Your Weekly Podcast

408
Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 1:27pm

A little something different this week. As a change of pace, I'm the one getting interviewed. I spoke yesterday with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney and I think you'll enjoy listening in.

The link to the interview is right here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/turd-ferguson-and-alasdair-macleod-on-the-end-of-the-great-keynesian-experiment.html

But it's also available on Youtube:

Turd Ferguson and Alasdair Macleod on the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment

As mentioned above, the NFP numbers this morning threw nearly everyone for a loop, at least initially. Then, once folks were able to "look under the hood", they discovered that things aren't quite so rosy. ZeroHedge opened the door ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-429000-statistical-jobs) and then Jim Quinn kicked it down ( https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=38358).

Crude oil is really cooking today and must be watched closely next week. I've got the October crude pushing $92 as we head into the close. A move above the highs from late July near $93 and we'll see crude sets its sights upon $100. Obviously, $100 crude would have an impact on the metals.

This week's CoT is going to be very interesting. Once I see the numbers this afternoon, I'll add some thoughts in the comments section of this thread, so please look for that sometime after 3:30 EDT.

Lastly, "Turd's Army" just completed another stellar month under General Maguire's leadership. We know that it can sometimes be a logistical challenge to perfectly mimic Andy's trades and we're working on that. In the meantime, some folks have chosen instead to simply trade in larger size. I found a thread at goldismoney.com where the service is being discussed. Please check it out. (If you're interested, August would be a fine time to consider a trial membership.) https://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?33861-4-month-results-after-using-Andrew-Mcguire-service&p=407494&posted=1#post407494

And here's the link to the service: https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

Lastly, I promised you a wild week this week and it certainly was. Not surprisingly, it turned out almost exactly as we expected. Next week, however, promises to be very exciting as well. I urge you to take the weekend to relax and rest. The summer is getting hotter by the day and you need to be ready for whatever lies ahead.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  408 Comments

Bohemian
Aug 4, 2012 - 3:23pm

My simple KISS system...

As I wrote here before, I buy ASE here, in the U.S., because as Bohemian I know for sure that they are selling it for much more in Prague, the Central Europe. For example -- 1 ASE = $43.80 today. Not bad. Also, this "premium" (or the spread) is constantly increasing, and I think that it will explode one day.

I had some great home runs with my junior oil explorers and drillers. As I've mentioned here weeks ago, I was building my portfolio for 2+ years, buying Mart Resources MMT, Pan Orient POE, Coastal CEN, Ithaca IAE, and others. Without them, my gold and silver miners would kill my portfolio (some are down 50-80%), but these oil juniors are up 150-300% and more.

PS: another VERY IMPORTANT information: Starting tomorrow, August 5, Walgreens is selling Celebrity Ham for $2.50 again. :-)))

exiledbear
Aug 4, 2012 - 3:33pm

As much as I like the idea of a PEZ

It's too reasonable to work in the current political environment. I suspect that the political class will eventually start outlawing everything, and at some point people will stop taking them seriously and just start doing whatever they want. And when the muscle the politicians have want something else besides dollars, well, who is going to make the public follow the contradictory and nonsensical rules?

Some people might call that collapse or anarchy, but you could think of it as a reversion to sanity as well.

I base my rather gloomy view on historical precedent. Or as I like to think of it - realistic views based on historical precedent.

Torpedo Fish
Aug 4, 2012 - 3:36pm

@ivars

In comparence to 1oz coins this product has a very big spread which is a show stopper for me. I buy only golden eagles, Canadian maples and Australian lunars.

Fired
Aug 4, 2012 - 3:48pm

"Anti-gov't = anarchist in

"Anti-gov't = anarchist in some folks mind."

Well, I am an anarchist, i.e., I favor a society without rulers, not one without rules.

I can think of not one thing that a legally sanctioned violent monopoly can do which could not be better done--and has been better done--by entrepreneurs in a free market.

The Obviousness of Anarchy, by John Hansnas

Anarchy refers to a society without a central political authority. But it is also used to refer to disorder or chaos. This constitutes a textbook example of Orwellian newspeak in which assigning the same name to two different concepts effectively narrows the range of thought. For if lack of government is identified with the lack of order, no one will ask whether lack of government actually results in a lack of order. And this uninquisitive mental attitude is absolutely essential to the case for the state. For if people were ever to seriously question whether government actions are really productive of order, popular support for government would almost instantly collapse.

The identification of anarchy with disorder is not a trivial matter. The power of our conceptions to blind us to the facts of the world around us cannot be gainsaid. I myself have had the experience of eating lunch just outside Temple University’s law school in North Philadelphia with a brilliant law professor who was declaiming upon the absolute necessity of the state provision of police services. He did this just as one of Temple’s uniformed private armed guards passed by us escorting a female student to the Metro stop in this crime-ridden neighborhood that is vastly underserved by the Philadelphia police force.

A wise man once told me that the best way to prove that something is possible is to show that it exists. That is the strategy I shall adopt in this article. I intend to show that a stable, successful society without government can exist by showing that it has, and to a large extent, still does.

An American Experiment in Anarcho-Capitalism: The Not So Wild, Wild West, by Terry L. Anderson and P. J. Hill

The West during this time often is perceived as a place of great chaos, with little respect for property or life. Our research indicates that this was not the case; property rights were protected and civil order prevailed. Private agencies provided the necessary basis for an orderly society in which property was protected and conflicts were resolved. These agencies often did not qualify as governments because they did not have a legal monopoly on "keeping order." They soon discovered that "warfare" was a costly way of resolving disputes and lower cost methods of settlement (arbitration, courts, etc.) resulted. In summary, this paper argues that a characterization of the American West as chaotic would appear to be incorrect

What Is Anarchy?, by Butler Shaffer

I am often asked if anarchy has ever existed in our world, to which I answer: almost all of your daily behavior is an anarchistic expression. How you deal with your neighbors, coworkers, fellow customers in shopping malls or grocery stores, is often determined by subtle processes of negotiation and cooperation. Social pressures, unrelated to statutory enactments, influence our behavior on crowded freeways or grocery checkout lines. If we dealt with our colleagues at work in the same coercive and threatening manner by which the state insists on dealing with us, our employment would be immediately terminated. We would soon be without friends were we to demand that they adhere to specific behavioral standards that we had mandated for their lives.

Should you come over to our home for a visit, you will not be taxed, searched, required to show a passport or driver’s license, fined, jailed, threatened, handcuffed, or prohibited from leaving. I suspect that your relationships with your friends are conducted on the same basis of mutual respect. In short, virtually all of our dealings with friends and strangers alike are grounded in practices that are peaceful, voluntary, and devoid of coercion.

I would hope at least one or two people here might take the time to read the full articles excerpted above. Most of us have been indoctrinated into a belief in the necessity of the state. Many people have here have managed to free themselves from most of the BS they've been feed most of their lives. That BS is deeper than many realize. Don't be afraid to question, not just some things, but everything.

PS: Keep stacking. :)

ancientmoney
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:09pm

the price of gas and things

In 1964, the last silver 90% coinage was made in the U.S. Gas was 30 cents/gal. Three dimes got you a gallon of gas.

Today, a gallon cost $3.95/gal. However, if I trade in two 1964 dimes to a coin dealer, I'll get $4 in return--enough to buy that gallon of gas and get a 5 cent cup of coffee (ha-ha).

So you see, despite all the hullaballoo about rising gas prices, they are actually 33% lower than they were in 1964. At least, in real money terms.

You can do the same analysis on cars ($2200 in 1964, $25,000 today, food, etc. abd you'll get similar results.

All that stuff is still the same-it's just the money that's changed.

opticsguy
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:11pm

SRS, rE: Hecla`

The Lucky Friday mine collapse took a lot of silver out of production, silver that I personally didn't want them to sell at $27/oz. IIRC, the ore grades there were pretty good. Better that that silver stays in the ground for now, right?

RRJJ ivars
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:15pm

Ivars, I'm invested about

Ivars, I'm about 70/30 in Au/Ag. In Sweden there is VAT on silver but I've bought from Germany and Estonia. Sure the premium is still much higher than gold but I want to have silver in my stack since I believe in the fundamentals for the white metal. I mean if your charts are even some what correct both metals will be much higher in a few years and who will be thinking of the premiums then?

In Sweden gold bars are much more recognized than gold coins and have been the main way of investing in gold for ages. I like the Valcambi split 50g bar (i don't have any myself).

By the way you wouldn't have any opinion on how the Swedish krona will fair in the years to come. Living in a country with a small currency is yet another piece of the puzzle one must add to this complex equation.

RRJJ

Eric Original
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:16pm

Price of Gas

A couple of weeks ago, gas was 3.59 per gallon in my town. This week it went from 3.69 to 3.79 to 3.95 as of today.

Don't know if I can afford to drive down to Walgreens for my hams any more. :(

Gonna need to start thinking about "Plan B".

SRSrocco
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:33pm

ENERGY AT THE PEBBLE PROJECT & HECLA

Fritz..... with the big miners such as Barrick, Newmont and even Fresnillo, we can get fuel usage amounts in diesel and then make an approximation of cost per tonne. However, SilverCorp and other miners such as First Majestic, don't list their diesel usage... maybe now with the new sustainability reports.

As per Energy Usage at the Alaska Pebble Project... they will be using onsite natural gas electric generating plants. However, they will still be using those massive haul trucks:

The model 797 gets about 0.3 mpg or consumes 65 gallons per hour. Not only will the Alaska Pebble Project use trucks like this, they have a plan to haul the concentrate to a port 104 miles away. Think about that.

Opticsguy..... yeah, Hecla may have been wise to keep their metal in the ground

ivars
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:45pm

Torpedo Fish, RRJJ-

Torpedo Fish, RRJJ- Completely agree, as we are investing a bit further ahead, even 20% above spot is not drastic, but so far I have bought only 10 oz silver because of that. I think I am invested 95% Au/5% silver. Silver takes so much place...

BillyBoy
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:58pm

I was just browsing on the

I was just browsing on the Valcambi site and found this rather bullish chart there. I was wondering if someone on here had this data for silver available and could throw together a sexy excel chart for silver vs. 200dma

bardian Puck Smith
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:21pm

Anarchy

Thank you Puck. Well done. Security(order) is a scarce good that requires labor just like anything else. A monopoly on scarce goods lead to high cost and low quality. Most haven't put all the pieces together yet. Even here.

SaratogaPrepper
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:28pm

OughtImpliesCan - Saratoga ATM outage

I'm just a few miles down the road and haven't heard anything about any problems with ATM's. Hopefully they have it fixed by tomorrow. The Wife and I are planning on attending so she can handily pick losing nags just before they head to the glue factory.

Edit: Actually hoping they don't have the ATM problem fixed, should save me some $$$.

Nice present in mail today though. Received my American Eagle San Francisco Two coin Silver Proof Set! SWEET!!

Magpie
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:29pm

He has to be a Cloward-Pivens agent

https://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/04/Obama-Economic-Plan-...

A new analysis of Mr. Obama’s budget reveals the president’s plan would add $10.6 trillion in debt accumulation over the next decade, bringing the U.S. federal debt to a jaw-dropping $25.4 trillion.

Magpie
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:44pm

Continuity of government

https://occupycorporatism.com/government-silently-positions-for-martial-...

One possible scenario was the use of cluster bomb units (CBUs) that will emit upon detonation, a “sleep and kill” chemical weapon that will not disturb infrastructure, but is lethal to all living things within the effected zone. Santilli describes these particular 3 unit CBUs as shaped like water-heaters with a coned top and plunger-like device. Once deployed in the air, a parachute assists these CBUs to the targeted area. And when detonated, a deadly chemical gas will kill every human and animal in the specified cordoned area.

This is just one example, says Santilli, as to the lengths the US armed forces are trained to make sure continuity of government is preserved.

Boswell
Aug 4, 2012 - 6:14pm

Run the App to locate neighbor Dem voters

@ShortStack

Thought I had a solution, but it is currently iOS (iPhone) only. ;-(

If they come out with an Android version...

Here is a program (Android Emulator) that lets you run Android apps on a PC.

https://www.bluestacks.com

bardian
Aug 4, 2012 - 6:35pm

@bardian

Thanks, I try. I also seem to recall that Turd has expressed a dislike of the idea of anarchy, so I don't push it too hard. However, I have come to conclusion that a fully voluntary society is the only one that can be called in any way moral since it demands universal ethical standards--not one law for the rulers and another for the serfs--so I can't just leave it alone completely, but I try to be a gentleman about it.

Also, it tends to be a bit off topic unless someone actually starts discussing forms of government. In that case I try to share what I have come to understand without being argumentative about it.

I can only think that for thousands of years people accepted legal chattel slavery as normal and anyone who suggested it should be abolished was considered idealistic at best, dangerous at worst. There will come a day when people finally recognize the insanity of statism. Till then...

BillyBoy
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:02pm

Not sure if this is what you meant, BillyBoy,

...but here is the chart I've been keeping since I started stacking. It uses the London fix.

As to buy and sell signals, I don't have a clue since I buy every month and don't intend to sell until it's the only thing I have left.


Aug 4, 2012 - 7:09pm
Darth Smoker
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:16pm
GoldMania3000
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:29pm

Price of food

Yesterday I went to the grocery store. I'm one person with a cat. I bought food for a couple of days $91.00. O yeah i bought a bag of bird food. 4 small bags of food with some cat treats and a bag of bird food. 91$.. what do familys do.

treefrog
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:55pm

we live in interesting times

tennessee democrats nominate an anti-gay conspiracy theorist for u.s. senate. yes, that's the democrats, not a typo, democrats!

https://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/08/mark-clayton-tennessee-democrat...

Byzantium
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:03pm

Trader Dan

Agreed, and an important read, but is he not ridiculing us believers in market conspiracies?

"I wish that my friends in the gold community who keep attributing every single period of downward price action or sideway activity in the gold market to some nefarious suppression attempt by the bullion banks would realize that they are losing credibility among professionals whenever they assert such things. As a firm believer in the view that the feds have a vested interest in keeping the gold price under wraps, it is distressing to read some of the recent comments that I have seen attempting to explain why gold and silver are currently not trending higher."

ClinkinKY treefrog
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:19pm
kingbee4
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:27pm

Harry Reid

Harry Reid is a true idiot politician.

He says paying income tax is voluntary. We all know that is ridiculous. But if you listen closely, it is true if you use his stupid definition. His definition of voluntary is that the gov. does not deduct taxes from your income, you pay set the witholding or pay at the end of the year. He admits there are penalties if you don't pay. But penalties does not mean it's involuntary because you chose whether to pay and didn't have the gov. take the money. So to an idiot that redefines terms outside normal understanding - political speak - it is a voluntary tax system. And to think the American people actually elect idiots like that. Wake up Nevada!

donnojackshit The Vet
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:33pm

@the Vet

I would love to find a dealer in Oz that deals in a spread of 1.5% each way.

In September, I have allocated a couple of days to visiting every single bullion dealer in Sydney, and then in Brisbane to establish a relationship when it comes time to do a gold silver swop.

treefrog
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:35pm

clink,

the best explanation i can come up with is that there's a recessive "loon" gene in democratic voters that only manifests in senatorial primaries. deja uv: south carolina last time around.

Byzantium
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:42pm

Conflicting advice

Of course, Norcini is ostensibly attacking the notion that every price drop should be attributed to the cartel.

I like & follow Dan's blog, but he often contradicts / challenges my own preferred wisdoms.

For example, does one follow Santa's view that one should 'be right & sit tight,' or Norcini's observation that the trading floors are often 'littered with the bodies of those who were right to the bitter end'?

I guess Norcini is talking specifically about day-trading strategy, and Sinclair is talking about long term commitments, the latter never to be on margin....

Rico
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:44pm

I don't think Norcini is

I don't think Norcini is ridiculing believers in market conspiracies--he's just saying they're wrong.

donnojackshit SRSrocco
Aug 4, 2012 - 8:45pm

@SRS

Another great post Steve.

Whilst reading this post, I wondered about these issues of future sustainable energy in relation to Jim Sinclair's Tanzanian mine?

As I consider Jim one of the good guys in this world wide cesspool of fraud, have you ever done any research on his (ad)venture or made available some of your above research to him?

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