Quick Monday Morning Update

Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...

"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.


A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)


And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 30, 2012 - 11:31am

Beat you!


Be Prepared
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:36am


Turd.... you are really getting around with all these interviews! Thumbs up! I am super glad to see that things are really shaping up for you. I can't believe we are at the end of July already.... time flies...

August is shaping up to be an interesting battle time. Will silver launch or rattle around the $26 - $31 range? Will Bernanke finally do what he wants to do and push the formal "print" button? Will Tom and Jerry ever end their epic cat and mouse chase?


Jul 30, 2012 - 11:37am

I'll second that, Be Prepared

Where is everybody? Glued to the TV watching CNBS?

wax off

edit: What the hell happened? Just noticed the Italian and Spanish equity markets UP 3%! Did they win the lottery?

Jul 30, 2012 - 11:41am

Ag ~~ give us a break baby

fOOtbaLL starts this wEEk. are you ready?

Jul 30, 2012 - 11:42am


Who knows the reason for the surge in silver?

ClinkinKY ferretflat
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:42am



(Just to piss off the "tradition" haters:)

Jul 30, 2012 - 11:53am

Down the Memory Hole

Okay third time I'm posting this chart.

Now, will it show the spike or not? Currently on my screen it shows the spike (but if you click on the link the chart is flat)

My second chart (where I commented that the spike was showing) is now flat? WTF?

Please comment on whether you can see the spike or not. And then check back later, cause it my change again.


Edit: Now it is flat, boy that was fast.

Here is the data though that it is based on.

Gold Lease Rates

July 30, 2012
1 m -0.0903% +0.2397
2 m -0.0227% +0.3356
3 m 0.0486% +0.4386
6 m 0.2164% +0.7231
1 y 0.5245% +1.0462
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:54am

Why the surge in silver?

I might be showing my misunderstanding, but in my view.....

it has been noted recently by Turd, Norcini & others, that the hedge funds are historically net short, at a time when the commercials are now net long, bar JPM who though the only commercial net short, is increasingly reducing its short position.

Looks like some hedgies may be bailing out / short covering, noticing that they are out of step with the big boys.

This might start an avalanche, else it will force JPM to add extra shorts, and face down the market all alone.

Bobbejaan Be Prepared
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:01pm

An (almost) impossible mission, perhaps?

Be Prepared asked :-

August is shaping up to be an interesting battle time. Will silver launch or rattle around the $26 - $31 range? Will Bernanke finally do what he wants to do and push the formal "print" button? Will Tom and Jerry ever end their epic cat and mouse chase?

The answers to your questions are ... Never, Maybe, & Probably.







Now all you've got to do is figure out which answer matches up with which question !

Should you decide to accept the mission, Mr. Phelps, I will deny this conversation ever took place ... This post will self-destruct in 30 years or so.


Jul 30, 2012 - 12:11pm


tiny elvis says that future silver and gold prices will be "huge" !


Jul 30, 2012 - 12:12pm

Minning down Silver Up

I've seen this before. The EE is trying to sucker in buyers to later pull their bids tomorrow morning in the early hours of EU trading. Don't fall for this.


Jul 30, 2012 - 12:23pm

The why of silvers rise

I thought I heard that there will be an ending to CFTC investigation of the silver price manipulation, this is supposed to happen in August? This may result in an exposure of JPM positions, so there may be a short-dump happening.

Not really sure if I understand it, or have it right.

Jul 30, 2012 - 12:29pm

Sincere question for the great minds here...

...if someone (let's just say a friend) had to sell a portion of his/her stack due to lack of income (due to medical problems or whatever) would you ( the collective you) sell today while metals are up, or wait a day or two to see if the "surge" continues? My friend is simply looking for an educated guess and wouldn't hold it against anyone if their prognostication was wrong.

My friend (oh, for shit's sake, it's me I'm talking about:) has diligently stacked for the last year and a half and is bummed out that I have to sell anything, but life must go on (or so they tell me) so any, and all, opinions will be taken into consideration. Thanks in advance.

Short Stack ClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:45pm

Re: Sincere question...

Just MHO but I suspect silver will go up this week until Friday when the jobs report comes out, then TPTB will do their utmost to crash the price down.

If this proves to be the case, and you must sell, Thursday would be the best time to do so.

But what do I know. I'm just another turdite in the ol' porcelain bowl of life !

(No, stop ! Don't pull that lever you'll- Ah, nuts. Flushed again.)

Jul 30, 2012 - 12:45pm

Just had to burn my LP of Michael Oldfield's "Tubular Bells"...

...which I bought after seeing "The Exorcist". (Yeah, I'm old:)


Managing to squeeze politics into the opening ceremony of the Olympics on Friday, NBC hosts Matt Lauer and Meredith Vieira cheered a tribute to Britain's government-run National Health Service, with Lauer declaring: "Back in the states...we're locked in this kind of partisan debate over the future of health care in our own country. Here, they feel so strongly about their health care system, they're actually celebrating it as part of the Olympic opening ceremony." [Listen to the audio or watch the video after the jump]

Read more: https://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2012/07/30/nbcs-lauer-and-vieira-gush-over-olympic-tribute-britains-government-ru#ixzz227oUkZPl

Jul 30, 2012 - 12:48pm


I would hold off for as long as possible before selling because we are still near an unnatural low price for the metals (even at $28). Hope for and expect that higher prices are coming.


Jul 30, 2012 - 12:52pm

Re: Mike Oldfield

I thought Mike Oldfield was the only good thing about that opening ceremony... Why burn something that represents the only good part about something where everything else was just plainly bad?!

ClinkinKY achmachat
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:55pm

@ achamat

I was being facetious. I would never burn an LP

Jul 30, 2012 - 12:58pm

On selling now

I believe we are at low prices, but if you have to sell. Sell a little at a time. Try and get payment arrangements to give yourself more time and choice in the matter. Also some doctors are willing to give a discount for cash. (or are stackers themselves.)

Jul 30, 2012 - 1:06pm

Clink- 2c worth

My opinion only, but I think you would be kicking yourself in as little as one month's time. TF has been adamant that huge things are afoot and will happen as quickly as the next few weeks. I have thought this through, thought about who his sources might be. I have come to the conclusion that I 1. believe him, 2. I believe his sources, and hence 3. I would not be at all surprised by some really consequential things happening very soon. Explosive and historic are not hyperbole, the man has chosen his words carefully. I would be VERY mad at myself if I sold on the doorstep of that kind of move, after suffering through the doldrums for so long.

So if it were me, I would put as much of this payment as I could on a credit card (backed by your PM's) and give this six weeks... you can always sell in September if you feel the need, and pay it off then. Again, just my 2-cents. Best of luck, my friend.

Jul 30, 2012 - 1:11pm

Thanks for the responses...

...PM and public. This place really is a "community".

Thanks TF for providing it!!! (Most exclamation points I've ever typed:)

I Run Bartertown
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:14pm

No Rifles?

"Farmers in Fauquier County are planning to bring their pitchforks to an Aug. 2 hearing before the Board of Zoning Appeals to protest the arbitrary treatment of one of their own. On April 30, Zoning Administrator Kimberley Johnson sent Martha Boneta an official cease-and-desist notice for selling farm products and hosting a birthday party for her best friend's 10-year-old daughter on her 70-acre Paris, Va., farm without a special administrative permit."


Jul 30, 2012 - 1:14pm

Re: Sincere question

If you've only been stacking for a year or so then the chances are you'd currently be out of pocket by cashing in now. Silver is also down circa 14% more than Gold since April (ex $ variations), so if you've got a Silver stack it's got a fair chance of outperforming Gold at these levels.

Just a thought but have you considered funding your hopefully short term cash flow deficit through a credit card (0% for 24months here in UK at the mo). Cash in just enough physical to fund the minimum payments and hopefully your retained PM's will increase in price sufficient to repay the balance in 2 yrs?

ClinkinKY Maximillion
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:23pm

@ Maximillion

My DCA is approx. $30. Most of my stack was purchased below $32. As for your suggestion of funding shortfalls through credit cards, that's a "last resort". Thanks for your input. Appreciated.

Bobbejaan ClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:28pm


...if someone (let's just say a friend) had to sell a portion of his/her stack due to lack of income (due to medical problems or whatever) would you ( the collective you) sell today while metals are up, or wait a day or two to see if the "surge" continues? My friend is simply looking for an educated guess and wouldn't hold it against anyone if their prognostication was wrong.

My friend (oh, for shit's sake, it's me I'm talking about:) has diligently stacked for the last year and a half and is bummed out that I have to sell anything, but life must go on (or so they tell me) so any, and all, opinions will be taken into consideration.

Hmmm, difficult question .... For what it's worth, I recently faced a similar position over getting my dad's cataracts & macular degeneration done privately rather than waiting on the NHS (UK-equivalent of US-MediWhatever) waiting-list until many months after he became totally blind for it (eventually) to get done (by which time the AMD damage could be irreversible).

I was very tempted to sell some of my PM-stash to cover the cost as being "the easiest option", but was VERY scared that Sod's Law would kick in & make it hard/expensive to replace what I sold (now) at some unknown point in the future.

As my stash is primarily for long-term family-insurance & potential off-grid retirement-savings, I am personally extremely loath to part with it just in case the SHTF, so I eventually decided to sell off some of my old motorbikes & other non-essential personal-junk on the basis that these would be of lesser value in my old-age OR if the SHTF .... It is amazing how much "generally useless, but collectively valuable in TODAY'S society" Crap one acquires during the course of a lifetime.


If you deep-down believe that "a financial hurricane is approaching" (as many of us here do), have you perhaps got anything else "sellable / tradeable" that might become of little/no "practical value" in the event of such a financial shitstorm (or even just a sudden PM-price-rise) ? .... This might possibly allow you to fund your current needs whilst keeping your stash intact for a future Rainy Day ?

I hope my musings may be of some small use in your difficult considerations.




ClinkinKY Bobbejaan
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:41pm

Thank you Bobbejaan

Hmmm, going through my closets/storage space now. 8-Track player/tapes...no. Cassette player/tapes...no. You get the picture

(I sold off most of my "crap" a couple years ago when I "woke up":)

I sincerely appreciate the suggestion though.



Jul 30, 2012 - 1:51pm


Just do what you gotta do and don't worry about it. Thinking you might miss the boat on the big rise is only applicable to traders. I know I'm preaching to the choir but there are many things that have value in a post poop/fan situation, mindset and skills mostly. I think a man will rarely go wrong trying to do the right thing. Best of luck to ya!

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:00pm

from Quinn



Posted on 30th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

Jamie Dimon

I’ve spent three years of my life running this fucking blog and what good has it done? When you see the answers to this question from a random sample of 990 Americans, you realize that we’re finished. There is no hope. The willfull ignorance, utter stupidity, and general disinterest in the most important issues confronting this nation by the average American insures that nothing will be changed until complete devastation and ruin rain down upon this crumbling empire. It really makes it tough to get up in the morning.

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:11pm

Have you guys seen this?

Ominous: Twitter has shut down ' account after complained about tweets he wrote that criticised its coverage.

It is unconfirmed, but his account is suspended.

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:12pm

Silver is turning back to its

Silver is turning back to its exponential growth channel :

But at the same time I expect short outbreak of DXY to 88 very soon, followed by a mini crash (down to 84?) :

So where would the minimal silver price-cross of these two trends lie? Quite possible for it to happen within next few weeks, but at what silver value? My bet is no less than 26, perhaps close, as silver prices have lately diverged away from EUR ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/567147) but WTFDIN. Anyway, it should be a relatively short moment, then silver takes off like a rocket we all hope it is. But, so far 60-70 USD seems to be the sure limit for the first leg happening until somewhere in February 2013.


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
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4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
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4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
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4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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