Into Year End With Gold And Silver

Please review this free, public post.

95
Mon, Dec 30, 2019 - 12:32pm

With just one, holiday-shortened day to go, it appears that Comex gold and silver will actually finish 2019 with "the best annual gains since 2010". That was a bold forecast when we made it back in January. That it has turned out correct brings more relief than satisfaction.

As we move to wrap up 2019, here's one last look at this year's primary guide. Recall that we had "The Generally Accepted Narrative" in 2017 and "The Three Themes" of 2018. This year, we expected the year to be similar to 2010 and laid it all out here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/9151/2010-9

What kind of gains were we expecting? Given the stout chart resistance at $1480-1520 gold and $20 silver, those levels seemed logical targets. While prices matched or exceeded those levels earlier than expected (in early September!), they subsequently fell back and left many folks scrambling and scared that a deep plunge was coming.

At TFMR, we held firm. We expected a low near $1440 in November and price got to $1445. We then expected a December rally and we've certainly seen that, too. The hope was that we could still finish the year in that $1480-1520 range...and here we are!

(Again, though, for your host this comes with more relief than satisfaction. After spending 5+ years with price below $1360, it was rather audacious to predict a sudden breakout in 2019. My trolls would have been relentless in their criticism had I been wrong...and I would have felt somewhat foolish, too. So, frankly, I'm just glad that the year is over.)

Next week, I plan to write up a lengthy "roadmap" post for 2020 and we'll make it public then. As you might imagine, I expect another good year for the Comex metals. No, it very likely will NOT be 2011+9. But extended gains in the metals will promote significant fiat-making opportunities for anyone wishing to play along and this will be a major focus in the months ahead.

For today, let's just take stock of where we are heading into the new year. For Comex Digital Gold, price is at the very top of our projected target. On the charts below, you can see the significance of the $1480-1520 price range...and you can also see the current Bank effort to cap price at $1520 into year end.

Of course, The Banks will continue to fight us every step of the way in 2020 and this will have an impact on the continuing rally. In just the past month alone, they've added over 100,000 additional contracts to the total contract supply (open interest). Through this more than 15% dilution in the supply of contracts, The Banks have been able to contain the price gain over the same time period to just 4%. Expect the non-constrained Banks to continue to create more contracts (taking the short side and feeding them to Spec longs) in 2020.

If you don't understand this process, please see this simple and straightforward explanation that we wrote in April of 2017: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8252/econ-101-silver-market-manipula...

Comex Digital Silver is also encountering stiff resistance near $18. Though a close at this level tomorrow pegs a 16% gain for 2019, we should all expect better performance in 2020. Again, we'll write about that next week but, for now, besting $18 and then $18.50 holds the key to a return to $20. From there, the next target will be $22. IF WE CAN GET ABOVE THERE in 2020, then the extremely difficult resistance of $26 will come into view.

In summary, 2019 was a very good year...provided you were a part of TFMR and NOT a part of the mind-numbed mainstream masses who listened to The Banks and their sycophant media...all of whom expected interest rate hikes and plunging gold in 2019. As 2020 begins, you're again being told that "all is well" and that "the Fed has things under control". However, all is NOT well and The Fed does NOT have things under control. Recognizing this will allow you to see some out-sized gains in 2020...if you plan ahead. Part of that planning should include membership at TFMR. You can learn more here: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe

Happy New Year to all. Rest now and relax. However, as the calendar flips, be prepared for a wild and volatile 2020.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  95 Comments

chudson
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:33pm

First

Oh yea

GOT GOLD ???

MetalustAur
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:34pm

Golden opportunity

To wish you all a Happy New Year 2020

RickshawETF
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:38pm

Bronze?

Whew! Sneaked onto the podium . . .

Stack on!

Dec 30, 2019 - 12:43pm

audio trouble today

Could not get a clear connection with The Jackass today.

We are going to try again tomorrow.

silverfox43
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:45pm

Bonds and Dollar Red

Craig,

Thought you might have mentioned that both are having tough days. Probably no surprise, no Fed in repo market today.

ratioarbitrage
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:48pm

Gold has done it as well

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCY00/technical-chart?plot=LINE&...

The spread between the most-traded futures contract and cash gold has tightened, as I just pointed out has also happened in SI:

EDIT:

Just to say that the GC chart actually shows what appears to be a gap upward in tightness - a discontinuity in the average spread between love of contracts and love of metal. The only possible explanation I can see for this given fairly stable prices is that someone has just removed a very large amount of metal from the offer side, or placed a very large request for metal on the bid side of the market.

This goes to precisely the offset between contracts and physical metal in the headline article.

SI is below; I posted on it below an old article. It is also tight again, which has occurred very rapidly after its 9% price rise.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/SIY00/technical-chart?plot=LINE&...

In SI it is for the second time and the metal has already been up 9% off its lows, not so for GC. This is an interesting year end.

MrOnline
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:53pm

Pullback

Turd, do you expect a small and short pullback from here?

WingsofGold
Dec 30, 2019 - 12:53pm

Added to the stack

ordered a 2020 1/10 oz gold Kookaburra. 30th anniversary issue. Only 15,000 minted. Got a silver kook also. From the doc @ SD Bullion.

Wishing all turdites a Happy and Prosperous New Year!

mike97
Dec 30, 2019 - 1:04pm

Thanks Turd - Good year of blogs and podcasts

Your forecasts have been great and you helped me/us through some tough times.

I never miss a podcast and find most of them quite entertaining and informative.

Your favorite non-believer pundit, Moriarty, has some interesting things to say about 3 of my favorite juniors: Irving; Lion One; and Novo.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty123019.html

AgstAger
Dec 30, 2019 - 1:21pm
Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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