The Peripatetic School

Uninformed & Assuming

I hope that most of you recall the structure of logic that you should have learned in school: Do you remember the Syllogism—the thought formula that leads us from truth, through the available data to sound conclusions?

Given a major premise (truth), and considering a minor premise (fact), we can conclude that…

  • All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore, Socrates is mortal.
  • Lawbreakers try to escape the police. OJ Simpson ran from the police. Therefore, OJ broke the law.
  • Men have wider shoulders than women. Michele has wide shoulders. Michele is really a man.
  • Normal trading patterns reflect human psychology and news events. Gold charts are erratic. Therefore, human agency is unduly influencing the price of gold.

It is the “givens” that cause problems, not the logic. Our certitude of the major premise determines the likelihood the conclusion is true.

Burn me once … or learn from mistakes

Back in those heady days of plus-forty silver, I used to tell myself that only I wish I had been enlightened just a few months earlier. My actual “date of enlightenment” was about September 15, 2010. Oh! I would have bought lots more silver at $18-24 per ounce in the Fall of 2010. As it was, I had just discovered metals and was picking and choosing, looking for sub-spot pricing, wondering if it really would go higher. Well it did. Then it went back down...
 

Dumping the Banksters

We just had a taste of how good life can be without banks. Damn, they run up the costs! Then they front load the credit contract so that the majority of interest is paid up front over the term. If you buy & sell every 3-5 years, you hardly pay down the principal and build equity. But all-y’all know this, so I’ll end the mini-rant.

My problem is that I have contractually obligated myself to them by purchasing real estate with their fiat. And the system has not collapsed as I was expecting it to a couple of years ago when I bought my home. Moreover (controversy warning), I am beginning to think it is foolish to count on an economic collapse to get me out of the contract. It has been my plan all along to pay off the home with silver proceeds, putting extra fiat into metals instead of paying down loans. Perhaps that is not the most sure plan either...

Holding Down the Fort

The rhetorical vision of the precious metals markets in 2010-2011 brought a distant dream near to us with arguments for silver strength coming from various directions, including a couple of cartoon bears. As Max Kaiser jumped in and repeated “Crash JPM” with a chorus of other hawkers chanting “silver to the moon,” and “parabolic,” we watched the price rise to nearly 50 before illegal actions put a cap on the rally and dashed our visions of future wealth as AG might have shot up into multiple hundreds per ounce. 

Size Matters

Are you well endowed with a large stack?

This past weekend Gamble put the question to everyone, “How much physical is enough? I thought I was good until I saw a picture of someone's stack, I think there was over a hundred ounces!” First of all, it is never good to compare your metal endowment to pictures others... you know?

Something doesn't smell right about this recovery

My wife and I watched Margin Call the other night. As the film wound down to a close, Jeremy Iron’s character (not sure if he was Blankfein or Dimon) explained to Sam, who thought it was wrong of them to sell the toxic mortgages to their clients,  that crises like this were normal. That particular scene has led me to conclude that the movie was allowed to be made to explain to all the sheep that 2008 was normal, we will recover—just another crisis like the ones we have always weathered. Is that our take-away from a good movie—that financial crises are normal and we should expect them? That we will always recover? More propaganda!  What Hollywood failed to mention in Margin Call was that the FEDs actions to create a recovery didn’t work this time.

Cynicism or realism, hope or action

The most highly esteemed world-leader, the benevolent, the all-wise Obama gave a speech on July 10, 2014 in Austin Texas—a national stronghold of conservative ideology. The things he said were quite revealing about the state of our nation and the world. Unfortunately, what he said was founded on highly debatable “facts.”  The speech can be read as what we in the field of rhetoric call an “apologia”—a speech in defense of one’s character or actions. Why not take a closer look (if you can stomach it) and see what Obama really said. I suspect it will harden your resolve to continue preparing your life and family for the new economy, as it has mine.

Conversion to Physical

A conversion from loving fiat to loving precious metals is like converting from one radical religion to another. It has to be complete and it could cost you much. Those who talk too much about their conversion to family & friends are often alienated. But, you are literally saving your soul from the hell of poverty and destitution…that is if you believe in societal collapse, or even economic impoverishment as a nation. With conversion to precious metals, you cross a line. You are putting your labor-wages into true money that will survive whatever hell may be approaching us.

(I wonder if those guys in purple & red signify bankers? I guess we'll have to ask Dante.)

The Dependent

On September 14th, 2008, Hurricane Ike had moved inland across the US, bringing heavy rain and 70 mph winds to our home in Ohio. How ironic that the hurricane ripped across the nation as Lehman was imploding? The power went out for a week. That night we lit candles, got out the Coleman stove and heated up canned food for dinner. The kids loved it, scurrying all around the house setting up candles, feeling like we were living primitively. What if, instead of that hurricane, the Lehman collapse and a lack of TARP would have “cut the liquidity power” to the world financial system? A fictional, “what if” retelling of that week provides me with a bit of perspective.

Catharsis, Reflection and Opportunity

I am feeling some urgency this week.

I was a sheep, putting my money where the MSM said was the wise place to put it. Oh God! I wish I had not stopped collecting coins as a kid. Then I would have been in tune with the real value of precious metals and perhaps, just perhaps, I would have awakened sooner. Thank God that I did wake up! 

But wait! This no time for catharsis, reflection, remorse, or regret! QE has bought us all some time and opportunity. Markets are not dead and gold is still suppressed and available. The economy has not collapsed yet. So there is time to sell what we will not need in the new economy and buy gold, keeping the things that we will need.

Syndicate contentRSS - The Peripatetic School