The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

Thu, Jun 21, 2012 - 12:02pm

With a tip of the hat to Tom Petty, here we are once again. Stuck, rangebound and waiting.

Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers - The Waiting

(Go ahead. You might as well listen to the music while you read, otherwise it will be stuck in your head all day.)

So, here we are. It's now June 21 and it's as if June 1 never happened. Do you remember that day? We were all excited. The Gold Cartel had allowed gold to trade past it's 2% daily cap and it climbed almost 4%, or $58, after the extremely lousy (even after the imaginary B/D adjustments) BLSBS data. At the time, it was easy to be excited. Maybe gold was breaking out? Maybe QE3 was right around the corner?

Maybe it was simply the long-awaited spec short squeeze that we had discussed here ad nauseam. And now, after squeezing the spec shorts three weeks ago, The Gold Cartel is hustling those same, brainless algos are right back into shed. Two weeks from tomorrow, the next BLSBS report comes out and, barring any unforeseen opportunities before then, the SSS (Spec Short Sheep) will once again be fleeced. Until then, we wait. (The picture in the left was taken on June 1 and it shows an SSS get worked over. The image on the right was taken yesterday and it shows an SLS getting the same treatment.)

At the end of the day, paper metal prices are still in the same ranges in which they've been held for over 7 weeks. Gold continues stuck in a $100 range, bounded by $1630 at the top and $1530 at the bottom. Expect this to continue for a while longer. Silver, too. It's simply bouncing around between $27 and $29 while JPM waits out option expiry next week. Note that on May silver option expiry, silver closed just above $30. It broke down through $30 the next week and has been pinned under that level for the entire time since.

Alright, just two other items for today. First up, this very interesting article from Detlev Schlichter. Turdite tabberto posted this link earlier and it merits your attention. Thanks, tabberto!

Second, maybe we can help a brother out. This author is a Turdite. He sent me a copy of his book and asked me to read it. I will, eventually, but I'm a little to busy right now to give it the attention it deserves. So, I'm suggesting it to you, sight unseen. Here's how he described it in an email to me:

"Given the popularity of fictional books in recent months such as The Hunger Games, and 50 Shades of Grey (alright... that's for the wives... but it's sort of like reading the other team's playbook, no?), I thought it would be timely to release a fictional novel that pushes the themes of sound money. The basic premise of my book, The Troy Standard, describes how a man comes to realize the value in gold / silver investing and how it morphs into an attempt to create a global, metals-backed currency, the obstacles he confronts, and the eventual results of maintaining the status quo."

So, what the heck? If you're looking for a little summer reading, maybe you can help this guy out by buying his book. Anyone who does so should be sure to report back with a review when finished.

That's all for now. Here's a little more TP to help get you through your day. TF

Tom Petty American Girl Live 1985 - (Best Version)

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 21, 2012 - 11:57pm

It's Bayesian if anyone is

It's Bayesian if anyone is interested in learning

Jun 21, 2012 - 11:57pm

Who would sell real money for paper

I read most of the comments made here and agree with most of them. I agree with Mickey I don't know how long they can play this ponzy scheem out but they are going to kick the can until it brakes there leg. When I think about them printing money out of thin air it blows my mind. We are trillions and trillions in debt this can't turn out good. I will never trade real money for fiat I will give it to my kids first. There's so much corruption in are government at every level that I don't care what they say silver and Gold is worth I know it has a lot more value than they say now.

Jun 21, 2012 - 11:59pm
Jun 21, 2012 - 11:59pm

Re: Uruguay, legalizing the marivagina

Isn't that where the Bushes supposedly got that 100,000 hectare? parcel of land in case they need to 'bug-out'. Rumor has it that Kenneth Lay already resides there?

or was that Paraguay?

paddyoreilly I Run Bartertown
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:12am

Multiculturalism the answer?

this is nothing more than the blatant attempt of the EU-SSR to undermine nation-state sovereignty in order to destroy any possibility of nationalism (not inherently bad as many assume) returning to Europe and states exercising their sovereign rights to decide their future. Stalin, Mao, and pol-pot would no doubt have supported such a position. It's like saying to the German taxpayer - get with the cosmopolitan program, we're all humans, you should pay the bills of those that have spent too much - don't worry, you're not actually German anyway, that's just a fake constructed identity - refer to the previous point, we're all humans - now pay up.

Multiculturalism is a destructive political ideology, pure and simple. Refer to Samuel Huntington's 'clash of civilizations' thesis to understand cultural incompatibility.

And it was fostered upon the people by the same "we know better than you" elites who've led us down the garden path to oblivion.

National cultures are not imagined, but representations of a people. The Economic problems in Europe are a reflection of the national culture of each nation-state. The lazy non-savers vs the hardworking savers.

And the message is brought to you by the same crooks destroying the global economy with a hint of cultural Marxism thrown in for good measure.

That man deserves to rot in jail.

Jun 22, 2012 - 12:22am

Interesting read

The article covers more than just PM's.

An excerpt from the PM's section:

And gold has been dropping ONLY because of manipulation by several large Wall Street firms – who have been doing massive naked shorting in the paper gold market. Wall Street has been trying to convince the public that gold is in a new bear market, but the reality is that physical gold demand – especially in Asia – is the strongest it has been in modern history. Some Americans have panicked and sold their gold and/or silver positions in the recent decline – and will spend the rest of their lives regretting their emotional decision. But the reality is that American investors are a tiny part of the global gold market – with less than 1% of the US public investing in the metals.


The reality is that gold and silver are still massively underpriced when adjusted for 1980 inflation (when the great bull market of the 1980s peaked). To reach the January 21, 1980 closing high of $850 in inflation-adjusted dollars, as of April 2012, gold would have to reach $2514. But that is using US government “official” inflation numbers, which we know are vastly understated. Using SGS-Alternate CPI-adjusted dollars, gold would have to reach $9220 to equal its January 1980 high.

His price for silver using the SGS-Alternative CPI is on page 8 at the link. But don't ignore the pages before and after!

Jun 22, 2012 - 12:26am

AG flat AU only down a buck

The Banks are getting whacked tomorrow due to multiple downgrades and there SHOULD be a flight to safety.

bam tmosley
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:27am


Know Bayes probability theory well, as I've a degree in Mathematics/statistics.

All those things you mentioned could certainly happen, but I've also seen that TPTB have learned something since the 1933 confiscation. It's easier to steal through the back door (inflation, taxation, subsidy, etc.), than it is to take directly. And they can implement things like taxes little by little, so no one makes too much of a fuss. And taxation is the number one tool of big government. I also see a lot of these things as more likely to occur IN the US than outside of it. So, while I have some PM in the Lower 48, I hold more outside. In case things get as bad as you mentioned.

ClinkinKY TrueBull
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:33am

No way! Get out:)

guess what?

Submitted by TrueBull on June 21, 2012 - 8:25pm.

Andrea Mitchell is married to none other than Alan Greenspan


Andrea "Greenspan" Mitchell Exhibits NBC "Journalism"

Submitted by ClinkinKY on June 21, 2012 - 6:23pm.
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:44am

Bartaromo/Pento Interview: who supports stocks if fed not there

Bartaromo/Pento Interview: who supports stocks if fed not there-

Earlier Turd wrote about this video in which he thought he heard the live interview with Pento by Bartaromo and Pento saying we have to get the Fed out of the markets. Bartaromo responded -stumbling over words-well, if the fed is not supporting stocks , who is?

its near the end -just past the 5 minute mark

Great Catch Turd!

Stratajema bam
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:45am


"We are not facing remotely the same thing now as in 2008. The mechanisms are totally different. 2008 was fundamentally a liquidity crisis. 2012 is fundamentally a Sovereign Debt crisis."

You are parroting or channeling Peter Schiff's view that he mentioned a year ago where he gave the same answer as to why the gold price will not sell off during the next market event. How has that view worked out?

The mistake you are making is to assume that there is a correlation between negative news about sovereign debt (not a crisis yet) and the price of gold. There is no discernable correlation during the past year. A retrenchment of gold into the $1,400's should create a gap between the paper price and physical price that will be exploited (i.e. arbitraged) by the hedge funds. The gap will not mean the end of the Crimex.

Jim Willie would lead you to believe that gold at $1,560 would cause gold inventory to be depleted. It's accelerating purchases but not at a rate to deplete inventory. How many times have we been at this price yet inventory is not depleted. So it is lower in price we must go to aggressively remove physical from the system.

bam Stratajema
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:53am


Well, that's news to me, because I don't read Peter Schiff. And if he was saying that a year ago, his timing was poor. Gold got way too hot on the run up to 1900 and there were those out there calling that move correctly.

Depending on where it went, a retrenchment into the 1400s is not too far. In 2008, we had a move from about 1000 to just under 700. That's a 30% move. I do not see anything like that happening right now. Ergo, this is NOT the same as 2008.

Now a move from 1900 to 1375 is about 30%. But even if it made it down there (which it won't), it wouldn't be the same as 2008 either, when you had that freakin pounding in such a short time frame. It's what 10 months since the high now?

And Sovereign Debt is most definitely in a crisis. Right now. Look at Greece. Look at Spain. Look at Italy. The others are lining up daisy chain style.

I think you a reading way too much into JW there. I think if you asked him directly, he'd say that gold will eventually be depleted at $1560, but so would it at a lot of prices. It just takes time. Inventory is being depleted as we speak. But that doesn't mean it's all gone.

bam recaptureamerica
Jun 22, 2012 - 12:53am

@recapture RE corzine

Here He is. Wouldn't ya know. He appears to be doing just fine.

courtesy of:

Jun 22, 2012 - 1:10am

now we're getting a little demanding.... IMF's Lagarde Demands Action to Avert Threat to Euro The International Monetary Fund urged the euro zone on Thursday to channel aid directly to struggling banks rather than via governments and called for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, saying the future of the euro was at stake...... "If necessary, unconventional measures should be used. This means giving consideration to non-standard measures, such as the re-activation of the SMP, additional LTROs with suitable collateral requirements, or the introduction of some form of quantitative easing," the report said.......

Stratajema bam
Jun 22, 2012 - 1:11am


"And Sovereign Debt is most definitely in a crisis. Right now. Look at Greece. Look at Spain. Look at Italy. The others are lining up daisy chain style. "

I believe it is negative news but not yet a crisis. The press and PM pumpers are grasping it as a crisis but it has not yet reached that level. That is why so many on this forum are confused about the price of gold in light of the news.

Jun 22, 2012 - 1:51am

RE: Tonight's charts

Don't buy at these levels, you fools. Today's action was impulsive down, and different than the chop we've been dealing with over the past month. So the notion that we're continuing in a range bound pattern is foolish.

$26 isn't going to hold this time, even if we get a bounce over the next couple of days - the macro conditions are horrendous and getting worse, and we have one more big flush coming in this correction. The $26 area is the last line of support before we drop into the low $20s. I'm saving most of my dry powder till we get there ( thesis is that silver and gold bottom out for the year by mid-July).

Jun 22, 2012 - 2:00am

@Gold Buffalo re: silver leaves

Harvey is referring to contracts still standing for delivery of physical metal despite the volume traded and the decline in price. One line of thought is that COMEX price raids serve the purpose of getting contract holders to sell for cash instead of taking (now lower priced) metal bought when the price was higher. The thinking is that COMEX inventories are not sufficient to satisfy more than a small portion of expiring contracts, thus one of the aims of price manipulation is to nudge/entice/force (via margin requirements) their holders to sell/roll contract over, and not be exposed to 'COMEX breaking' (e.g. openly settling contracts in cash at expiry) by not being able to deliver on contracts standing for delivery which have deposited the necessary cash to receive delivery bars.

Jun 22, 2012 - 2:25am

$1,000 Idea

Yeah, you know, like a million-dollar idea, just a lot less.

I'll start a small business and charge people 1oz Ag for the service. By the time the taxes are due, I won't owe much in fiat, since Ag will be back down to $7/oz.


Jun 22, 2012 - 2:38am

Ten EU countries told to improve hen cages

completely irrelevant story, but just goes to show that the people of Europe really do need all those extra EU politicians... to think of all the good the world would have missed out on were it not for these crusaders of 'peace, love, and the socialist way,' - is enough to bring one to tears.

Ten EU countries told to improve hen cages B

or this... which considering the current climate, just confirms they are all mad.

EU court: Workers sick on leave can get extra time off

Senseosensei Stratajema
Jun 22, 2012 - 2:44am


I believe it is negative news but not yet a crisis.

I guess it all depends on what your definition of crisis is.

The vast majority of the working class in Greece is deeply underwater. Suicides, debts, food and energy shortages. Spain, ditto. With unemployment figures between 25-50%, without a single sign of a recovery anytime soon. With bank runs, where people collect more than a billion dollars a day.

The economy is somehow still working, but you need customers who can pay your bills in order to keep your business or company afloat.

Jun 22, 2012 - 2:54am

You think gold is manipulated?

Okay. But the article linked to below discusses a far larger manipulation in U.S. Treasuries. If the author's beliefs are true, then it would be the biggest financial scam in the history of the world. Yet, I believe it because I have a deep distrust of the government.

Jun 22, 2012 - 2:55am


Don't buy. Sell. Get out of PMs. We are all fools for listening to charlatans who are misguided/deluded at best, and probably trying to rip us off. The fiat system will survive, as it always has throughout history. Paper money in hand is a great rainy-day option, but we really all should be rushing to the ironclad safety of bank deposit and that old ultimate safe investment - Treasury bonds. There is no manipulation of the metals, let alone the global financial markets. Even if there were such a thing, those behind it are surely too powerful to stand against -- hang your head, stay on your knees and pray for mercy. The global economy will work its way through this rough patch, like it always has. There are no constraints of resources, capital, capable workforce or anything else standing in the way -- prosperity will soon be here again. We simply have not given central banks and our outstanding civil servants in government leadership -- not to mention the stalwart pillars of finance and industry -- enough time. We've been faithless, nay, downright antagonistic toward our benefactors and rightful guardians.

Why didn't you say so before? When it might have helped? Where, oh where were you here:

You know what? You've convinced me. I now see the error of my ways. This whole foray into trying to protect assets through holding sound money has been a colossal blunder. I've already signed up for my appointment to remedy the situation, and take care of this irrational obsession.

Hmm... Wait. That might be too mild a solution -- who knows -- I could be tempted again by the siren song of all those wild-eyed, smooth-talking snake-oil salesmen that dragged me down this road the first time. No, it's probably best to go with more drastic aversion therapy.

But wait. While there is still a vestige of the original tendencies, curiousity, rationality, seeking to find cause and effect -- there is still a chance, no matter how small, that I might be led back to this path despite the phobia, aversion and nausea. What to do, what to do... Aha! I've got it! Total hard wipe of the entire wetware between the ears, that should do the trick!

Oh no. That's STILL not enough. It's no use. The reality of the world around me, the actual physical input of things plainly, directly affecting me through the senses, through first-person experience. It will eventually lead me to ask questions, even if I were to start over from scratch. I almost forgot about that. How can I get around that, to ensure that I never put myself through this again...

Eureka! By Jove, I've GOT IT! Foolproof solution. All will be well. Goodbye, my deluded friends. I've found the solution. I will find ultimate peace.

Jun 22, 2012 - 3:06am


Tour de force, mon ami.

TrueBull ClinkinKY
Jun 22, 2012 - 3:13am
El Gordo Stratajema
Jun 22, 2012 - 3:44am

Biggest financial scam in history?

The biggest financial scam in history has been pulled by none other than good old Uncle Sam on it sometimes enemy, China. The USA has fooled all those Chinese people to part with their labor, their natural resources, their rare earth metals, and their finished goods all in exchange for its promise to pay at some time in the future to the tune of trillions of dollars. What a scam.

Number 47
Jun 22, 2012 - 4:38am

@el gordo

Not so sure about that, that labour and rare earth provided mostly tat and toys. Meanwhile they are buying up all the gold and silver with the profits.

What would you rather have, smart phone or smart money?

Jun 22, 2012 - 4:49am

@ Number 47

...especially since rare earths aren't exactly that rare any longer...

Number 47
Jun 22, 2012 - 4:51am

Banking issue update.

Well, things are still the same, more than ulsterbank and natwest now. Anyone paid to other banks is now without wages and they will not be fixing it before the weekend. This could get nasty today.

IT will be next week before Ulster Bank manages to fix its collapsed computer systems, resulting in further chaos for tens of thousands of customers.

The unprecedented information technology breakdown -- which has resulted in payments to thousands of people failing -- has now entered its third day.

Ulster Bank has now admitted that the problem, which is the biggest banking IT failure the country has ever seen, won't be fixed before the weekend.

Ambulance drivers, nurses and home helps were among 40,000 staff in the Health Services Executive (HSE) who were left without wages yesterday because the health body uses Ulster Bank to distribute salaries. Workers in private-sector firms were also affected.

Furious care workers jammed the phone lines in the HSE wages department after they were left facing the weekend without funds.

Anyone who gets paid weekly or fortnightly from the HSE was due to get their money yesterday but this did not happen.

And thousands more people due to be paid today also face being left without funds.

The Department of Social Protection has also confirmed that 29,100 payments it makes every week have been impacted by the IT crash.

Ulster Bank has apologised for the technical breakdown and promised to rectify it as soon as possible. It denied its systems had been hacked.

The fault means that any credits or debits to customer accounts have not been recorded since Tuesday night.

The bank said 100,000 people had been affected by the collapse, but banking experts said far more were left unable to use their bank accounts. Una Dillon of the Irish Payments Services Organisation, which arranges payments between banks, said it could be next week before the problems are rectified.

The Irish Banking Federation insisted other banks would accommodate customers who end up overdrawn because their employers use Ulster Bank to pay them.

Those hit by the IT breakdown include:

? Those who do not bank with Ulster Bank but whose employer uses an Ulster account to distribute wages to the workers' own bank accounts.

? People who bank with Ulster Bank and use their online bank account to pay bills.

? Irish people who work abroad but were unable to get access to their accounts.

? Ulster Bank customers may not be able to use their Laser or debit cards if the bank thinks they have no money in their account.


Now, thousands are set to go into arrears on mortgages and not have direct debits and standing orders paid.

Chairman of the Consumers Association Michael Kilcoyne called yesterday on Ulster Bank not to impose penalties and charges on anyone who ends up overdrawn or in mortgage arrears because the IT systems crash meant records were not being updated.

The bank said: "If a customer received a charge in error as a result of this issue they will not be financially disadvantaged."

And if a mortgage repayment can't be made, the bank said it would make allowances for this.

Ulster Bank said its automated teller machine (ATM) services will be fully operational over the weekend, and 80 branches will open until 7pm tonight to assist customers. It will have 60 branches open tomorrow morning.

Branches were not open early this morning, helpdesk not taking calls till 9.30, the local forums are blazing with raging customers and they have decided to keep branches open an extra 2 hours! How generous. Some Irish wag went to his branch with an invoice for 12.70 euros, (the standard fee for insufficient funds) and demanded they pay him, the manager was not amused. Won't be long till this kicks off somewhere.

I actually warned them about this weeks ago, my account balance was not updating and so I thought I had more money than I did. I spoke to three people, one a branch manager and they told me it was my fault. They thought I was trying to get the 4.40 euro fee waived. Idiots, from what I understand this could have been nipped in the bud then if they had passed it on to the I.T. dept. Instead we have millions affected. All because of 4.40 they didn't want to give me back.

I have confirmed others were also having the same problem weeks ago. I am going to pursue this all the way. This is an epic failure that could easily have been avoided. That manager should be sacked. He even made me wait 1/2 an hour for the privilige of telling him. You couldn't make it up.

Number 47
Jun 22, 2012 - 4:57am

More banking fallout.

Spoke to a friend who works in a supermarket, they are having massive issues with customers unable to pay with debit cards, produce is being left at the tills (checkouts) to be returned by irate staff who are having to deal with irate customers. This is getting to be a tinderbox, I noticed queues at the petrol station this morning too, I'm guessing the same problem except it would be harder to return the goods.

Starting to appreciate that we would have about 24 hours in a currency collapse before all types of hell and violence were unleashed.

Jun 22, 2012 - 5:21am


On the way into work this morning saw a newspaper headline of "NatWest 'Bank Holiday'" and thought - is this how it ends...

Probably is merely an IT problem but I doubt they'd break the habit of a lifetime and be honest from the outset if le merde is finally meeting blade, no?

Intriguing though, just adding to the growing spidey sense tingle (though that is probably just the ag foil hat on too tight).


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4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
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