Across The Board

Palladium and platinum lead the charge higher.

Fri, Jan 17, 2020 - 10:30am

It is another good day....and strong start to 2020...for all metals, not just gold and silver, as the rallies in platinum and palladium continue. And you know what they say about rising tides and boats.

Let's just dive right in. Here's the board as I begin typing:

Obviously, the key standouts are platinum and palladium. Let's start with platinum as it's probably the most important for now. And why? Because platinum has been beaten down for so long that any signs of life are encouraging for the entire sector. Additionally and as we pointed out a few days ago, you can't help but notice the similarities between the charts of platinum and silver...both short and long term.

Let's watch to see where old "Sylvia" finishes the week. For the front-month Apr20 contract, it looks like $1030 or so is a level to watch.

And here's another look at the plat-silv overlay:

Turning to palladium...I've not seen an update from David Jensen yet on today's London lease rates but yesterday they hit 21%! This is undoubtedly a sign of physical stress and this physical stress is driving price. We've written about this on multiple occasions over the past two years with the theme being that perhaps...PERHAPS...palladium could be the "magic bullet" that draws attention to, and maybe even brings down, the entire over-levered, digital derivative pricing scheme.

Here's David Jensen's tweet update from yesterday:


London #Palladium lease rates big step move up today:

1 Mo. 21.67%
3-Mo. 17.34%
6-Mo. 12.12%
1-Yr. 8.45%

Supply is breaking.#fintwit #oott #market #stocks #finance #Crypto #BTC #gold #palladium #oil #wti #platinum #commodities

— David Jensen (@RealDavidJensen) January 16, 2020

A word about those lease rates....That's an annualized rate and the leases are repayable in METAL. So, for the sake of simplicity, a 21% one-month lease rate is roughly 2% for the month. This means that if I have to borrow 1,000 ounces from you for my immediate delivery needs, I have to repay you 1,020 ounces a month from now. Can you see how this can spiral out of control at some point?

However, this does NOT mean that the system is breaking RIGHT NOW. This also does NOT mean that palladium is going straight up to $5000/oz. My sole interest here is the supply drain and run on physical. Can it eventually draw attention to the similarly structured LBMA/Comex precious metals markets. We'll see. For now, this is sure moving fast. UP over 6% today!

In economic news today, US housing starts inexplicable soared to their best levels in years...all while consumer confidence slipped and industrial production continues to collapse. NET/ real impact on the PMs.

OK, I am supposed to be on vacation today so it's time to wrap up. Eric was also supposed to be on vacation today but we still took time to record the usual weekly wrap-up. Here's the link:

Below is Eric's fish that he mentions in the call. Also below is my view as I recorded the call.

As I close, I've got CDG back to $1555, which places it down $6 on the week. CDS has been washed all the way back to $17.95 after a pre-Comex high of $18.18. That's disgusting. What a frigging scam these "markets" are. I think I'd better take the rest of the day off before my head explodes. Here's the board as I close:

Please be sure to check back later today for another special podcast with an exploration CEO. And then check back tomorrow sometime for a new thread with the weekly charts and CoTs. Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 18, 2020 - 1:46pm

The smell of poverty!

When we were kids, everyone had some kind of a job. Picking strawberries, raspberries, blackberries and pealing bark to sell. We mowed lawns and stacked fire wood. We saved our nickles and dimes for Saturday night. We walked seven miles or grabbed a ride along the way. Getting into the double feature show was only 35 cents. The bad part was walking seven miles home in the dark if you could not find a ride.

Some of us had inside plumbing, some a party line telephone and few had a black and white t.v. set. When we were 16, we were able to wash dishes or pump gas along I-5 and make up to $1.50/hr.. Oh those were to good times and my steady girlfriend only lived one mile from the service station. (Current wife).

Almost everyone was poor except for the family that owned the grocery store and tavern. Our wood stove worked well and the can house was full. When the Columbus Day storm destroyed the roads and power grid, 1962?, we were set to survive. Those who had freezer did lose much but not one person was hungry or blamed global cooling.

Oh how I wanted to run from the poverty of those days. Bail out of town, with nothing but a bag of clothes and an old $175 car. Never looking back, working two jobs and the shackles of poverty left behind, the smell of poverty gone forever,!

We visit with many, in our bug out location, and I find that I still have a nose for the poverty, creeping across the state. I can smell it, discern it, and know where it leads. We have spent the last 50 years insulating us from those days. I have told the wife: "If I die first, do not even bury me in that county that we escaped from". I would still feel the effects of the needs.

When you live in an area of great needs, you can spot it instantly. If we have eyes to see, we are blessed and he who meets those needs is the salt of the earth. jmo Jim

Jan 18, 2020 - 1:19pm

Every common question of how

Every common question of how the site works is posted in the FAQ:

Jan 18, 2020 - 12:57pm

Owned by someone

The way i understand it the bond holder (central banks in this case) is the issuer of credit. The bond issuer is the borrower. The bond holder is protected by law (hence what i said about banking and law being the tools for total control). I agree with zman that the bond holders (central banks) are not stupid and also that there is collateral involved. If a consumer can not pay their debt they lose a car or a house to the creditor. If a corporation cannot pay it's debt then it will lose it's holdings to the creditor, if a country can not pay its debt then the creditor has the power, through law, to collapse the ruling system of that country through monetary means. It all translates to the creditor having the power to force the debtor to do it's bidding and more issuance means more power so i think they will be happy to continue the credit issuance in any form necessary until their goals are achieved.

Jan 18, 2020 - 12:24pm

Carbon dioxide

I wonder how significant the impact is of cutting down huge swaths of trees in the amazon and other places because that vegetation is not there to convert the CO2 into O2.

Jan 18, 2020 - 11:15am


Thx Matt

Jan 18, 2020 - 10:52am

"Owned by someone"

This is the terrible assumption that The Elite who hold most of the debt (bonds) are stupid and are going to get screwed at some point, not gonna happen. They aren't dumb, they choose to own the debt because they control the whole system. The bondholders make the rules and since the money to buy the bonds was stolen from the working class in the first place, it's a no lose proposition.

The Elite aren't looking for a currency alternative because they control tax, fiscal and monetary policy. Every bond is backed by collateral of some sorts, these people aren't dumb, they know exactly what they're doing and they're doing it very well.

When was the last time you heard of a bond default? Let's say the consumer gets into trouble and we see defaults in consumer debt, what is going to happen? The Fed will bailout the banks and life will move on, nobody will even notice.

History is not a good source for what is going on today in my opinion. It truly is a new world and it's difficult for most to understand. There's a reason why The Elite don't want to hold hard assets in this environment, it's because they create all the policies that dictate where the money is going to flow. In other words, these are NOT the markets of old and it's almost silly to still call it "markets" in the first place.

Jan 18, 2020 - 9:51am

It is more manevolent than that...

allenb, the present monetary system employed around the planet was designed to fail, and the central bankers, their minions, and/or any rank and file observer of history recognizes it.

We are now at the hyperbolic collapse phase due to simple math, exponential growth of credit, and the reciprocal debts you discussed. 'Trillions' in digital wealth, debt, and promises now reside on the books, much of it not idle; but OWNED by someone. Zman supposes that all these someones are going to hold on or hold tight and maintain status quo. But history proves otherwise. The Trillions number loses real world meaning due to six orders of magnitude larger than the real world units of currency running real world economics. As fractions of it leak out of the financial house of cards, it cannot be absorbed into the real world without creating massive inflation. Look at the Bullet Mustang, just sold for $3.7 million! Obviously an individual of the '1%' is looking for a currency substitute, and the problem is their digital wealth cannot be pulled into the real finite three dimensional world. This is the function of Gold. As Gold is hoarded, Silver follows because technocrat middle class will not act on Gold until it is far out of reach, and they'll commence to grab for the poor sister.

Consider the present conception that if another $Trillion is added to debt or credit, that it is all orderly and relative to the size of the prior balance, but this is not mathematically possible. Most world economies have crossed the Rubicon and will never grow or earn their way out of their present debts; the monetary system is now locked into an exponentially growing debt and death spiral. We all see this. Beneficiaries worldwide will do what their predecessors have always done through history: they reach 'ah-ha' moments and seek a Hedge... perhaps JP Morgan's stealthy decade long accumulation of physical silver is an institutional scale example of front running this fact?

Jan 18, 2020 - 9:32am

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Jan 18, 2020 - 9:21am

Bitcoin prediction made in 2018

This Bitcoin price movement prediction was made in will be amazing if this current BTC rally follows this path....

Jan 18, 2020 - 9:16am

I Just Reread the JPM Article by Butler posted 17 JAN @ 11:22 am


Comml's added 18,906 longs & 12,644 shorts (6262 net longs).
O.I up 11,026

I have been told by an anonymous source they have heard yells of Giddyup emitting from JPM HQ.

Here is the COT report

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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