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Quick Monday Morning Update

Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...

"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.


A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, toosmiley)


And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Peter · Jul 30, 2012 - 10:34pm

miners stock price. They are attempting to discourage any interest by the general populace in investing in ANYTHING precious metals related.They are playing the manipulation game across the entire sector-it is so obvious-they are getting more desperate-the end of that game is FAST approaching.

tyberious · Jul 30, 2012 - 11:05pm


<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2ppFfy_Gp7Y?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
GOLD MANIPULATION ENDING SOON? - Alasdair Macleod Interview Part 1
John Doe · Jul 30, 2012 - 11:16pm

Given the content of Turd's posting, do you see any upside to buying RMBs today when they are not gold-backed? I do not know a whole lot about this area, but to my uninitiated and uninformed mind it seems that the value of the RMBs will increase in the future, especially against US dollars. Don't get me wrong - I'm all about stacking the physical metal. I ask whether it's worth getting a few thousand (in US dollars) worth of RMBs as well?

Rui John Doe · Jul 30, 2012 - 11:45pm

I don't think the Chinese politicians are necessarily more trustworthy than Obamneys on this side of Pacific.

Icarus waxybilldupp · Jul 31, 2012 - 12:20am

Waxybuildupp asks: "What is the thought here in Turdville about some massive FED intervention in the European banking system that somehow twists and turns it's way into some form of QE that feeds the US banking system as well?"

You need two giant crystal balls to answer this one. My uninformed opinion is that they are going to wait until the last possible minute to initiate any type of QE. The last time they launched QE, it resulted in massive worldwide inflation in foodstuffs, and precipitated the Arab Spring where thousands lost their lives. Because of this, the recent drought in the midwest, the drought in southern Europe, and the 21% decline in monsoon rains in India, which will by itself cause food prices to rise this winter, the FED is going to be VERY RELUCTANT to take the blame for worldwide food inflation down the road. It's going to have to get pretty bad for them to act now with another round of QE. They might jawbone it to death with leaks but they aren't going to do anything for now. IT has to get so bad that the politicians will be begging them to do it. That way they can absolve themselves of any responsibility for the blowback that results from another round of QE.

Throw in a very contentious election where they want to appear to be apolitical and I just don't see it in the cards until at least the end of the year.



Big Gene Icarus · Jul 31, 2012 - 1:08am

I believe that the Fed will come forward with a massive QE3 in some form or fashion for the very reasons you think they will wait until the last minute. The Dems are already pressing them hard for more QE since it's election time, and further, the Dems want to destroy our currency as well - therefore, they can get a two-fer by moving sooner rather than later. It might enhance Zeros reelection chances, and if not, it sets the stage to blame his successor for all the overseas unrest and inflationary pressures which are bound to follow. Therefore, the Fed will print, whether it supposedly be for the benefit of the Euros or whatever other form it might take. Food stamps will take care of rising food costs, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them issued overseas for humanitarian reasons of course. Keep your eye on the donut and not on the hole.

ivars · Jul 31, 2012 - 2:41am

Yesterday, GSR in accord with silver price development, made quite decisive move towards the uptrend support with a small break for the first time since March, so after straying away and up bit its back quite fast. That is encouraging and there is kind of triple top formation at resistance level 59,07.

At least this chart now is setting up for a serious breakout upwards for silver more and more with each day passing.

I Run Bartertown · Jul 31, 2012 - 8:02am

If we obey, this will be our childrens' future:


 Stanton said he was on a fact-finding mission regarding the extraordinarily high numbers of cruelty displayed during attacks and murders against white farmers, their families and workers; and also interviewed community leaders about the widespread anti-Afrikaner discrimination and hatespeech emanating from the ANC-regime.

“We at Genocide Watch have enough suspicion that there may be an organised effort at a genocide in South Africa, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely’...He had spoken to many Afrikaners from all walks of life and is returning with hitherto-unknown details about atrocities.

He also urged the Afrikaners to ‘fight back using the courts and the policing system, and ‘for God’s sake don’t ever give up your guns, despite the gun laws.’

The courts are complicit.

The international community is complicit.

​It really comes down to having (and eventually using) guns. Once you lose those, all kinds of 'unthinkable' things can follow.

winemaker · Jul 31, 2012 - 8:12am

Thanks for spiking my blood pressure this morning!

These halfwit statists need to just shrivel up and die. (Can I still say that on the internet?)

Lincoln Hahn · Jul 31, 2012 - 8:59am

I dub thee The Ebola Outbreak Rally ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Having Too Much Fun devil PS Didn't Icarus fall from the sky when he flew too near the sun and suffered waxy build up on his wings ?

Short Stack QE to infinity · Jul 31, 2012 - 9:13am

I would agree the actions of denying someone the rain-water is an act of kleptocracy IF it were one neighbor denying his neighbor of the water, such as damming a river.

But, when a government (even a local government) does it, kleptocracy just does not fit.

Icarus Lincoln Hahn · Jul 31, 2012 - 9:21am

Moneda's asks: "PS Didn't Icarus fall from the sky when he flew too near the sun and suffered waxy build up on his wings ? Moneda's asks:"

Yes he did. And like the Icarus of mythology, I too have also had my wings clipped and crashed and burned. (it's a long story)



Gold Dog · Jul 31, 2012 - 10:40am

" The Bernank and his cronies are lying pieces of shyte"- Plato

Ed Yu · Aug 1, 2012 - 12:44am

I paid for a coin at the time the euro in 1100

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Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

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