Here Comes CGP

It's time for ghouls, goblins and Fed Goons.

Wed, Oct 30, 2019 - 10:29am

With Powell and his presser just four hours away, I guess its no surprise that the chart pattern we've been following all month has played out just as expected...with price wedged into a corner that The Banks hope to shatter this afternoon. case you need a's the date of the October FOMC fedlines. News of another 25 basis point fed funds rate cut will hit at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chief Goon Powell and his press conference at 2:30. The only potential drama? Will someone have the courage to ask CGP about the REPO/QE/Liquidity Issue? We'll see.

In the meantime, here's another look at the chart from October 3...when we first projected that this pennant would likely contain price all the way until today:

And now here we are. Four weeks later. Do you actually think that this sort of chart appears by accident and randomness with the timing of the closing pennant coming RIGHT AT a news event like a much-anticipated FOMC?

So I guess we'll just wait to see what happens at 2:00. However, I can't ever recall a clearly painted chart pattern or MA placement that actually resolved in OUR favor. So be on the lookout:

Now on the bright side, we have the chart for Comex Digital Silver. While it's possible that it might be shellacked this afternoon too, this chart actually looks OK. If we can just regain a toehold ABOVE the 50-day and $18...and then stay there for a few days...this chart will start to forecast another stab at $20. So watch CDS this afternoon, too.

The only other item worth discussing today is the ridiculously and overtly manipulated US Q3 GDP number that was released this morning.

First of all, keep in mind that the +1.9% number that's reported is the "real" or inflation-adjusted number...and you know how grossly under-reported US inflation is. So, if the stated inflation rate was even just 1.0% higher, then this real GDP number would have been +0.9% instead of +1.9%.

Even worse, the BEA is obviously screwing with the internals again in the hope that no one will notice or care. See this link from ZH:

By stuffing the "Recreational Goods and Vehicles" category, the BEA was able to turn a real +1.6% GDP into the reported +1.9% and this flipped the headlines from "disappointing" to "exceeded expectations".

And how do we know that the BEA is doing this? Check the boots on the ground! The RV industry is clearly suffering in the US due to the tariffs and sharply falling sales. Many manufacturers are struggling and are being forced to lay off workers. So, do you trust the actual people making and selling the RVs or do you trust the .gov?

It's all just MOPE and SPIN, as Santa used to call it. The day is won by controlling the headlines and the algos. And then, when the 2nd and 3rd revisions are lower and back to the 1.6% level, no one will notice or even care as the focus will already have turned to Q4 with the plate-spinners having bought themselves another 90 days.

OK, that's it. Now we wait. I think we all suspect that another fed funds cut is coming...but you never know. And we have no idea of what will in the fedlines and what CGP will mutter in his presser. About the only thing we DO know is that he'll be wearing a purple necktie.

Have a fun day.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 30, 2019 - 10:36am

Well I'll Be Damned

1st Keep Stacking

Island Teal
Oct 30, 2019 - 10:40am

2nd or 3rd

2020 options

Oct 30, 2019 - 10:48am

Tulsi nails it again

She and I disagree on nearly every public policy issue. However, she has incredible courage to speak The Truth regarding geo-politics and war.

Erdogan has been helping ISIS/AQ for years. He has denied this but is now openly using militias of "former" ISIS/AQ terrorists, exposing him for what he really is: a radical Islamist megalomaniac who wants to establish a caliphate with himself as the Caliph — the supreme ruler.

— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) October 30, 2019
Oct 30, 2019 - 10:54am

If you've been around here for a while...

...then you know that Turkey and Erdogan is something I've followed closely for years.

The devil Erdogan has worked diligently to wipe out and reverse all that Ataturk put into place in order to keep Turkey prosperous and democratic after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Knowing this, when I saw Ataturk at Madame Tussaud's in London back in 2016, I had MrsF snap this picture.

"Losing" Turkey to Islamism and dictatorship will have massive geo-political ramifications for decades to come.

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:05am

and this needs to be included today

We all knew at the time that Epstein was murdered. The man simply knew too much about the rich and powerful. He could NOT be allowed to testify. Note how quickly the story was dropped and note that ZERO effort has since been made to find his accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell.

Anyway, this independent coroner is quite certain that he was murdered. And why is this important? It is NOT a democrat/republican/Clinton/Trump thing. Instead, it a TOTAL CORRUPTION AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS thing.

J Siefert
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:05am

Dollar Vigilante on Epstein Island

The First Independent Media To Invade Epstein's Island [Share Before Taken Down]
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:09am


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:09am


The gift that keeps on taking.

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:12am


Not sure exactly what is counted in "Recreational Goods and Vehicles", but I assume it isn't all what we colloquially refers to as RV's, but would include a whole range of vehicles including ATV's. ATV's are the discretionary purchase of the day in my neighborhood, especially "side-by-sides", which clog our back roads on weekends as they aimlessly put-put around the countryside.

Angry Chef
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:26am

Just a clip of Barry admitting to training ISIS

They're a number of Countries that have their hands in this ISIS thing. Including America, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Germany, France, Britain, Canada, UAE, Bahrain. But I recall protest in front of Congress when Obama had proposed sending troops to Syria. Almost a million people showed up to protest. Largely not covered by the MSM. So the decision was made not to send troops directly into Syria. Two weeks later ISIS shows up. The plan to use radical Islam against ruling powers in the ME actually dates back to Kaiser Wilhelm and Germany. The ability to send individual Countries troops to fight War's for the Banksters and the MIC has become Politically unpleasant as bail outs and bail in's. So the solution is mercenary forces to achieve the goal of regime change and constant War. So even though our troops have less involvement. We still pay for it in taxes and collateral damage.

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Nov 12, 2019 - 10:36pm
by vonburpenstein, Nov 12, 2019 - 9:53pm
by zman, Nov 12, 2019 - 6:52pm