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Squeeze Play

238
Fri, Jun 29, 2012 - 10:34am

It's hard to tell just who got squeezed first and the hardest. The equity shorts? The crude shorts? The gold shorts? Nope, those short the Euro are the ones really getting squeezed today.

Take a look at this chart of the $/Euro. Yes, that's 2.5 points (2+%) in about 10 hours overnight, while the U.S. slept.

And once the ball got rolling, it was only a matter of time until it smashed into everything dollar-priced. As I type, crude is up $4.21 to $81.90. The S&P 500 is up 23 points to 1352. And, of course, our precious precious have jumped higher, as well.

And just in time, too! Yesterday in silver was pretty scary. Price hung on the edge of support for most of the day. Had the area between 26 and 26.25 failed to hold, silver would have fallen very quickly. There is still the possibility that a stop-clearing, vomit-inducing drop may materialize if the coming days but it doesn't necessarily have to. Just pay attention and don't panic IF it does.

This next chart shows you how tight things are getting in silver. There is a tendency among chartreaders to see "descending triangles" and think that they will lead to breakdowns in price. I've always thought it was a sort of optical illusion. The downward-sloping line simply has more "eye appeal" and makes you think that the downtrend will carry the day. Look, however, at the strength and duration of the horizontal base. It's much longer than the horizontal line and therefore more likely to win the day. We'll see.

One more silver chart. Here's a 12-hour which shows you the current $27-29 range. Yes, there was a foray above and the recent drop below but, for all intents and purposes, silver has been stuck in this range and basing for almost 2 months.

Gold continues in a similar, basing pattern between 1530 and 1630. If you look closely, the support for gold consistently comes in between 1530 and 1550 and yesterday was no exception. Considerable physical demand below 1550 is the key to this support level.

And just for fun, here are the 5-minute charts for gold and silver. Note two things:

  1. The initial caps for the day have been set. Gold just above 1600 near 1602 and silver near $28. Further note the significance of $28 on the daily silver chart posted back up this page.
  2. Rather than acting in tandem, silver peaked a full 20 minutes before gold. Interesting.

That's all for now. The rallies continue and isn't that fun?! Nice to end the week on a happy note for once. Again, this week's CoT will be quite interesting so please check back after 3:30 EDT as I'll be adding some comments then. Also, I recorded a very interesting podcast with John Williams of ShadowStats yesterday. I'll be posting it later today, too.

Thanks again for a great week. It has been stressful but fun. TurdTalksMetals is getting all of its kinks worked out and the initial reviews are positive so I want to thank everyone who is participating. Have a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  238 Comments

· Jun 29, 2012 - 4:05pm

I WAS EXPECTING A POSITIVE AND HELPFUL CoT. WHAT WE GOT IS TERRIFIC!

GOLD

For the reporting week, price fell about $49 and total OI dropped 4,874 to 413,618. Now, check this out: The Gold cartel net short position was reduced by 19,531 contracts to just 144,170 and a net short ratio at 1.93:1. Again and for perspective, as recently as 2/28/12, the Gold Cartel net short ratio was 2.69:1. And check out the idiot specs: Large specs added net short 13,785 and the small specs added net short 5,746. Gee, I wonder who got fleeced (AGAIN) today??? Bahhhh, Baaaahhh. Baaaaaaahhh.

SILVER

The silver CoT is simply fantastic. Remember for context that silver plunged $1.55 and OI rose by 6000 contracts on 6/21/12. Even though OI fell back 3000 on Tuesday, check out the changes for the reporting week!

The Silver Cartel decreased their net short position by 4,943 contracts. They are now net short just 12,011 contracts and they have a never-before-seen-by-Turd net short ratio of 1.25:1. Again and for perspective, on April 5, 2011, The Silver Cartel was net short 56,414 contracts and held a net short ratio of 2.69:1. Even on 2/28/12, they were net short 44,593 and had a ratio of 2.32:1. 

Remember, the final surge in the month of April 2011 was almost entirely caused by Silver Cartel panic short covering. They then realized that they were trapped and have engineered the 14 months since to buy themselves time to cover in a more orderly (and profitable) manner. They are almost finished as their net short position has now been trimmed by an amazing 85%.

​And here's one more for you: On 4/5/11, The Silver Cartel held 33,413 contracts long. This was 23.36% of the total open interest. On 2/28/12, they still held just 33,802 long but this was now 29.17% of the total OI. As of Tuesday, The Silver Cartel how holds 48,591 contracts long. This is an increase of 44% since 2/28/12 and it represents 38.51% of the total open interest.

HERE IS YOUR EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY: THOUGH A STOP-GUNNING PLUNGE THROUGH $25 IS STILL POSSIBLE, WE ARE VERY, VERY CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM IN SILVER. FROM THERE, WE WILL ALL EXPERIENCE A MOVE HIGHER THAT WILL BE BREATHTAKING.

scott · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:05pm

EU kicks the can and EVERYTHING [but bonds n dollar, of course] goes up.

i'll take the 50$ gold pop.......

but i do NOT like it when it trades as a risk asset.

course an UPtrade better than a DOWNtrade.

Eric Original · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:06pm

murphy said: "Most of yesterdays thread made my head hurt."

No shit, buddy. Sent me back to my hammock for another couple weeks, I think.

And BTW, TGIF everyone.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQpJpo5NHLrqSPFJl0Y_Kd

Alan Jackson, Jimmy Buffett - It's Five O' Clock Somewhere
I Run Bartertown · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:06pm

Offended? Me?!

No apology necessary. And I certainly wouldn't wish for anyone here to commit any unnatural acts upon you even if I was.

The Green Manalishi · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:06pm

Podcast with John Williams

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pNlMgH2p-Y

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:10pm

Ever notice the tipped pyramid at beginning of the YouTube screen? Looks like the 'play' icon.

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:18pm

Sprott - We’re Being Lied To, Even The 1% Is Having Problems https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/29_S...

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:22pm

Where Does Money Come From? The Giant Federal Reserve Scam That Most Americans Do Not Understand https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/where-does-money-come-from-... Got Real Money?

Jimmy James recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:24pm

That was pretty funny, recapture.

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:25pm

Japan’s Industrial Output Falls Most Since 2011 Quake https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/japan-s-industrial-output-fall... More important than Tom and Kate getting a divorce, no?

Jimmy James · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:26pm

I feel your pain.

EO - so Corona is your liquid gold or what?

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:28pm

Army's $5B failed pixelated uniform getting scrapped https://www.stripes.com/news/us/army-s-5b-failed-pixelated-uniform-getti...

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:30pm

Americans Are Being Prepared For Full Spectrum Tyranny https://www.alt-market.com/articles/878-americans-are-being-prepared-for... Timing is interesting...next week is the 4th..

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:32pm

Why Are We Certain that Gold Producers Will Soar? https://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Article/114057-2012-06-27-why-are-we-cer...

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:35pm

Facebook just changed your default email without your consent: here’s how to opt out https://news.yahoo.com/blogs/technology-blog/facebook-just-changed-defau...

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:38pm

(UK)Jersey's 'secrecy culture' led to my suspension, says former police chief Graham Power claims he was punished for daring to investigate allegations against some of the island's power players https://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/28/jersey-secrecy-culture

Toby Cunningham TF · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:41pm

Thanks for doing the math Turd. Seems like they might be 1 to 1 by November..... just in time for elections. Im not going to get my hopes up but this seems really good.

babaganoush2307 · Jun 29, 2012 - 4:50pm

....recaptureamerica. I noticed that this year in Chicago during the Nato summit. Had thousands and thousands of cops everywhere, plow trucks blocking off streets all the way down to the shore line at lake Michigan it was completely absurd!

Ancient · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:00pm

Thanks for the reply. The 22 years of silver reserves I referred to is world-wide, in-the-ground silver reserves, yet to be mined, from the U.S. Geological Survey. 

I agree that the Silver Institute is similar to a whore for the SUA . . .

Ted Butler says there is no more than 1B oz. of deliverable silver left anywhere in the world--probably much less by now. 

There is much tied up in silverware, teapots, etc., but that won't be deliverable til much higher silver prices.

The LBMA, COMEX, SLV and JPM have mastered a shellgame extraordinaire. I sense, based on Turd's COT report, that the shell game must soon come to its natural conclusion--with much higher silver prices.

Number 47 · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:06pm

Ulsterbank has now confirmed that normal operations will not resume on Monday as promised. There is no indication of when this will be resolved. I believe they have given up now trying to spin this as a 'glitch'.

The chief executive has given up his bonus for the year, how kind. I fear he will be losing more than his bonus. I am now going to trawl the forums for support in organising some kind of protest, I, and many others have had more than enough.

It is a shame really. Ulsterbank has 1.9 million customers. After the poor communication and lack of resolution I think this bank is finished. there will be droves leaving as soon as access to cash is restored. 6000 employees likely to lose their jobs over this fiasco and 146 more empty high street shop fronts to remind us of our economic woes. Fines and compensation likely to be awarded too.

Shorting RBS may be a nice play here but WTHDIK.

Rob Lewis · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:15pm
Silver is money TF · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:18pm

I don't know what to tell you. I have been checking out their stories for years now and my conclusions stand. I post on boards where people love to quote Debka and we have kept score, and their score is a big, fat ZERO with respect to consistency in truth or accuracy. They hit from time to time. But, half of what they say is obvious and the other half is storytelling with clear motivation to influence. They have called the start of the Israel-Iran war at least a dozen times now with certainty in the past few years. Each time it is within days, yeah sure. 

Anyways, I would like to see your proof of their accuracy since we must be reading different stories or paying attention to different details. Either way, I have no problem being wrong - once you prove me wrong. Show me something that was not obvious that they had the "scoop" on that proved true (Read: REAL breaking news that isn't an opinion on easily attainable existing news). TIA.

They are the masters of half-truths and twisted propaganda. 

ink Number 47 · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:21pm

Let's see Hester waive his head goodbye

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:22pm

Fiscal Cliff Can and Will Be Resolved: Alan Greenspan https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiscal-cliff-resolved-alan-greenspan-2103... So, based on the previous 20 years of Greenspans words of wisdom and uh, falsehoods...what the heck, let's be honest here, since he's not and hasn't been, hes FOS,, twice as brown. He LIES. So, what does the future entail? We are screwed Interesting timing they bring him out, no? After one of the biggest rallies in 2012... I stand by my call. I call BS

recaptureamerica · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:25pm

From rl999 posted list above... https://cache.stratrisks.com/wp-content/themes/editorialrecent/functions... Whether it's Hersheys inside those beautiful bricks or not, that's a nice stack!

ink · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:28pm

July 2nd Tentative date for Troika’s postponed visit to Athens

​So the troika on monday will be assessing the Greek commitments to their part of the bailout deal.

​I'd say there's a big chance the EUR will slide down again versus the dollar and so the Gold rally may fade.

Rob Lewis · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:30pm

I figured since everyone here is nice to me I'd throw in a pic of my bunker, room 4A...

(per RecaptureAmerica's link above)

Rob Lewis · Jun 29, 2012 - 5:41pm

I believe it was you that made a comment in the last couple days, something to the effect of "I can't afford to leave the country"

My interpretation was not so much the money to leave, but the expense in getting "in" to the new country.

I've recently stumbled across this site and it's pretty nifty. The links at the top may interest you, and others here looking for a "cheap" way to establish an overseas base of operations. (second passport, offshore company, offshore bank account, foreign trust, along with daily news)

https://www.sovereignman.com/

Bugzy · Jun 29, 2012 - 6:28pm

On the one hand she warns that Silver is hitting the sell stops and we need to be very very careful!

On the other hand there are major threats to self esteem. dignity, manhood, complete mind and body turmoil (you name it) even death! Via $50,000 large Silver strap on with big thrusts upward!!!

My God! This is the height of depravity, female dominant aggression and no respect at all for the male population. Perverted/sadistic /sickening!!!!!!

Please call me to discuss further, Dags. (if it pleases you)wink

Have a great weekend folks.

B

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Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

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