Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 7, 2011 - 3:54pm

WOW ReachWest ain't kidding!

So, whatever you do, DON'T buy your Ag here:

By comparison, just pulled up an ASE on Bullion Direct. That's more like it!

American Eagle Silver Coin (1.000 oz.)

American Eagle Silver Coin (1.000 oz.)
$43.45 each.
Symbol: SIAE001
Weight: 1.000 oz. actual; 0.069 lbs. shipping
Condition: Uncirculated
Denomination: $1 face value
Content: 99.9% pure silver
Diameter: 40.600 mm.
Thickness: 2.980 mm.
Aug 7, 2011 - 3:56pm

Hypothetically, if short

Hypothetically, if short selling was banned, would that include ETF's like DOG and TZA?

Aug 7, 2011 - 3:56pm

Buying silver before 6pm

My wife and I just placed an order at Provident. No problems. Just over spot price for Ben Franklins. We have always had a good experience shopping there.

Went all in. No fiat in savings now. If the price goes down, that's OK cause we are in for the long haul.

My charts show the AG price sitting just above the lower trendline--tested it on friday and bounced up. Its a line of support is has not really broken through since the rise began last September. I do not believe that any dip will last long. And we did not want to miss out if the Asians push silver up $2 tonight.

kenklave Doctor J
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:00pm

Me too doc. There may be

Me too doc. There may be risk here but for some reason it doesn't feel like gambling...

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:01pm

posx down .92 yen right away...

...below 78 presently

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:03pm

just verified that

Dollar Tumbling To Record Low Against Swiss Franc, New Lows Against Yen

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/07/2011 - 15:24 Capital Markets Swiss Franc Yen

For an early look at the risk aversion gripping the market look no further than the USDCHF and the USDJPY, the first of which just took out 0.75, and the second now almost at BOJ intervention levels. Ironically, since the math Ph.D.s have still not recalibrated their models, it is very likely that the collapse in the dollar will lead to an explosion in ES courtesy of the inverse correlation, which will once and for all confirm that global capital markets and now nothing but a robotic circus.

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:09pm

Me three Doc

Ditto, just went with 10oz ntr bars........GLTA

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:09pm

currency pairs

Key Currencies

Symbol Bid Ask High Low Time(GMT)
USDJPY/quotes/zigman/4868099/sampled 77.9500 78.0400 78.3500 77.5000 20:07:29
USDCHF/quotes/zigman/4868123/sampled 0.7545 0.7550 0.7560 0.7480 20:07:22
GBPUSD/quotes/zigman/4867886/sampled 1.6449 1.6468 1.6464 1.6391 20:07:11
EURUSD/quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled 1.4400 1.4406 1.4412 1.4335 20:07:23
AUDUSD/quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled 1.0464 1.0470 1.0464 1.0382 18:14:26
USDCAD/quotes/zigman/4867882/sampled 0.9779 0.9782 0.9843 0.9782 18:14:26
EURCHF/quotes/zigman/4868091/sampled 1.0875 1.0880 1.0870 1.0756 20:07:26
EURJPY/quotes/zigman/4868097/sampled 111.9600 112.3000 112.3000 111.6000 20:07:29
NZDJPY/quotes/zigman/5237591/sampled 65.7415 65.8658 66.0569 64.4955 20:07:29
AUDCHF/quotes/zigman/4867892/sampled 0.7890 0.7904 0.7975 0.7848 20:06:14
AUDNZD/quotes/zigman/4867904/sampled 1.2400 1.2414 1.2468 1.2412 20:05:29
CADJPY/quotes/zigman/5237593/sampled 79.6913 79.8069 79.7833 78.7362 20:07:29
EUR= European Euro CHF= Swiss Franc NZD= New Zealand Dollar
USD= United States Dollar JPY= Japanese Yen GBP= United Kingdom Pound
AUD= Australian Dollar

Related Currency Instruments

Symbol Name Price Change % Change
DXY/quotes/zigman/1652083 US Dollar Index Future 74.52 -0.76 -1.01%
GLD/quotes/nls/gld SPD Gold Trust ETF 161.75 +1.11 +0.69%
UUP/quotes/zigman/1502728 US Dollar Bullish Fund 21.22 -0.18 -0.84%
JYF/quotes/nls/jyf Japanese Yen Fund 34.47 +1.42 +4.30%
IEV/quotes/nls/iev S&P Europe 350 Index ETF 36.56 +0.86 +2.41%
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:10pm

Scottsdale Silver still selling! Good prices too

Scottsdale Silver still selling! Good prices too!

Keep Stacking!!

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:11pm

Broken but grateful

My heart breaks to see the state of the economy not just in the US but worldwide. I wonder what my 15 yr. old son will have when he is an adult. He's in route to Salt Lake for 2 weeks to spend with his best friend and his family. I gave him some cash, a debit card and some silver dollars. He said "there's NO WAY I'm spending my silver dollars... are you crazy?" I told him to keep them a secret and use if an emergency came up. He grabbed an extra silver dollar and said "I'm giving one to my best friend to teach him about PM's, at least he'll have one too if he ever needs it." I have such a great son, he's always willing to share.

Now I'm off to grind some of that Hard White Wheat I have and make some homemade bread. Yummmmm..... :)

Food Storage + PM's = a little more peace of mind.

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:12pm

And so it begins....

And so it begins....

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:18pm

ReachWest/ewc58 - What am I

ReachWest/ewc58 - What am I missing? I see selling ASEs for $65 (still expensive, but not as hyped as in your comments).

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:18pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:20pm

What if...

I've been reading this blog for a few months now (since the previous one) and I'm puzzled about the movement tonight.

I had orders at $1637 on Friday, waiting for a deeper raid, however the support was at $1642.

With the US markets going down like they did last week, is it possible that the downgrade was in fact a strategy to make the US Bonds more attractive because now they will have to pay a higher premium to the investors?

And if that's the case, won't the dollar go up and the gold down?

Or it doesn't really matter?

The other thing is the crisis in Europe. If people leave the Euro, will they go to Swiss Francs, Pounds or back to the Dollar?

I'm keeping my original $1637 order, but I'm curious if someone is buying at $1660 tonight.


Aug 7, 2011 - 4:25pm

Bern, the page has been changed

since I was there 10 minutes ago. 011 ASE BU's now show at 44.78. A big improvement on the $108.66 per that I saw... The 100oz Englehard was going for 10+ Large!

But Provident and BD are both lower cost options (not factoring shipping variances, if any).

Dr G TheBaker
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:27pm


I don't trade anymore (I'm reformed), I only stack physical.

With that said, I'm buying at 1660. I'm buying 1680. I'm buying at 1700. I'm buying whenever I can buy. I don't think I'm the only one.

My philosophy is simple. What else am I going to do with my money? I have no other place to put it.

Eric Original
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:27pm


Glad to see you "got the big gold phyzz, baby :)"

ReachWest bern
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:28pm Pricing back down now

OK - the pricing is back to where it should be - maybe an error in their database - I posted a couple of screenshots of the inflated prices in the Forum - thought this might be a glitch - guess it was. Now I can buy some more Maples.

Eric Original
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:28pm

Skydiving Update

Happy to report a successful jump today! Wife, Son, and Mother-in-law all safely back on terra firma!

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:29pm
Dr Durden
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:31pm

Betting the ES gaps up to at

Betting the ES gaps up to at least 1250 here shortly. Which means the POSX tanks.

Gold back to $1680.

Silver hammered, who knows how low.

Then whiplash.

Then whiplash again.

Then, QE∞

Then all is good and fair in the world once again.

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:31pm

zh better get their game together

it's been screwy for the past few days since their server blew up. they need to step up here tonight

TheBaker Dr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:34pm

Dr G

I've been looking for bullion in London, but prices that I find here feel much higher than the price you guys have been paying there.

So I'm new to trading, still a small fish playing with mini contracts... I was lucky to buy at $1611 last Sunday, but didn't hold for too much (silly panic).. if I had I would have made a good change :)

So technically I'd say the $1640 level is still a good support, but with these news, who knows...

Double Bogey
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:40pm

Saturday's coin shop experience

I took a couple of 100 oz Englehard bars to the coin store, and exchanged them for a hundred Englehard rounds and 100 Buffalo rounds. The switch cost me $500, but feel a whole lot better than keeping 100 oz bars. When SHTF, trying to sell a big bar when silver is $100+ will be a little tougher, plus avoiding potential reporting issues. I will stick to stacking 1-10oz from now on.

While I was there, I bought my very first gold pieces; A couple of $5 half eagles, 1912, 1914-s for $450 each, and a couple of slabbed 1/10 oz eagles, for $175 each. Eric O, your insights finally persuaded me. Mixed emotions; yes the gold $5 indians are special to look at and marvel at, but part of me wishes I'd just bought another 30 oz. of silver. I've heard several of you comment on the heft of a Mexican $50 peso coin, and I love the looks of the St. Gauldens $20 coin, so they are on my wish list.

The dealer was holding to Friday's prices, but he thought there would be a substantial increase Sunday night. We'll see. We were both surprised there were no other people in the store after the previous evenings downgrade. Wake up America!

And, finally saw the latest Pirates of the Caribbean movie last night. I wasn't that surprised to see Atlee in a starring role as Jack Sparrows father, but could hear his cool voice as if it was prepared for the action tonight and tomorrow. He reminds Jack "Before you set sail, know the details." Also, this memorable exchange :

Captain Teague Sparrow: I heard you're putting together a crew.
Jack Sparrow: If enough people are saying it, it must be true!
Captain Teague: I heard where you're headed. The fountain of youth.
Jack Sparrow: Have you been there?
Captain Teague: Does this face look like it's been to the fountain of youth?
Jack Sparrow: Depends on the light.

Prize Fighter
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:41pm

The ZH red/green arrows are

The ZH red/green arrows are gone from the comments section. Maybe they were clogging up the system?

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:42pm

Asian Exchange opening times (edt)

Japan at 8

Shanghai 9

Heng Seng 10

Double Bogey
Aug 7, 2011 - 4:47pm


I appreciate all the comments thoughts and advice on the site. It really helps to both question and strengthen some thoughts and actions

Aug 7, 2011 - 4:56pm

EE likes to engineer counter-intuitive moves

Just when you thought Dollar or market should be donw they tended to come out with an artificial boost. They did it a lot in the past. We will see how much power they still have on monday.

Aug 7, 2011 - 5:03pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 5:08pm


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