Turd's Blog

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

A Monkey Attack

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 - 10:35am

Ahhh...it reminds me of the good old days. Price does just fine for a while but then is suddenly and deliberately attacked by The Monkeys of London. It used to happen three to four times per week but, over the past few years, The Monkeys have seemingly been absent. But they're still there, as...

Data Week

Monday, June 3, 2024 - 10:22am

It's going to be a very busy week of economic data. It kicks off today with the manufacturing sector PMIs for May and it concludes on Friday with the latest BLSBS. In between, there are all sorts of other datapoints that will wiggle the markets but, best of all, there are NO GOONS as the "quiet...

Charts and CoTs

Saturday, June 1, 2024 - 10:21am

It was a busy day of moving for me and it was a busy day of chart painting for The Banks in one of the most egregious events I've witnessed in quite some time.

You saw it, too, so there's no need to ruin a Saturday by rehashing it. Suffice it to say, it reeked of desperation....a...

Stagflation Deepens

Friday, May 31, 2024 - 9:53am

We've been discussing stagflation as the ultimate economic outcome for four years now. My first recollection is from June of 2020, in the aftermath of the Covid "emergency stimulus". It seemed certain that stagflation was an eventuality and now here we are.

And why wouldn't stagflation...

Who Leads Whom?

Thursday, May 30, 2024 - 9:46am

After a drop late yesterday and a couple plunges in Shanghai, the question today is "who leads whom"? Did Comex/Globex trading force Shanghai lower or did a drop in Shanghai exacerbate price weakness in CDS that began yesterday afternoon?

Before we try to answer that question we need...


Wednesday, May 29, 2024 - 10:22am

Another day. Another dip in London as The Machines sell digital PMs on rising interest rates and a rising POSX. Another bought dip in New York as price charges back higher. What the heck is going on? I think you already know the answer.

At least you should know the answer because we've...

A Holiday Treat

Tuesday, May 28, 2024 - 10:23am

No, it wasn't fresh watermelon and it wasn't homemade ice cream, either. Instead, we were treated to a holiday treat of a surging silver price yesterday while the US markets were closed. And now, after a sharp beating at the London open this morning, both CDG and CDS are charging higher again...

Not The Week We Had Hoped

Friday, May 24, 2024 - 10:43am

Last week ended with Comex Digital Silver breaking out of its 4-year price range and moving above $31/ounce. Though the early week showed signs of promise, strong price capping and a deliberately-timed margin hike have served to forestall any advance and restrain price.

In the end, it...

Crazy Daze

Thursday, May 23, 2024 - 10:28am

Today, we are once again reminded that we are blessed to love in interesting times. China is surrounding Taiwan. Russia is seizing US assets. The US PETUS is mentally deteriorating before our eyes as a hotly-contested election looms. And Shanghai silver is $4/ounce higher than Comex as the CME...

So What Happens Next?

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 - 10:16am

We've arrived at the mid-week and the price of Comex silver is almost exactly where it was at the Globex close back on Friday. So now the question becomes...What happens next?

Can Comex silver move forward from here and break out of this little bull flag and blast higher into the end...