On The Lookout

442
Sat, Jun 23, 2012 - 12:50pm

I have a little time this fine Saturday morning so I thought I would share some observations with you.

First of all, we have to talk about the open interest changes on Thursday. You remember Thursday, don't you? The day of the big beatdown? As an aside, how many times has this now happened in 2012 alone? Anytime The Bernank steps in front of a mic, the metals get crushed. What was last week...about the 7th time this has happened this year alone? At any rate, from the Comex close of Wednesday to the Comex close of Thursday, gold was down $50.30 and silver was down $1.55. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot". Let's keep in mind a couple of things here:

  1. Price declines when there are more sellers than buyers.
  2. There are two kinds of selling pressure. Long liquidation and naked short selling.
  3. When longs liquidate, they are closing an open position. This causes total open interest to decline.
  4. When naked shorts are added, this is opening a new position. This causes total open interest to rise.
  5. If you are to believe The Cartel Apologists and Disinformation Agents, then The Bullion Banks are simply benevolent market makers who add liquidity to the metals markets by taking the other side of these trades. They are the willing providers of paper metal when buyers initiate new longs AND they are the buyers on the other side of new, spec naked shorts.
  6. (This is, of course, true and the CoT and Bank Participation Reports bear this out. The problem with The Apologists is that they stop right there and fail to consider/comprehend that The Bullion Banking Cartel may have more nefarious aims as they serve their Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ/SNB masters.)
  7. Since late February, The Cartels have been rapidly reducing their net short exposure in both gold and silver. For gold, The Cartel net short position has fallen from a ratio of 2.69:1 to a current (a/o last Tuesday) ratio of 2.08:1. That's a drop of 36%. In silver, the reduction is even more dramatic. On 2/24/12, The Cartel net short ratio was 2.32:1. As of last Tuesday, it now stands at 1.36:1. That's a drop of 73%.

So now, with these points in mind, let's assess the open interest changes from Thursday. For gold, while price was falling over $50, the total open interest change from Wednesday to Thursday was just 34 contracts. From this, what can we surmise? Clearly there were equal parts long liquidation and new shorting on Thursday. All of that selling pressure drove price down $50. The overall Cartel position was likely flat and the entire shift was within the "Large Spec" category where spec longs were dumped and spec shorts were added.

The $1.55 decline silver, on the other hand, was an entirely different event. While silver was falling, the total open interest grew by over 6,000 contracts and, at 127983, it stands at the highest level for all of 2012 and it's a level we haven't seen since last May! More on the implications of this in a minute but, first, what does this OI rise indicate?

Again, as pointed out above, a rising OI coupled with a falling price is an indicator of naked short selling. Having price fall 5% and OI rise 5% shows that the entire event was caused by new spec short selling, not long liquidation. How can I assume that it is the specs that are adding shorts and NOT The Silver Cartel? Re-read point #7 above. If this is the case, then Thursday put a significant dent in the remaining Cartel net short position.

As of last Tuesday, The Silver Cartel net short position was 16,954 contracts. They were short 64,401 and long 47,447. The difference is 16,954. (As an aside, per the latest Bank Participation Report, JPM was short 17,000 all by themselves. This means the rest of The Silver Cartel is already net flat.) So...IF Thursday's selloff was almost entirely caused by naked short selling and IF that short selling was coming almost entirely from the specs...the current net short position of The Silver Cartel may be as low as 11,000 contracts. Additionally, the balance MAY be JPM net short 16,000 and everyone else net long 5,000. Think about the implications of that for a moment.

Regardless, today the net short ratio of The Evil Empire in silver is at an historically low level. I have maintained for over a year now that the run-up in April of 2011 and the ensuing beatdown in the 14 months since has been a coordinated effort by The Silver Cartel to extricate themselves from their tenuous and extreme net short position. In late March of 2011, they were net short 55,000 contracts. Today, they are net short as few as 11,000 contracts. That's an 80% reduction and they are almost there, almost flat. The question of the day, and the ultimate subject of this post, becomes: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

  • Can silver reverse and rally while JPM battles the rest of The Cartel?
  • Must silver decline further in order for The Cartel to move to net flat?
  • Can silver decline further in the face of tight supply and strong physical demand?
  • I wish I had the answers but, obviously, I don't. I'm left to speculate and guess just like you are. One thing I do know, however, is this: Silver will reverse and it will then head much, much higher. For traders, the timing of this reversal is extremely important. For stackers, not so much. Any further dips in price should be greeted with joy as the opportunity to buy silver at these fiat price levels will not last much longer.

    However, I recognize that even stackers watch the day-to-day price changes with great interest. With that in mind, take a good, long look at these charts of silver:

    Look, I can assure you that silver is in very tight supply and it is increasingly difficult for Buyers of Size to get timely, price-efficient delivery. This condition of the physical market will make it very difficult for silver to break down through $26. Difficult, yes, but not impossible. On a very short-term basis, it's certainly possible for silver to be run through $26. There has to be a considerable amount of buy-stops under that level. "Harvesting" them alone could drop price below $25 and, after that, selling momentum could take price all the way to $22. Heck, maybe even $20.

    I tell you this not because I expect this to happen. I tell you this so that you are mentally prepared. IF this happens, it will mark the end of silver manipulation, as we've known it. A brief drop into the lower 20s would allow The Cartel to finally move to a net flat or even net long position. From there, silver will rapidly recover and soar to new, all-time highs. Of this, I am 100% certain. Therefore, IF silver suddenly falls another 20%, do not freak out and panic sell your metal. This would be the biggest financial mistake you'll ever make.

    Again, silver could and SHOULD hold the $26 floor simply because of the tight, physical marketplace. IF it doesn't, though, be prepared for the opportunity of a lifetime to buy silver at what will be an historic bottom. Price will not stay down for long, though, so you must be prepared to move quickly. Besides The Silver Cartel moving net neutral/long, there are several fundamental changes coming over the horizon for silver. Be strong and do not waver.

    In this context, we should discuss gold, too. Any set of conditions that would allow for a raid in silver would likely cause a raid in gold, as well. Do the charts bear this out? Maybe. Take a look. Like $26 silver, you can rightly assume that there is an abundance of stops below $1525 gold. This has to have The Gold Cartel salivating. Can they pull it off in the face of extraordinarily strong, global demand for physical gold? Yes, they can but again, though, they won't be able to keep it down there long.

    At it's last peak in August of 2011, note that gold broke out of it's primary channel and moved about $250 higher. Having broken down now and residing outside the channel, the risk remains that gold could fall $250 below the channel. This would take it to roughly $1400. Looking at the weekly chart, this would be a logical spot for support to appear, too. Again, I AM NOT SAYING that gold is going to fall to $1425. I am saying that it's a possibility and, if it does, this type of move would present to you an extraordinary and historic opportunity to BUY not sell. Just be mentally prepared, that's all.

    Regardless of all this, it's going to be a great week around here. The new "podcast" site is finally set to open on Monday. Besides daily audio commentary from yours truly, the site will also include:

    • Member interaction with PM "gurus" (webinars, conference calls and chats)
    • In-depth interviews of industry leaders
    • Non-moderated (except in extreme circumstances), "blogspot-style" daily thread comments

    And remember, the ultimate purpose of this new, "sister" site is to allow TFMR to stay completely as-is and grow at the same time. No fees. Never so many ads that you can't tell the content from the advertisements. A community where we all freely share and prepare.

    I hope you have a great weekend. It's going to be a fun summer regardless of what the next few weeks may hold.

    TF

    About the Author

    Founder
    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      442 Comments

    silverstool
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:05pm

    Curiouser and curiouser

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/banking/9352947/Fury-as-NatWest-bank-glitch-drags-on.html

    Comments;

    'I work for a Japanese bank and we have both our primary operational IT site along with a mirror imaged back site. Additionally, we have testing systems on which any upgrade would be thoroughly tested.

    After testing the update would be installed on the back site first to ensure correct operations before the primary systems are updated.

    Are payment systems are also run on non-stop systems which enable us to do hardware updates and repairs without a need to stop the systems.

    All the of above are a requirement of the FSA - so are you telling me that RBS aren't structured in the same way.

    I suspect there is something very much more than a simple "update glitch". RBS must have a back up site which should be a mirror image and able to take over. I therefore, suspect something much more profound.'

    bam bronsuchecki
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:08pm

    @bron

    >Re the price, every market has different levels of "depth". Wandering in and expecting to get $150m deal done in one go you are going to get scalped by traders as you've just shown your hand. In reality you would work that order during the day so as not to tip anyone off. Kindly pass that on to the rather clumsy seller of size on the Comex, thanks.

    El Gordo Stoxxman
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:08pm

    Central Banks buy Gold

    I always see where the Central Banks of this or that country are buying huge volumes of gold, but my question is "what is their source?" Who is holding all that gold that is being sold to these banks? Surely the Central Banks are not playing the paper game also.

    Magpie
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:18pm

    for all the guys here

    Please keep this handy advice where you can find it quickly.

    If you use medication for erectile dysfunction and have an erection lasting more than four hours, immediately go to this WEB SITE:

    https://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0dNI2Ge0slbxP/x610.jpg

    ********

    #47, thanks for the quick reply about the colloidal silver.


    bam El Gordo
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:24pm

    @gordo

    From Refineries and sometimes even straight from miners themselves. Central banks buy (at least lately) a lot of the annual world gold production (2500 or so tons? - can't remember).

    Tube
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:27pm

    LMAO @ Magpie

    That was funny until I puked up my dinner...

    cpnscarlet
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:27pm

    @Magpie - Yep. Deflated like

    @Magpie - Yep. Deflated like the Hindenburg.

    Slick
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:33pm

    Ewwww, not aging well. Guilty

    Ewwww,

    not aging well. Guilty conscience. What an ugly old boot.

    https://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0dNI2Ge0slbxP/x610.jpg

    AlienEyes Magpie
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:33pm

    @ magpie

    I clicked on the link just to see. My attorney will contact you in the morning. You committed an "un-natural" act over the internet as well as felony assault. All things considered, we will be asking for all of your money, all of your property and that all of your blood go to the Red Cross.
    withoutwax
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:33pm

    October Surprise!

    As forecast by the oily Soros, but also by `silvergoldsilver` and hinted at by Turd and JW, the GEAB agree that Sept/Oct is the time frame for collapse:

    https://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-66-is-available-Red-alert-Global-systemic...

    Still a few months to stack then?

    ;)

    NB I`m still trying to `get` their take on this: obviously they support the non-elected ex-GS members for Italy and Greece, in order to hold the EU/Euro together, so is the GEAB the mouthpiece for the `Sheriff from the East`? They are obviously anti the Anglo-American (Tel Aviv) axis - so far so good - but also hint at long-term planning, which is what Rothschild agrees with, democracy being too bothersome to stick to...

    Mind you, according to Fulford, we`re all going to get 150,000 each to spend, so who cares about democracy?? `sarc`

    Urban Roman
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:44pm

    Aha

    It was the first thing I guessed -- they outsourced their IT. I didn't think the management could be that stupid. When will they realize that they are also redundant, the poohbahs, the movers-and-shakers, the big wheezes of the financial "industry"? Harrumph.

    ... Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain. ...

    ¤
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:48pm

    El Gordo

    Great question. I've been wondering the same thing for awhile also.

    I haven't really come across the supply chain part of the equation yet. Mines from all over the place that have large production must have to off load their ore somewhere that allows these CB's to have that much access. Is it all a London thing where all gold goes to London and is dealt from there? And what of U.S. production and where that gold goes? Does the U.S. Treasury or Fed ever buy gold or do they just siphon it away from abroad in ways we can't grasp due to settlement of trade or UST's or military incursions or protection? How much gold does the mint buy in order to satisfy coin production? I don't know. Clearly, something big is going on concerning gold and CB's today and all the buying going on.

    Is the U.S. buying any gold at all or just using the $42 oz. inventory and selling it for $1600? I have lots of questions how this works. I'm not sure I'd like some of the answers.

    I don't know if anyone out there has a clue about where the majority of gold comes from that the CB's seem to have easy access to when buying all of this tonnage. I would love to read anything that anyone has on this. Maybe SRSrocco knows about this.

    I've wondered the same thing about silver also. There seems to be avoid in information once you get past the annual production numbers and then the story kind of falls off from there about where most of it goes and how it gets there. I need to look into this a bit more. The Mint must go through an incredible amount of silver from all of those ASE sales every month. Strategically, our Govt. must be buying or hoarding some commodities of all types if they are believed to be in short supply and technically critical in industrial or military operations. Why do they even sell it as coins?

    Where is China and all of these other countries getting 100's of tonnes of gold/silver per month from? It can't all be from London and 'Western' gold, can it? Annual production has to go somewhere and be made available in a huge way to the CB's. Is there an actual PM shortage with numbers like that being tossed around? How much silver and gold is lost and consumed in a process or one time usage (bombs/medicine/electronics etc.) from that annual production? Is silver and gold rare?

    It seems kind of secretive for such an integral and barbarous relic that they devote so much time to keeping track of it and procuring it while proclaiming it serves no purpose in todays world. Yet we hear of hundreds of tonnes being available and bought each month.

    CB dis-info campiagn of the highest magnitude or what? Inquiring minds want to know.

    QE to infinity
    Jun 24, 2012 - 10:50pm

    Re: Curiouser and curiouser

    Apparently RBS and Natwest are also screwing their call centre and admin staff, forcing them to use their annual leave for the days they were sent home due to system crashing, or to work unpaid overtime instead.

    bam withoutwax
    Jun 24, 2012 - 11:17pm

    @withoutwax

    GEAB is a French think tank, and are ardently pro-France. They favor a European Union dominated by France, because that's what Frenchman do. They are more anti Anglo-Saxon in general, which includes the UK and the United States, but also Germany as well. It's the whole French/German thing that's gone on for ages.

    I actually like their work, but they are not without their own biases.

    bronsuchecki bam
    Jun 24, 2012 - 11:19pm

    @bam CB buying

    I'd be surprised if a CB would buy directly from a refinery or miner, no way to maintain privacy. They would do it through state owned enterprises and certainly through bullion banks (plural) so the end sellers can't see who's buying.

    bronsuchecki ¤
    Jun 24, 2012 - 11:41pm

    @IndigoStar7 CB actions

    Consider these numbers from 2011:

    Mine supply - 2818t
    Recycled/scrap - 1661t
    CB net buying - 456t

    So CBs only buying around 10% of supply. Consider also that there is around 50,000t of gold held privately as investment so that would turnover as well, providing a source.

    Yes gold is a "void" of information, always has been - it is one of those assets that no one wants to reveal what they have for obvious reasons. Why would you think CBs are any different to average investor?

    S Roche
    Jun 24, 2012 - 11:42pm

    Re CBs Buying & Selling...

    Here is your guy:

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/81222115@N08/7437488838/in/photostream

    Edit: I tried to upload that pic, even created a dumb account to do it...

    Anyhoo...that is the Linked In profile of "Mikael Charoze, Fx and Gold senior dealer Bank for International Settlements"

    that ZH posted (only for MC to immediately remove all the pinked in details) which include:

    "Market maker for Central Banks...for all FX and Gold Products...Management of the liquidity for big amounts...(Interventions..."

    Those are exact excerpted quotes from MC's job description...worth bookmarking for future reference when interventions are doubted...

    bam bronsuchecki
    Jun 25, 2012 - 12:04am

    @Bron

    Thanks Bron. That was more of a question (guess) than a statement, but reading the post again, it appears that I knew what I was talking about (when I didn't).

    Edit: I threw the miners in there with respect to China, as none of their gold leaves the country. No idea how their internal market actually runs.

    bam
    Jun 25, 2012 - 12:24am

    Electronic Money

    Followed someone's link to Screwtape, and came across an interesting perspective on the advent of Electronic Money.

    [NOTE: I knew/know nothing about all this squabbling between bloggers, so this has been a little eye opening. Seems like a lot of intelligent people with big egos run slightly amok. Only thing I'm looking for out of the whole 'gold community' stuff is to safe-guard my savings, and hopefully profit a bit on the margins.]

    [2nd NOTE: If these people despise Turd and his daily input so much, why do some come to this site and comment?]

    Marks said...

    At the Mint Directors Conference - Conference of 46 Central Bank Mints in May 2012...

    ____________________ As I noodle this through, think US Government may well allow gold as a currency for transactions/buying things, as long as it is e-gold such as a GoldMoney account that uses a debit card… Really should not matter to US Government, as long as the revenue and expense are recorded and 1099’s sent for the revenue. Now the US Government may well want to ban gold coins being used, as this could still be part of an underground economy, and not reported. But using e-gold is certainly feasible, and would be similar to Ron Paul/Hayek proposal-position regarding competing currencies. (Note, IRS would still want to tax capital gain on gold, and goldmoney would have to use FIFO basis to calculate this gain, but entirely feasible with today’s computer technology). And yes, I am conveniently ignoring the Big Brother and privacy issues. ___________________ ROSS: That was kind of one of the plans that was floated. And if I could change gears for just a moment, Jim, one of the things that has been popping up and has been talked more and more about that is now coming into play is not even so much even printing currencies, it’s having electronic money. And at each of the mint conferences in the last 10 years that I’ve been privileged to attend, the electronic currency where your currency is put onto your smart phone; they’re even now printing up money that has a computer chip where you can download monies. And looking at the demographics; now, people of your and my age we like to have our billfold in our pocket and we like to pay in cash; we like that anonymity that comes with paying in cash. But the younger generation, especially in Europe and now in the United States, they don’t like cash; they don’t like to carry cash. And the mints are responding to that by developing all kinds of electronic currencies. And we saw graphs and talk about how most of the paper currencies and the coin currencies would be a thing of the past by 2025 or 2030 and it would be almost all electronic money for the convenience. And some of your younger or more techno-savvy listeners may know that you can now pay with your smart phone, you can pay with other electronic means. So that’s where it’s moving. And what that means for my industry is a lot less money is being printed, both coined and printed. And the reason that this trend is making governments happy is that would give governments more control and it would also capture the underground economy. There was a tremendous amount of talk about the additional revenues these countries would capture and would help their economies and their struggling deficits by taking somewhere between 10 and in some places 20 and 25 percent of the economies and putting them back into play for taxes because you have places like Spain where they estimate up to 40 to 50 percent of the economy is underground. So if you have to deal with electronic currencies, there would be no hiding any of these revenues. And it would also give the government great control because they could merely shut your chip off if you fell out of favor. There were lots of smiles with people in the know. [10:48]
    donnojackshit bronsuchecki
    Jun 25, 2012 - 12:35am

    @Bron

    Thanks for the reply Bron.

    Could I impose on you and ask you where you would swap Perth Mint silver bars and coins for gold mint bars and coins with the most favourable premiums in Australia?

    bronsuchecki
    Jun 25, 2012 - 12:40am
    Irene
    Jun 25, 2012 - 12:53am

    @silverstool/Curiouser and curiouser

    Yes. After 9/11, what banks didn't learn that they absolutely had to have off-site backups ready to go in the event of a terrorist attack?

    imfd
    Jun 25, 2012 - 1:09am

    I`m about to listen to...

    Michael McDonald on SGT report, he suggests that silver may go to $500, i have no idea if he is right or wrong but i do like to listen to stuff like this, it makes me smile for a while, and given that most experts have a 50/50 chance of being correct, i`ll just take the half that makes me feel better, bad news i can get anywhere, cheers !

    Silver bear of very little brain Slick
    Jun 25, 2012 - 2:18am

    Watch out! Mrs Rochester is

    Thanks for that Slick, My late and very lovely mother in law always said that by 40 you get the face you deserve.

    Watch out! Mrs Rochester is out of the Attic!

    Senseosensei
    Jun 25, 2012 - 2:30am

    Dung beetles

    I read the blog CPN and others pointed towards.

    Some random comments.

    1) i personally get sick and tired hearing of this freegold thing of FOFOA. It's a great theory that will most likely never see the day of light for the same reasons they themselves debunk silver as a monetary metal: the current powers in the world don't want it.

    2) no manipulation in silver or gold? really? I would say they are fit to join CNBC, no job interview needed

    3) i truly believe Sprott, Turk, and all the others they hinted at, believe in gold and silver. I also believe they are smart business men and want to earn a buck or two in the process. The only grudge i hold against them, if you can call it that, is that they don't come to KWN to explain to the listeners why they were wrong in their price predictions, when needed.

    4) To conclude: i believe that we are entering a unique period in time, where we, the people, are finally waking up and catch up with those that want to control our daily lives, on a global scale. To a point where we will want true change, not some papered over version of the old world. And it would highly surprise me, that once we get to the phase that we stand up and rebel, we would accept old premises afterwards, like bankers, globalization, and all the other crap. 100.000 elites want paper/electron money, and the other 7 billion will want gold, silver, and other sorts of currencies they can trust. Who will win the day is uncertain but to state, with confidence, that silver will not be part of that new world, like is happening on that blog, is plain stupid.

    donnojackshit Senseosensei
    Jun 25, 2012 - 2:37am

    @SenseoSensei

    Hope you are right, but i despair that us peons will always be controlled by a wicked few.

    El Gordo
    Jun 25, 2012 - 4:28am

    47

    I'd like to thank you for the personal reports on the banking situation. In my former life I was a bank examiner and was on site for countless smaller bank failures in the 1980's and 1990's. Of course, today's TBTF's are not really banks but are just casinos for the big boys, but I can promise you, if a bank cannot keep up with its customer accounts and pay out deposits on demand, it is broke and unable to continue in business - regardless of the excuse. I really suspect foul play rather than mere incompetence although incompetence is probably a factor in slowing down the recovery process, assuming there is one going on. And whoever had the idea of leaving these incompetents who broke it in the first place around to oversee the recovery is himself an incompetent. Anyway, thanks for the reports and keep them coming.

    El Gordo
    Jun 25, 2012 - 4:31am

    New lighting source

    For those wanting to go off the grid, where do you get those whale oil lamps - I think maybe whale oil is the energy of the future. It's naturally occurring and renewable, although I do think whales breathe and thus emit CO2. I'm not sure if they fart or not, but is they do, that would also take both CO2 and methane down a notch or two. Anyone else ready to make the switch to whale oil energy?

    The Green Manalishi
    Jun 25, 2012 - 4:39am

    Alessio Rastani

    Market Outlook: Is Spain Telling The Truth About This…?

    https://www.leadingtrader.com/public/spain-radio-interview/

    Rui
    Jun 25, 2012 - 4:47am

    Right on, Senseosensei

    I would not even define Freegold as a viable theory. To me it's just another paper fraud by bankers to perpetuate their fractional reserve scam. People who believe in FG still have faith in central planning that somehow a magical control system could be switched on to fix it all, and that's kinda sad.

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