Turd's Blog

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

Change Of Tune

Wednesday, October 7, 2020 - 10:23am

Yesterday was a lousy, bitter and angry day. That's no way to live. Especially not in times like these where so many events are conspiring to make you feel lousy, bitter and angry. Fortunately, today is a new day and it's time to adjust the mojo.

If you're wondering....Yes, of course,...

Powell Today, Minutes Tomorrow

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 - 10:36am

That title reminds me of an old joke my Old Man used to tell. "Did you hear the latest Mexican weather forecast? Chili today, hot tamale!"

And so we await some market-moving headlines. First up in a few minutes will be the JOLTS job openings. This was always Mother Yellen's favorite...

A Green Week During Golden Week?

Monday, October 5, 2020 - 10:28am

If you're a long-term member of this site, then you likely recall that precious metals prices tend to struggle during the Chinese Gold Week holiday. For this year, Golden Week began last Thursday the first of October and it concludes this coming Wednesday. How will we fare this year? So far, so...

Only In October

Friday, October 2, 2020 - 10:51am

As the month of October begins, does it really surprise anyone that Trump and some of his staff have tested positive for Covid? I mean, seriously. It's OCTOBER, after all, and it's an election year! The only questions concern what might come next?

So we'll see where this all goes over...

"Stimulus Deal" = "Trade Deal"

Thursday, October 1, 2020 - 10:51am

Remember last year, when every single headline that included the phrase "trade deal" sent the algos into a stock buying frenzy? Well that is so 2019. Now the key phrase is "stimulus deal". Possible deal? The POSX falls and the DJIA and CDG rise. No deal? You get the opposite. But one thing...

Wacky Wednesday

Wednesday, September 30, 2020 - 10:57am

Jeez, Louise. What else would you call today after the events of yesterday? But we'll try to take it on and get back to business.

First of all, I'll just leave this here and dispense with any other "debate" commentary:...

A Green Extension

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 - 10:12am

In last night's podcast, we discussed the likelihood that the POSX would fall farther today and test the 94 level for support. That is precisely what has happened. So now, with Comex metal prices green again today, we wait to see what happens next.

Once again, this wasn't difficult to...

Green Day

A nice way to start the week.

Monday, September 28, 2020 - 10:38am

At least for now the Comex metals are trading higher as the POSX falls back from the technical resistance levels we discussed last week. Is this the start of a new trend, a bounce or just a fake-out? All of that remains to be determined.

And it's going to be a long week, too. As...

Wrapping A Long Week

Friday, September 25, 2020 - 10:13am

Sheesh. What a difficult week this has been! After the "not dovish enough" reaction to the FOMC last Thursday, things had seemingly stabilized one week ago today. Seemingly. Apparently not!

But it is what it is and there's not much we can do about it. If you've spent any time at all...

One For The Record Books

Thursday, September 24, 2020 - 10:23am

Wow, what a week it has been. It was just one week ago that, in the post-FOMC reaction, the investment world suddenly decided that Powell hadn't been "dovish enough"...as if $120B/mo in QE and ZIRP through 2023 was suddenly "hawkish". But that was the perception and now here we are.