Gut Bomb

Thu, Aug 16, 2012 - 12:05pm

Having only just now recovered from an early morning trip to The Waffle House, I'm ready to tackle the day.

First up, it seems like it has been so long since I've:

  1. Made a short-term prediction
  2. Been right

That I feel compelled to tout this one:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 15, 2012 - 7:50pm.
Kinda gotten out of the habit of making short term predictions but here goes.
I think the metals look to move higher overnight/tomorrow. Crude is currently basing above the old double top at 94.25 and the grains are stronger, too. Eventually this will translate onto the short term metals charts that look increasingly positive. A move through the 100-day MA in gold (near 1612) would send price back toward 1620 and beyond.

Let's just see now if gold can get above 1620-25 and if silver can finally get through 28.20. The algos will likely game it back down lower later today but we'll see. I spoke with Winston again this morning and he assured me that demand for physical metal remains "robust" in London and that "every dip below 1600" is being met with increased orders in size. As this physical market continues to create a rising floor in the paper market (see the higher lows on the charts below), eventually this buying pressure will burst the caps at the top of the now 100-day price ranges. WHEN that happens, momentum-chasing algos will flip long and we will accelerate to the upside. This is inevitable and only a matter of time.

Helping things along is crude. Look closely at the chart below and you'll see that we are simply continuing a pattern of breakouts and consolidations that stretches back to late June. As it appears that we have begun another breakout period, the next logical price target appears to be $98-99 before another period of consolidation. IF trend continues, there's no reason not to expect $98 crude at a minimum by late next week.

Just a couple of news items to review. First here's a story on David Walker and the fine work he is doing. I've met David before and he is a very nice gentleman. A true non-partisan, he couldn't care less about who wins the upcoming election, he just wants to see something done regarding the debt and deficits.

And then these two ZH stories regarding gold demand. These stories add credence to what I mentioned above about global, physical demand and the whole "China making a new currency" idea that we discussed yesterday.

And this is a really good, Chris Martenson article that everyone should take the time to read:

Lastly, I feel I must ask you again to keep the comments section of this post as close to on-topic as possible. As we near election season, I know that emotions are high (and getting higher) and it's easy to steer off onto a tangent. Therefore, please try to keep this discussion here focused on the metals and the economy. Discussions about prepping, politics, guns, ammo and insurrection must be taken to the forums. Always keep in mind that this is a public site. While it might be fun for you to type up and post your wildest thoughts regarding the future, you are not the one at risk of seeing black sedans pull up in front of your house. I am. So, again, please try to keep this main page focused on metals and take all other, coincident discussions to the forums. Muchas Grassyass.

It's already noon EDT so I'm going to go ahead and send this now. I hope everyone has a great day. Clearly, this week was not the "explosive, historic" one but next week holds promise. Be right, sit tight and keep stacking.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2012 - 10:43am

Lindsy Williams

Lindsey Williams on Radio Liberty in August 2012 talking with Dr. Stan Monteith regarding the latest information from a globalist insider, they have stopped drilling at the liberty rig in Alaska until the price of oil is $150 a barrel, gold and silver are going up to $3,000 and $75 per ounce respectively, every country in the middle east will be given to the MI5 controlled Muslim Brotherhood and the last country that will be taken over will be Saudi Arabia, the elite are six months behind in their take over of middle eastern countries because Russia stepped in to assist Syria, and the elite want to drown every country in debt before crashing the dollar after the elections and then issuing a new currency backed by gold.

He's been more right than wrong!

Aug 17, 2012 - 10:45am

Much nicer

I agree DT and to think all it took was a slow knife fight the last few weeks. Ouch!

I think this weekend on here, demeanor wise, is an important one for the site and I think all of us in here (and the lurkers) want and need a relaxing one.

TF certainly does, so lets give him one.

So to that end, I'm committed to being just that....relaxed and positive and trying to inform and keep things moving along. Some hard news would help all of us out and get us to focus on something instead of this 'nothing' market and especially what appears to be a lack of any plan on TPTB's part at this time to seriously address it. I think they're worried also and prepping.

My personal opinion right now, is that their attention is distracted from what is lining up in MENA and that they know is about to take place. Sadly, war has always played a economic part in the reason why they might be waged. The resulting destruction always prompts growth through rebuilding. It would give the CB's and TPTB the opening to do massive QE without any publicity or market fanfare.

Regarding wartime QE. They didn't have a name for it 'back then' but the amount of money that was added to the money supply during WWII must have been immense and without scale on a inflation adjusted basis. Think about it.

The Govt. put lots of capital to work suddenly and it never had a name attached to it except for "the war effort". I'm not sure how the market reacted to it back then because they were probably worried and more concerned about Pearl harbor and everything else that was going on . But that unnamed QE back then by all the worlds Govt.'s (especially the U.S.) was a giant stimulus and we all know what gold was doing back then at that time....nothing. This time will be different.

War brings economic activity before, during and after the conflict. Growth through destruction is an old concept.

Twisted logic maybe, but that seems to hold true.


Aug 17, 2012 - 10:47am

Who knew Chris Matthews had a "day job" at....

...93.3 KOB.FM?

'I just flirted with the POTUS'

There's nothing wrong with doing softball interviews during a campaign cycle. Lots of people vote based on likeability, and to that end one's take on the mole in Albuquerque is a matter of great regional importance. Music matters even more -- Nick Hornby has argued that you can tell a lot more about a person by what they like than by what they're like.

But, more than eight weeks since his last press conference, every question the president fields from an outlet like 93.3 KOB.FM becomes another turn of the thumb in the eye of his White House press corps.

"I just flirted with the President of the United States of America," the co-host of the show says after President Obama hangs up. White House correspondents, meanwhile, are begging for a suggestive glance from across the room.

For all the masochists here:

Aug 17, 2012 - 10:50am


GM was handed lock stock and barrel over to the Chinese Communist's by marxist Obama crime syndicate, GM is not an American company anymore, it is a front for Chinese communist expansion of its state controlled plans to overrun the yankee doodlers of America. I'm now buying Fords.

Aug 17, 2012 - 10:50am


We need the market to awaken...

Godsmack- Awake
Aug 17, 2012 - 10:54am

tyberious, I am not trying to

tyberious, I am not trying to flame you, so please dont take what I am about to say as an attack. Its just that I dont trust this guy Lindsy Williams. I am sorry but to me he always sounds like a trend chaser and a salesman. He takes all the news, the latest conspiracy theories, the latest speculation, and then he sprinkles his insider elite story on it and Walla! You have the latest Lindsey Williams predictions. He is often right because by the time he predicts it we are already talking about the possibility of it happening. Read our conversations on here and you could make your own predictions and be mostly right. They are educated guesses based on lots of good intel and speculation. That is just my two cents, and I may be wrong in this statement as I havent listened to him much lately, but if you look at anything he predicts you can find someone out there in the blogesphere that has made that claim long before Lindsey did.

Aug 17, 2012 - 11:14am


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