your week. First, read this article. It's written by Henry Blodget who should be selling cars in Duluth after what he did and the bullshit "analysis" he wrote back in the late 1990s. Blodget was a top "internet analyst" back in the day and was all gung ho for stocks like Worldcom and eToys. Whatever. In America, you simply move on and hope people forget. See Bill Clinton or Al Dunlap. More recently, see Dick Fuld, John Thain, Jimmy Cayne or Jon Corzine. That said, in this article Blodget writes about the common underwriting practice of "greenshoe" whereby the IPO underwriter has the luxury of printing stock to either participate directly if a deal is "hot" or put on a risk-limited short if the deal sucks. As you know, Facebook sucked and the underwriters utilized their greenshoe to profit handsomely regardless.


And, in closing, another movie clip. I stumbled across this one over the weekend and thought I'd include it this morning. From 16 years ago but certainly spot on still today.

Will Hunting had it right 14 years ago

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 21, 2012 - 1:57am

I'm NOT going to put anyone on my ignore list,

Truth, was what America was founded on, and indeed it was a struggle.

But really what won the war was attitude. Do YOU WANT TO BE LEFT ALONE, from TYRANNY?

Look at how many billions have been spent to concuer other countries.

To make them like .... US?

They only love their homeland and way of life.

Americans are so deluded they are whipsawed every 4 years to 'pray' for a better leader.

If I don't get a reply from my recent antagonist, I will be amazed.

But in the end it means nothing. America is nothing if personal rights and Individual Rights are forgone.

Everything else is rhetoric, and a stealth effort to steal it has been obvious for decades for anyone that cared to look.


Aug 21, 2012 - 2:01am


Is the bottem line to vote for Romney?

Just tell me what you want everybody to do.


The Watchman
Aug 21, 2012 - 2:08am

Things ARE Getting Worse by the Day


Police allowed to track cell phones in US without court warrants

: 18 August, 2012, 00:06

Police allowed to track cell phones in US without court warrants

TAGS:Crime, SciTech, Drugs, Information Technology, USA, Police, Court

The US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Americans have no reasonable expectation of privacy when carrying cell phones, allowing police to track GPS signals without a warrant or probable cause.

The decision came the court ruled in United States v. Skinner that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) abided by the Constitution by using a drug runner’s cellphone data to track his location and determine his identity.

Melvin Skinner, also known by his false name as “Big Foot,” was a drug mule with more than 1,100 pounds of marijuana in his Texas motorhome.

The throwaway mobile phone he was using was registered under a false name, so agents did not know the identity of the drug trafficker.

By using GPS data from his disposable phone, police learned that “Big Foot” was planning to deliver a large shipment of marijuana from Arizona to Tennessee in his mobile home.

In 2006, agents obtained a court order – but not a warrant – to track the disposable phone’s location using its GPS.

After tracing the phone’s exact location, police dogs discovered the mobile home and indicated a presence of drugs. “Big Foot” was arrested and charged for drug trafficking and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

But on appeal, the defendant argued that his cell phone data could not be used because the DEA failed to obtain a warrant for it, thereby violating the Fourth Amendment.

The Fourth Amendment protects against “unreasonable searches and seizures” without the issuance of a warrant obtained due to probable cause.

The Court considers cell phone use to be a public – not private – action, thereby being ineligible for the protections of the Fourth Amendment. A court brief of the case states that “a suspect’s presence in a publicly observable place is not information subject to Fourth Amendment protection.”

Additionally, Judge John M. Rogers, writing for the majority, said Skinner “did not have a reasonable expectation of privacy in the data given off by his voluntarily procured pay-as-you-go cell phone. If a tool used to transport contraband gives off a signal that can be tracked for location, certainly the police can track the signal.”

While any US cell phone can now be tracked by police without probable cause or a warrant, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that police must obtain a warrant before secretly attacking a GPS tracking device to a suspect’s car.

That ruling is currently being contested, leaving the possibility for police to secretly track vehicles without permission. Without the requirement of a warrant to access cell phone data, US authorities are gaining increasing power over what some would consider “private” rights of individuals – but what the Courts call public.

Aug 21, 2012 - 2:12am

GSR made quite definite turn

GSR made quite definite turn downwards, first to the level below 57 in 2 months. According to the interpretation of events I like to see and have so far forecasted for future, this should mean turnaround, in worst case in a form of head and another shoulder , perhaps shortly above 57- that would correspond to possible next minimum in silver prices in around 2-3 weeks but most likely not below 27. Something is propping silver up relative to gold even if there is absolutely no volume in paper markets.

It does not look from the shape of longer term weekly curve that this is just a sag before GSR shoots up. The curve is missing some characteristics of exponential recovery and is below it already.

Feeling after this move is that the real, bad bottoms are behind us. By bad I mean breaking 26 support. However, prices will continue to be volatile.


On a log chart which I can not get here with channel lines from Netdania, GSR recovery since April 2011 has been sitting below lower support of exponential recovery channel since March 2012-exponential recovery is the natural way of most recoveries after sharp crashes like experienced by GSR from 70-32 during September 2010- April 2011 and now is breaking through it even more convincingly. So the breakout from exponential recovery has been on for about 5 months now, and is continuing in that direction- guess it supports the idea that GSR will not return to that channel anytime soon, that trend has been broken.

The Watchman
Aug 21, 2012 - 2:13am

Things ARE Getting Worse by the Day

Several federal agencies have purchased an advanced software application that allows administrators to see every single action, item, mouse click and more performed on their employees’ computers. Some say it’s being implemented to end whistleblowing.

In the midst of a witch-hunt that has targeted anyone accused of leaking documents, the US federal government has been linked to a massive acquisition of spyware that allows the higher ups to get ahold of essentially any communiqué and comment made by its employees on any electronic device. Some agents with the Food and Drug Administration insist that their personal conversations were unlawfully monitored by their higher-ups using the program, citing their superiors’ fears that whistleblowers will continue to come to lawmakers to voice concern over dangerous practices within the FDA.

“We are looking for what we call indicators of compromise,” Joy Miller, deputy assistant secretary for security at the Department of Health and Human Services, the FDA’s parent agency, says to the Washington Post. “We’re monitoring a system, not everybody in that environment.”

Journalists with the Post penned an article this week that examines the use of Spector 360, monitoring software made by the SpectorSoft group, within the FDA and other agencies.

According to the FDA, staffers had their computer activity monitored and logged over concern that employees were disclosing trade secrets. Those agents, however, argue that they were spied on to ensure that they were not reporting internal corruption to Congress. And while the Post’s expose examines the government’s attempts to chill any employee’s attempt at blowing the whistle on wrongdoing, it only begins to open up what great lengths the feds are willing to go to.

In January, six FDA scientists filed a lawsuit against the agency in US District Court over claims that they were unlawfully spied on after approaching Congress with their concerns that their office was allowing the approval of medical devices that posed a risk to the public. When the Post reported on those claims at the time, they unearthed emails dating back to early 2009 that showed that the FDA had intercepted emails between agency whistleblowers and congressional staffers.

“Who would have thought that they would have the nerve to be monitoring my communications to Congress?” Robert C. Smith, one of the plaintiffs, told the Post at the time.

Seven months later, not only are federal employees being still subjected to constant monitoring, but some have suggested that the surveillance surpasses what the government is allowed to do by the books. One expert tells the paper that any device used to access encrypted government data is then considered fair-game for any surveillance software.

“The general policy right now is if a personal device accesses any agency information, it adopts the profile of a government-issued device,” Tom Clare, senior director of product marketing for Websense, tells the Post. “They’re going to monitor everything.”

And it isn’t just everything, but everywhere, too, apparently. In an investigation carried out earlier this month by the National law Journal, the paper writes, “Government-contract records show that the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (V.A.) purchased spy software from the same company that supplied the FDA’s computer monitoring program, according to the database USAspending.gov.”

The Drug Enforcement Administration has also been tied to the software, an accusation confirmed by spokeswoman Dawn Dearden to the National Law Journal. On her part, though, Dearden pleads that the DEA “is aware of protections afforded to whistleblowers and does not monitor or check for that kind of activity.”

Despite this claim, some say that this monitoring could chill even thoughts of blowing the whistle.

The actions of agency management have negatively impacted employee morale and resulted in significant concerns about agency management practices,” Colleen Kelley, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, tells the Journal. “For example, in light of what has happened at FDA, some employees voiced to [the union] their reluctance to report wrongdoing, for fear of retaliation.”

Transportation Security Administration Spokesman David Castelveter adds to the Post that the use of such software within that agency isn’t part of a war on whistleblowing, but instead is “about protecting the sensitive nature of the transportation security mission.” When certain information is kept under wraps to avoid being brought to the public, though — as with the lawsuit against the FDA — sensitive information is sometimes needed to be introduced outside of the agency for the sake of safety.

The Post reports that Spector 360 has been sold to at least one dozen federal agencies. In a request for solicitations posted by the Department of Homeland Security’s TSA in July, the government goes about explaining exactly what they look for in such software.

“The scope of this procurement is an enterprise insider threat software package,” the solicitation reads. “In order to detect an insider threat, technology is required to monitor and obtain visibility into users' actions. TSA Focused Operations requires a tool that can monitor user activities at the user host level.”

Included in the government’s requirements for responses is the ability for the software to look at and log keystrokes, chats, email correspondence, website activity and file transferring, as well as the capacity to capture a screenshot of any activity occurring on a computer monitor at any time. It also mandates that the end user “must not have the ability to detect this technology,” nor the ability to terminating the monitoring on their own.

According to a press release published in June, SpectorSoft has provided services to more than 160,000 businesses, government organizations, schools and law enforcement agencies. In a case study included on the SpectorSoft.com website, KBSolutions, Inc. President Jim Tanner claims, “To date, no offender has successfully attacked Spector Pro or defeated it.”

Karankawa The Watchman
Aug 21, 2012 - 2:16am

great post.

I don't have a smart phone. Should everyone else get rid of theirs?



PS, is it the Smart Phones that are dangerous or the spread of information?

Aug 21, 2012 - 2:18am

cheers ivars

Always a good read

Mr. Fix
Aug 21, 2012 - 2:26am

You are cordially invited to a forum on Atlas Shrugged.

In the interest of keeping Main Street for Main Street,

I posted a long first person account concerning my experience with government,

and religion as it pertains to

collectivism versus individuality, and morality.

It's on the forum recently started entitled ''BBC article on Ayn Rand"

The premise is, that our society and in particular our government cannot survive as it is currently being run.

You may find the questions that are raised

to be interesting.

Here's the link:


Yes, I am soliciting some feedback.

Mr. Fix

The Green Manalishi
Aug 21, 2012 - 2:38am

Heads up!

Ned Naylor-Leyland on today's Keiser report - No link yet.

Aug 21, 2012 - 2:43am

Silver is through all the lines

The downward sloping line of high daily closes / high 10 day period closes off the Bullionvault charts: it now almost makes no difference how you jiggle the line, it is down well below $28 and falling and we have closed a dollar or 3% above it on a daily basis. That does not mean the price has to rise, but it means that downward sloping line is now losing all meaning. If instead of a line it is forming part of the left hand side of a parabolic bottom (which is possible), the current point could be anywhere. Either way I am not looking at the downward sloping resistance line any more.

You can just about make a much shallower line off the April and August 2011 tops on the 5 year chart, but from experience those lines are misleading; they simply represent the anatomy of the top and do not bear extrapolation into the next move.

The Green Manalishi
Aug 21, 2012 - 2:47am

Gold Money Interview from the Debt Bomb guy - Dominic Frisby.

Simon Caufield sees little value in US equities

Posted by commoditywatch on August 20th, 2012

Dominic Frisby talks to investor Simon Caufield about his bearish outlook for US equities.

Simon Caufield is a mathematician. After 10 years as an engineer, he took an MBA and then became a consultant to the financial industry. In 2001 he started his own software company which he sold in 2007. He then 'sacked' his fund managers and took control of his own investing using a value approach. After a great deal of success between 2008 and 2010, he began writing the True Value newsletter for Moneyweek Magazine.


Aug 21, 2012 - 3:00am

Ivars analysis

Hi Ivars, thank you for your analysis but it's a bit confusing, could you clarify please?

ratioarbitrage ivars
Aug 21, 2012 - 3:02am

@ivars: counterfactual of GSR trend resumption

In situations like this I consider the following: for the trendlines (the six month one and the 18 month one) to resume, traders must be able to believe in the ratio recovering its old leading edge, since if they fail to do so then the upward channel in the ratio has failed and - failing a nice flat ceiling to make it a bullish wedge - it has morphed into a bearish rising wedge or some such.

The leading edge of the six month uptrend channel is around 62; this is still plausible in my view on a panic spike down in price.

The leading edge of the 18 month uptrend channel is now around 75. This will beggar belief for most; after all the last time the ratio was down there the price of silver doubled in a year and went 5x in 3 years. Implication: that level was only sustained by downward momentum.

Which leaves the question: is the six month uptrend channel sustained by the 18 month uptrend channel? In my opinion it is; it is tracking the trailing edge of that channel, in the classic configuration that I have always seen as the "trend is doomed" configuration. If most/all traders agree, we have:

1) Channel broken down in both time frames

2) Recovery of leading edge no longer imaginable

That concludes it for me: no life insurance for that channel.

Aug 21, 2012 - 3:45am

wild thing

do not think i saw this one yet tonelocstyle

Video unavailable

heres a rEEl wild thing.

thinking a year ago when we were coming back into the 40/oz teRRitory that today i could find 9999 RCM 100oz bars sub 3G. crazy. anyhow. that wiLL stiLL be a swEEt deal in the end, you ask me.

continue to plug away. everyday you get is sweLL. peace

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:12am

This spike concerns me

It seems based partly on technical analysis and falling wedges and such like, but mostly on an attempt to front run a QE announcement at Jackson Hole. If such an announcement fails to materialize, then it's off the table till December, and the metals will be whacked.

So it may be a case of buy the rumour, sell the news.

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:55am

@Maradona GSR analysis

Confusing could be the exponential recovery part which it has broken.

Explanation: its not unusual ( in fact, pretty common) to observe a recovery from a sharp down spike in a form of a delta signal passed through a linear RC circuit. It seems that in these cases, market freezes- in a sense ALL traders play in unison but with different time delay to bring price/ parameter back to the level from which it broke. These differences in time delays cover a zone which creates a lower and higher bounds for recovery if it is of this shape and also allows to project these shapes further to see the channel.

This is how typical recovery signal looks (y axis then represents a sharp move down in Vc from 100% to 0%) :

A channel would contain another such curve below this one with different tau. The same bounding line is visible in GSR recovery from its lows in April 2011.

The shape of this recovery is function is described by f(t) = (1- 1/exp(t/tau) ) where exp(t/tau) is exponential function of time since minimum depending on system characteristic delay time tau. If GSR would continue to follow this recovery (all traders still act the same way, no de cooperation) , it would still have room to grow quite a lot.

The total impulse down was 68-32= 36 GSR units. The impulse up so far has been 56-32= 24 GSR units. So, GSR system has recovered 24/36= 66% level on the curve above.

However, if we try to put these recovery functions (1-1/e(t/tau) ) ) with different tau on the GSR chart both on the top and bottom based on earlier tops/bottoms along truly synchronous recovery , we see that by today (I can not draw it here) , upper part should have been already at about 65, while lower bound would be approximately where we are today. So we have not clearly broken it, my mistake, but we are on the verge of getting out of such recovery channel on the downside. That means complete change in regime traders act - they forget the spike down that occurred , the memory ceases to influence todays decisions, they act as if it has not happened (same would happen if GSR would break the bounds of sync recovery function through top curve).

Thank You for question, I guess I was wrong to use log chart and lines as this function is not exp(t) and ln (1-1/e(t/tau)) is NOT a straight line excpet for very small t. Had to clarify for myself.

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:56am

A look back to Feb. 2012

$30.58 is the 200-day moving average for silver.

$30.92 is the 200-week moving average for silver.

I wouldn't be surprised to see silver hit either one of those numbers this week.

The last time silver went thru the 200-week moving average silver was at around $35.40

The people who make a living by robbing us let it run to $37.58 then a quick scalping to close under the 200 week moving average.

Take a look at the chart.


Just keep it in mind if silver starts moving higher without a lot of resistance.

Raoul Dusentier The Green Manalishi
Aug 21, 2012 - 6:05am

Quote:  Ned Naylor-Leyland


Ned Naylor-Leyland on today's Keiser report - No link yet.



Aug 21, 2012 - 6:12am


yUP as above

silver foil hat
Aug 21, 2012 - 6:18am

Global warming..... again?

you'd think we could put it to rest...

Arctic Ocean Getting
Warm; Seals Vanish
And Icebergs Melt*

(By the Associated Press)

The Arctic ocean is warming
up, icebergs are growing scarcer
and in some places the seals are
finding the waters too hot, ac-
cording to a report to the Com-
merce Department yesterday
from Consul Ifft, at Bergen ,
Norway .

Reports from fishermen, seal
hunters and explorers, he
declared, all point to a radical
change in climatic conditions
and hitherto unheard-of tem-
peratures in the Arctic zone.
Exploration expeditions report
that scarcely any ice has been
met with as far north as 81
degrees 29 minutes. Soundings
to a depth of 3.100 meters
showed the gulf stream still very

Great masses of ice have
been replaced by moraines of
earth and stones, the report
continued, while at many points
well known glaciers have entirely
disappeared. Very few seals and
no white fish are being found in
the eastern Arctic, while vast
shoals of herring and smelts,
which have never before
ventured so far north, are being
encountered in the old seal
fishing grounds.

Sorry. That was a repost of a Washington Post article from 1922, which was 50 years before the "Global cooling" and "ice age" scare of the 1970's.

oh yeah, silver's now back over 29. yippee.

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:30am

In June 2010, when EUR was

In June 2010, when EUR was 1,24 USD, silver was about 20 USD. Last months its ranging between 26-29 USD, a 30-45% increase against USD value measured in other currency. But EUR will not hold, anyway this direction is encouraging as it moves the floor beneath silver up.

Hi-Ho Silver
Aug 21, 2012 - 6:32am

Jim Willie

Holy Smokes...seems Jim Willie's conspiracy stuff is true if you believe this:


BillAuAg Roark
Aug 21, 2012 - 7:03am

Greenhouse Gasses

Just to clear up all the crap about CO2 as the

climate driver, lets take a look at facts:

I think you can appreciate the John Adams quote "Facts are hard things"

Aug 21, 2012 - 7:14am

Quick Spike Sililver

What caused that spike to 29.13 and back down again.

Aug 21, 2012 - 7:16am


So how come this board keeps backsliding into discussions of conspiracies? Well I have a theory.

If one is to be a stacker, you have to believe that the value of metals is going up and/or the monetary system will crash. But to hold the belief that metals are going up, or are at least a way to store and maintain everything you have worked for, you have to believe that the current fiat system worse than flawed or vulnerable, but manipulated!

Our gut feeling tells us that the money system is manipulated. All the puzzle pieces we find suggest that it is. We have been hearing a consistent story for decades about how and why. That story has what the literary critics call "verisimilitude," --how similar to truth (verum) does it sound. In short, how well does a theory fit the "facts" that a person already knows, and how reasonable does the story sound?

So for us to stand steadfast with our metal holdings, we seek theories that explain the facts we have.

Several facts (or fundamentals) told a reasonable story prior to May 2011 were 1) demand for silver as an industrial metal was outpacing supply, 2) JPM had an underwater short position to which they would be foolish to add, 3) QE was debasing fiat. Hence, my conclusion was to buy at $45.

After the smashdowns, my story lost its verisimilitude. It couldn't have happened. I needed a new story and the "Criminal EE controlling the world" theory seemed to be the best fit. My three facts could not explain it. And the timing of hte bin Laden killing was too coincidental. Laws were broken at the highest levels to make the smashdown happen. I adopted a new theory. I began to store essential items in addition to metals. As stories of WTC7, Bilderbergers, Chem trails, global warming, psychopath CEOs, and the other usual suspects all began to fit a pattern of EE control, suddenly new bits of first hand evidence like my brother in law's police riot training, a psychopath running my university, revelations of market manipulation by the FED--these all confirmed some version of the larger conspiracy. And it's a conspiracy I need in order to make sense of the world and keep me holding metals and adding to my essentials.

I argue therefore that our board needs to debate theories, civilly. And that the debates should begin on Main Street and move to forums before they get annoying. If I don't believe your theory, it is not because I am an asshole. I am either ignorant (no shame in that), the evidence is not credible, or there is equal credible evidence on the other side of the scale.

So keep posting the puzzle pieces. I, for one, read them and often check out the links.

opticsguy silver foil hat
Aug 21, 2012 - 7:16am

1922 report

when I read "whitefish", "herring and smelts", I knew something was wrong. Those species are almost extinct.

opticsguy Doctor J
Aug 21, 2012 - 7:18am

Dr. Jerome

I get my daily fix of onspiracy theories and Drudge x-posts fromTTOL, or "The Tree of Liberty". It's a fast loading page and they don't allow imbedding of videos, so it won't use up your bandwith, either.

uki Lumpy
Aug 21, 2012 - 7:33am

@Lumpy: $30.92 is the 50-week


$30.92 is the 50-week moving average for silver.

200-week ma is at $23.96.

uki Lumpy
Aug 21, 2012 - 7:35am

@Lumpy:$30.92 is the 50-week

duplicate post -remove

Aug 21, 2012 - 7:36am


Opticsguy: thanks!

I find I have to moderate my intake otherwise I get depressed.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS