Three Items For The Overnight

Mon, Jul 2, 2012 - 6:01pm

Thanks to all who submitted guesses for the latest hat contest. The contest is now closed. Recognizing you need a new thread for the overnight, here are three things to discuss.

First, Trader Dan doesn't have the time to post every day but, when he does, it's almost always worth your time to read. His post from Friday was fantastic. Below is a chart of his which I lifted from the post. It shows that we currently have a "record" amount of naked spec shorts in silver. Surely, this is a bullish, contrarian indicator and it follows along with the theory I've posited here that The Silver Cartel is methodically shifting the burden of being short from themselves to the specs (sheep).

Next, our pal Jeff Nielson has penned a great new article. This time he focuses on the LIEbor scandal. Please take the time to read it.

Lastly, please take 30 minutes to listen to this program from BBC radio. It is a fair and balanced discussion of the benefits and challenges of a return to "the gold standard". It features two guys with whom many Turdites have become familiar, John Butler and Detlev Schlichter. Well worth your time even though it presupposes that "The West" will have some choice as to whether or not the world returns to sound money. Also, the arrogant AGA at 23:00 almost makes me homicidal. (If an admin can figure out a way to embed this audio, please do.)

Okey-dokey, that's all for today. See you on Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


ClinkinKY cpnscarlet
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:15pm

1,000 Hat Tips

What's in a Name...

Submitted by cpnscarlet on July 2, 2012 - 7:03pm. Hat Tip! 0

So, bam and biochar - you're in favor of various government education programs with fancy names? Send your kids to the re-education school run by Uncky Sham and all is well???


"we've always been at war with Eastasia."

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:33pm


I like outside of the box thinking and you're good at it. I can't address the mechanics of it and the numbers like you or TF and others can, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything.

It would actually surprise me if the Fed/Treasury weren't doing all sorts of unimaginable things that they have within their means and within their unaudited books. JPM amd GS and other TBTF shadow entities being the facilitators sounds about right.

The onion skin of deceit and influence in the markets and CB's will be known or audited someday and what we find out will be stunning. Will it be 5 or 50 years from now? Sooner? Idk.

Dyna mo hum ¤
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:35pm

Indigo nice coin!!

Thanks but what the hell do I know. I thought those coins were too high at $300 apple stock too high at $100 Ruger stock too high at $10 and Google would be another dot com go bust. Wtf is wrong with me?

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:36pm


RL - I appreciate you putting the chart together and all, but just because my silver guess happened to be the same as your guess should not mean I don't get one. Just means we both should win a hat. I would greatly appreciate you adding my guess for silver.


P.S. - There's some self moderating for you.


Submitted by OrangeAlert on July 2, 2012 - 4:16pm. Hat Tip! 1

Silver - 27.12

Gold - 1583.12

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:37pm
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:44pm

Any "Down Under" Turdites want to fill us in on this...

...Aussie Moonbat? Payoff comes at approx. 1:30 for the impatient types. (Carbon taxes)

Video unavailable
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:46pm

More On Barclays

Must read articles IMHO: 1) "Libor scandal: How I manipulated the bank borrowing rate" 2)"Britain's regulators may have fostered Libor rigging" 3) "Why I quit Barclays: Marcus Agius in his own words" Pay attention to the spin! This is a guy who's allegedly responsible for stealing trillions upon trillions of dollars yet he gets to tell his side of the story while none of the victims gets the same. Pay attention to the pic with the Sky and clouds at his background... Doesn't he look like the almighty himself? Do you think that this pic is a mere coincidence? Pics influence the subconscious mind much more than words. 4) And last: The Coverup: "Barclays rate fixing scandal: Parliament to launch inquiry" "He added that he would ask the joint committee to report by the end of this year." By the end of the year it'll all be forgotten off course. Off course, none of these things ever takes place in the Mining shares or in the Precious Metal markets. Manipulations and conspiracies can only take place in other markets. Trust me.

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:59pm

LIBOR - it's not going away ...

From ZH:

"With Europe, the BBA, and virtually everyone shocked, shocked, that the global bank cabal schemed and colluded for years to manipulate interest rates, so far only America appears relatively blase, and totally ignorant, about the issue."* (*my caps)

This is big stuff ladies and gents. Really big. Do check it out.

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:05pm

Watch the cop get put in his place…

…for stopping this guy whose only 'crime' was legally carrying a firearm.

Video unavailable
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:06pm

Faber On Europe: Think GERxit Not GRExit

IndigoStar7 On Europe: Consider a BOExit asap

Big Buffalo
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:07pm

@Dyna mo hum

regarding: Thanks but what the hell do I know. I thought those coins were too high at $300 apple stock too high at $100 Ruger stock too high at $10 and Google would be another dot com go bust. Wtf is wrong with me?

What do you think about SWHC (Smith and Wesson)? When from $6.89 on Wednesday to $8.89 today. (I have that "it's too expensive, I'll wait for a pullback problem too.)

Just wondering if others had thoughts on the fair value of this stock.

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:25pm

ZH is awesome

I'm not sure how many times I may thought those words when I cruise there and see the scope of what they do daily in their unique way.

We've been talking about the UST's and the Fed. purchases etc. recently on here and 'Presto!'... another relevant ZeroHedge article w/charts comes out today to help us visualize and realize the scope of those asset purchases and CB MOPE.

Great job Tyler's!


Chart Of The Day: Fed Interventions Since 2008 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2012 11:14 -0400

The chart below, via Stone McCarthy, shows the months with Fed intervention since December 2008. That in the past 42 or so months, less than one third have been intervention-free, should close any open questions about whether the stock "market" is anything but a policy vehicle used by the Fed to perpetuate a broke(n) status quo now entirely dependent on every market up (and down) tick. We dread to think what would happen to those record low US bond yields if the market were to be left on its own without the backstop of guaranteed Fed intervention in the interest rate market... ironically something which Barclays is in boiling hot water for right about now.

And a detailed breakdown:

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:28pm

Did you not see this post?

Did you not see this post? It was 15 minutes before your guess....


Submitted by rl999 on July 2, 2012 - 4:01pm.

The chart is updated frequently, it's your responsibility to take the 3 seconds needed to make sure your guess is actually valid. No more personal reminders.

Check, then post. Repeat after me. Check, then post.


Submitted by Istack on July 2, 2012 - 4:54pm.

you would make an awesome hall monitor

Respect his authoritor!!

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:31pm

Watch the cop get put in his place

Agree with everything the citizen did but why didn't the cop ask to see his gun license or is not one required (or any id for firearm) in Oregon?

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:33pm

oh my..

What an excellent after dinner laugh. I believe I was one of the first 10 or so to post, so I'm not giving up my 27.12.

Zoltan earned a hat tip from me today because his post went something like

"My guess is xx.xx, or the nearest thing in one cent increases."

There are others that never corrected their duplicate guesses either. This is not my show, I don't make the rules in this house, I just visit it frequently. It's after 6pm and I don't want to make changes without a mod telling me to do so. I'm not trying to be an dick or a rules lawyer or anything, I just don't want to over step my bounds here. I volunteered to copy and paste, nothing more.

"I need an adult!" (mod)


I need an adult!
Moderator Holliday
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:38pm


Thanks for everything your doing. Everyone appreciates it.

Unless TF contacts you and says otherwise I think everyone will trust your judgment to get it as close to possible as you possibly could considering the barrage of guesses and slightly similar guesses.

My advice...try not to stress about it and everyone will have to trust the list and keep an open mind if they miss by a penny of whatever.

No one here will go you or anyone a hard time about a hat. Other contests and hats will follow.


"Doc" prefers to keep his virtual "Peacemaker" out of sight and holstered.

Dyna mo hum Big Buffalo
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:40pm

Big Buff @ Smith and Wesson

S and W was a good company at one time and was bought out by some ass hole bidness men with no knowledge of the handgun industry and they destroyed a company that made handguns that were world renowned for quality. The bastards sucked off all the cash and assets they could and bankrupted a highly respected national institution. This happened years ago and the stock is still in the tank. I dont think I would like to own the stock and the company has had some product quality issues. Look at the Ruger chart long term as they have beat the hell out of S and W .Given the turmoil and political unrest in this country I see no reason why S and W should not be a 20 bagger given the fact that they manufacture the final solution to all our political problems!!!! But wtf do I know!!

Katie Rose
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:47pm

A disturbing conversation

I spoke with a very informed friend who lives in Indiana today. We began by speaking about PM's (he owns a LCS) and wandered into my favorite topic, farming.

He asked me, "What crop is no longer available from the East Coast, through the Midwest, up to Chicago, West to Colorado, and down through Texas?"

I was stumped. "Corn???" I replied.

"No!" he snorted, "HAY!" "There's no hay anywhere. This year's crop has burned up. Last year's crop is sold. THERE'S NO HAY!!!"

"How do you know this?" I asked.

"From my hay guy." he replied. "He's a good Christian and the hay distributor for the region. A really good guy. He can't get hold of any hay. He is being quoted $9.00 a bale (his cost) by the few farmers who have any, $9.00! And they don't have much. That means the final product this winter will be $14-$15 a bale, if he can get any. Do you know what that means?"

"HELL Yes!" I shouted. My dairy goats go through a bale a day. I CAN'T SUSTAIN THAT! NO ONE CAN SUSTAIN THAT COST!"

He asked me about hay here, and told him our sob story. "It's too wet! The farmers haven't been able to cut and dry their grass, and if they have baled, the hay will be moldy!"

He also told me that there was no corn or soybeans. They also have burned up.

So we are talking about an unfolding calamity. Like hay, soy and corn make up the animal feed farmers rely on to overwinter that livestock.

You connect the dots.

Please make sure you are stacking food along with PM's!

Things are looking very, very serious out there for food production....

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:54pm
Moderator Washington
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:57pm

Looks like we have a "situation" on our hands

Mucho thanks and kudos and hat tips to rl999 for his tireless efforts in compiling the guesses. BUT....

I don't recall seeing any prohibition against duplicate guesses. rl999 came up with this rule. It was done with the best of intentions, without malice of any kind. And it was done by the guy who stepped up and did the work. I will let his efforts at separating the guesses by a penny or so to stand.

However, in the interests of INCLUSION, as opposed to EXCLUSION, I don't want to see anyone's guess completely tossed out.

I believe OrangeAlert's 27.12 is a valid guess. If that happens to be the winning number, I think I know TF well enough to know that he'd be happy to send out hats to both the winners.

If anyone else notices that their guess is not on the list, I'm going to require you to post said concern to this thread, in order to validate your guess. When this thread is superceded by a new TF post, the deadline will pass for requests for inclusion, and the list of guesses will be FINAL. As noted above, rl999's small penny adjustments will stand.

PLEASE NOTE: This is my PROPOSAL only. I'm not the boss around here. TF is. TF is free to approve, ignore, or modify this proposal of mine in any way he deems appropriate.

Good Luck everyone!

And I don't want to hear any more kvetching about this. It's only a hat, for cryin out loud. This is supposed to be FUN!

(I'm hoping silver ends up a heck of a lot higher than 27.12!!)

NW VIEW Katie Rose
Jul 2, 2012 - 9:08pm


I just talked to my brother-in-law farmer in Western Washington. He is baling hay as fast as possible and there is a huge crop of hay all over this side of the mountains. He has been selling last years and a few bales from two years ago. We have avoided the bad heat that most of the nation is feeling and our gardens are filled with organic peas and strawberries (yum).

The cost of food is going to rocket soon and will add to problems this winter.

So It Goes
Jul 2, 2012 - 9:09pm

The necessity of critical thinking

Hi all,

I thought it important to emphasize the necessity to think critically about all the information that bombards us every day. This filtering is one of the most difficult tasks I face everyday. Between job, family, and trying to continue to be informed I can feel overwhelmed. I am not here to flame - I just think it is good to share when I can. I consider this community as family.

A few days ago a poster put up a video stating that "masonic symbols" are found on the current American Gold Eagle coin. This video states as "fact" that the current AGE has a "compass and G" on the obverse and is thus "Masonic" and is posted without comment.

An equally valid interpretation (and one that is much more highly likely) is that the design in question is actually the initials of the designer of the original $20 Double Eagle - ASG overlaid - Augustus Saint-Gaudens. The original $20 double eagle minted from 1907-1933 has this also. It is much more likely that the bureaucrats at the US Mint slavishly devoted themselves to copying this great design that has been hailed as "the most beautiful coin" ever designed (Yeoman).

Here's the lesson for me tonight - it is awfully hard to separate out verifiable data from the noise. We will have to do this to survive - critical thinking applies to information that comes from without and within.

Keep on stacking - I am more and more sure.

Jul 2, 2012 - 9:20pm
bam cpnscarlet
Jul 2, 2012 - 9:45pm


> bam and biochar - you're in favor of various government education programs with fancy names? Send your kids to the re-education school run by Uncky Sham and all is well???

Who said that? No need to put words in my mouth. I was objecting to the inclusion of the "critical thinking" bit (which biochar had bolded). And what do you know, Texas lawmakers all of a sudden realize what utter morons they are and backtrack on that position (but they can't change the platform of course):

“[The chairman of the Education Subcommittee] indicated that it was an oversight of the committee, that the plank should not have included ‘critical thinking skills’ after ‘values clarification,’” Elam said. “And it was not the intent of the subcommittee to present a plank that would have indicated that the RPT [Republican Party of Texas] in any way opposed the development of critical thinking skills.” Elam said the members of the subcommittee “regret” the oversight, but because the mistake was part of the platform approved by the convention, “it cannot be corrected until the next state convention in 2014.” TPM asked Elam what the intent of subcommittee had been in including the “Knowledge-Based Education” plank. “I think the intent is that the Republican Party is opposed to the values clarification method that serves the purpose of challenging students beliefs and undermine parental authority,” he said. These are the same geniuses that want to teach creationism as part of the science program in schools. Meanwhile, the Chinese and other Asian cultures continue to wipe the floor with US students in math and science, laughing all the way to the bank at the foolish Americans.
bam So It Goes
Jul 2, 2012 - 9:46pm

@So it Goes

>Here's the lesson for me tonight - it is awfully hard to separate out verifiable data from the noise. We will have to do this to survive - critical thinking applies to information that comes from without and within.

Good post. I'd also add that, in order to do the above, you have to be able to read and think critically on opinions and philosophies that might be wholly different from your own. That is a hard thing for most people to do.

It's so easy to fill your mind with things that back up your pre-formed beliefs. Arch conservative and arch liberals alike are the most guilty of this.

eg. I specifically follow a couple of trading services/sites that have very conflicting opinions on the markets and macro/political events. I can't just accept one guy's views and organize my trading in that fashion. I'm forced to think critically about what is actually going on and how I should best approach it.

The key here is that it is hard to do this. It is work. It takes effort. It's much easier to see the world as you already see it.

cpnscarlet bam
Jul 2, 2012 - 9:53pm

@bam - and if you're the type

@bam - and if you're the type that still believes that mechanistic Darwinism can explain the "accidental" occurrence of complex cellular microbiology, then you're the one who needs some extra math homework - namely probs and stats.

You're beginning to sound more and more like a one-note Somba.

R man J
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:05pm

Hey...So it Goes

Hat tip to you for taking the initiative exposing the tin foil hat on the (non) Masonic symbol on the 1 oz gold eagle.

When I read that, I felt intuitively that it was probably a false suspicion and that it was likely the designers initials.

American Gold Eagles are vindicated again.

Jul 2, 2012 - 10:20pm

It's a "Samba"!

The "One Note S​a​mba" sounds especially cool on a ukulele.

James Hill - One Note Samba

Not ordinarily the spelling police, but all things considered, in this instance…

Personally, I wish more people were like the 'one-note-samba' - it's a cool tune.

Jul 2, 2012 - 10:21pm

Why some feel "critical thinking skills" are "dangerous"

The problem is not that some conservatives are against people actually thinking through things clearly. What we have here is an issue of a language gap.

There are those who feel that the "critical thinking skills" curriculum in public schools was a trojan horse designed NOT to teach kids how to think, but to prepare them to be brainwashed into socialist/communist/globalist thought processes.

See the book "The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America" for more on this:

Ebook available for free:

I'm not sure I agree with the author that all new educational advances are evil or part of an agenda, but it is an interesting read (so far, I haven't finished it yet).

Jul 2, 2012 - 10:37pm

World without Gold

A world without love - Peter and Gordon

Up $ 3.30


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