Three Items For The Overnight

Mon, Jul 2, 2012 - 6:01pm

Thanks to all who submitted guesses for the latest hat contest. The contest is now closed. Recognizing you need a new thread for the overnight, here are three things to discuss.

First, Trader Dan doesn't have the time to post every day but, when he does, it's almost always worth your time to read. His post from Friday was fantastic. Below is a chart of his which I lifted from the post. It shows that we currently have a "record" amount of naked spec shorts in silver. Surely, this is a bullish, contrarian indicator and it follows along with the theory I've posited here that The Silver Cartel is methodically shifting the burden of being short from themselves to the specs (sheep).

Next, our pal Jeff Nielson has penned a great new article. This time he focuses on the LIEbor scandal. Please take the time to read it.

Lastly, please take 30 minutes to listen to this program from BBC radio. It is a fair and balanced discussion of the benefits and challenges of a return to "the gold standard". It features two guys with whom many Turdites have become familiar, John Butler and Detlev Schlichter. Well worth your time even though it presupposes that "The West" will have some choice as to whether or not the world returns to sound money. Also, the arrogant AGA at 23:00 almost makes me homicidal. (If an admin can figure out a way to embed this audio, please do.)

Okey-dokey, that's all for today. See you on Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Be Prepared
Jul 3, 2012 - 8:49am
Jul 3, 2012 - 8:51am


Chubut mining law reform proposal could derail Navidad silver project


Pan American Silver warned Monday that if proposed legislation introduced by the governor of Chubut Province in Argentina is approved as is by the provincial legislature, it will render the company's Navidad Project "uneconomic at any reasonable estimate of long-term silver prices."

In the event "that the law is approved as proposed without any meaningful modifications, Pan American will have no other reasonable option but to suspend further investment in Navidad. Without clear potential for positive economic returns, further investment and project expenditures cannot be justified," the company stressed.

As Mineweb first reported on June 21, Chubut Gov. Martin Buzzi has submitted to the provincial legislature a bill providing for state ownership of mining operations and an increase of 3% to 8% in mining royalties.


Here we can see that the NATIONALIZATION of the MINING INDUSTRY is picking up speed as I forecasted in several of my articles. Navidad is a huge project that would double Pan American's silver output -- over 20 million oz per year. Again, at some point in time when gold and silver become monetary metals again in the MAINSTREAM, you will see nationalization of mines like never seen before.

Be Prepared
Jul 3, 2012 - 8:52am
Be Prepared
Jul 3, 2012 - 8:57am
Beastly Stack
Jul 3, 2012 - 8:58am


28 should give withe ease here!

Be Prepared
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:05am
Just A Regular Guy
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:10am

On the move

Wow stuff is moving!!! Everywhere! Libor, JPM, Iran. Wow it's just action!

Au/Ag are moving!! I'm excited but fearful.


Jul 3, 2012 - 9:11am

Nationalization ...

@SRSrocco ... this age old battle of private capital (PAAS in this case) vs state control (inefficient by definition) will be interesting to watch unfold as clearly not in Argentina's interest to see Navidad type mines not built i.e. job creation, velocity of money for Chubut province, etc ... my guess is a politically acceptable, regional compromise ultimately reached but could be years of waiting for PAAS shareholders (hence their move on MFN).

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:18am

Lost one of my best friends two days ago...

Life is short, live every day like a gift. Please, no political BS about senseless wars... he died they way he wanted if not the way his family wanted.

Big Buffalo
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:19am

Ira Epstein

I enjoy watching Ira's daily updates.

Recap of the end of day from yesterday.

Gold: 18 day and 45 day average is $1597ish, 100 day avg and top bollinger band is $1648-$1642, his concern would be at the $1547.60 level, if it falls below that then "watch out below". Also, it's not over bought.

It's very nice to see his assessment is on the same line as Turd's.

Not sure what all this means, but it's looking good.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:27am

Im sorry, Fortinbras

Prayers go out for his family.

Mods: Please be on the lookout. Non-condolence posts will not be tolerated.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:29am


the silver spot chart looks like somebody slipped a jalapeno into a sensitive spot.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:29am


The United States government has tacked on $1.5 Tril in debt since June 30,2011. Total new debt during the first half of 2012 doubled the debt added during the same period of 2011. And tomorrow the sheep will celebrate their "independence" day.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:30am

US $ Stalls at Support S&P500 Chart Warns of Possible Reversal

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance at 1363.90, pointing to indecision and hinting a move lower may be ahead. Initial support lines up in the 1334.40-41.90 area. Alternatively, a break

break higher exposes the next upside barrier at 1392.10.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Commodities Rise as Markets Dream of Central Bank Stimulus

Commodity prices are trading broadly higher amid a pickup in risk appetite as markets revel in hopes that central banks across the globe will ease monetary policy. Growth-linked crude oil and copper prices are following stocks higher. Gold and silver advanced on the back of rising demand for precious metals as an inflation hedge in the event that a further loosening of monetary policies unleashes runaway price growth.

Unexpectedly weak UK Construction PMI and Eurozone PPI figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will expand asset purchases by another £50 billion while the European Central Bank cuts its benchmark lending rate to a record-low 0.75 percent when both unveil their monthly policy announcements later this week. Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder helped stoke bets on further US easing, saying the recent run of poor economic data is “strengthening the positions of the doves” on the central bank’s rate-setting committee in an interview with Bloomberg News. Finally, an editorial in the China Securities Journal said the “time was ripe” for the PBoC to cut rates further.

Looking ahead, the durability of the risk-on tone appears vulnerable heading into the opening bell on Wall Street. S&P 500 stock index futures are notably treading water, hinting the markets aren’t quite prepared to fully commit to a pro-risk disposition. US Factory Orders data headlines the economic calendar, with expectations calling for a 0.1 percent increase in May to snap a two-month losing streak. Considering that the latest round of expectant dreaming about stimulus possibilities was triggered by a dismal ISM Manufacturing print, a decently firm data point may counter-intuitively snuff risk appetite.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $83.75 // -1.21 // -1.42%

Prices are testing resistance at 85.11, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break higher exposing the 38.2% level at 89.97 (a barrier reinforced by the psychologically significant 90.00 figure). A Hanging Man candlestick points to indecision and warns a downswing may be ahead. Near-term support lines up at 81.19, with a break below that exposing the June 21 close at 78.11.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1597.10 // -0.30 // -0.02%

Prices put in a Doji candlestick below resistance at 1606.74, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, warning of indecision and hinting a move lower may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 1585.44, the 38.2% level, with a break below that targeting the 61.8% Fibat 1551.50. Alternatively, a break higher aims at falling trend line resistance set from late March, now at 1621.45.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.49 // +0.01 // +0.04%

Prices are retesting the formerly broken bottom of a Flag chart formation, now at 28.11. A break higher exposes 28.45 and the 29.00 figure. Near-term support is at 26.75, with a break below that exposing the multi-month triple bottom at 26.05.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.470 // -0.026 // -0.74%

Prices are testing above falling trend line support-turned-resistance set from late January to challenge the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 3.548. A break higher exposes the next layer of resistance in the 3.618-21 are marked by a former support and the 61.8% Fib. The 38.2% level at 3.474 and a former range top at 3.424 line up as near-term downside barriers.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices are consolidating above support in the 10037-49 area, with resistance seen at 10079 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this level targets the 23.6% level at 10123. Alternatively, a push below support exposes the 61.8% Fib at 10009.

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:31am

Canadian Dollar Gains, Yen Slumps on Central Bank Stimulus Hopes

The Canadian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as stocks advanced, pulling sentiment-linked currencies higher. The newswires attributed the advance to expectations that the Federal Reserve may be more likely to introduce additional stimulus measures after ISM data showed that US manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in June. Comments from former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder helped stoke bets on further easing. Blinder said the recent string of poor economic data are “strengthening the positions of the doves on the Fed” in an interview with Bloomberg News. Separately, an editorial in the China Securities Journal said the “time was ripe” for the PBoC to cut rates further.

The Australian Dollar was little changed after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 3.5 percent while leaving the door open for further easing in the months ahead, effectively reinforcing status quo market expectations. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said a “subdued international outlook” warranted “material easing in monetary policy” despite expectations that Australian economic growth and inflation will remain broadly close to trend over the coming one to two years. The Japanese Yen sold off as the pickup in equities sapped demand for the go-to regional haven currency. The New Zealand Dollar lagged after global prices for the country’s commodity exports fell for a fifth consecutive month, according to ANZ.

Looking ahead, the pickup in risk appetite may prove limited as S&P 500 stock index futures point lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, although global stimulus expectations may get a further boost asEurozone PPI figures reveal the slowest pace of wholesale inflation in over two years. The outcome could reinforce forecasts calling for the European Central Bank to cut its headline lending rate to a record-low 0.75 percent later this week. An unexpected drop below the 50 “boom-bust” threshold in UK Construction PMI seems to be yielding similar results, with the Bank of England expected to boost asset purchases by another £50 billion on Thursday.

Asia Session: What Happened









Monetary Base (YoY) (JUN)






ANZ Commodity Price (JUN)






Non-manufacturing PMI (JUN)






Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY)



0.2% (R-)



Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY)



-7.6% (R+)



Building Approvals (YoY) (MAY)



-23.0% (R+)



Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision




Euro Session: What to Expect









PMI Construction (JUN)

48.2 (A)





Net Consumer Credit (MAY)

0.7B (A)





Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAY)

0.6B (A)





Mortgage Approvals (MAY)

51.1K (A)





M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAY)

-0.1% (A)





M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY)

-4.1% (A)





M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAY)

3.6% (A)





Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) (MAY)






Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) (MAY)




Critical Levels










--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:33am

The CME's Daily Delivery Report

The CME's Daily Delivery Report for the second delivery day in July showed that 6 gold and only 99 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday. In silver, the biggest short/issuer was Merrill with 95 contracts...and biggest long/stoppers were JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia. They stood for delivery on all 99 contracts issued. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

As of the preliminary report from the CME in the wee hours of this morning, there are about 2,400 silver contracts still open in July.

There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday, but an authorized participant[s] withdrew an eye-watering 4,364,343 troy ounces of silver from SLV. It's hard to say whether that withdrawal was price action-related...or whether the silver was more desperately needed elsewhere.

The U.S. Mint had a small sales report to start out the month of July. They sold 2,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 269,500 silver eagles.

The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 599,997 troy ounces of silver on Friday...all of it into Brink's, Inc. The link to that action is here.

By Ed Steer Gold & Silver Daily

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:35am

Morgan Stanley

Unsealed Documents Expose Morgan Stanley Forcing Rating Agencies To Inflate Ratings

The following story from Bloomberg, which will likely pick up much more steam over the next weeks and months, detailing how the bank which just barely avoided a triple notch downgrade (wink, wink) has had previous dealings with the very same rating agencies seeking to, picture this, artificially inflate ratings!

So to summarize: Fed manipulates capital markets, HFT manipulates bid ask spreads, "self-policing" CDS pricing market groups fudge the prices on trillions in Credit Default Swaps, bank cabals collude and manipulate short-term interest rates, and now banks are confirmed to have manipulated the ratings on tens of billions of bonds using monetary incentives and threats.

Is there anything in this "market" that was fair over the past several decades, and was actual price discovery ever actually possible?

This Zero Hedge story

The link is here.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:36am

Barclays libor scandal:

Barclays libor scandal: lock 'em up - it's the only way of dealing with abuse like this

Virtually all financial scandals follow the same pattern. First there is the initial exposure of wrong doing, then comes the mitigating claim that it was common practice and everyone was up to it, and finally it emerges that the regulators knew all along but failed to act.

The only bit of the generally repeated sequence of events missing in the Barclays case is the one I haven't mentioned – the cover-up. As the crisis develops, someone, often the chief executive, is nearly always caught attempting to destroy the evidence.

Barclays did at least manage to avoid that one; emails are not so easily shredded as the paper work of old. But the other two elements are now fast snowballing; as is now apparent, manipulation of interbank interest rates appears to have been endemic at a number of banks and what's more, regulators repeatedly ignored warnings of it.

Regulatory failure is as much a part of this story as the mischief itself. To state this reality is not to absolve Barclays or anyone else from blame, but merely to point out that such scandals tend invariably to occur against a backdrop of poor standards, lack of vigilance and a general climate of regulatory tolerance.

Posted in The Telegraph's website

The link is here.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:37am

Debt crisis: Finland

Debt crisis: Finland threat to plans to unleash ESM

Finland, one of the eurozone’s few remaining AAA-rated economies, has pledged to block Brussels’ celebrated plans to allow its new bail-out fund to buy sovereign bonds in the market.

“Finland finds it an inefficient way to stabilise markets,” said a senior Finnish government official told reporters.

A spokesman for the Dutch finance ministry said: “The Prime Minister said on June 29 he is not in favour of buying up bonds. Using the existing instruments to buy up bonds will be expensive and can only be done if there is unanimity (between member states). That means the Netherlands would need to vote in favour.”

Posted on The Telegraph's website

The link is here.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:38am

Iran lawmakers prepare to close Hormuz Strait

Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill that would close the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers heading to countries supporting current economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

"There is a bill prepared in the National Security and Foreign Policy committee of Parliament that stresses the blocking of oil tanker traffic carrying oil to countries that have sanctioned Iran," Iranian MP Ibrahim Agha-Mohammadi told reporters.

"This bill has been developed as an answer to the European Union's oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Agha-Mohammadi said that 100 of Tehran's 290 members of parliament had signed the bill as of Sunday.

Posted over on the Russia Times website

The link is here.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:40am

James Turk: Where was the German gold?

am an avid reader of monetary history. Of late I have been focusing on the monetary events of the 1920s and 1930s. By learning from the maelstrom that riled the global financial scene during those two tumultuous decades, I aim to better understand present circumstances because there are many similarities between then and now.

I’ve just finished a fascinating book published in 1955 entitled Confessions of The Old Wizard. It is the autobiography of Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht, whose improbable name reflects his North Schleswig ancestry and his father’s admiration of an American newspaper editor.

For those not familiar with him, Schacht is generally given credit for ending in 1923 the Weimar Republic hyperinflation and putting Germany once again on a sound monetary footing, commendable feats which earned him the nickname “The Old Wizard”. He did this first as Commissioner of the Currency for the Finance Ministry and thereafter as President of the Reichsbank. For these achievements, he received worldwide acclaim as well as fame, if that word accurately describes the popular attention and respect given to a skilled central banker.

Schacht’s autobiography contains many stories and anecdotes, including those of his meetings with dozens of famous people. But Schacht’s account of a meeting with Benjamin Strong is one I found particularly important, shocking even.

Strong was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from its creation in 1914 until his death in 1928. Strong, Schacht, Montague Norman of England and Émile Moreau of France were the most powerful and influential central bankers of their time.

Strong was in effect the head of the Federal Reserve because the New York bank back then dominated the system. Reforms in the 1930s diminished somewhat the power of the New York bank, but to this day it remains vitally important because it alone of the 12 Federal Reserve banks transacts with other central banks. For example, there is reportedly some Bundesbank gold stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vault near Wall Street, which is it often said contains the world’s largest accumulation of gold.

It is the same vault Schacht visited during one of his trips to New York to meet with Benjamin Strong. Here is how Schacht relates this remarkable event.

Another amusing incident arose from the fact that the Reichsbank maintained a not inconsiderable gold deposit in the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. Strong was proud to be able to show us the vaults which were situated in the deepest cellar of the building and remarked:

“Now, Herr Schacht, you shall see where the Reichsbank gold is kept.”

While the staff looked for the hiding place of the Reichsbank gold we went through the vaults. We waited several minutes: at length we were told: “Mr. Strong, we can’t find the Reichsbank gold.”

Strong was flabbergasted but I comforted him. “Never mind: I believe you when you say the gold is there. Even if it weren’t you are good for its replacement."

Shocking, isn’t it. Clearly, it is bad enough that the Reichsbank gold could not be found nor, according to Schacht’s account, did Strong offer to find it. But regardless whether it could not be located due to bad recordkeeping by the Federal Reserve or because the gold was not in the vault is not as significant as Schacht’s nonchalant response to what he astonishingly calls an “amusing incident”. Where is his outrage that the Reichsbank gold could not be located? Why is there no worry about the disposition of the gold and its safety? After all, as President of the Reichsbank, he had responsibility for all of its assets, of which gold is by far the most important.

What can we learn from this event? Schacht apparently considered friendship to other central bankers and his membership in their exclusive club to be a higher priority than his responsibility as guardian of a nation’s gold. Schacht did not question Strong, so the actual location and true circumstances of the Reichsbank gold remained unknown. This astonishing incident would not have occurred if the Reichsbank had instead stored the gold in its own vault.

Posted over at his website

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:44am


My condolences also. I'm sorry to hear you lost a close friend.

Hang tough, friend.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:45am

sheep shearing time

Banking suppression in overdrive.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:46am
TreeTop Dweller Fortinbras
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:49am

Losing you Friend

Thanks for sharing and reminding us of the great sacrifices other countries are making.

I have a son in the military and these stories really make me appreciate every day i get to speak with him.

Ned Braden TreeTop Dweller
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:55am


7th tour of duty! Wow. Sometimes there are no words.....

John Galt Fortinbras
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:55am

@ Fortinbras re: Sorry for Your Loss

Sorry to hear about the loss of your friend, Fortinbras.

Thanks also for sharing the link to the article, since the telling of his story helps to keep him from becoming just another statistic.

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:57am

Jul 3, 2012 - 9:59am

And following along with Trader Dan's chart

Here's a live shot from the silver pit

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:02am


IF it can crawl back above $88 and stay there for awhile, crude MAY be getting ready for a run back to $100.


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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