TF Metals Report Blogs

An Inauspicious Start

Tuesday, September 3, 2024 - 10:43am
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18

If you were able to listen to Friday's BwT audio, you may have noticed my concern for how this month might play out. I'm not expecting a crash or even a significant decline. However, after six consecutive green monthly candles, don't be surprised if September ends in the red.

And we're...

August Ends

Friday, August 30, 2024 - 10:12am
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15

The trading month comes to a close today. We have the final PM Fux of the month as well as monthly close for both CDG and CDS. As I type, we're on track for green monthly candles in both but there's still plenty of day left to worry about.

The big and primary news of the day was the...

Q2 GDP Revised Higher

Thursday, August 29, 2024 - 10:21am
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15

Seriously. A number that was already way above expectations got revised even higher this morning! LOLOL! But, whatever. It is what it is and, with that, we've successfully navigated the drilling down of expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut next month. That's now behind us so we can move...

A Sea Of Red

Wednesday, August 28, 2024 - 10:54am
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12

A bounce from those 13-month lows in the POSX had led to a selloff across the commodity sector today and the entire board is red. Is this the start of a rally in the POSX and sustained pullback in commodities? Probably not. It's likely just a bounce. But this does make the reaction to Friday's...

August Comex Option Expiration Day

Tuesday, August 27, 2024 - 10:59am
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11

Yes, it's that time of the month again. Today is the day that August options on Comex price and expire and Thursday is the day that the front month Sep24 silver goes off the board and into "delivery". As with every Comex option expiration day, you must expect price management into the pricing...

Finally Back At Turdfork

Monday, August 26, 2024 - 8:34pm
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It has been a long day but it ended with good news and a return to Turdfork. In the end, I didn't miss much but here's a new thread with a quick update of the charts.

The best news of the day is that LT#2 is officially out of the hospital and feeling great. This, of course, is a great...

Toward Month End

Monday, August 26, 2024 - 10:16am
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11

They say that, as you get older, time flies so quickly. As a rapidly aging 58-year old, I'm quite certain that "they" are correct. Case in point, this week brings another round of Comex expirations and end-of-the-month chart painting? Didn't we just do this a week or two ago?

Not only...

Jerry The JHole

Friday, August 23, 2024 - 9:01am
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18

Oops. That title should read " Jerry in JHole ". My bad. But, whatever. In our annual late summer ritual, the investment world sits upon pins and needles today in anticipation of Jerry's keynote speech at The Fed's Jackson Holedown central banking conference. What will he say...

Another Day In The Barrel

Thursday, August 22, 2024 - 11:00am
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12

It’s bombs away today on Comex as rates and POSX move higher. Could word of Jerry’s Jhole speech been leaked? Maybe. We’ll never know. But a 50¢ rally in the POSX has wrought all sorts of price damage in the first two hours of Comex trading today.

And there’s no news driving the rally...

Wednesday Chart Update

Wednesday, August 21, 2024 - 4:40pm
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18

It has been a somewhat volatile day for our “markets” with two important news items being released. First came that anticipated slash of the cumulative BLSBS jobs data and then, this afternoon, we got the minutes to the July FOMC. The good news is that both bits of news served to reverse Comex...