Here Comes CGP

It's time for ghouls, goblins and Fed Goons.

56
Wed, Oct 30, 2019 - 10:29am

With Powell and his presser just four hours away, I guess its no surprise that the chart pattern we've been following all month has played out just as expected...with price wedged into a corner that The Banks hope to shatter this afternoon.

So...in case you need a reminder...today's the date of the October FOMC fedlines. News of another 25 basis point fed funds rate cut will hit at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chief Goon Powell and his press conference at 2:30. The only potential drama? Will someone have the courage to ask CGP about the REPO/QE/Liquidity Issue? We'll see.

In the meantime, here's another look at the chart from October 3...when we first projected that this pennant would likely contain price all the way until today:

And now here we are. Four weeks later. Do you actually think that this sort of chart appears by accident and randomness with the timing of the closing pennant coming RIGHT AT a news event like a much-anticipated FOMC?

So I guess we'll just wait to see what happens at 2:00. However, I can't ever recall a clearly painted chart pattern or MA placement that actually resolved in OUR favor. So be on the lookout: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-gold-ahead-of-the-fomc-craig-hemk...

Now on the bright side, we have the chart for Comex Digital Silver. While it's possible that it might be shellacked this afternoon too, this chart actually looks OK. If we can just regain a toehold ABOVE the 50-day and $18...and then stay there for a few days...this chart will start to forecast another stab at $20. So watch CDS this afternoon, too.

The only other item worth discussing today is the ridiculously and overtly manipulated US Q3 GDP number that was released this morning.

First of all, keep in mind that the +1.9% number that's reported is the "real" or inflation-adjusted number...and you know how grossly under-reported US inflation is. So, if the stated inflation rate was even just 1.0% higher, then this real GDP number would have been +0.9% instead of +1.9%.

Even worse, the BEA is obviously screwing with the internals again in the hope that no one will notice or care. See this link from ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/second-consecutive-quarter-what-amer...

By stuffing the "Recreational Goods and Vehicles" category, the BEA was able to turn a real +1.6% GDP into the reported +1.9% and this flipped the headlines from "disappointing" to "exceeded expectations".

And how do we know that the BEA is doing this? Check the boots on the ground! The RV industry is clearly suffering in the US due to the tariffs and sharply falling sales. Many manufacturers are struggling and are being forced to lay off workers. So, do you trust the actual people making and selling the RVs or do you trust the .gov?

It's all just MOPE and SPIN, as Santa used to call it. The day is won by controlling the headlines and the algos. And then, when the 2nd and 3rd revisions are lower and back to the 1.6% level, no one will notice or even care as the focus will already have turned to Q4 with the plate-spinners having bought themselves another 90 days.

OK, that's it. Now we wait. I think we all suspect that another fed funds cut is coming...but you never know. And we have no idea of what will in the fedlines and what CGP will mutter in his presser. About the only thing we DO know is that he'll be wearing a purple necktie.

Have a fun day.

TF

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  56 Comments

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Ben Stackinjrbro517
Oct 30, 2019 - 3:11pm

Tulsi = Trump = Disappointment again

Trump had balls like this until he was elected. Trojan horse. Enter the slide into Technocratic hell. Hello 1984. Agent Orange is not our friend.

No matter who gets in, nothing happens. No IXXI truth. No end to forever wars. And certainly no end to the PM cluster FUCK we live every day.

Aside from Turd, this is the only other indispensable web site for Ben Stackin. Like TFM, there is a daily podcast. Listen and be informed about your future as a slave in the 5G surveillance state. Even better than TFM, it's free.

https://www.technocracy.news/

Oct 30, 2019 - 3:04pm

It's worth noting

The 10-yr initially spiked to 1.82% but now it's back to 1.798%.

The 2-yr went to 1.67% and is now back to 1.63%.

TF
Oct 30, 2019 - 2:56pm
SilverSpecTF
Oct 30, 2019 - 2:56pm

Politico just asked

I’d say it’s more of a maroon than purple

Oct 30, 2019 - 2:49pm

six questions asked

and NO ONE has yet to ask a question regarding the sudden rush to open REPO facilities and monetize $60B/month in debt.

Oct 30, 2019 - 2:38pm

the one-minute chart

Shows the fedlines and the price action through CGP's prepared remarks.

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Oct 30, 2019 - 2:33pm
50yank
Oct 30, 2019 - 2:32pm

RGLD

Compu and Mickey both correct.

Approaching support

Oct 30, 2019 - 2:21pm
Mickey
Oct 30, 2019 - 2:15pm

RGLD

saw one small item about a hedge fund selling

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Forum Discussion

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randomness