Quick Monday Morning Update

75
Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...


"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, toosmiley)

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 197

  75 Comments

beardeus · Jul 30, 2012 - 2:15pm

Will metals rally or drop

Will metals rally or drop with the Bernank speaking this week?

Any chance we drop below $28 or further?

Bobbejaan ClinkinKY · Jul 30, 2012 - 2:29pm

@ClinkinKY .... An Off-The-Wall alternative thought

Fair enough, Squire .... Sorry my original musings weren't any use.

.

Obviously I don't know your circumstances, but what about "The Bank of Mum & Dad" (or Brother/Sister/Rich Pet/etc) ?

Is there perhaps anyone in your close family that you could maybe arrange a Private Loan with, where you could perhaps use the portion of your stash you would (otherwise) have to sell as "Security" for the loan ??

That way, you could retain your stash, and the "Loan Interest" goes to more-deserving family rather than bastard-bankers or credit-card-companies.

.

I've made several similar such loans to family over the years (In my family, I AM "The Bank of Uncle Bob"), and IF this is a possible route for you I would strongly recommend drawing up a "Simple yet Solid" Legal Contract to protect BOTH you & them from "Judge Judy" scenarios ... IF you did indeed end up going this route, I would be happy to give you a copy of my own personal draft-contract which you should readily be able to adapt for your own personal needs.

Cheers

Bob

Torpedo Fish · Jul 30, 2012 - 2:31pm
· Jul 30, 2012 - 2:33pm

Two interesting charts

Ripped from Santa.

The first is a chart of historic 10-year treasury yields:

And you've likely seen this before but here it is again, nonetheless:

Fired TF · Jul 30, 2012 - 2:40pm

Thanks for those charts from

Thanks for those charts from Santa, Turd. I was going to post them myself. Really gives folks "the big picture", in every sense of the word. Hang on to your giant yellow hats folks, its going to be one wild bucking bronco ride...

edvardd · Jul 30, 2012 - 2:52pm
tobydaniel · Jul 30, 2012 - 2:57pm

Todays action in silver

Im not buying it at all. The action is WAY too controlled. I mean spike up exactly at 28 and then a couple hours later a small spike exactly to 28.20. LOL. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Am I the only one who thinks that this action today is just way too controlled? If we were experiencing a breakout, this thing would be all over the frickin place. Not these pansy moves that a you need a ruler just to draw the preciseness of todays move in silver.

tyberious · Jul 30, 2012 - 3:05pm

Nice

I wish the Mayan's, Silver Libertads where in a smaller denomination.

Fired tobydaniel · Jul 30, 2012 - 3:09pm

Silver action

Up before down. Ben has a meeting tomorrow or the next day.

G00dfella · Jul 30, 2012 - 3:17pm

today

Too many people think this ISN'T the breakout, so it could very well be the opposite

agrock · Jul 30, 2012 - 4:22pm

@ turd .... hat contest

you should run another hat contest on when the next debt ceiling debacle rolls out (date of breach) 

it will be so close to the election just don't know if this debacle will be 'pre-election' or 'post-election' </sarc off>

Sad what America is coming down to... 

Treasury Admits It Underestimated Debt Needs, Predicts Ceiling Breach In 2012; $600 Billion More Debt In Second Half

Back on April 30, when the US Treasury, together with the TBAC chaired by Matt Zames (who as everyone knows is being groomed to take over JPMorgan after Jamie gracefully steps down) sat down put together its latest debt funding needs projection, we openly mocked the numbers when we said "Now obviously we are all for the US needing less debt, however we wonder: did the US discover some magical source of tax revenue: last we checked the companies with $100+ billion in cash were paying virtually zero taxes, and US workers were making less and less courtesy of more and more jobs being converted into temp jobs with lower wages, and less withheld tax as a result." Sure enough, minutes ago the Treasury just admitted what we and our readers knew all along: in its quarterly Treasury refunding appetizer, it noted that during the "September 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $276 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $60 billion. This borrowing estimate is $12 billion higher than announced in April 2012. The increase is primarily due to lower receipts, higher outlays, redemptions of portfolio holdings by the Federal Reserve System, and higher issuances of State and Local Government securities." In other words: if only it wasn't for that pesky lack of revenue and excess spending our mocking would have been for nothing. Alas, it was spot on, and as a result instead of needing $253 billion in fiscal Q4, the US will need $272 billion (after having a $5 greater financing need in fiscal Q3, calendar Q1 as also expected).

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-admits-it-underestimated-debt-needs-predicts-ceiling-breach-2012-600-billion-more-debt

cowdiddly · Jul 30, 2012 - 4:29pm

Damn Edvardd

Is that a hub cap off a Cadillac or a silver manhole cover?

ClinkinKY · Jul 30, 2012 - 4:35pm

On This Week's Edition Of "Egyptian Punk'd"...

...because there's nothing funnier than a kidnapping with gunfire and blindfolds.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Video unavailable

------------------------------------------------------------------

In case you missed last week's edition:

TV Prank Goes Bad

------------------------------------------------------------------

WTF is wrong with these people? (rhetorically speaking)

Punk-Assets · Jul 30, 2012 - 4:44pm
babaganoush2307 · Jul 30, 2012 - 4:51pm

@ Edvardd ^^^

That is the coolest coin I have ever seen! yescheekyyes

edvardd · Jul 30, 2012 - 4:55pm

@ cowdiddly

This coin is Pushkin's fairy tales, one kilogram of

edvardd · Jul 30, 2012 - 5:03pm
babaganoush2307 · Jul 30, 2012 - 5:12pm

^^^

So f'en epic! yes

If you don't mind me asking, how much you drop on that bad boy?

tobydaniel ClinkinKY · Jul 30, 2012 - 6:18pm

Most crazy thing Ive almost ever seen

Thanks for sharing that. Im speachless. 

tyberious · Jul 30, 2012 - 6:23pm
QE to infinity · Jul 30, 2012 - 6:37pm
Short Stack · Jul 30, 2012 - 6:58pm

Property Rights

It's called Socialism. Liberal/Socialists are out to control everything. That's what they do. They want to control land, homes, businesses, our children and everyone and everything else.

Both Socialism and Communism lead to the same goal - Totalanarianism. (need a spell check on that) The only difference between Socialism and Communism is in the method taken to achieve the goal.

Communism is taking control by force ie. Russia, China and Cuba. Socialism is taking control by deceit and law. 

Karankawa · Jul 30, 2012 - 7:17pm

Understanding Different Forms of Government

Ran across this somesimes back and think it does an excellent job in explaining the different forms of government. Though I'm saddened when I realize how far we have fallen from our true beginning, I find hope with the increased awareness of the Federal Reserve and the growth in Dr. Paul's message over the last 5 years.

Understanding Different Forms of Government
I Run Bartertown · Jul 30, 2012 - 7:22pm

Tail wagging the Dog

From Jamestown in 1607 to Yorktown in 1781, there was no federal government. There was no United States. Yet generations of colonists had built forts, cleared lands, created farms, established workshops. Americans fed, clothed and housed themselves, creating one of the highest standards of living on earth for 3 million people.

https://www.humanevents.com/2012/07/24/pat-buchanan-obama-america-and-ours/

How could the U.S. government have built the roads and bridges if the U.S. government did not exist before 1789? There were no public schools until the 19th century. Colleges were the creations of religious denominations. The Pell grant had not yet been invented.

Was government indispensable to Eli Whitney’s invention of the cotton gin, Robert Fulton’s invention of the steam boat, Alexander Graham Bell’s invention of the telephone, Guglielmo Marconi’s invention of the radio and Thomas Edison’s invention of the light bulb, and just about everything else?

Seeing government as antecedent to enterprise, Obama has it backward. In America, individuals, families, communities came first. Hardworking men and women built the society. Only after that did they send their best and brightest off to the House of Burgesses to discuss colonial issues.

waxybilldupp · Jul 30, 2012 - 9:03pm

Europe on the brink?

After reading this evening's offering from Harvey Organ, it sure sounds like the Euro/Spain are on the brink. Nothing has happened to improve Greece's situation and Italy is on life support. It seems that things are rapidly reaching the point of no return without late-2008 type drastic measures as implemented in the US banking system. It looks to me like the bullshit and bandaids have just about run their course.

With that intro, here's my question: What is the thought here in Turdville about some massive FED intervention in the European banking system that somehow twists and turns it's way into some form of QE that feeds the US banking system as well? I'm not totally convinced that the "dual mandate" is of any particular interest to The Bernank right now. I'm thinking the biggest issue for our FedMeister right now is to keep our TBTF banks from puking on all the Eurozone debt they have eaten. Bennie and the Jets might be more concerned about keeping Eurozone banks alive so ours don't die as well. Their track record regarding employment improvement has been a dismal failure and they probably realize they can't do jack about it anyway. They don't give a rat's butt about inflation, and in truth, would probably like some. So much for their "mandate".

"Fixing" Europe helps the US two ways (is seems): 1). Goosing the Euro lowers the dollar, which, in turn, should drop the hammer on oil and PM prices. Bennie and OBAMA! would like that. 2). "Saving" Europe takes a lot of pressure off of the stock market which should goose equities, as well. A stock market bull run and falling oil prices would certainly put a grin on the ever-smiling OBAMA! face going into the election campaign.

What do you think folks? Is our next "QE" going to be somehow, someway the "salvation" of the Eurozone? 

wax off

· Jul 30, 2012 - 9:18pm
Urban Roman QE to infinity · Jul 30, 2012 - 9:19pm

Property rights?

QE,

More significantly, when the DOJ "settled" with the big banks over "robosigning", they just abandoned four or five hundred years' worth of property rights law. You don't own your house any more.

Many Turdites like to refer to this as "socialism", but in reality it is kleptocracy. Doesn't really have that much of a political left-right slant.

This frivolous claim on your rainwater is also kleptocracy.. interestingly, they don't do it in Texas where rainwater is more precious.

Response to: What is happening to property rights in America

QE to infinity · Jul 30, 2012 - 9:28pm

@ Urban Roman

Many Turdites like to refer to this as "socialism", but in reality it is kleptocracy. Doesn't really have that much of a political left-right slant.

​I agree, I know what socialism is, and this is not it. It's kleptocracy mixed with nanny state petty micromanagement of people's lives. And just a gigantic out of control bureaucracy - ever more and more regulation to provide more jobs for bureaucrats. 

I Run Bartertown · Jul 30, 2012 - 9:28pm

Can we extradite our bankers and pols?

From the comments in the ZH link:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/07/2012730141942976671.html

An Iranian court has sentenced four people to death for a billion-dollar bank fraud that tainted the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, state media has reported.

Iranians, hit by sanctions and soaring inflation, were shocked by the scale of the $2.6bn bank loan embezzlement that was exposed last year and by allegations it was carried out by people close to the political elite or with their assent.

Of the thirty-nine people tried for the fraud, the biggest in the country's history, four were sentenced to hang...

Zoltan · Jul 30, 2012 - 9:47pm

Excellent Link Turd

Nice to see the "official" documents from the past. I kind of remember the original article from a few years ago (wow, no wonder I am cynical).

I think the sovereign gold entrusted to the banks is long gone. Their holdings on behalf of clients in futures markets and ETF's are smoke and mirrors. You can't even trust the brokers and banks with the sanctity of the money in your financial accounts.

When will the cracks really start to show? Hope you're right Turd about the explosive month upcoming. The bad guys already vaporized the small investor longs with the MFG scandal (and now PFG). Who is left playing on the Crimex?

I still think the lease rate story is a huge red flag. Would love to know what percent of gold "holdings" are "leased". Any guesses anyone? Certainly the unallocated is gone, probably most of the allocated as well. I don't think a lot of the ETF PM ever existed (just paper entries) Even if they are only leveraged twenty to one that is still 95 percent gone.

Z

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Recent Comments

by AGXIIK, 18 min 2 sec ago
by Maestro, 19 min 11 sec ago
by Thomas More, 22 min 26 sec ago
by Ferd Torgerson, 50 min 5 sec ago