Here Comes CGP

It's time for ghouls, goblins and Fed Goons.

56
Wed, Oct 30, 2019 - 10:29am

With Powell and his presser just four hours away, I guess its no surprise that the chart pattern we've been following all month has played out just as expected...with price wedged into a corner that The Banks hope to shatter this afternoon.

So...in case you need a reminder...today's the date of the October FOMC fedlines. News of another 25 basis point fed funds rate cut will hit at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chief Goon Powell and his press conference at 2:30. The only potential drama? Will someone have the courage to ask CGP about the REPO/QE/Liquidity Issue? We'll see.

In the meantime, here's another look at the chart from October 3...when we first projected that this pennant would likely contain price all the way until today:

And now here we are. Four weeks later. Do you actually think that this sort of chart appears by accident and randomness with the timing of the closing pennant coming RIGHT AT a news event like a much-anticipated FOMC?

So I guess we'll just wait to see what happens at 2:00. However, I can't ever recall a clearly painted chart pattern or MA placement that actually resolved in OUR favor. So be on the lookout: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-gold-ahead-of-the-fomc-craig-hemk...

Now on the bright side, we have the chart for Comex Digital Silver. While it's possible that it might be shellacked this afternoon too, this chart actually looks OK. If we can just regain a toehold ABOVE the 50-day and $18...and then stay there for a few days...this chart will start to forecast another stab at $20. So watch CDS this afternoon, too.

The only other item worth discussing today is the ridiculously and overtly manipulated US Q3 GDP number that was released this morning.

First of all, keep in mind that the +1.9% number that's reported is the "real" or inflation-adjusted number...and you know how grossly under-reported US inflation is. So, if the stated inflation rate was even just 1.0% higher, then this real GDP number would have been +0.9% instead of +1.9%.

Even worse, the BEA is obviously screwing with the internals again in the hope that no one will notice or care. See this link from ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/second-consecutive-quarter-what-amer...

By stuffing the "Recreational Goods and Vehicles" category, the BEA was able to turn a real +1.6% GDP into the reported +1.9% and this flipped the headlines from "disappointing" to "exceeded expectations".

And how do we know that the BEA is doing this? Check the boots on the ground! The RV industry is clearly suffering in the US due to the tariffs and sharply falling sales. Many manufacturers are struggling and are being forced to lay off workers. So, do you trust the actual people making and selling the RVs or do you trust the .gov?

It's all just MOPE and SPIN, as Santa used to call it. The day is won by controlling the headlines and the algos. And then, when the 2nd and 3rd revisions are lower and back to the 1.6% level, no one will notice or even care as the focus will already have turned to Q4 with the plate-spinners having bought themselves another 90 days.

OK, that's it. Now we wait. I think we all suspect that another fed funds cut is coming...but you never know. And we have no idea of what will in the fedlines and what CGP will mutter in his presser. About the only thing we DO know is that he'll be wearing a purple necktie.

Have a fun day.

TF

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  56 Comments

Marchas45
Oct 30, 2019 - 10:36am

Well I'll Be Damned

1st Keep Stacking

Island Teal
Oct 30, 2019 - 10:40am

2nd or 3rd

2020 options

Oct 30, 2019 - 10:48am

Tulsi nails it again

She and I disagree on nearly every public policy issue. However, she has incredible courage to speak The Truth regarding geo-politics and war.

Erdogan has been helping ISIS/AQ for years. He has denied this but is now openly using militias of "former" ISIS/AQ terrorists, exposing him for what he really is: a radical Islamist megalomaniac who wants to establish a caliphate with himself as the Caliph — the supreme ruler. pic.twitter.com/AQ5zb6Hp08

— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) October 30, 2019
TF
Oct 30, 2019 - 10:54am

If you've been around here for a while...

...then you know that Turkey and Erdogan is something I've followed closely for years.

The devil Erdogan has worked diligently to wipe out and reverse all that Ataturk put into place in order to keep Turkey prosperous and democratic after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Knowing this, when I saw Ataturk at Madame Tussaud's in London back in 2016, I had MrsF snap this picture.

"Losing" Turkey to Islamism and dictatorship will have massive geo-political ramifications for decades to come.

Oct 30, 2019 - 11:05am

and this needs to be included today

We all knew at the time that Epstein was murdered. The man simply knew too much about the rich and powerful. He could NOT be allowed to testify. Note how quickly the story was dropped and note that ZERO effort has since been made to find his accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell.

Anyway, this independent coroner is quite certain that he was murdered. And why is this important? It is NOT a democrat/republican/Clinton/Trump thing. Instead, it a TOTAL CORRUPTION AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS thing.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/forensic-pathologist-jeffrey-epstein-homicide...

J Siefert
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:05am

Dollar Vigilante on Epstein Island

The First Independent Media To Invade Epstein's Island [Share Before Taken Down]
MarcusTF
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:09am

Tulsi

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

lakedweller2
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:09am

Corruption

The gift that keeps on taking.

Wishram
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:12am

RV's

Not sure exactly what is counted in "Recreational Goods and Vehicles", but I assume it isn't all what we colloquially refers to as RV's, but would include a whole range of vehicles including ATV's. ATV's are the discretionary purchase of the day in my neighborhood, especially "side-by-sides", which clog our back roads on weekends as they aimlessly put-put around the countryside.

Angry Chef
Oct 30, 2019 - 11:26am

Just a clip of Barry admitting to training ISIS

They're a number of Countries that have their hands in this ISIS thing. Including America, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Germany, France, Britain, Canada, UAE, Bahrain. But I recall protest in front of Congress when Obama had proposed sending troops to Syria. Almost a million people showed up to protest. Largely not covered by the MSM. So the decision was made not to send troops directly into Syria. Two weeks later ISIS shows up. The plan to use radical Islam against ruling powers in the ME actually dates back to Kaiser Wilhelm and Germany. The ability to send individual Countries troops to fight War's for the Banksters and the MIC has become Politically unpleasant as bail outs and bail in's. So the solution is mercenary forces to achieve the goal of regime change and constant War. So even though our troops have less involvement. We still pay for it in taxes and collateral damage.

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/just-a-clip-of-barry-admitting-to-tr...

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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