Santa Tried To Warn Us

Thu, Jul 12, 2012 - 10:12am

As we watch the metals get savagely beaten this morning, I'm reminded of the warning that Santa posted last Friday and again yesterday. The Cartel is trying again to take down paper price. Will they succeed? Maybe...

Here are the two main components of his post. Remember, this was first posted last Friday so when he says "next week", he's talking about now:

"Next week is the war between manipulation of gold by the West, and appetite for buying gold in the East, both from friendlies and enemies. Anyone that does not see today’s gold market as a rig is blind or brain dead. There is a full blown crisis in Western world banking today, right here and now. There is a full blown crisis in sovereign debt of some weaker nations as in a very short while certain government will be out of money. The Eurosnobs hate each other which does not make for a fast reconciliation of a crisis."

"Next week will be the time the cartel tries to break the gold price again. They have failed seven times, and will fail on the 8th. Gold is going to $3500 and above. All the lying and conniving only means the price will go higher. Just as Morgan’s whale could not fight the market, the cartel cannot fight gold as we have a flight away from all fiat currencies."

So, there you go. As you know I, too, have been concerned about a short-duration, Cartel-inspired plunge that would attempt to take out the plethora of sell stops below 1525 and 26. Can they pull this off? You know they want to. Can they? That is the question. Global physical demand remains extraordinarily strong ( so driving down paper price will only increase the flow out of the LBMA member vaults. We'll justhave to see how this battle plays out.
For today's trip into the archives I offer you this: Written on 12/19/10, I still look back upon it as one of my favorites. Here's the summary paragraph:

"The end of US hegemony is near and with it, the end of the US dollar as "world reserve currency". This catastrophe and all in entails could have been avoided with responsible leadership and an educated/involved populace. However, selfishly, we in the US decided it was best to pursue a plan where we foolishly thought our recklessness was beneficial. This attitude was best summarized by republocrat and Keynesian legend, John Connally, who, as the coin was dropped in 1973, told the world that "the dollar is our currency but it is your problem". Sadly, we allowed Mr. Connally to be prescient for almost 40 years but the world is about to turn the tables. Soon...very soon...the coin will finally reach the narrow end of the funnel and the bottom will simply drop out. What happens next will not be fun and games."

​OK, that's all for now. I've got a full day of meetings ahead of me but I'll be watching this closely and I'll certainly update the blog if needed. Hang in there and be patient.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 12, 2012 - 1:00pm

Yet Another Reason ^

Okay, here goes another reason not followed in the MSM or by metals bugs as to why silver and gold will go up and not come back down. At least not in the lifetimes of most of us.

Sure, we've all heard the reasons - manipulation w/criminal intent, physical tonnages being pulled out of exchanges, LIBOR, budget deficits, hypothecation/rehypothecation and double counting of paper metal, printing presses gone wild, SWIFT moves, oil & war with a splash of Jewish vinegar, BRIC buying metals and selling UST & USB's, the Rothschilds, Morgans, Rockefellers, and other dynastic wealthy fanilies with their numb nut plans for world domination, the world will end in 2012 like it was supposed to in 2000, other assorted criminal acts, and prophecy.

Back to earth. How many of you (Californians included) have ever heard of the vast wealth kept off the books and out of sight of virtually every citizen in the U.S.?

That many? Well just in California alone, the CAFR (that's the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report) shows an excess of funds upwards of 600B. That's with a capital B. As in "oh Brother, you mean excess Billions?" And the bastards we call politicians want to tax us to death to keep up the budget charade? Bankers and politicians - I'd rather trust my local used car salesman or drug dealer. At least they're upfront about ripping you off.

So, what do you think will happen when this vast amount of nationwide off the books funds worms it's way onto the books? I'm glad I won't have to explain that source of funds to Joe Sixpack. BTW, all the kept hidden from public view revenue sources makes personal income taxes obsolete. O-B-S-O-L-E-T-E! just like the crooked political class will soon be.

Aside from all the lawsuits for a generation or more and the ensuing outrage and riots when the reality of these funds seeps into the public conciousness, this should surely be one of, if not the, number one reason for silver and gold to rise and bring balance to the system.

Did Santa know about this? He's been kinda cryptic lately. And would bringing these funds onto the books constitute an increase in the money supply?

A great interview at the following link. Click to listen, Right click to Save As;

For more understanding and information, go to;

All it will take is one town in one county in one state and this snowball is rolling fast if it isn't already.

<sarc/never off>

Big Buffalo
Jul 12, 2012 - 1:00pm

If it is Sprott...

moving Silver, he needs to buy another batch...we're not out of the woods yet.

Hoping to learn
Jul 12, 2012 - 1:01pm

60th yeah baby

Sorry assatack

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:01pm


Maybe he's already doing his buying or is done with it.

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:02pm

rest of the day

Well if the normal trading patterns hold we are going to have another test of the lows later today.

Miners usually lead gold .. and today refused to follow gold higher in its morning spike. Then we have the Access session where gold has gotten hit the last two days. So ... odds say we get hit again.

For once I would love to see gold actually lead ... it might indicate that we could be escaping the clutches of the cartel/CRIMEX/mindless-algos.

Interesting chart target is 1578 at 2 pm today.

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:03pm

Strange FUBM

You seldom see a PM surge just a few minutes prior to 30Y auction

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:07pm


Thanks Turd, Santa said there would be days like this! Time to take a nap

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:15pm

boys and girls...

...listen to today's keiser report, especially the second-half interview...

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:21pm

Volume TELL in SLV...

Check out some volume stats on the SLV compared to historical. The tell seems to be to me that there are no longs to flush out down here, they've all gone home...retail/sheeple get long at the top of market moves and sells or gets short at the bottom. It's always been this way... and it will never change. They'll buy at the top and hold that pupy all the way to the bottom and then get flushed out on the final push.

If the cartel cannot attract any sellers, and they are the only sellers, but they really want to buy, what do you think is going to happen to price? It must go higher to find sellers, otherwise they are merely trading with themselves and that is not profitable.

I do believe they are in a nasty pickle down here. There really is only 2 options...

1) Just start buying and blow the lid off the market, take some losses on those shorts and let it trend to some ridiculous number then start selling again.

2) Add a gob more shorts to push this down in hopes there are sellers below (which i suspect there are not and they know this) thereby increasing their losses as price springs higher from lack of sellers, and increase their losses.

obviously option 1) is the most favorable outcome. Couple this with the fear index I am seeing on this board, and you have a time to start loading up on phyz and miners(I've got the phyz down here, so I have loaded up on Miners. There are some great vales at these prices PAAS particularly) If I have missed a 3rd possible scenario do chime in. This should play out, as Turd has been conjecturing, as an explosive summer.

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:24pm


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Jul 12, 2012 - 1:25pm



it just doesn't make sense when one uses logic.

1) It is human nature to spend every dime you have. It is political nature to spend every dime you have and every dime you can pull forward from future taxpayers. Especially when you can buy votes with this money. (Funny - that was the same logic used in the dotcom boom as folks "bought eyeballs" with acquisitions)

2) These BK's are real. If there was some magical money laying around they would save these cities, soon counties, then states. Who do you think is going to pick up the local police job (sheriff) who do you think is going to help the sheriff when he gets laid off? (CHP?) Who is going do the CHP's job? (national guard? FEMA? HS? feds) No one want city failures....

3) Unfunded liabilities are not with B's, but T's. that is a thousand x. Even if California had $600B, it would be the largest surplus in the nation since it is the largest state economy, and this doesn't even pay a couple months interest onthe existing $100 trillion liability that we have between medicare and SS....this doesn't include a dime of pensions...which is also in T' is just not there

It is over. Treasuries are a joke....they are this season's version of the dotcom boom. Munis are in the lead only because they cannot print money to pay their notes. How long can you do that? You cannot raise more taxes. There are no choices. Solutions (like BK - we have no more money) are being forced upon, not selected by various parties. The BKs will just move up the chain from city to county to state to country.....

if silver can -and its a big if - move above that high on Monday, lows (FOREVER) are in.

wtfdik? I own PSLV????? doh!

proton777 Harald
Jul 12, 2012 - 1:29pm

If I remember correctly, it

If I remember correctly, it took Sprott a long time - maybe it was months - to complete his first purchase to fill the PSLV vaults. If this pop in silver is related to the new offering, it's just a pop on news. It will take a while to take physical delivery.

I seriously doubt he is using the Comex. The risk of delivery failure is a possibility, especially when the Comex has been deemed Too Big To Fail. There are no consequences to massive naked short selling and failure to deliver when you are TBTF.

Clearly Sprott sees silver at a buyable price here. Maybe even a bargain. Hopefully this offering will put a solid bottom in silver.

realitybiter edge
Jul 12, 2012 - 1:33pm

PAAS great value

What is the nationalization risk in PAAS? What would it be if silver became money again? (100%)

I think the warning signs on the miners are screaming at us. I think there is a good reason they have underperformedfor the last 5 years. It is not oil prices. It is not epa regulations. It is the potential cost of nationalization. Even in idaho or alaska or mexico....

The funny thing about nationalization is that it will make mines less successful, destroy production....and should lead to higher PM prices...

I think ranting Andy is right on this one. Maybe Sinclair will be successful in Tanzania, but even if he is and the South Americans keep stealing private property, that risk will be priced into TRX, holding it back.

just my 2 lincolns

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:37pm


Great timing from ESprott, this is important as from memory he helped catalyse the Silver market on two separate runs before by announcing an offering at a propitious moment. I wonder how much it ran up after he announced a $580m purchase in 2010? I certainly remember in January, although it seems a while ago, that spot went up 20% after he announced a follow-on offering. We hit the downtrend and came back that time but then the price had uncoiled 20% by the time it came to the trendline. This time we are very close to it so I just fancy the force of a new bout of speculative buying as well as short-covering could be a bridge too far for the wedge to resolve any way other than up. The reason I feel quite strongly about this is because I get Sandeep Jaitly's Basis Service. Not wanting to sound like a broken record here and without dumping his hard work graphically chart-wise into the thread wholesale I would just like to refresh Turdville as to what he sees that others don't. I am purposefully simplifying what is relatively complex but am confident I am not compromising the underlying truth.

The Basis/Co-basis are created by stacking data sets from a series of LBMA member Banks. It tracks the availability of allocated versus unallocated metal based, crucially on both the Bid and Ask sides of those levels. Like any other financial instrument, the way to gauge tightness or illiquidity is to look at the spread. A widening spread indicates all is not well. Lease rates are a wholly unhelpful/invalid comparable measure of this crucial dynamic. Suffice to say an update from Sandeep today was confirming exactly what everyone else is saying about the lack of physical in allocated form for delivery. Gold is in 'very large backwardation for the August contract and July/Sep Silver' - well, seeing as that is 3/5 weeks away (expiry/delivery date) this is gotta give soon. Most of today spot Gold traded way ahead of GCQ2 and something is building, that combined with Eric scaring spec shorts and the low %age bounce (- what 5% initially then just 10-12% overall?) needed to break long-term resistance on the chart, is making the light at the end of the tunnel come into view. Also it would seem that Eric is a good judge of dual discipline of technicals and tightness in the physical market - all just IMO of course!

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:40pm


Metals- check

real estate - eh, little check

fine art- does this count?

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:41pm

turkey bucket--rain barrels

Just wondering if they are new or used. If used, do you know what was in them originally? The reason I ask is that we own a commercial herbicide spraying business and we get herbicide (usually glyphosate "generic Roundup") in shuttles exactly like that. I would be too concerned about residue to use ours to store water for a garden. I don't know how you would adequately clean them out.

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:43pm


That is some mighty fine art in my opinion!

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:44pm


Yep, looks like another FUSB movement. I waited too long again.

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:49pm

Sprott's Purchase

I'll bet he's making his big buy while the premium is not too high, only a little over 7% yesterday. Taking 7 million oz. of phyzz off the market is a stake in the heart of the banksters, whether he purchases directly from the miners or on the Crimex. At this point the banksters have got to be pretty desperate. They don't need much phyzz to satisfy physical deliveries on the Crimex, what with cash settlements and settlements with GLD/SLV. But when the LBMA runs completely out of phyzz, the s#&+ will hit the fan, theft of allocated accounts will become known and go viral, and the LBMA and the Crimex will go supernova.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 12, 2012 - 1:49pm


I agree on the bankruptcies, mostly. But this part:

"Who do you think is going to pick up the local police job (sheriff) who do you think is going to help the sheriff when he gets laid off? (CHP?) Who is going do the CHP's job? (national guard? FEMA? HS? feds) No one want city failures...."

Feds overtaking local controls and responsibilities would seem to be right on our trajectory. The office of Sheriff often comes with some pretty interesting powers and possibilities. They have been known to be a thorn in the side of the Feds and could potentially be MUCH more. I think there certainly are those who would like to shift power from local, elected law enforcement to some of the more reliable cogs in the machine.

Jul 12, 2012 - 1:51pm

Rain Barrels, cont'd

A lot of these are used to transport corn syrup, used in manufacture of soda, candy and food. Mine stored a prewash for powder coating. Hopefully non toxic, but I have no idea. You can search Craigslist under totes, tote, water tote(s) and rain barrel(s) and probably other terms I'm not aware of. If anyone knows if that prewash is toxic, would appreciate it if you could drop me a note. I was told it wasn't by the seller, but...? Thx.

Dagney Taggart
Jul 12, 2012 - 2:01pm


It's called bleach. The hole in the top is big enough for an arm. Be patient and clean them right. Those are some great bins.

The next pullback in gold will be the tell.

Jul 12, 2012 - 2:11pm

@murphy. Clearly you are a connoisseur

This one also has a certain je ne se qua

Jul 12, 2012 - 2:17pm


I agree that nationally we're taking T's not B's. Please listen to the mp3, Walter explains it much better than I ever could. But if I have the gyst of it right, then the state of Cali. is just one of hundreds of entities.

I always wondered where all that BlackOp funding to enslave us came from.

edge realitybiter
Jul 12, 2012 - 2:19pm

@realitybiter nationalization risk and PAAS

Argentina and Bolivia are the biggest risks as for Natoinalization. Here is an analysis from a message board I visit. Poster who contributed this handle is warmcamp on yahoo message moard

Let’s look now at mineral reserve numbers (maybe, something wrong is here?). PAAS total P&P reserves (they don’t include any mineral resource numbers, i.e. nothing from Navidad) are 350 MOz silver and 3 MOz gold. If we exclude all (!) reserves located in Argentina and Bolivia then total P&P numbers are 285 MOz silver and 2.5 MOz gold, or in equivalent way it is 420-430 MOz silver-eq. By modest valuation ($8/Oz) that could be applied to these reserves (they are all located in good mining jurisdiction, on fully permitted and operating mines, etc.) “fair value” can’t be less than $3B.

The numbers above do not include cash or cash equivalents, about 600 million per march balance sheet. and they pay a .15 annual divy

Obviously, if you are in the market you are taking risk. How one quantifies those risks can be tricky, particularly for a simpleton like myself. And remember, these are trades, my core is in phyz metals, this is a completely different strategy, shorter term...weeks to months...days in some cases if there is a big enough move in a mining stock I trade.

The climate for mine nat. may change over the years, but right now it is pretty straight forward. A few risky countries and the rest are good.

Jul 12, 2012 - 2:24pm

@ ProForma ...

… putting aside option to stack, EXK compelling at these levels (trading at apx $5.80/oz on booked Ag(e) reserves incl recent AuRico acq based on my calc) but suggest patience with all the miners as this period of under-performance for the PM miners could last for a while longer … not following CZICF/NW Terr asset any longer, but as I recall Sprott Asset Mgmt is a backer/did a private placement in the past

Disc: long EXK calls

Big Buffalo
Jul 12, 2012 - 2:26pm

For those folks with TA knowledge. . .

how important is it for us to finish with gold above $1576 today?

Jul 12, 2012 - 2:48pm

GSR trying to break uptrend

GSR trying to break uptrend support again. Good for silver.

Jul 12, 2012 - 2:54pm

Savagely beaten indeed and bad Santa

Get a load of the daily chart and how AU bounced off that trend line. What happens if she gets broken with gusto on the downside one wonders out loud.

"Silver" lining in that the AG chart today I suppose but damn. That chart has been looking horrid too.

Jul 12, 2012 - 2:58pm



Very few analysts realize what will happen to the United States when the US TREASURY BUBBLE BURSTS. We are now seeing plenty of coverage and news releases on LIBOR manipulation, PFG bankruptcy, Gold Manipulation... and etc. The world is really starting to realize just how bad the situation has become. All that is left is for the large DEAD STINKING CARCASS OF THE WESTERN BANKING SYSTEM to fall off the cliff.

When the world realizes that the ALLOCATED GOLD is not there, and in its place is nicely printed gold certificates... WE WILL ENTER INTO A NEW WORLD. This will be great for a fraction of the public, but hell for the rest. This is also true for countries who produce GOLD & SILVER.

I would imagine gold and silver mines will be nationalized in shocking speed when this event takes place. The United States is not in a good situation as it only produces approximately 36 million oz of silver. Below we can see the LINEUP:

The USA comes in 9th in the long list of silver producers. If we take a good look at the different countries, common sense would tells us that these countries have the largest risk of nationalization:

1) Bolivia

2) Argentina

3) Peru

4) Mexico


The first which is Bolivia would have the most risk, and Mexico would be the last. Don't think that Mexico would not nationalize its mines, if the world could no longer trust Financial Institutions or Central Banks. These four countries produced 324 million of the total 750 million oz of silver in the world in 2011.

Russia and China are special circumstances. China keeps all of its silver, so you can forget ever getting any from them. Russia, does export some of their silver, but I would imagine this would vanish overnight when the worlds financial system collapses. These two countries produced about 144 million oz of silver in 2011.

Together, these six countries account for 468 million oz of silver production in 2011....or 63% of the total. If we look at my graph from a previous article, we can see that domestic U.S. silver production could not meet the demand of just the Silver Eagle sales:

Now, if we compare this to U.S. Gold production vs Gold Eagle sales, we can see quite the difference:

The United States was the third largest gold producer in the world in 2011 behind Australia and then China. Here are the figures:

1) China = 11.4 million oz

2) Australia = 8.7 million oz

3) USA = 7.6 million oz


This presents a very dire situation for the United States obtaining silver in the future. That is why, I believe silver will outperform gold on a percentage basis.... several orders of magnitude.


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