The Peripatetic School

In late October of 2016, I foolishly posted my reasons for voting for Trump on Facebook for all my friends & family to read. They did. And they proceeded to beat the hell out of me, or stand by and watch. No doubt most thought, “Don’t know what’s wrong with that boy.” “He’s gone off the deep end”

“What did gold do last night?” what is gold gonna do today? Will gold move higher, lower, or run flat? My best friend calls me each week and asks, "Where is gold heading?"

How mysterious it all is… when gold rises or falls. No wonder you have to be a “wizard” to understand the markets.

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The other night, I could not sleep, and as usual I went downstairs, stoked up the fire, and began to let my mind wander, digging out my subconscious concerns so I could face them. And as usual, my 22 year old daughter, who is a night owl, wandered downstairs and said, “Hi Dad. Can’t sleep? What’s on your mind?” She plopped down on the couch next to me and we started talking.

In 2007, my wife and I owned 8 rental properties and a home in the Midwest. We were up to our ears in debt, but the budget worked due to incoming rents. The recession punched our rental business in the nose. All of our equity was wiped out in a few months. Every property was “under water.” Even our home was under water. As the housing market slowly recovered from 2009 to 2016, we were able to finally sell all the property and move back West closer to family, but we still booked a loss on every single one. Four years ago we left behind our 5 acre paradise and moved into a condo in a college town. Now I am ready for a different kind of life.

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I recall back in the wild days leading up to May of 2011 that a number of regulars on the old blogspot site began to warn of a downturn in silver. They were nearly shouted off the discussion boards with some blunt words. This place was a bullish as it gets and I watched the AG price rise up through the 40s with greed and glee. But the bears were right, and those who took the warning seriously and hedged their stacks did not regret it.

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Only a fool boasts about their stack to friends. Yet, we want to encourage friends & family to stack. But if I tell a good friend, and he casually mentions it down at the pub after a few beers, I better be prepared.

When the muse visits, one must start writing.

Here are some late afternoon musings I hope will make this 3-day weekend pass more thoughtfully. And maybe, Craig will feel less pressure to crank out a post in the early morning to explain what is going on.

It is always good to slow down and analyze.

A funny coincidence occurred recently—yet another week when the Fed is hinting, signaling, screaming (but probably lying) that they will raise interest rates. A colleague asked me if I would review an article she has written for an encyclopedia on research methods. Her article explains “Evidence-Bassed Policy.” So I’d like to muse about the FED’s decision-making methods here in this short essay, and contrast them with the theory behind their stated rationale.

Traditionally, when one's character is impugned, one must defend themselves publicly. Traditionally this is done either through a duel or a speech. As much as some of us might love to see a duel, we’ll have to settle for talk. Traditionally, the impugned person would deliver that speech (advised by a PR team), but today it usually an underling as advised by that same PR team. So what are the Democrats doing to save face and recover their honor after revelations that they have colluded with the media to rig their Primary Election process?

Hint: It's certainly not the right thing .

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About 20 years ago I was working at an Intel Plant in Albuquerque NM on a construction crew. At lunchtime each day, many of us would leave the plant and drive a mile to one of the fast food places up the road. Often we would be a few minutes late coming back. You know what happened next. A general contractor superintendent got pissed off, counting minutes and multiplying by hourly wages. They “reacted.” They made a new rule: Anyone who comes back from lunch late will be fired.