On with X22 Report

72
Thu, Dec 26, 2019 - 2:55pm

Last week, I recorded a segment with Dave at the X22 Report. It was a wide-ranging discussion and it's particularly timely given the strong rallies we've seen in the metals and miners since it was recorded. If you have some time, you should be sure to give it a listen.

This was actually recorded last Thursday but just released today. There's a TFMR coupon code discussed at the end of the call, too, so please feel free to send the YouTube link to anyone you think might benefit from listening.

For today, another strong rally that began last evening...just like Monday and Tuesday this week. We were also helped along by a strong 7-yr treasury auction which helped to keep a bid in the bond market. As we discussed last week, the apparent easing of the year-end REPO crisis may help bonds to catch a bid as the calendar flips, too.

The POSX eased lower today, too. This is another trend that may further benefit our ongoing PM rally in January.

As for that ongoing rally...We may have found a level here where "someone" would like to restrain things a bit. See below:

However, we're also due for a breather as CDG is now up $33 on the week. This makes it a little overbought in the short term. More importantly, though, recall how important the $1520-1525 area is to The Banks. We will always encounter stiff resistance there and we may be seeing it now, too. Then consider the blatant and disgusting naked contract issuance at present and you have a recipe for a stall and/or pullback for a few days.

Just Monday and Tuesday, The Banks (HSBC) created over 22,000 new CDG contracts, driving the total OI to a massive new alltime high of 748,737. How many more have they added today?? So, putting this all together, that 5-minute chart above isn't so surprising.

And then, when you consider that we've stated since January that "2019 would see the best gains in the PMs since 2010", the chart below isn't surprising, either. Comex gold is now up over 18% YTD. Very nice.

The Mar20 Comex Digital Silver is also seeing an open interest surge as it's price hit a high of $18.13 today before rapidly falling back to below $18. Regardless, it's still up 77¢ on the week and looking to set itself up for a continued rally in January.

And one quick note regarding the shares. They've had a great week, too, but the reaction to today's intraday PM weakness leads me to believe that we are still being driven by daytraders and NOT the institutional spigots that we expect in 2020. Why? Check the immediate selloff that followed the mid-day drops in CDG and CDS. This is not the typical behavior of long-term investors. It is, however, the normal behavior of quick-buck artists who react to any sort of stimuli.

That's all for today. For Friday, there will not be a morning update but there will be a regular, Friday wrap-up podcast.

TF

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  72 Comments

glenno321
Dec 26, 2019 - 3:05pm

For the GOLD

Now to read

Dec 26, 2019 - 3:06pm

re CDG OI

The CME criminals are truly shameless.

Why don't you discuss how/why the open interest is created?
Maybe mention which parties are short and which are long?
How about the higher margin requirements you just imposed on The Banks?
Perhaps discuss the paltry amount of gold in your approved vaults?https://t.co/GH7DW45WlK

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) December 26, 2019
RickshawETF
Dec 26, 2019 - 3:15pm

Could it be . . .

Silver? Oh, yeah!

Stack ON!

Marcus
Dec 26, 2019 - 3:36pm

good interview

Fractional reserve fiat & fractional reserve gold. The bloated ghost of money (fiat) resting atop a miniscule grain of real money (gold). The fractional reserve shenanigans are everywhere!

Here's a guy I find entertaining and humorous (and informative). No, he has nothing to do with metals or economics or anything else we discuss at TFRM. He simply rants, generally, about political shenanigans in Canada, so any Canadians here might also enjoy this.

Angry Canadian Dude is BACK and he is Furious - December 26 - WEXIT EDITION
deltajent
Dec 26, 2019 - 4:46pm

Short Squeeze

Did anyone else happen to notice on the Tuesday podcast picture that Chevy Chase seems to be getting the benefit of a short squeeze?

allenbdeltajent
Dec 26, 2019 - 5:23pm

Short squeeze

I must be getting old. I missed that one!

mackvorkian
Dec 26, 2019 - 5:58pm

Terminology

Craig.

I listened to your recent interview with Andrew Maguire. Could you please explain the entire situation so that a guy with a grade 8 education can understand it? Could you please dumb it down and put it together in 1 place in the simplest of terms?

Can you please lay it out step by step? Can you define your terms and explain any following acronyms? You might expect the guy on the street to know what these acronyms mean and what they mean. They do not.

Even the smartest guys that I know are not really sure what the term "Repo" means let alone understand it. i.e. Chris Martenson interviewing Grant Williams. One things is clear to me. There is a huge problem. When you have fiat (define fiat) currency (paper) printed dollars, the only thing that keeps a huge unpayible debt from blowing up in all our faces, is CONFIDENCE. The Fed (define the Fed) knows that its just a matter of time before this thing blows up and they are doing their best to forestall it. In the meantime, thru leverage and margin (what do these terms mean - is it really possible to control 500 ounces of Gold with 1 ounce of Gold?) the banksters are making a killing on Gold and on the stock market. What is a p/e ratio? How can sane person believe that Netflix is a viable investment with a p/e ratio of 107.6 when the TV industry is averging 14.3?

And what about the Fed with its cut rate which is enabling the big players to make huge profits while the guy on the street is living paycheck to paycheck and cannot withstand an unexpected expense of $400?

As a previous guy mentioned, can you explain open interest?

Harvey Organ puts up some important info, but he never really spells out the importance of many of the points that he is making. His rants are "Greek" to all but the initiated. He lays out way to much info to the point where it has become useless to the common man. But, somebody needs to translate what he says so that the common man can understand it.

Could you explain leverage? Can you explain the role, purpose, business, activities, goal, M/O, raison d'etre of banks like JP Morgan? The guy on the street thinks that a "bank" is where you save your money, cash your checks and get loans. Tell us about what these huge banks do. And tell us about derivatives, what they mean and how Deutsche bank figures in here.

As we know, the silver market is minute, tiny, very small. But, the guy on the street has no interest in it. But, the guy on the street who gets a clear understanding of the situation will exchange some of his paper for physical. Why is the gold to silver ratio important? Is there manipulation of the price of Silver and how would breaking this manipulation change things?

It is my view that education is the first step. Education in the simplest possible terms and the simplist possible way.

My view is that when the populace demands physical silver, the price will rocket to where it should be.

The key, imo, is to help the guy on the street understand that his financial life is dependent on getting and holding physical Silver. Make it simple for him to understand this.

canary
Dec 26, 2019 - 6:36pm

This morning Moriarty gave his top two picks for 2020.

1. GFG Resources (GFGSF)...up 25% today.

2. Hannan Metals (HANNF)...up44%.

I bought GFG Res.

Stevediva
Dec 26, 2019 - 6:59pm

this rally may have legs if it continues into january...

Dont thinkwe will have big selloff if we make it to january....instituional money should pour in next week. at least for miners...

selloff will wait until february...sam as last year. IMHO

Marcusmackvorkian
Dec 26, 2019 - 7:01pm

why hold silver?

1964 average gasoline price= 30¢/gallon (3 silver dimes)

2019 average gasoline price= $2.55/gallon (25½ crap dimes)

Current value of 3 silver dimes today=$3.90 or 1½ gallons of gasoline.

There you are. Three silver dimes have not only held their purchasing power through the years, you can also buy more gasoline for the same 30¢.

http://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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