With Powell and his presser just four hours away, I guess its no surprise that the chart pattern we've been following all month has played out just as expected...with price wedged into a corner that The Banks hope to shatter this afternoon.
So...in case you need a reminder...today's the date of the October FOMC fedlines. News of another 25 basis point fed funds rate cut will hit at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chief Goon Powell and his press conference at 2:30. The only potential drama? Will someone have the courage to ask CGP about the REPO/QE/Liquidity Issue? We'll see.
In the meantime, here's another look at the chart from October 3...when we first projected that this pennant would likely contain price all the way until today:
And now here we are. Four weeks later. Do you actually think that this sort of chart appears by accident and randomness with the timing of the closing pennant coming RIGHT AT a news event like a much-anticipated FOMC?
So I guess we'll just wait to see what happens at 2:00. However, I can't ever recall a clearly painted chart pattern or MA placement that actually resolved in OUR favor. So be on the lookout: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-gold-ahead-of-the-fomc-craig-hemk...
Now on the bright side, we have the chart for Comex Digital Silver. While it's possible that it might be shellacked this afternoon too, this chart actually looks OK. If we can just regain a toehold ABOVE the 50-day and $18...and then stay there for a few days...this chart will start to forecast another stab at $20. So watch CDS this afternoon, too.
The only other item worth discussing today is the ridiculously and overtly manipulated US Q3 GDP number that was released this morning.
First of all, keep in mind that the +1.9% number that's reported is the "real" or inflation-adjusted number...and you know how grossly under-reported US inflation is. So, if the stated inflation rate was even just 1.0% higher, then this real GDP number would have been +0.9% instead of +1.9%.
Even worse, the BEA is obviously screwing with the internals again in the hope that no one will notice or care. See this link from ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/second-consecutive-quarter-what-amer...
By stuffing the "Recreational Goods and Vehicles" category, the BEA was able to turn a real +1.6% GDP into the reported +1.9% and this flipped the headlines from "disappointing" to "exceeded expectations".
And how do we know that the BEA is doing this? Check the boots on the ground! The RV industry is clearly suffering in the US due to the tariffs and sharply falling sales. Many manufacturers are struggling and are being forced to lay off workers. So, do you trust the actual people making and selling the RVs or do you trust the .gov?
It's all just MOPE and SPIN, as Santa used to call it. The day is won by controlling the headlines and the algos. And then, when the 2nd and 3rd revisions are lower and back to the 1.6% level, no one will notice or even care as the focus will already have turned to Q4 with the plate-spinners having bought themselves another 90 days.
OK, that's it. Now we wait. I think we all suspect that another fed funds cut is coming...but you never know. And we have no idea of what will in the fedlines and what CGP will mutter in his presser. About the only thing we DO know is that he'll be wearing a purple necktie.
Have a fun day.