Wrapping Up

364
Sat, Jul 21, 2012 - 12:23pm

The Turd is wrapping up his relaxation extravaganza this weekend and he'll be back at his post bright and early on Monday. Until then, here's some stuff for the weekend.

First of all, some charts. Let's start with the metals. Both have flat-lined, which is interesting because a flat-line usually precedes some type of dramatic move, either up or down. We see this sometimes on the short-term charts. We rarely see this play out over days on the hourly charts but here we are. My personal feeling is that we are very close to a significant break OUT and UP. We'll go into more detail on this on Monday.

And you should probably listen to this:

EXCLUSIVE- Bill Murphy's London Source: "Big Gold & Silver Moves Coming in August"

And the grains are, quite literally, ON FIRE. Though they are susceptible to a sharp pullback here, the forecast isn't getting any better. And it's still July. Yikes. Here's the latest forecast for Kansas City, Missouri. Right in the middle of corn and soybean country.

And here are your weekly charts showing new all-time highs in both corn and beans. The DAG, which we first discussed here a few weeks ago near $9, is closing in on $15, too.

The latest CoT was kind of a bummer. For the reporting week, gold rose $9 and silver rose 44c. In the face of that, The Gold Cartel added over 6000 new net shorts and The Evil Empire added just over 1000 new net short in silver. Not a disaster but not real encouraging, either. The only positive in the report is in the LargeSpecShortSheep category for silver where the LSSS added another 1,123 gross shorts. This brings their total up to over 20,000 at 20,775 and lowers the LargeSpec net long ratio to just 1.37:1. Again, for perspective, on 4/5/11, the LargeSpec net long ratio was 4.04:1 based upon 48,890 longs and just 12,105 shorts.

Three items of reading material for you. First, this interesting piece from John Aziz. It's worth considering. https://azizonomics.com/2012/07/21/why-is-the-fed-not-printing-like-crazy/

Next, Detlev Schlichter has written another excellent article: https://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/07/happy-interventionists-the-economists-attack-on-your-property/

And, finally, some interesting perspective from KWN's "London Trader". Note that there are no price targets or forecasts. Just a simple and concise analysis of demand fundamentals. https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/20_London_Trader_-_The_LBMA_Gold_Price_Fixing_Scheme_Is_Over.html

OK, that's all for now. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend and I look forward to getting back to "business as usual" on Monday.

TF

p.s. When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/conspiracy-theories. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  364 Comments


Jul 22, 2012 - 7:46am

Just some interesting background on Richie Rich

and a cool link - these guys have put together a collection of the early (and best) Richie Rich comics, and at the Amazon link you can read the first 6 page comic - in which Richie Rich sneaks out of his mansion to play baseball and ends up defeating the bully who comes to steal the equipment:

When Richie Rich was cool JERRY BECK September 7, 2007 10:19 am

.

I know it’s hard to believe, but Richie Rich was a cool dude once.

Once upon a time the character, originally created by Harvey Comics in 1952 as a companion feature in Little Dot, actually had a personality, clever stories and appealing comic art chiefly by animator Steve Muffatti, and cartoonists Warren Kremer and Ernie Colon.

Leslie Cabarga and I spent the summer mining the Harvey Comics vaults and cherry-picked the best of the original Richie Rich comics of the 50s and 60s for a new trade paperback volume due out next month. This is the second of several high quality Harvey Comics reprint books we are compiling for Dark Horse.

If you’ve only been exposed to the latter spin-off comic books of the 1970s and 80s, the cheap animated TV shows or that Macaulay Culkin movie, I urge you to give this volume a look. Amazon has just put our Richie Rich book up for pre-order and has posted the the first several pages, including the entire first six-page Richie story from Little Dot #1 (click the Search Inside: Amazon Online Reader option).



Sisyphus
Jul 22, 2012 - 7:48am

'Peak gold' and miners

Thanks to SRSrocco for the update on miners, and others for commenting.

Just a sorta Mining Economics 101 question that I'm confused about. If (for the sake of argument) we have hit 'peak gold', does that help or hurt the miners on balance?

OTOneH, gold price zooms on expectations of increased scarcity, and to help keep gold mining in business.

OTOtherH, costs escalate fast and profits are capped or reduced.

Over the last 5 years, GLD up 130%, GDX up 0%. Is this already happening, and are those commentators wrong when they say that the miners are undervalued and will soon skyrocket?

Thanks in advance for any clues.

Louie Senseosensei
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:05am

@ Senseosensei- geo-engineering

Hey everybody- Senseosensei is going to start a new forum thread where everyone can discuss geo-engineering!

Be sure to let us know when the first post and links are up!

Senseosensei- Please drop by Main St. and let us know every time you make a new post.

pbfurn Louie
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:14am

@Louie

That is wonderful news! Thank you for sharing it.

He is, obviously, very unhappy with the most Turdites intellectual curiosity level---among other things.

Senseosensei
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:16am

Dear Louie

I asked Turd but several people including you felt the need to reply. Many thanks for that (lol).

The forum post is already there and called https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/haarp/52

A whooping 44 replies and 5000 views so far.

I thought this community was about not being afraid to take a stance, not being afraid to properly debate, and about people thinking beyond mainstream fairytales.

And i still hope and think this site is not about cheap politics, weighing in who you like or dislike, or silencing people because their opinion is not like yours.

The prove is in eating the pudding.

If you think i am a nuisance and someone you would not drink a pint with, battle me with arguments that my facts suck, rather than with mud throwing.

Terp
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:37am

Gold Chart

Hi all,

New to posting here. This is a graph from an article on Financial Sense titled Global QE is Coming. I thought it was interesting and very bullish looking for Gold (biased opinion, of course). The article is mostly stuff you guys already know, but a quick read too.

https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/global-qe-coming-let-gold-mania-begin

I also think it's interesting on this chart that gold seems to hover a bit just about every $200. Right before $800, $1000, $1200, $1400 (sort of) and now it's right below $1600. In fact around every $100 mark, but I guess that's psychological resistance mostly?

I'm amateur, not a tech analyst by any means! What do you guys think of the chart? I think Turd's OUT and UP bullish call will prove correct!

I'll try to link it here:

Admiral Ag Bar
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:39am

Senseo

Come on man... All you need to do is respect Turd's wishes ON HIS OWN WEBSITE. Simple as that. You getting worked up about everyone ignoring the 'facts' of Geo-engineering makes you seem like a zealot and hurts your ability to influence folks to hear your side of the issue.

When the mods reprimand you for keep harping (pun intended) on this issue when you have been politely asked, you will scream censorship - when it is clearly not the case. Let it go. Respect Turd's wishes, or go somewhere else.

I hope you stay and contribute.

El Gordo
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:40am

I take a stand

Unfortunately for me, I am unable to influence the markets in any substantive manner, thus I am required to anticipate the market and move my chess pieces accordingly. I am always on defense because my stack is not large enough to play with the big boys. Therefore, the stand I take today might change tomorrow depending upon outside events. I believe that is where most of us are, but I don't know that for a fact - hell the Whale may be posting here for all I know. Anyway, my "stand" is stay flexible. In the long run, I cannot see how more debt is a solution to anything unless your objective is to destroy the currency, so I am playing my cards assuming that the be the case right now. After the elections, there may be some moderation, or things may go to hell overnight - who knows, but all I can do is try to be reasonably prepared to deal with circumstances as they occur.

Down here on the gulf coast, we know how quickly grocery shelves can empty and how quickly gas stations can run dry due to the frequent hurricane scares that we experience. Should some other calamity occur, I'm sure the results would be similar. The first few days following a hurricane, everyone is pitching in and helping their neighbor, but if an event occurred which appeared to be a long term catastrophe, things could change in short order. As a side note, following Ike, people were helping people all over the place. FEMA was down here handing out food and ice, but the only takers were the usual suspects who were takers to start with, and frankly they spent a lot of money and accomplished very little, once again proving that we are responsible for ourselves, but that's another story. In short, pray for the best and prepare for the worst.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:51am

Michael Scheuer - Fmr. CIA bin Laden Unit Chief

"The question is ultimately how do you defend the United States. The problem for the US military and for the people generally is that their leaders from both parties are out in the Muslim world causing wars....It's odd in a sense that the clash of civilizations is really being waged by the United States...Mrs. Clinton, Ambassador Rice, _resident Obama, Lindsay Graham and John McCain... ready to see Marines die so that Mrs. Mohammed can vote. Until that nonsense stops, we are creating wars."

Video unavailable

Jul 22, 2012 - 8:55am

Terp re first post and cool chart

Nice to have you aboard.

That is a very cool chart - I had not seen the central bank holdings compared to the price of gold. Look how the reserves shot up when the price of gold fell in 2008. And now we see a similar divergence. That does look really bullish, assuming the price will catch up to the holdings.

Maximillion
Jul 22, 2012 - 8:57am

Mud throwing

IMO of course things like haarp exist and of course TPTB can control the weather should they so wish. Coincidence? The Olympics start in the UK next weekend, and we've had the most continuous rain on record this summer to date. Yet now it's changed to perfect summer weather. The point is regardless of who controls what, what can you actually do about it, and what's the point therefore in mudslinging? Solution = If you just want to bicker, you're wasting screenspace, so please just use the ignore button instead, and that way the rest of us get condensed, contrasting, evidence supported views, on which to form our own opinions. Great to see the haarp things got its own page, chill everyone, off out to enjoy the sun now (and collect a bit of phiz:))

proformatrillionaire
Jul 22, 2012 - 9:06am

@rckymtn

Why would anybody make the comment that the London trader has been "100%' correct? Have you not checked the price of an ounce of gold recently? Last I checked it was $ 1,585. As much as I love this site please take the information you read here with the proper perspective. There is not one person or group here that has a better track record with metals than the best winning percentage team in major league baseball. For your information that percentage is 60.6%.

Bollocks
Jul 22, 2012 - 9:09am

Tax havens: Super-rich 'hiding' at least $21tn

"A global super-rich elite had at least $21 trillion (£13tn) hidden in secret tax havens by the end of 2010, according to a major study. The figure is equivalent to the size of the US and Japanese economies combined. The Price of Offshore Revisited was written by James Henry, a former chief economist at the consultancy McKinsey, and commissioned by the Tax Justice Network. He said $21tn is a conservative figure and the true scale could be $32tn. A trillion is 1,000 billion. Mr Henry used data from the Bank of International Settlements, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and national governments. His study deals only with financial wealth deposited in bank and investment accounts, and not other assets such as property and yachts. The report comes amid growing public and political concern about tax avoidance and evasion. Some authorities, including in Germany, have even paid for information on alleged tax evaders stolen from banks. The group that commissioned the report, Tax Justice Network, campaigns against tax havens. Mr Henry said that the super-rich move money around the globe through an "industrious bevy of professional enablers in private banking, legal, accounting and investment industries. "The lost tax revenues implied by our estimates is huge. It is large enough to make a significant difference to the finances of many countries." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18944097

Be Prepared
Jul 22, 2012 - 9:25am

Interview with David Stockman

An interview with David Stockman, dated July 18th.... I always find his frank approach to things refreshing. If you haven't listened to an interview with him before.. this would be a great one to spend a little time on...

David Stockman - Conversations with Casey
Gramp
Jul 22, 2012 - 9:45am

Good listen Over @ The "Keiser Report"

Max certainly has his own style of info presentation!

What caught my ear was around 10:50 mark in the point Max makes about Derivatives controlling the Markets.

Then he has Rickards on as a guest just after that.

"Plan beats no plan."

Keiser Report: Alien Bankers, Leave Earth Alone! (E316)

Wow... "The 50 year old probably doesn't want to take a pay cut, but the 25 year old will take the job."

"Combination of German Technology, Russian and Chinese Capital, and Youth labor, turning it (Greece) into a Singapore on the Mediterranean."


Jul 22, 2012 - 9:47am

drought troubles

Those seeking to make some fiat (to convert to PMs of course) might consider trading grains, as Turd has been subtly suggesting (my opinion--Turd didn't say that) .

This just in:

As of July 16, USDA lowered the corn ranked good or excellent to 31%, a 9% drop from last week and a 35% decline from last year at the same time. Sixteen percent of the crop is very poor, 22% poor and 31% fair. A recent Farm Journal Pulse, a text message poll of farmers and ranchers, asked farmer to rank the health of their corn crop. More than 2,000 replied with the following results. Condition of the corn crop as of July 18:

  • Excellent: 6%
  • Good: 18%
  • Fair: 33%
  • Poor: 44%

I hate to prosper on another's pain, but better us than the banksters. At least we'll be likely to help others. But I have a question. Are grains manipulated like metals? Does anyone have an arguable view on this? My intuition and logic tell me that the manipulation would be much less and that TA combined with fundamentals actually still works as a trading strategy.

Edit: click to read in a new window

Gramp
Jul 22, 2012 - 9:56am

"The Son Of TARP!!"

Just finishing listening to that Interview w/ Rickards on the Keiser report i just posted.

Great explanation of LIBOR, and much more.

Katie Rose
Jul 22, 2012 - 10:32am

Louie

Your statement:

All those baby boomers, now receive their monthly suckle from the government.

tells far more about you than your little pea brain will ever know.

For the record, I was self employed my entire life. As such, I was liable to SS for 15% of my net earnings every year. That was on top of State Income Tax, Federal Income Tax, property tax(s), sales tax, gasoline taxes, phone taxes, and it goes on and on.

I didn't have any illegitimate children. Never got into trouble with the law. Just paid and paid and paid.

The SS Trust Fund was awash with money until Congress raided it to "balance the budget". I've read that if a private company had stolen the retirement funds of their employees the way Congress stole ours, they would all be in jail. (Ha! the big guys don't go to jail. Just people like you and me...)

There were lots of things I would have loved to have done; lots of vacations I never got to take; lots of investments that never happened because of the big sucking sound of Gov on my finances.

SS is in trouble because Congress used the funds to balance their wasteful budgets.

And many of us Baby Boomers would love to be working right now, but my industry (real estate) was decimated by crooked banks and mortgage companies. I have so many friends who were laid off in other industries. If you are in your late 50's or in your 60's the job market is closed to you. Period.

Magpie
Jul 22, 2012 - 10:33am

@Dr. Jerome

Grains can't be manipulated by the government. Unless they have chemtrails and HAARP. And Monsanto, Agenda 21, legislation implemented to control ownership of all the water in the U.S., and laws restricting who can grow what via the use of subsidies. "They" are turning of our water for farmers and ranchers in our town....but the town 30 miles down the road gets to keep their irrigation water. Go ask the farmers in central CA what happened when "they" turned off the water there. A FIST, not a finger, in every pie.

opticsguy
Jul 22, 2012 - 10:40am

I just flew from Dallas to Chicago at about 5000 ft.

I stopped for fuel in Lebanon, MO (NE of Springfield). Everything was brown there. The only green from the air were the trees.

From there to NW Indiana I flew over 350 miles of farmland. The soybean fields were green, but the corn looked like it was a foot tall (you can see soil between the rows). Missouri looked worse than Illinois, even the stockponds there were dry.

In the floodplain along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers, I saw better corn (irrigation?). These guys are going to make good money at $8/bbu.

Nana
Jul 22, 2012 - 10:55am

Farmers

We know a few of the local farmers and they were told by the EPA a few years back they could no longer pull water out of the Mississippi river for their crops even thou their property abuts the river.

Also a friend in Illinois said their farmers were told they could get federal aid for burnt fields but if they picked up any corn on the ground and fed it to their livestock they would not be able to get the aid. The farmers have to leave what little corn is there to rot.

Nana
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:00am

Correction

Sorry meant to say Merrimac River not Mississippi River.

tmosley Senseosensei
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:00am

Senseosensei:  You are

Senseosensei: You are conflating three different subject into one, and then claiming that your utter laziness with regards to not posting a thread about CHEMTRAILS, which you only later described as GEOENGINEERING, which you now claim is covered under HAARP is some sort of failing of Turd's. Man the fuck up and post a thread. Link to it in the main thread if you want to, but stop your damn whining.

billwilson
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:02am

Gold in Euros - stealth breakout building

1 year chart (ignore the weird dips in the chart)

5 year chart

opticsguy Nana
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:04am

Farmers

Chairman Mao would have a field day with this. Dedicate 40% of your farmland for ethanol at negative EROI, then steal seed money from the farmers (MF Global), keep them from hedging, then ensure that what does grow gets plowed under or blows away.

What's next? Paying farmers to scrap their tractors?

Senseosensei
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:18am

Dear Tmosley

It happens to be the same thing (as in, totally inter-connected). If you would have read only one link of mine you would have known and your post would not have been needed.

Have a nice day.

Terp
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:23am

Grains

I agree the grains are still catching up to their true price. I was in a few mini contracts, but got out last week. I got scared. Too high too fast, and “they” are talking about a blow-off top or a decent correction. I’ll probably get back in if that happens. In my opinion this drought is worse than most people have accepted.

But I used the scratch I made on the grains to get into two DEC micro golds because of the bullish talk here and the (maybe) bullish chart I posted on the previous page. I also got a mini oil. All have pretty close Stops because I’m a chicken (I am not starting a chicken topic here!)

A decent grains site is https://www.farmfutures.com . I check that and Turd every day. I’m proud to be in this community with you guys!

BTW - the Feeder Cattle will have to catch up to the grains one of these days. "They" are saying the price is low right now because nobody is BBQing in this heat. Might keep an eye on the cows.

exiledbear
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:26am

The big thing to take away from the long charts on gold

Notice the triangular nature of the correction. Also notice how the triangle has had 5 legs on it so far.

I'm not a big fan of EWT (mainly because I think Prechter is full of shit), but I do recall that a triangle in EWT always contains 5 legs and then it's done.

Which would mean that we're out of the correction (and have been so for a few weeks now) but it's not "obvious" that we are. And it never is obvious. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom. Never seen it happen.

What I have seen is that you can only really see a bottom looking back several weeks after it has passed.

If this is all they can do - a 1 year triangle, and not actually keep gold at a flatline like they did back in the '60s, just hold on and be patient.

Nana
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:27am

Total Control

From 2011, the feds wanted farmers to have a CDL to drive farm equipment.

https://transportationnation.org/2011/07/27/federal-legislation-could-fo...

Federal Legislation Could Force Farmers To Get a Commercial Driver’s License

A federal proposal to require that farmers have a commercial driver’s license (CDL) before they can drive their tractors or other farm equipment on a public road is causing Montana farmers to say, whoa.....

As Had Enough said:

Psst…. the reason behind this is more federal control of your life. Imagine the DOT.SWAT team coming on to your farm and demanding to see your log book… Oh it is not up to date, you say… then seizure, your crops rot and you find yourself explaining yourself and how you farm to a…..
tmosley Senseosensei
Jul 22, 2012 - 11:29am

HAARP is the same thing as

HAARP is the same thing as chemtrails? Then start a thread about that, and stop your god damn whining.

If I see one more post from you on the subject without a link to a new thread, you are gong on my ignore list.

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