Welcome to the updated TF Metals Report! We hope you enjoy the new experience.

We've changed payment processors, so any existing renewals will need to be re-subscribed after expiration. You will receive an email when this happens. If you have any questions, send a message through the Contact page.

A Weekend Pass

271
Sat, Jul 28, 2012 - 1:09pm

The charts are so compelling that I felt I had to update the site today. I've also got a special promo for you some come on in..

First of all, the charts. I was alerted to this development yesterday by this terrific piece of analysis from KWN. Tom Fitzpatrick of Citigroup is a competent technician and his analysis here is spot-on.(https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/27_KWN_-_Special_Friday_Gold_%26_Silver_Chart_Mania.html) The metals then closed strongly yesterday and we did, in fact, get bullish outside reversals in both gold and silver. Again, this is not a be-all-end-all indicator of a pending bull rush...but...it's certainly another log for the fire. Note, too, that even on the short-term charts, the metals have broken out of their recent pennants and seem to be setting sights on the horizontal, top-of-range resistance levels of $1640 and $29.

Trader Dan has posted some excellent charts, too. When you have a moment, you should check them out. https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/07/gold-chart-and-comments.html

Yesterday's CoT was very, very interesting...at least in gold. The silver CoT was lifeless but at least it maintains a very bullish posture. The gold CoT is where the action was but, even there, it comes with a caveat. The survey was taken so close to August contract expiration that it was undoubtedly affected by it. Some of this will come out in the wash next week but, for now, the gold CoT was very bullish. Below is a C&P of my comments written shortly after the report was published at 3:30 yesterday. If you want to see the report yourself, here's a link: https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1343417555.php

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on July 27, 2012 - 3:02pm.
MODERATOR

Let's start with silver because it is a non-event, big zero. The Large Specs added 500 net long and The Evil Empire added 300 net short <yawn>. The EE net short ratio remains at an historically low (and extraordinarily bullish) 1.33:1
Gold, on the other hand, was crazy. Now, keep in mind that this report includes a lot of selling and some rolling of the August contract. Therefore, it's a little distorted and some of this distortion will undoubtedly be worked out in next week's report. That said, check this out:
Large Spec gold longs fell by 14,389. That's a lot. The Gold Cartel, though, covered 18,696 short contracts (total at 302,693) and added 3878 new longs (total at 166,448). This is a net change of 22,574. WOW! The new net short ratio for The Gold Cartel is a have-to-be-a-misprint 1.82:1. Again and for perspective, on 8/2/11, three days before The Great Cartel Panic post the S&P downgrade of the U.S., The Gold Cartel was short 442,ooo contracts and long 155,000 for a net short ratio of 2.86:1. This means that since the beginning of The Great Panic, The Gold Cartel has been able to reduce their net short position by 56%!! Simply amazing.
The other item of significance comes from the Small Specs. These are the ultimate outsiders and the consistent victims of Cartel shenanigans. Last week, the Small Specs dumped 1,810 longs (new total 53,970) and added 4,782 new shorts (new total 30,702). Their updated net long ​ratio is just 1.76:1. Again and for perspective, at the peak of the speculation in early April 2011, the small specs in gold were long 75,706 contracts and short 21,747 for a net long ratio of 3.48:1. This means that, since 4/5/11, the small specs in gold have reduced their net long excitement by over 70%!! ​Again, simply amazing.
As you know, the CoTs are not the be-all-end-all of fundamental statistics. They are already 72 hours old and nearly obsolete when we receive them. They are useful, however, in helping us get a general "feel" for bullish or bearish potential. With this in mind, this week's report is simply another signal that the next, major move in the metals will be UP...WAY UP...and not down. Take that to the (bullion) bank.

Like the charts, the CoT must be considered as part of the whole of your analysis. That said, both the gold and silver CoTs are obviously quite bullish in regards to the Cartel net short ratios.

Clearly, the table looks set for the "explosive, hot and historic" summer I've been predicting for some time now. There is just one problem: The FOMC meeting this week. All of this....the CoT, the charts, everything looks bullish and this is almost exactly where we've been on 5 or 6 occasions this year. The metals move up and look, or even begin, to break out and then The Bernank opens his mouth and The Cartels drop the hammer. We could very well be being set up again. I can see it now. Gold rallies near or through 1640 by Tuesday, sucking in a bunch of new spec longs (Spec longs that just sold last week. See above.) Then, The Bernank "disappoints" and gold quickly drops back toward 1600. The new spec longs sell out and even go short. Finally, on Friday with a whole new, fresh batch of spec shorts to squeeze, a horrific NFP number causes the metals to spike back higher and we finish the week about where we began.

Now let me state this clearly: This is not how it has to work. The charts and the CoT look great and we are likely on the verge of a big rally. However, would anyone be surprised if the week plays out almost exactly as I've described above?

Because this is a complicated scenario and because it is such an important week ahead, I decided to make yesterday's TurdTalksMetals podcast available to everyone. As I've mentioned before, it is much easier for me to clearly express myself verbally than through typed text and yesterday's podcast was quite effective (at least I think so). To access the podcast, simply clink the link below. Once you're there, hit the "play" button and the audio will begin.

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

If you like what you hear, please consider joining the community. The feedback from subscribers has been overwhelmingly positive so far, so I think you'll find that it's well worth the money. Additionally, next month we'll begin interacting with some industry "heavyweights". Gonzalo has lined up James Turk to be our first victim guest and the plan is to let members submit some of the questions. After that, I'll bring in Andy, Ned, Jim, James, Dan...you name it. My goal is to get you personal access to expertise you wouldn't otherwise have. It's going to be very informative and...a lot of fun. (And if you've been holding off on joining while we worked out "the bugs", come on in now. The site is safe, secure and fully-operational.)

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend...emphasis on relaxing. Next week promises to be crazy volatile so get ready. Come back Monday with your game face on. See you then!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  271 Comments

Dawg · Jul 29, 2012 - 12:13am

Suze Orman, financial writer for the "Costco Connection" had this great piece of advice.

A woman wrote, among other things, "....we have $10,000 in the bank and $16,000 at home......."

Her first response to several questions posed was, "ARE YOU saying you have $16,000 at home? If that's the case, my first piece of advice is to move it into your federally insured bank account."

She is paid to give out this crap!

Dawg

Fired El Gordo · Jul 29, 2012 - 12:25am

If you have enough Molsons at that hockey game you're a peein' all night.

Louie Doctor J · Jul 29, 2012 - 12:50am

Wait for next weeks smash-down. You will feel better when you buy lower. 

I prefer dimes to bricks, but to each his own. 

If you want a brick, Gainesville (a.k.a. Tulving East) has generics for 2838 and Engelhard for 2878. The also have JM bars for 2878 which in the picture is a poured bar. Not sure what you actually receive will be a poured bar, but we all know that poured is WAY better!

Edit- Someone wrote that they like bars because of bulk and storage- Here is my prayer for this Sunday, "Oh Lord, please let there come a day when I look at my stack and say, "Louie, you don't have any more room for any more $500.00 dime bags!" 

Colonel Angus · Jul 29, 2012 - 1:00am

What subject do you teach?

I do math and finance, and I'm always looking for someone to work with. If you are anywhere near those (or econ, I do econ too) and have some interest in finding a colleague for research, please let me know. There are far too few of us who believe in sound money and are in academia...and if there are other academic lurkers thinking about research in those areas, I'd love to talk.

Louie Doc1800 · Jul 29, 2012 - 1:01am

I do occasionally buy on eBay, but I don't think it is a consistent source for stacking. An eBay seller has to pay about 15% commission and fees on items they sell, so they ultimately pass this on to the buyer. There are other on-line retailers who sell for less than eBay. You can make great purchases on eBay from people who don't really care about the selling price. For instance, "Grandpa died and we found 213 pre-64 quarters in his closet" type sellers. But you are bidding against all the other stackers who know what it is worth, and will bid it up to near spot levels.

Also- I would NEVER buy a 100 oz bar on eBay. I don't have the means to test it to be sure that it is not plugged with lead. There are good buyer protections if you did receive a plugged bar, but how would you know?

Fired Dawg · Jul 29, 2012 - 1:06am

My loathing for that witch has no bounds. That money would be better spent SHORTING the bank, both for personally and for the good of society at large.

Louie Be Prepared · Jul 29, 2012 - 1:07am

Also shows what a crock the green energy con is. If we really want solar to succeed, why are we taxing it 31%? The CONspiracy folks will say that the tax is a result of big oil lobbying, because they don't want people to go off the grid. 

The simple fact is, until there is a way to store electricity, solar will always require the building of 2 systems. The solar system, and then the system that will keep your lights on when it is dark, cloudy, or at peek demand. 

Simple math: Cost of 2 systems > Cost of 1 system. 

· Jul 29, 2012 - 1:09am

The money shot:

"Which then begs the question: if and when the US currency in circulation starts picking up, due to conversion of reserves into dollar bills, and if the current ratio of reserves to currency persists, then the conversion of another $1.6 trillion in reserves into currency (since the Fed will be absolutely unable to withhold the reserve avalanche from converting into real circulating money without raising the IOER to a level which would crush the stock market, directly in opposition of what the Fed's prime and only directive is) would mean, all else equal, total bank deposits would rise from the current $8.4 trillion to $21 trillion.

What the price of a loaf of bread, or a bar of silver, will be at that point, is anyone's guess. Or a wheelbarrow for that matter."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/10-trillion-m2-now-rearview-mirror

Mariposa de Oro Dawg · Jul 29, 2012 - 2:09am

During my 'awakening' I watched SO. I quit watching her show when I heard her tell her viewers that they just HAD to vote for Obama because he would fix everything. She didn't know how he would do it, or what his plan was, just that he would. I knew then that she was an idiot shill. I should thank her for that because that's when I turned to the alternative media and fully awakened.

Lumpy · Jul 29, 2012 - 2:13am

The Banking System we live under, and the Bankers, are the guardians of civilization.

If the Banking System collapses then civilization as we know it collapses.

If you want to live outside of the Banking System you are either homeless, or you have never had a bank account or paid income tax. A criminal to be hunted down by the police or the IRS. Or.....maybe a prepper who is resourceful enough to break the chains of the Banking System and live "off grid", as long as you can pay your property tax.

Gold and Silver can no longer be used as money globally. Too many people. Not enough gold and silver. The value of gold and silver would be too great to be used in day to day transactions. 

Gold and Silver will always be used as money and a store of wealth, but only for the few lucky enough to have it when the guardians of civilization fail. When their Banking System temporarily collapses, like it always does, gold and silver will always be mommies apron for mankind to run to until the guardians can put together a NEW Banking System to enslave us. A new civilization to live in.

The Presidents come and go, but the Banking System stays. The corruption stays. The different rules for the masses stay. The barefaced, outrageous, and offensive lying will stay. The BS STAYS!

The guardians of civilization. I almost got sick after I typed that, but in a sad way it is true.

Be one of the lucky few holding onto mommies apron when the guardians fail again.  When you see Gold and Silver running up 10% plus a day for a few days.........It's over.

UraniumSprings · Jul 29, 2012 - 2:16am
SRSrocco posted a few charts like this a couple months ago. At the time, we were told the acc / dist divergence from price probably signified a strong future correction (to the upside, to bring price back in line with the accumulation). Does this become more true the longer the divergence exists? Or do we need to start looking for some other interpretation? As you can see, the trend has continued: untitled.jpg
maravich44 · Jul 29, 2012 - 2:19am
ivars · Jul 29, 2012 - 2:37am

I am looking at next week plus some physical Not much time left to buy at these prices. Maybe FED will take them down a bit. I have topped the account with what i can risk and now wait for final expansion of base position before moving into permanent expansion mode by moving up stops. Price may be higher than last lows, but can not risk all.

Counterfiat · Jul 29, 2012 - 2:51am

@El Gordo

Texas Rangers in our Australian history books taste like chicken. Look under 'Long Pork' in the BBQ index. Those little star badges are for dipping sauce.

El Gordo QE to infinity · Jul 29, 2012 - 5:23am

Yes, we do have dragons in Texas too.

https://texasdragonlab.com/

GoldMania3000 · Jul 29, 2012 - 5:51am
THE SILVER BOMB: An Opportunity That Will Never Happen Again [Part 1 of 2]
GoldMania3000 · Jul 29, 2012 - 6:08am
THE SILVER BOMB: Collapse is Happening NOW... $500+ Silver IS Coming [Part 2]
Hold over · Jul 29, 2012 - 6:39am

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a widely anticipated speech, reiterated that the central bank will "act as needed" to keep the credit crisis from spreading but will not bail out investors who made poor decisions.

https://www.cnbc.com/id/20514207/

The Fed’s next policy meeting, FOMC is July 31 and August 1.
There is no scheduled Bernanke press conference after.

Jackson Hole, Wyoming, central banker symposium – August 31. Hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Fed policy meeting Sept. 12 and 13, followed by Mr. Bernanke’s next news conference.

https://financialmarketstrading.wordpress.com/2012/07/22/jackson-hole-wyoming-central-banker-symposium-august-31-2012/

Gold silver up, front running the bernake?? The Turd meisters info could be good here.

Job #s due again in Sept . The pressure is on Bernanke.

Hold over · Jul 29, 2012 - 6:52am

""Gold and Silver can no longer be used as money globally. Too many people. Not enough gold and silver. The value of gold and silver would be too great to be used in day to day transactions. ""

I say nonsense,Gold would have to be re-pegged to much higher # (The amount of money in circulation divided by the amount of gold ) say 10,000 an oz. there is plenty of silver to use on daily basis and again it would have to be re-pegged at a higher #Brand new minted 25 50 and 100 dollar silver coins , would probably work . The problem with this is that the bankers fiat cash would lose strength.

Remember we didnt go off the gold standard because there wasnt enough gold and silver.

Silver Alert · Jul 29, 2012 - 7:10am

Consider that if(when) silver goes to $500 what it will be worth. If federal fiats are still in use it will trigger certain reporting requirements. Of course, if you are using 500 oz's to buy a house than it doesn't matter what form it's in. Except that it might...

As the price of silver gets higher, the likelyhood of running across fake silver items will also increase greatly. It is harder to fake/adulter small bars than it is large bars and even more so for coins. If a significant percentage of 100 & 1000 oz bars on the market had even just a 10% plug (difficult to find w/ drilling) buyers may request any bar be melted and assayed or whatever the test du jour is at the time. 

Silver Alert Hold over · Jul 29, 2012 - 7:33am

there is plenty of silver to use on daily basis and again it would have to be re-pegged

I've read that there is maybe 1/6 to 1/20 oz of silver per person available for coinage. That is like everyone gets a mercury dime unless you make really teeny, tiny easy to lose coins instead.

Of course, there are other options. We could have penny sized copper coins alloyed w/ 10%, 20%, 30%, etc of silver for different denominations. And larger coins for even higher denominations. There could be plastic coins with an embedded silver flake the size of which determines it's value. Or we could stick with paper(linen) money but that has a silver or gold fiber sewn into it to give it "real" value.

· Jul 29, 2012 - 7:52am

100 oz it is! I have a house to pay off. 

Man I hate it when you run out of space to store your bags of dimes and other junk silver--How annoying! Makes you just want to go back to fiat.

I have also discovered that when the canoe tips over, I have always been able to lunge and grab a few of the rounds before they are out of reach. The bars go down too quickly. 

I talked with another farmer yesterday. Sounds like he is wiped out. He did not insure his crop and he is hoping the Feds will declare a disaster area in the region and provide funding.

Be Prepared · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:23am

Hugo Salinas Price, although talking his book, has proposed an easy solution for the re-introduction of silver money back into circulation. He outlines the following:

(1) Coins would be minted which would state the amount of silver contained within along with the purity. The coins would NOT have a denomination stated on the coin.

(2) The U.S. Treasury would state the value of the coins, on a daily basis, based upon the current spot market of silver. For example, a 1 oz. coin with 99.999% purity would start at a $30 Dollar value. If silver goes up to $35, the coin is adjusted automatically to be a $35 Dollar coin. If silver goes down to $30, the coin's value stays at $35.

Here's a video of Max Keiser and Hugo Price..

Hugo Price and Max Keiser can save Greece, edited for English

I am not sure that this idea would work because it induces a volatility of value into the monetary system. Ideally, money should be stable over a longer period of time in order to be an effective monetary unit.

I think a more effective way would be to go back to the type of silver coinage we had before except at higher values with copper coins becoming the lower value coinage. The silver in the coins would be inserted at double the current market spot value to ensure that the coin isn't melted back into raw metal. So for example... a $10 silver coin would only have $5 worth of silver... the difference would be the Seigniorage. The coin would then be stable enough to go into circulation and act as money rather than a commodity. The down side to this idea, of course, is that, if the government is not stable or continues with debt spending, the spot market could exceed the Seigniorage and the coins would quickly disappear from circulation. Sound money does require a sound government. :-)

Lumpy · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:25am

If we did use $25 - $100 silver coins, could you imagine how much you could buy with those coins. You would probably be able to buy 4 loaves of bread for a $1.00

What do you use for those small $1.00 transactions? Silver Alert has some interesting ideas.

By introducing hard money back into the economy it would cause an immediate deflationary effect due to "real" money now being in circulation. 

That's how I see it. We have to have a collapse of the current system first.

Bobbejaan · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:30am
Quote:
With the metals stealthily trending higher today, I thought it would be a good time to tackle some fears that the precious metals community has of a pending market collapse. The fear is that, like in 2008, as the banking crisis gripped the markets, the precious metals will collapse.

...

But, this time could be different, in terms of paper, for the metals. Many people are waiting and worried about this precious metals price collapse amid a global selloff. But, it might not happen. Ever. Discussions are ongoing regarding making gold a tier 1 asset. Tier 1 capital is the ultimate measure that regulators use to gauge a bank’s financial strength.

...

Institutions and investors who hold gold, if it becomes a tier 1 asset, will not need to sell gold to raise cash and other tier 1 assets. Instead, institutional gold will be seen by regulators as a measure of the institutions strength. So, as gold, silver, platinum and palladium trend quietly higher, don’t put too much emphasis on the probability of a future, general market collapse creating a massive dip in metals. A possible drought in physical supply aside, it could end-up being the case that, as confidence plummets in fiat cash, that gold – with its new tier 1 reputation – could escape the downside volatility that a major selloff has in the past signaled.

REST OF THE ARTICLE :-

https://silvervigilante.com/gold-tier-1-no-selling-pressure-on-price-ami...

Bobbejaan · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:34am
Quote:
Seventeen months after the earthquake and tsunami that destroyed the Tokyo Electric Power Company’s six–reactor complex at its Fukushima Daiichi, discussions continue about the possible effects of the radiation “dusting” the prefecture’s inhabitants received, and their consequences.

Far outside most media coverage, 2012 is shaping up to be the media battleground between the massed proponents of the ongoing ‘safety’ of nuclear power, as opposed to a motley coalition of environmentalists, renegade nuclear scientists and anti-nuclear opponents, largely bereft of media contact.

All sides in the debate are playing for massive stakes, with the Japanese government and the nuclear industry broadly indicating the issue is under control. Accordingly, every issue from the amount of radiation released to the long term health consequences of the Fukushima disaster are subject to acrimonious debate.

That said, there is an involuntary irradiated “test” Fukushima group monitored since March 2011 displaying disturbing health abnormalities that may ultimately decide the debate, should the global media report it, forcing governments to debate its consequences.

The children of Fukushima.

REST OF THE ARTICLE :-

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-fukushima-local-children-unwit...

Be Prepared · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:35am

Before the big run up a few years ago, I happened across an old 100 oz. bar with a unique look and maker, but I painted it black and used it a a wheel chock. Eventually, it grew legs and decided to hitchhike across this beautiful country. I received a letter from it a while back saying that it had made friends in San Francisco with others like him called Morgan and Peace. I replied that I wished him well and warned him to stay away from any black cast iron pots. Luckily, I thought I still had some 10 oz. bars, but the kids had used them as skipping stones and, alas, they met their watery end. :-)

El Gordo · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:37am

We have to have a collapse of the current system first.

I don't think we have to worry about doing that - our politicians are hard at work to accomplish that task without any input at all from us.

Lumpy · Jul 29, 2012 - 8:46am

I agree with you 100%. 

Bobbejaan · Jul 29, 2012 - 9:10am

Dominic Frisby said :-

A.J.P. Taylor is regarded by many as the finest British historian of the 20th Century. His most celebrated book was probably English History, 1914-1945. It was the final volume in The Oxford History of England chronicles and outsold all the others combined. My father recently drew my attention to its opening paragraphs. I think they’re great – and here they are:

Quote:
Until August 1914 a sensible, law-abiding Englishman could pass through life and hardly notice the existence of the state, beyond the post office and the policeman. He could live where he liked and as he liked. He had no official number or identity card. He could travel abroad or leave his country for ever without a passport or any sort of official permission. He could exchange his money for any other currency without restriction or limit. He could buy goods from any country in the world on the same terms as he bought goods at home. For that matter, a foreigner could spend his life in this country without permit and without informing the police. Unlike the countries of the European continent, the state did not require its citizens to perform military service. An Englishman could enlist, if he chose, in the regular army, the navy, or the territorials. He could also ignore, if he chose, the demands of national defence. Substantial householders were occasionally called on for jury service. Otherwise, only those helped the state, who wished to do so. The Englishman paid taxes on a modest scale: nearly £200 million in 1913-14, or rather less than 8 per cent. of the national income. The state intervened to prevent the citizen from eating adulterated food or contracting certain infectious diseases. It imposed safety rules in factories, and prevented women, and adult males in some industries, from working excessive hours. The state saw to it that children received education up to the age of 13. Since 1 January 1909, it provided a meagre pension for the needy over the age of 70. Since 1911, it helped to insure certain classes of workers against sickness and unemployment. This tendency towards more state action was increasing. Expenditure on the social services had roughly doubled since the Liberals took office in 1905. Still, broadly speaking, the state acted only to help those who could not help themselves. It left the adult citizen alone.


All this was changed by the impact of the Great War. ...

REST OF THE ARTICLE :-

https://dominicfrisby.com/news/a-j-p-taylor-a-libertarian

.

.

PS ..... I didn't post this as a "good old days" type rant .......... More as a general "How Governments/TPTB (inc USA, etc) use a crisis to expand their control over the Citizens" observation.

.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 10/29

10/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
10/31 8:30 ET Employment Cost Index
11/1 8:30 ET Productivity
11/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
11/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/2 8:30 ET Balance of Trade
11/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Recent Comments

this ...
by Turd Ferguson, 1 min 29 sec ago
by onesong, 15 min 47 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 16 min 1 sec ago
by Libero, 56 min 5 sec ago
by AGXIIK, 1 hour 4 min ago
by Joseph Warren, 1 hour 46 min ago