The Army Advances

Sat, Jun 30, 2012 - 11:19am

Turd's Army, led by Brigadier General Andrew Maguire, made significant advances against enemy positions in June.

Keep in mind how this works. As a member of Andy's service, "DayTrades", you get to follow along to see where and when Andy puts on positions throughout the trading day. Two important items:

  1. The bulk of this trading takes place during London market hours.
  2. The service has just recently made a significant upgrade to their server speeds. This will allow members to see Andy's moves almost instantaneously.

For example, here's a snippet of yesterday's feed:

08:53:14 andy: stops seen on the last test of the high, I am buying one lot of Gold here
08:53:28 andy: 1593.60
08:53:46 andy: target 1598
08:55:28 andy: taking profit here at market
08:55:33 andy: 1597
08:55:40 andy: closing stop
08:56:39 andy: may see some fix painting shortly so a pull back to 1589 would be a likely entry
09:02:47 andy: 1602 saw strong defence/ resistance but the stops above would expose stops to 1618/20,possibly see a pull back first , in the next hour..
10:11:58 andy: I am selling one lot of Gold here 1598.90 stop 1599.30
10:12:37 andy: target 1595.20
10:13:31 andy: this is a speculative A/R pivot so tight stop
10:20:02 andy: stopped

Below is a chart of the cumulative performance of "The Army" since inception back in April.

Month Perf Cum. Perf.
Apr 12 $2,810 $2,810
May 12 $5,590 $8,400
Jun 12 $7,570 $16,070

And here is the day-to-day breakdown for June:

Cumulative Performance for June 2012: $7,570
* P/L based upon each lot consisting of a ONE contract of each vehicle.
Date Gold Silver P/L *
June 1st $2,830 - $2,830
June 2nd - - -
June 3rd - - -
June 4th - - -
June 5th - - -
June 6th $170 - $170
June 7th $200 - $200
June 8th $280 - $280
June 9th - - -
June 10th - - -
June 11th $420 - $420
June 12th $380 - $380
June 13th $190 - $190
June 14th $490 - $490
June 15th $200 - $200
June 16th - - -
June 17th - - -
June 18th -$10 - -$10
June 19th $320 - $320
June 20th $490 - $490
June 21st $630 - $630
June 22nd -$10 - -$10
June 23rd - - -
June 24th - - -
June 25th -$20 - -$20
June 26th $250 - $250
June 27th $200 - $200
June 28th - - -
June 29th $360 - -
June 30th - - -
TOTAL $7,570

What this shows is that a trader who followed Andy's trades exactly (Which, admittedly, can be a little challenging sometimes. You have to be committed and paying attention.) is up $16,070 over the past 2.5 months. And this is only trading one contract, every single time. And this is also in an extremely challenging market environment. After fees and less whatever commission you pay your broker, the member is probably up at least 13Gs. Not too shabby. That's eight, shiny and sparkly gold eagles in your safe to help you survive the coming onslaught.

If you're an experienced trader and you'd like to learn more about this program, I'd refer you back to the original podcast announcing the service. It can be found here: If you'd like to register for the service, simply click this link and complete the form: Again, the first calendar month is just $100. After that, the fee is $500 per calendar month but, as you can see, the performance can quite easily pay for itself.

One other thing that members receive is Andy's weekly commentary. There are a lot of big-dollar individuals worldwide who subscribe to Andy's services simply to receive these updates. As a Turd Army regular, you get to see them, too. There is no one on the face of the planet more qualified to charge for precious metal commentary than Andy. As a 30-year veteran of London gold and silver trading, he has an extensive list of contacts and clients as well as a depth of knowledge and experience that is unmatched. If you want to know what is really going on, Andy will tell you every weekend when he posts his commentary.

Andy has granted me permission to copy-and-paste an excerpt from last weekend's commentary. Here he addresses the hubbub surrounding the "London Trader" story of June 8. ( This is the type of valuable information that members receive every weekend.

MetalsTrades Commentary - June 24th 2012
I will start by answering some excellent, member questions….
…“I came across this article yesterday, claiming the 515 metric tons dumped in the market place per "The London Trader", did not happen as they were unable to see it on the open interest. Would appreciate Andrew’s input and rebuttal.”

This is a good question and considering COT inspired waterfall selloff events usually follow a similar pattern, it is worth taking the time to follow the footprints through this specific event. This dissection will be helpful for a lot of members as this is a common and very profitable ongoing COT, (Bullion Bank), MO and should help clear up a lot of confusion amongst market participants regarding the relationship between the Comex vs. the OTC spot and physical markets.
This blogger expresses a healthy skepticism, is well measured and rational but makes a few commonly held false assumptions that I will seek to address. I will start by pasting the relevant sections directly from the blog…
………”He does not define the term “paper gold” but we can assume he means either London gold Forwards or COMEX gold Futures. This seems to be confirmed by his remark that the anonymous “Eastern buyers” will “patiently convert” their “paper gold” to “physical in the coming weeks.” I assume this means that they will stand for delivery of their contracts”…..

My response to this is No. Sovereign, CB and physical buyers in size do not buy paper gold contracts on the Comex; this refers to spot indexing in the OTC spot market in London. This is a classic case of the Comex tail wagging the much larger spot dog. Due to both leverage and the timed deployment of established and verifiable concentrated short Bullion bank COT positioning in the Comex paper market, the price of bullion is concurrently set in the spot market. This by default enables those seeking allocation of physical in size to take advantage of the resulting discounted spot prices and lock in spot purchases on intraday/month dips in the size they wish to take delivery of at an upcoming fix. This spot indexing transaction is simply an FX currency trade where the purchaser of physical is going long gold and short USD/ EUR etc., locking in the price of gold vs. that currency. Once spot XAU/ USD, XAU/EUR etc. has been purchased, the currency price for the size of allocation sought is locked in no matter how high the price of gold may rise to on the date the spot currency purchase is cashed in for physical at a bullion bank, producer or refiner etc. at that chosen days gold fix price.
Then…...” I also assume that he is not referring to naked, leveraged longs that are forced to liquidate as the price falls, due to margin calls. He explicitly said it was “the bullion banks” doing the selling of these 515 metric tons.

Let’s look at the numbers. 515 metric tons equals 16,557,634.5 troy ounces. Rounding to the nearest 100-ounce COMEX contract, this adds up to 165,576 contracts. 165,576 new contracts were dumped onto the market on June 7, according to the London Gold Trader…...”

In response, here is where a walkthrough of the event would be helpful….1st to the bones of the discussion.

There were indeed 165,555 GCQ contracts sold during the 4 hours in question, as described in the MT post in real time on the day it occurred. The selling emanated from a bullion bank and was initially instigated in the pit about 1 hour ahead of Bernanke’s speech. Although one might expect some last minute squaring/positioning ahead of pivotal news it in not normal to see short selling/new supply commence in size so far ahead of such a price moving event. With initial selling stemming out of the pit in noticeably large tranches, and as reported to me by my contacts from a name associated with a large bullion bank, this also had the intended effect of telegraphing sell intent to the locals.

Even with that information set aside, what the blogger is missing here is that almost all these contracts were subsequently covered by the bullion bank into the days pit close thereby not showing up in the closing OI #.This is a standard MO. Through concentration, creating sufficient new supply at commonly watched pivots in a very short period of time to swamp any bids distorting true supply demand fundamentals, then once the momentum is turned down, to buy back all originating short positions into freshly pitched longs and a whole array of freshly invited new shorts.

Obviously, there is always a long for every short etc. but nevertheless the equivalent of 515 tons of paper gold was sold that would not have been sold had the bullion banks not used the power of their concentration to create sufficient supply to instigate and then game carefully orchestrated air pockets for the market to do the rest of the heavy lifting. This resulted in a stair step transference of COT shorts and was conducted at the expense of, (MM, spec’s and techs), initially by tripping longs stops, then drawing in fresh short supply on the breach of very obvious technical supports. (In this case with volume through the well watched 50 & 10 DMA’s).

These progressive breaches activated stair step knee jerk momentum selling and flipped the always present ‘neutral algo’s’, (as dissected in a prior MT commentary), over to a sell side bias. Guess who was on the other side of those trades profitably buying back the newly instigated supply? The daily downward move was then consolidated with a bearish close just below the 10DMA. (Bear in mind long or short stops are clearly visible to the 2 COT bullion banks identified in the OCC reports, concurrently holding the book on over 97% of all OTC gold and silver derivatives, a market 10 times the size of the Comex. These 2 COT banks also maintain concentrated short controlling positions in the futures markets).

Now, breaking down the footprints in more detail….

Preceding the pit selling, obvious spoofing was seen which given the signature footprints had to be from a COT algo and foreshadowed mal intent. If you recall from the MT post, we saw a very strong showing at the PM fix with large allocation sought in size, yet into the fix, we saw a block order of 10,000 GCQ contracts hitting all the bids for an $8 drop ahead of the fix followed by 35,000 contracts hitting all the bids for another $20 followed by a small $5 rise into the pit close where we saw large allocation sought at 1606. At this point, some short covering was seen, looking like a bottom likely drawing in some new longs, followed by another 30K selling tranche followed by the residuals over the remaining couple of hours. There was an obvious round off of short covering of around 50K seen into the pit close. This exercise resulted in an extremely profitable trade which also opened a window to repay/rebuy some previously underwater gold leases here in London. I am very close to the physical market here and am almost certain this was the case.

Obviously, aside from my observations and sources, I verified my information with both a trusted pit contact and traders here in London; also independently I saw this from an individual who I respect, Jesse, who appears to have concluded similar observations.
Jesse comments 08 June … “One has to consider information such as this as input to be compared to other things, since we cannot directly view what the unidentified source is specifically seeing.
However, having watched the tape in real time and looked at the changes in Open Interest, it seems to be a credible description of what happened.
It also tracks closely with my own view of the game which we are in…”

I hope my sharing this with you has been helpful.

Once again, if you are an experienced trader, I urge you to consider this service. The goal is to profit by trading along and against The Cartels and then convert each monthly gain into physical metal, thereby decreasing their available supply. If we only have a handful of members, the physical effect is negligible. However, if we can get a couple hundred folks working this program...well, then maybe we could have an impact. Regardless of that, in the end, members of The Army will be consistently adding to their stacks of physical, and there's certainly nothing wrong with that.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 30, 2012 - 3:15pm

Thanks for stopping by

This is my favorite part: "Turd has turned into a shill, conspiracy theories and the like."

Good point, though, about past performance since inception. Here you go:

MetalsTrades - Past Performance

This page presents performance for the MetalsTrades service for prior months.

Figures below are based upon a hypothetical account having available $200k in margin and trading two contracts each of GC and SI per lot.

No commission fees or management charges are included.

Performance figures do not include currently open positions which as of February 28th account for a $6,070 profit.



P/L ($)


P/L ($)


P/L (%)*

Mar 11 $5,120 $5,120 2.55%
Apr 11 $5,900 $11,020 5.51%
May 11 $2,800 $13,820 6.91%
Jun 11 $4,900 $18,720 9.36%
Jul 11 $32,130 $50,850 25.43%
Aug 11 $35,800 $86,650 43.32%
Sep 11 $73,060 $159,710 79.86%
Oct 11 $13,320 $173,030 86.51%
Nov 11 $10,600 $183,630 91.82%
Dec 11 $0 $183,630 91.82%
Jan 12 $0 $183,630 91.82%
Feb 12 $7,220 $190,850 95.43%
Mar 12 $2,800 $193,650 96.82%
Apr 12 $0 $193,650 96.82%
May 12 $0 $193,650 96.82%
Jun 12 $0 $193,650 96.82%

* Cumulative P/L is based upon the initial $200k margin

And this is always good advice: "Trading Gold and silver with leverage in these conditions is not for amateurs or the faint of heart, and definitely not for people who dont have a lot of capital. Good Luck. A fool and his money are easily parted."

Jun 30, 2012 - 3:19pm

Re: War on Some Drugs

Video unavailable
Jun 30, 2012 - 3:21pm


Jack Daniels
Type Post Author Replies Last updated
Type Post Author Replies Last updated
Blog The Army Advances Turd Ferguson 32 48 sec ago
Forum topic Pailin's Trading Corner pailin 24911
1018 new
30 min 48 sec ago

Wow, nice second post. I am surprised Turd gave you the time of day.

I wouldn't have.

Good day to you sir, I said "Good Day".


Jun 30, 2012 - 3:22pm

Jack Daniels apparently

Jack Daniels apparently doesn't know how to read, as Turd has specifically said that only experienced traders should join the "army".

Bitter much?

Dagney Taggart
Jun 30, 2012 - 3:24pm

@John Galt

Flattering. I'm not sure if this is field marshal material but I would love nothing more than to make the criminals so paranoid that they destroy themselves and each other. Nevermind. They are doing a good job of that on their own.

Anyway FWIW on the subject of armies, I remember when my old man gave me a copy of the Art of War when I was younger and taught me how we defeated the British: Destroy their desire to die in a land an ocean away from home. They weren't defeated by the army. They were defeated by "angry lone nut" farmers and peasants shooting at them from behind every tree and disappearing. They refused to fight by rules. Very demoralizing. (This sounds vaguely familiar to the present and why the US has not won a war in 67 years). In short, what would Batman do? He would terrorize the criminals in a manner that they destroy themselves and each other without putting a finger on them. Small and decentralized always wins in war as it wins in the free market.

When one has the moral high ground, they do not have to win hearts and minds. When one is a brute invader, they can never win hearts and minds.

Unfortunately the British have temporarily retaken this continent using the passive means of infiltration, counterfeit script, and bogus contracts. Sounds like business to me.

Jun 30, 2012 - 3:25pm
Jack Daniels TF
Jun 30, 2012 - 3:28pm


Cool. Copied and pasted right off the site that Andy uses to promote his service. And that performance is with 2 contracts per trade to start. So cut that in half. Then account for slippage, because you will never get filled at the same prices. Then deduct commision. Stay up all night, sit by a computer during London hours and react immediately and you would still not get close to the same performance. Not to mention, I was trading side by side for a large part of 2011, and those numbers are bullshit. Cherry picked. There were periods of LARGE running losses. Losses that would get most people WIPED OUT.

Jack Daniels
Jun 30, 2012 - 3:30pm

Well, whatever. Thanks for

Well, whatever. Thanks for providing an opposing point of view for everyone to consider.

Jack Daniels
Jun 30, 2012 - 3:32pm

And furthermore

I've always been a shill and a conspiracy theorist. I'm surprised it took you so long to figure it out.

Jack Daniels
Jun 30, 2012 - 3:45pm

Not bitter at all

Ive traded metals/commodities for years, had some incredible years, and some incredible losses. Thats the game. Ive lurked since turd was just a chart technician with some commentary on the previous blog. I've found turds TA to be worth a lot more than some paid services. I've even fed the turd becuiase I found value in his site. This site now though is starting to become a comical farce. Anyone with a dissenting opinion is flamed, extremist views are commonplace. REAL traders are always looking for the other side to their argument. The market is always right. I'll go back to lurking in Pailin's corner where there is actually some REAL traders giving OPPOSING views on the markets, not fantastical stories/conspiracies about good vs evil. Closing your mind to alternative views clouds your vision.

Turd, thanks again for providing this site and avenue of discussion, I truly do appreciate all that you do. Its too bad things are taking off in a real extremist direction. Extremists are not good (dangerous) in any avenue, be it precious metals, religion, government what have you. We now resume regular programming.

Jun 30, 2012 - 4:01pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

tmosley Jack Daniels
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:07pm

If you have evidence of

If you have evidence of criminal fraud with regard to Mr. Maguire, I would request that you make it available for all to see.

It sounds to me like you couldn't hack it, screwed up a bunch of trades in the early hours, and that caused you to lose a bunch of money, thus making you bitter, and signing up to bitch and spread libel.

This website is far from the echo chamber you claim it to be. Hell, I think silver is going to ZERO, and the Turd himself thinks that paper prices are legitimate! My view is super bearish for paper, and is fully tolerated, and Turd's thoughts with regards to paper prices being influenced by physical buying and selling are so mainstream that they are practically delusional (ie he subscribes to what many including myself would call a mass delusion). Some people make with the crazy conspiracy talk, but Turd never does, and those people are pretty much always called out by someone.

Whatever. You won't be the first person who's posts I just scroll on past, and you won't be the last.

Jun 30, 2012 - 4:08pm

@Jack Daniels

Thanks for taking the time to come here and provide your views,even though you knew you would get flamed. Your input is appreciated.

Tube John Galt
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:14pm

Re: Mayan Calendar

I've said it before and I'll say it again. 12/21/2012 on the Mayan calendar simply means that the Mayans will need a new calendar!

Number 47
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:15pm

@Jack Daniels

Not sure on the up take from the european contingent here but we do number a few. Sitting up all night is not required for us. Quite sociable hours really.

Jun 30, 2012 - 4:18pm

question for board

if, as hypothesized, jpm et al are shifting ginormous long while appearing short, or at minimum appearing deceptively ambiguous, how big is the otc silver market.... could they be up to their ears long while continuing the routine visible machinations?

John Galt Dagney Taggart
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:20pm

@ Dagney re: The Art of War

The Chinese leadership also presented GW Bush with silk copies of Sun Tsu's "The Art of War" during his state visit there in 2006.

What a powerful message that was, although I doubt it was heard and/or understood.

Dagney Taggart John Galt
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:32pm

@John Galt

I hope they were audiobooks. I don't think he can read. I'm note sure who the greater zero is, B or O.

Tube John Galt
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:33pm

The Art of War to George W

That is like giving a physics book to a first grader...

33 and a turd
Jun 30, 2012 - 4:59pm

Nice stash to find

Pair of metal detector friends discover three quarters of a TON of Iron Age coins worth £10m buried in a field in Jersey after searching for 30 years

  • Coins were buried to protect them from Julius Caesar
  • Three-quarter ton hoard estimated to be worth £10m
  • Two enthusiasts searched for three decades in field in Jersey

Read more:
Jun 30, 2012 - 5:53pm

@ John Galt

When people hear 2012/Mayan calendar they need to think less "apocalypse", and more paradigm shift/zeitgeist ~ a fundamental change in the prevailing cultural norms, to something new.

Some examples for those of us that come here regularly: the way we view pm being the legitimate form of money, the rest of the world is slowly learning/recognizing the fact. Also, the US doctrine of war/oppression/conquest is being brought to light ever more clearly. Some people have felt this way for a very long time, but it is only now that there is a significant group that true productive change can be affected.

The video you posted does an excellent job of delving into that and bypassing the hollywood idiocy.

Thank you.

Jun 30, 2012 - 5:57pm


Looks like I missed a typical weird Saturday drive-by incident.

There's at least one every weekend. It's nice to see who supports it right away. Thanks

Jun 30, 2012 - 6:08pm

re: Jack Daniels

This place will eventually implode if someone (e.g., Jack Daniels in this case) cannot make comments such as he did without getting run out of town.

That kind of running people off the board about a year ago really ticked me off and if I am not mistaken, many of those doing the running off were the ones that were kicked off the site.

A suggestion for Jack Daniels and anyone else giving a contradictory opinion (and I hope we have more... I am continually looking for things out there to answer my daily question of, "Am I wrong or are the masses wrong"):

Start comments that you know are going to be inflammatory (whether they should be or not) with:

1) "IMHO" or

2) "You may not agree/YMMV, but in my experience with "X"..."

While it shouldn't be necessary, it should go a long way towards defusing knee jerk responses to something that was actually well intentioned.

I'll give you my personal example: I think Graham Summer and his PWA are worth subscribing to for the newsletter alone even though I agree with most of it anyway. I have also lost ZERO dollars and made some following his trades for the PWA (n.b., different experience with his RFOA/Perfect Trade... have made big and lost big there) but I continually see people bash him for his guest posts on ZH from people that clearly do not subscribe to him. Hell, with the RFOA/PT, Summers even waits 5 minutes from his alerts before he uses that price (as opposed to the price he got at the moment he executed) for his losses and gains. I've just never stuck my head up here to defend him because it just ain't worth it...

Anyway, hope you keep posting Jack... just stick a "I know this isn't going to be popular..." in front of it.

Again, this place will eventually implode or be a one way group think circle jerk if we flame everyone... go back and look at Jack's initial post, read it, remove/change three words so as not to offend anyone's ego, stick a "Hey, just my two cents everyone, but..." in the front, and tell me what is so wrong about what he posted?

Look at Ivars and especially Victor the Cleaner... people went from making fun of Ivars and calling Victor a paid troll to most people actually asking for and looking forward to their posts because they make you think OUTSIDE most peoples norm/comfort level... we love people like SRS and CA because we already think like them and they give us intelligent reasons to confirm our beliefs... WE NEED ALL FOUR OF THEM AND MORE OF EACH KIND.

Jun 30, 2012 - 6:10pm

And now some significant news...

IS7: It sounds like Syria just had their sovereignty and Assads future decided for them by the WORLD POWERS. Consider that for a moment.

If Russia backed away from all of this it's stunning in what it implies. I'll reserve some time to see how it plays out in reality and not comment based on this one headline but this is the type of thing over the weekend that flies under the radar and not noticed and the business gets taken care of in a low news cycle. The part about Assad being being kept in hidspalalce and unable to leave is starting to make sense if you consider it a faux house arrest or detainment. In his own country nonetheless!

I think the important part to Russia (if this is indeed true) was to act the part and go through the motions and look strong internationally and then not to be humiliated and being seen as 'losing' or weak in some manner once they conceded. This needs a little time to flesh the details out but it sounds like they've decided. I wonder what the trade off was?

Maybe the headline overstates it at this point. It wouldn't be the first time.


World Powers Agree on Set of Guidelines for Syria Transition

By Jennifer M. Freedman - Jun 30, 2012 1:13 PM ET

World powers agreed on a set of guidelines for the transition in Syria, United Nations special envoy Kofi Annan said, following talks in Geneva.

Annan condemned the violence in Syria that has taken most than 10,000 lives and said “time is running out” for the Middle Eastern country. He also said he wants to work toward a Syrian-led settlement.

“It is for the Syrian people to determine the future of the country,” Annan said, adding a Syrian solution requires“clear, irreversible steps.”

“We agreed on a set of principles and guidelines.”

Jun 30, 2012 - 6:17pm

@IS7 re: Russia and Syria...

Turning the ship around due to "loss of insurance" was the key sign for me.

As for a deal: My guess is that Russians get to keep their Med port no matter who runs Syria. After "anything to do with ABMs", having a warm water port (Sevastopol is bottled up) is probably their second greatest paranoia/issue of modern times. Hard currency for weapons was a faaaaarrrrrr distant second issue to them from the port issue.

bam rl999
Jun 30, 2012 - 6:22pm


>When people hear 2012/Mayan calendar they need to think less "apocalypse", and more paradigm shift/zeitgeist ~ a fundamental change in the prevailing cultural norms, to something new.

Is this like "Global Warming" morphing into "Climate Change"? Sorry, couldn't resist. :D

Jun 30, 2012 - 6:27pm

I always feel better after listening to Eric Sprott

Somehow I always feel better after listening to Eric Sprott

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


ps - OK - how do embed a youtube video properly ??

bam Fortinbras
Jun 30, 2012 - 6:28pm


Funny thing you mentioned Graham Summers. I subscribe to the PWA as well, simply because he thinks differently than myself. I want that balance.

Murphy mentioned Gary over at earlier today. I subscribe to him for similar reasons, in that he is incredibly disciplined and balanced when it comes to macro analysis. So much so that it puts a lot of people off. I like that.

And good post by the way.

bam GregGH
Jun 30, 2012 - 6:30pm


Just copy and paste the youtube link into the body of the message. Straight up.

Jun 30, 2012 - 6:53pm

I guess I'm just old .. even

I guess I'm just old .. even though I'm not.. Maybe it's just me . Without naming names .. the flirting going on on these last few days makes me wanna throw up in my mouth. I'm probably the only person that notices it .

Please disregard.



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