A Weekend Pass

Sat, Jul 28, 2012 - 1:09pm

The charts are so compelling that I felt I had to update the site today. I've also got a special promo for you some come on in..

First of all, the charts. I was alerted to this development yesterday by this terrific piece of analysis from KWN. Tom Fitzpatrick of Citigroup is a competent technician and his analysis here is spot-on.(https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/27_KWN_-_Special_Friday_Gold_%26_Silver_Chart_Mania.html) The metals then closed strongly yesterday and we did, in fact, get bullish outside reversals in both gold and silver. Again, this is not a be-all-end-all indicator of a pending bull rush...but...it's certainly another log for the fire. Note, too, that even on the short-term charts, the metals have broken out of their recent pennants and seem to be setting sights on the horizontal, top-of-range resistance levels of $1640 and $29.

Trader Dan has posted some excellent charts, too. When you have a moment, you should check them out. https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/07/gold-chart-and-comments.html

Yesterday's CoT was very, very interesting...at least in gold. The silver CoT was lifeless but at least it maintains a very bullish posture. The gold CoT is where the action was but, even there, it comes with a caveat. The survey was taken so close to August contract expiration that it was undoubtedly affected by it. Some of this will come out in the wash next week but, for now, the gold CoT was very bullish. Below is a C&P of my comments written shortly after the report was published at 3:30 yesterday. If you want to see the report yourself, here's a link: https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1343417555.php

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on July 27, 2012 - 3:02pm.

Let's start with silver because it is a non-event, big zero. The Large Specs added 500 net long and The Evil Empire added 300 net short <yawn>. The EE net short ratio remains at an historically low (and extraordinarily bullish) 1.33:1
Gold, on the other hand, was crazy. Now, keep in mind that this report includes a lot of selling and some rolling of the August contract. Therefore, it's a little distorted and some of this distortion will undoubtedly be worked out in next week's report. That said, check this out:
Large Spec gold longs fell by 14,389. That's a lot. The Gold Cartel, though, covered 18,696 short contracts (total at 302,693) and added 3878 new longs (total at 166,448). This is a net change of 22,574. WOW! The new net short ratio for The Gold Cartel is a have-to-be-a-misprint 1.82:1. Again and for perspective, on 8/2/11, three days before The Great Cartel Panic post the S&P downgrade of the U.S., The Gold Cartel was short 442,ooo contracts and long 155,000 for a net short ratio of 2.86:1. This means that since the beginning of The Great Panic, The Gold Cartel has been able to reduce their net short position by 56%!! Simply amazing.
The other item of significance comes from the Small Specs. These are the ultimate outsiders and the consistent victims of Cartel shenanigans. Last week, the Small Specs dumped 1,810 longs (new total 53,970) and added 4,782 new shorts (new total 30,702). Their updated net long ​ratio is just 1.76:1. Again and for perspective, at the peak of the speculation in early April 2011, the small specs in gold were long 75,706 contracts and short 21,747 for a net long ratio of 3.48:1. This means that, since 4/5/11, the small specs in gold have reduced their net long excitement by over 70%!! ​Again, simply amazing.
As you know, the CoTs are not the be-all-end-all of fundamental statistics. They are already 72 hours old and nearly obsolete when we receive them. They are useful, however, in helping us get a general "feel" for bullish or bearish potential. With this in mind, this week's report is simply another signal that the next, major move in the metals will be UP...WAY UP...and not down. Take that to the (bullion) bank.

Like the charts, the CoT must be considered as part of the whole of your analysis. That said, both the gold and silver CoTs are obviously quite bullish in regards to the Cartel net short ratios.

Clearly, the table looks set for the "explosive, hot and historic" summer I've been predicting for some time now. There is just one problem: The FOMC meeting this week. All of this....the CoT, the charts, everything looks bullish and this is almost exactly where we've been on 5 or 6 occasions this year. The metals move up and look, or even begin, to break out and then The Bernank opens his mouth and The Cartels drop the hammer. We could very well be being set up again. I can see it now. Gold rallies near or through 1640 by Tuesday, sucking in a bunch of new spec longs (Spec longs that just sold last week. See above.) Then, The Bernank "disappoints" and gold quickly drops back toward 1600. The new spec longs sell out and even go short. Finally, on Friday with a whole new, fresh batch of spec shorts to squeeze, a horrific NFP number causes the metals to spike back higher and we finish the week about where we began.

Now let me state this clearly: This is not how it has to work. The charts and the CoT look great and we are likely on the verge of a big rally. However, would anyone be surprised if the week plays out almost exactly as I've described above?

Because this is a complicated scenario and because it is such an important week ahead, I decided to make yesterday's TurdTalksMetals podcast available to everyone. As I've mentioned before, it is much easier for me to clearly express myself verbally than through typed text and yesterday's podcast was quite effective (at least I think so). To access the podcast, simply clink the link below. Once you're there, hit the "play" button and the audio will begin.


If you like what you hear, please consider joining the community. The feedback from subscribers has been overwhelmingly positive so far, so I think you'll find that it's well worth the money. Additionally, next month we'll begin interacting with some industry "heavyweights". Gonzalo has lined up James Turk to be our first victim guest and the plan is to let members submit some of the questions. After that, I'll bring in Andy, Ned, Jim, James, Dan...you name it. My goal is to get you personal access to expertise you wouldn't otherwise have. It's going to be very informative and...a lot of fun. (And if you've been holding off on joining while we worked out "the bugs", come on in now. The site is safe, secure and fully-operational.)

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend...emphasis on relaxing. Next week promises to be crazy volatile so get ready. Come back Monday with your game face on. See you then!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 29, 2012 - 9:40am

BBC - Gold v paper money: Which should we trust more?

A popular solution to the financial crisis has been to print more money, but is there another way of fixing our economy? Would the financial system be more stable if each pound, dollar or euro in our pocket was once again backed by gold?

Brian from Manchester has lost faith in money. After selling his house, he decided to turn his cash into something he says he can trust - gold.

"I started in 2005 and now I've got £200,000 worth - about half of what I own - in gold.

"If I kept all my money in the bank, the value of my work would either devalue over the long-term or it would be wiped out."

Brian's worry is that inflation will erode the value of his savings over time, or worse still, that fragile banks and governments will fail to protect them in another financial crisis.

And he is not alone in these fears.

Frances ... An investor in gold who lives in London, sold her flat in 2008 and invested £40,000 of the profit in gold, which she bought via the internet and keeps in a vault in Switzerland.

"I don't fear a financial Armageddon," she tells Radio 4's Analysis, "but I do fear governments, in their desperate search for wealth, constantly printing more money to deal with the debt that they have at the expense of people like me.

"So I need to protect against that."

Both Frances and Brian have hitched their fortunes directly to the value of gold. They have put themselves on a gold standard, if you like.

The Bank of England has printed billions of pounds in its quantitative easing programme

Some economists and politicians argue that currencies need to do the same - that we need to reforge the link between money and something tangible.

As central banks around the world print trillions of pounds, euros and dollars in new money through measures like quantitative easing, which makes more sense: believing in money that is conjured out of thin air or believing in a yellow metal you cannot eat, put in your petrol tank or even take to the shops?

It is an argument that reveals deep divisions between economists.

In the green corner are those who would print more money to get us out of trouble and in the gold corner are the folks sometimes dismissively referred to as "gold bugs", who believe we are heading for a monetary reality check.

Detlev Schlichter is a former banker and the author of Paper Money Collapse and he says the current system is fatally flawed ...





BBC - The Magic Money Elves theory of "Quantative Easing"



Cononish1314 QE to infinity
Jul 29, 2012 - 9:50am

Jeux sans frontieres

"Then, of course, sooner or later Britain will run out of money to print, and then Brits won't be able to get out anywhere, as all borders will be closed.

Not a very nice prospect, but quite possible."

B-b-but, surely the world will be forever grateful to "us" for our quirky and rambling Olympic opening ceremony?

[Don't tell me that the Daily Mail and the other metropolitan meeja can be mistaken.]

Jul 29, 2012 - 9:56am

Welcome back Bobbejaan

and with a great 'long view' post too.

How easy with a short view (even a generation or two) to assume things have got to be the way they are.

That's one of the things I love about history and travelling in different cultures. You come face to face with your normalcy bias.

Probably most people here experience a different culture just by walking out of their front door. Oreet Jimmy?

Cononish1314 El Gordo
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:04am

Gordo / Lingo

Mexican is tricky. Start lisping in the wrong places and you could be in trouble.

But if you can manage to speak Swiss then you'll go a long way.

Chevy Thunder
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:08am

Big secret?

Earlier in this thread of comments, someone mentioned something about a "secret" that is suppose to make silver explode to the upside. I've also seen this mentioned in other comments over the past few weeks. So, being the new guy here, what in Gods green Earth is this "secret"? I hate being the only one left out of a secret!

Have a wonderful and blessed Sunday.

Keep stacking' and keep the faith!

Jul 29, 2012 - 10:15am

Old advice is new again


The pointers include yelling at or subduing the shooter in some situations. The online course consists of quizzes and assignments such as telling how to respond during a gunfire assault. While the guidance may seem reminiscent of advice given to 1950s’ schoolchildren to hide under their desks to survive a nuclear attack, security professionals said people need to prepare for the increasing deadliness of mass shootings.

Cononish1314 Bobbejaan
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:21am

The road to...

I think that the 1911 Official Secrets Act, a "temporary" measure, might have been worth a mention here.

The first -- and some might say the last -- ideological and sustained socialist government which affected Englishmen (and others) did not arrive until after the end of "The road to 1945", so blame any restrictions on 'common sense' and modernism.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:21am

GSR Swaps

"GOLD/SILVER RATIO at 58.883 shows silver holding back, but it's liable to play snap-back when it moves. If you are EVER thinking about swapping gold for silver, do it NOW. Great week, but although we can see the light through the tree trunks, silver and gold have not yet left the woods. Correction lows and seasonal lows are probably behind us, and August should be a month of modest but steady gains."


Short Stack
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:34am

@Hold over

""Gold and Silver can no longer be used as money globally. Too many people. Not enough gold and silver."

And what makes you think that the world population will remain or become greater than it is now ?

Every time population in any area of the planet reaches excess for any length of time, wars break out, disease breaks out, famine breaks out, etc. etc.

Trust me, when all the smoke has cleared and the last body is put in the ground, there will still be plenty of gold and silver to go around for those that remain.

Jul 29, 2012 - 10:35am

100 oz bars are very liquid.

100 oz bars are very liquid. They can be shipped by FED EX and fully insured by parcelpro.com , jut an FYI.

Jul 29, 2012 - 10:36am

Tax on solar? I'm in Md and

Tax on solar? I'm in Md and just got the 1st leg of ours done (turned it on a few weeks ago). No tax on the system components and get 30% fed tax credit against our personal taxes as well as a $500 state coupon - kick back? What am I missing??? The total kick back is about $6750 off our taxes. I'm not yet sure I can use the whole amount against our 2012 liability or whether I have to depreciate it.

edit - forgot to mention we'll be filing for the SRECs as well.

Diesel power generator, Savonius wind turbine, full solar. I want to be able to operate off the grid if necessary.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:48am

Hyperinflation/ Controlled Deflation

Good article, though I'm not sure I agree on all points. This is just a small piece:

"I do not believe that hyperinflation is inevitable. I think it is unlikely.

Central bankers are arrogant. They really do think they have the upper hand. They really do think fiat money creation by central planners (themselves) is more powerful than free market forces (investors). They really do believe that they can find a suitable middle/muddle road between deflationary collapse and hyperinflation. So, they will not pull out all the stops. They will not hyperinflate unless Congress compels this.

The investors think the central banks can save the system from a catastrophe. I don't. But I think the central banks have their choice of catastrophes: deflation/depression vs. hyperinflation/depression. I think they will try to navigate a middle ground, but when push comes to shove, they will risk a controlled deflation, with selective bailouts for the largest banks.

The central banks are not there to save the governments, which come and go. They are there to save their clients: the largest banks. They know where their bread is buttered.

But if Congress ever nationalizes the FED, then hyperinflation is a real possibility."


Hold over Lumpy
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:48am

@ Lumpy

I dont believe its impossible by any stretch, There are a lot smarter guys than me out there, Im sure it could be reasonably worked out. Its just a matter of adding other metals to the purity to make a 1 dollar coin . Even the the 1933 $20 gold pieces are not 99%

Im pretty sure it could be done, Im pretty sure they dont want to do it either. :)

As far as being deflationary,fiat sure. But metals have held their value over time. Remember A silver quarter will still buy you a gallon of gas with change. So the metals wont be deflationary at all , fiat will. lol. Thats really where its headed anyways right?

Isn't that the bankers game plan?? We work for and hold and save depreciated dollars and they print up as much as they like while we try to keep up with the prices . They must be laughing their sick fucking ass'es off at us .Except for us metal heads who see the game .

Louie Chevy Thunder
Jul 29, 2012 - 10:52am

@ Chevy Thunder- Big Secret

I'll tell you for an oz. of silver

I think all of us are wondering the same thing. If memory serves me correctly, Turd announced the secret before Sprott announced expanded purchases for his silver fund (PSLV). My bet is that Turd knew Sprott was about to take a load of physical out of circulation.

Any other guesses?

Jul 29, 2012 - 10:59am

Jul 29, 2012 - 11:01am

And this is what I keep hearing, too

That September is "crunch time". As if the world will wait until everyone in Europe and on Wall Street squeezes in one, last August holiday. Something tells me it's not going to turn out that conveniently for them.


I Run Bartertown
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:12am


"couldn't Mitt Romney just issue waivers to everyone?"

​Not everyone. He should revoke all the waivers obama issued.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:20am

Why Should Iran wait?

Just tactically speaking? Everyone's intentions are obvious (ok, Russia/China hazy - maybe that's their reason for waiting). I can't imagine that additional time to build up can work to their advantage. The election shouldn't be viewed as relevant for Iran, IMO.

They could wait until 2016. Err, maybe not:

Jul 29, 2012 - 11:22am

I know IRB

That's what I would do. Too tempting to waive everyone but labor unions and liberals.

Jul 29, 2012 - 11:25am

Off topic

Since the constitutional law scholar who presently occupies the Oval Office has established the precedent, allowing his HHS to issue Obamacare waivers to anyone they wish (mostly people who give them money)...couldn't Mitt Romney just issue waivers to everyone? Every citizen of the United States. It would take care of Obamacare and everyone but the Kool-Aid drinkers agree that Obamacare is bad news for the economy and our liberties. I'm not sure Romney wants to get rid of Obamacare but I am sure he wants to be elected and issuing a statement to that effect would more than likely help his election chances considerably. I know that campaign promises (close Gitmo in a month) are meaningless but if it put him over the top, he might be inclined to stick to it. I'm not wild about Mitt but I think Obama is bat-s**t crazy and he scares the heck out of me. That is the sorry state of affairs in the U.S.A. We are left with two choices: Bad and awful...mostly because of our own sloth and ignorance.

Bobbejaan Excalibur
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:28am

@ Excalibur

Thank you kindly for the welcome-back ... Hopefully I may be able to stick around a while longer this time, but I'm unfortunately still tied up with some family matters which may drag me away from time to time.

How easy with a short view (even a generation or two) to assume things have got to be the way they are.

Too true ... for example :-

A) ... Due to Irish policies & labour shortages in the 1950s, my Dad was legally stopped from leaving his village to go to work in England & not allowed to permanently leave the area without a written "Letter of Permission" from the local Garda (= Police) Sergeant confirming that he was not "required" for local-labour.


B) ... In the 1960s, an Aunt almost ended up in one of those devilish & abusive "Magdelena" religious-concentration camps JUST because she was seen lip-snogging with a local lad by the local priest.



In both cases .... The local populaces mainly just accepted such actions (& official abuses) to be a natural & normal part of national life, and that was just 50-60 years ago (and which were still continued even more recently).

More or less in a similar vein to official abuses against non-whites in 1960s America & apartheid South Afrika.


Be Prepared
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:38am
Be Prepared
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:39am
Be Prepared
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:42am
Be Prepared
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:45am
Peoples Front of Judea
Jul 29, 2012 - 11:53am

Are Traders Mentaly challenged??????

I am quite new to the metal markets, learning everything i know too date off you guys and gals . Just started stacking in the last few weeks .

But i am puzzled????????.. KWN reports that there is massive short positions in the silver market.... STILL!!!!!. Are they expecting a big smash down again ? I may be a novice but sorry i cant see an logic in these actions. Who would still be short and be in their right minds......OR...

Have i totally misunderstood everything you guys have been saying.

Peoples Front of Judea
Jul 29, 2012 - 12:12pm

OH! ALSO....

Can we Please please please have Page and Next buttons at the top of the pages

Pretty please with bells on ..Yes?

thank you

Fired Peoples Front of Judea
Jul 29, 2012 - 12:13pm

Mentally Challenged...

It really depends who is short. If its the small speculators (doctors, dentists, lawyers, day traders), than that is a good thing because they are usually wrong. If its the bullion banks then that could spell trouble. The bullion banks usually take the opposite side of the trade from the small specs.

Jul 29, 2012 - 12:27pm

suz orman and costa rico

suz orman is a lesbian.......not that there is anything necessarily wrong with that, but possibly.......of course she supports obozo.

friend of mine was in san jose costa rico for 8 hours and his throat was slit for his watch......but it was gold and san jose is boderline dangerous.........like the wrong place in any US big city.

in panama another buddy had to wrestle some guy for his surfboard on the way out......they had to hire a guide to keep them outta trouble.

Jul 29, 2012 - 12:32pm

leaked US strike plan on iran

that had to be a plant to upstage romney's isreali visit.

there is no way obozo would sanction that.


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