Here Comes CGP

It's time for ghouls, goblins and Fed Goons.

Wed, Oct 30, 2019 - 10:29am

With Powell and his presser just four hours away, I guess its no surprise that the chart pattern we've been following all month has played out just as expected...with price wedged into a corner that The Banks hope to shatter this afternoon. case you need a's the date of the October FOMC fedlines. News of another 25 basis point fed funds rate cut will hit at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chief Goon Powell and his press conference at 2:30. The only potential drama? Will someone have the courage to ask CGP about the REPO/QE/Liquidity Issue? We'll see.

In the meantime, here's another look at the chart from October 3...when we first projected that this pennant would likely contain price all the way until today:

And now here we are. Four weeks later. Do you actually think that this sort of chart appears by accident and randomness with the timing of the closing pennant coming RIGHT AT a news event like a much-anticipated FOMC?

So I guess we'll just wait to see what happens at 2:00. However, I can't ever recall a clearly painted chart pattern or MA placement that actually resolved in OUR favor. So be on the lookout:

Now on the bright side, we have the chart for Comex Digital Silver. While it's possible that it might be shellacked this afternoon too, this chart actually looks OK. If we can just regain a toehold ABOVE the 50-day and $18...and then stay there for a few days...this chart will start to forecast another stab at $20. So watch CDS this afternoon, too.

The only other item worth discussing today is the ridiculously and overtly manipulated US Q3 GDP number that was released this morning.

First of all, keep in mind that the +1.9% number that's reported is the "real" or inflation-adjusted number...and you know how grossly under-reported US inflation is. So, if the stated inflation rate was even just 1.0% higher, then this real GDP number would have been +0.9% instead of +1.9%.

Even worse, the BEA is obviously screwing with the internals again in the hope that no one will notice or care. See this link from ZH:

By stuffing the "Recreational Goods and Vehicles" category, the BEA was able to turn a real +1.6% GDP into the reported +1.9% and this flipped the headlines from "disappointing" to "exceeded expectations".

And how do we know that the BEA is doing this? Check the boots on the ground! The RV industry is clearly suffering in the US due to the tariffs and sharply falling sales. Many manufacturers are struggling and are being forced to lay off workers. So, do you trust the actual people making and selling the RVs or do you trust the .gov?

It's all just MOPE and SPIN, as Santa used to call it. The day is won by controlling the headlines and the algos. And then, when the 2nd and 3rd revisions are lower and back to the 1.6% level, no one will notice or even care as the focus will already have turned to Q4 with the plate-spinners having bought themselves another 90 days.

OK, that's it. Now we wait. I think we all suspect that another fed funds cut is coming...but you never know. And we have no idea of what will in the fedlines and what CGP will mutter in his presser. About the only thing we DO know is that he'll be wearing a purple necktie.

Have a fun day.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 30, 2019 - 11:31am

Jesus god...

please give us a BREAK. That chart looks awful. Any divine intervention to please help us NOT get crushed for the 5th time the past 2 month? All this talk of this being the best year since 2011..its been a terrible year. Miners..especially juniors are trading like gold at 1300. Man, please god/jesus/universe i WISH this ONE time we do not get crushed

but we probably will. :(

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:41am

Royal Gold

down 5% on no news. I can’t find any news at all why? Does anyone else out there know or see any news on that?

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:47am

If I ran the FRB. Tulsi gets Katie Hill'd

I'd move $500 billion in REPO money to the RV industry to help Loseabago and Thor manufacture 250,000 RVs set up to house hundreds of thousands of homeless people everywhere in the US.

Nothing says CGP love's ya than the gummint providing every homeless person with a 35 ft $250,000 diesel pusher Class A motor home.

I'm in. Make mine a Mercedes Pleasure Way or Navion Sweeeet!

$500 billion!!!! GDP goes up 4%. Problem solved

Tulsi's gonna be a real thorn in Hillary's side when she makes her third run for POTUS.

I predict Tulsi will get the Katie Hill Treatment.

Arkancide would be too obvious.

With fake media AI software we'll see perfect vids and pics of Tulsi In flagrante delicto with senators Cruz and Marco at the Wild Lotus Massage Spa and Baths in Miami Fla. Happy Endings were had by all.

This ad was paid for by Marco 'Foam Boy' Rubio.

This message was approved by the RNC.

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:48am

Some positive signs for PMs

10 year slipping below 1.80

Dollar sliding

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:48am

The last time the charts

resolved themselves in our favor with any consequence was in July-August 2010...

None of us knows whether the present chart paint is a set up of the shorts as it turned out to be back in 2010, or another inducement to bomb the longs. Odds favor a bombing based on all that has transpired; which keeps retail fearful and flat.

However if the FED is still lender of last resort, and the Banks are again in such bad shape that $100B /day Repo is required; they need a spark... then what would a headfake smash-turned-$300 Gold rip breakout do for the Banks?

COT- Record open interest; held by whom??? I don't think it really matters whom is long or short when all that they need is a massive point move in something which they feel is securely locked down to generate Alpha returns. The 'loser' in this charade will just get their Futures Chips cup refilled behind closed doors, and the 'winners' will be officially recapitalized.

If a few small fish cash in a few coins on the ride, hey that's trickle down economics for you, lol. We must assume that they will play the PM card again, with hopes they can smash at a later date, as in 2012... Maybe the SGE link to Comex Futures was part of the preps for this next round of Three Card Monte?

They win again and the game continues if enough players cash in their PMs for Casino Chips and stay in the game.

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:58am

shorting gold as day trade

Shorting gold as a day trade, but just a small short compared to my mining portfolio. So also a small hedge for today. Stop loss for the day trade at 1503.

Gasivs Buttox
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:59am

Recreational Goods

Like Honda generators and all such things during large fires, storms and floods?

Oct 30, 2019 - 12:03pm

time for a contest?

it's been awhile Craig. Something like tomorrows close. AU+AG

I'll start. 1492.40

Kakistocracy. Love it. Lol

Oct 30, 2019 - 12:10pm

Silver is in an Accelerating Pitch Fork.

Silver is now in an accelerating pitch fork & its indicators are bullish. We will have to see if the bankers are able to break the bottom of it today. If they do, we'll have to see where the price finds support in the lower pitch fork.

Oct 30, 2019 - 12:24pm


... move along, no biggie... just yer regular programmed fuck-whack-a-miner for the purpose of face-stomping sentiment 'into the curb'.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
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11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
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10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
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10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
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9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
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9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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