What Now?

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:28pm

What an interesting seven weeks it's been. From the jubilation of late April to the frustration of early May to the despair of today, we've certainly ridden the trader rollercoaster.

I've tried to lead the way through the darkness but this sorcerer/soothsayer stuff is pretty challenging, particularly when you're dealing with a criminal enterprise on the other side of your trades. Regardless, let's recap so that we can begin to decide where to go from here.

First, back on May 18th I gave you what some began to call a "roadmap". Here's a link:


I'll be the first to admit that the silver prediction for June came up short. I was looking for a rebound to $42-43 based upon the same fundos that had driven silver since August. The fundos are undoubtedly still there but the buyers aren't. All of the C/C/C shenanigans have scared them away for now. Silver made it to 38.84 on 5/26 and 38.76 on 5/31 but that was it. The gold prediction turned out pretty well, however. I was looking for a June peak between 1560 and 1580 and we made it to 1559.30 yesterday. Here, then, are the salient points going forward:

"5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real."

Then, there's this, which I wrote on June 8:


In this post, we discussed how a rallying POSX might be the final nail-in-the-coffin for the gold rally from January. I hoped that it wouldn't be but I feared that it was. (Against my own advice, I bought those August gold calls Tuesday. Turd dumdum. "Walk in middle of road. Get squished like grape.") From this post, here is the most important point:

"The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780."

So, how does this relate to today? To me, today's action was the final, crushing blow to the 5-month rally in gold and the hoped-for recovery in silver. I now have no doubt that Santa, Turk et al will be proven wrong over the summer. There will be no "explosive" summer rally that will "confound the experts" and "make contrarians money". The PMs will simply be in another 8-week consolidation phase as they prepare for the next 18-week rally, which should begin by late August/early September. Until then, my advice to you is to not play. If anything, take advantage of dips toward the lower end of the described ranges by adding and stacking your physical. You'll have several opportunities over the next 8 weeks or so to buy some physical on "sale". If greed convinces you to trade paper on the Comex, you will only find yourself in the end with less fiat than you started with and you're going to want as much fiat as possible in your warchest when the next major UP move begins.

I leave you for now with these words of wisdom that Santa emailed out earlier today. Relax. Be happy. Enjoy the summer. Be ready for fall. TF

Dear Friends,

Economic statistics are taking a hard fall.

Without QE who will buy US treasury issues?
Without QE where is the basis of world equity markets?
Without QE what do you think the chart of unemployment will look like?
Without QE how do you think the camouflage of the insolvent balance sheets of the financial industry will fare?
Without QE where is mortgage money coming from?
Without QE what do you think home prices will do?
Without QE how will the present Administration and the legislative be re-elected?
Without QE how will the States of the United States of America finance themselves?

Be prepared for a reversal of the decision to curtail QE at the end of June.
Be prepared for a snap back at a greater percentage of QE with a different name.
Be prepared for covert QE between July 1st and late August when stimulation goes wild.
Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play.
Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time.

Stand firm on your gold positions.
Stand firm on your discipline of NO margin.
Stand strong in your Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar positions.

Survive the MOPE and market manipulation that is so obvious today.

Respectfully, Santa

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 24, 2011 - 11:16pm

Lindsey Williams said on Alex

Lindsey Williams said on Alex Jones that gold and silver will pretty much stay put until September and then up 20-25% through the end of the year.

Jun 24, 2011 - 11:01pm

Dimes...where did you pick them up?

where did you pick them up from?

I finally made it to the local coin shop's new location. had great talk w/ the owner who shares many of views discussed here. Picked out a few Peace Dollars, :) What nice coins!

Nice to do local business!

Love the New site here .... but kinda miss how every one's comments were jammed together on the old site, had a good 'flow'. Tons of info here , but more spread out.

Jun 24, 2011 - 10:41pm

Silver Dimes

I just caught on to silver dimes. Planning on buying more tomorrow!

Jun 24, 2011 - 10:27pm


Loaded up on NGD today, yes its a little early but I wanted in so I'll ride it out.

Lets all give thanks to our fine Host, click an ad, click the donate button, I know times are tough and beggar thy neighbor is tacky, but Turd gave us this home lets all support it.

Cheers and have a nice weekend.

Confucius says: By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.


Jun 24, 2011 - 10:20pm

Please don't be discouraged or permenantly give up trading

Do not emotionally trade the news. Equities will statistically drop when they individually or as a group are technically "over supplied" and rise when there are at appropriate demand levels. The market makers and many professional traders know how to time this with low risk and high probabilty (and profit). The former will take advantage of you until you get (read pay) a willing member of the later to explain to you the rules of this admittedly rigged game. Trading/investing in equities/futures/options/ forex as a novice may be dangerous to your wealth and mental health.

Jun 24, 2011 - 9:03pm

Oh well !

This is dammed comical. Facts say the whole Fiat system is stuffed, Greece austerity plan is doomed to failure before it's even approved, Japan reactor fallout completely ignored / avoided, Arabian problems have no chance of resolution due to polar difference in beliefs, and Western EE's are now in a rush to get troops back home to look after their own survival on their home fronts.

Yet sheeple work on wholly illogical supposition that the safest option is to buy paper $. Visiting Zimbabwe in the late 1990's I personally saw what hyperinflation was . Get this

$20 000 on your groceries and that doesn't fill up the trolley. Think of it as only $200

Don't believe me? Read https://www.insiderzim.com/stories/361-one-cent-in-1990-now-worth-1-.html

Every week I buy Pm's, some paper, some physical. Some weeks I lose, some weeks I gain, I don't buy to make a short term profit, I do buy to protect THE REAL VALUE of my hours worked in this crazy world.

P.S. News from the UK; Deputy PM is proposing 'Every person registered on the electoral role is going to get £1000 each of RBS / LLoyds shares for the public money paid out to bail the banks out' (Less of course the Bank of England cost = probably £-10 each). So sheeple are already planning how to spend their free UK QEIII on their next holiday to Greece. Now that's the way to do QE, make Joe public happy, and without having to admit Fiats stuffed !

If I'm wrong please tell me, history, fundamentals, and facts are all that matter at the end of the day. George Soros 'There are only 2 kinds of ideas... those that have been falsified and those that have yet to be !';

Jun 24, 2011 - 7:35pm

Summer Consolidation.....or not?

50% of me says that PM's will be range bound until fall but the other half of me says that "the state of the economy" will show it's ugly face in late July and bring one last "paper push" if you will.

America is on the verge of the worst financial disaster in recorded history and the end of July will either show one of two things:

1. We are all in for one long ride when the dollar simply is not worth the paper it's printed on.


2. Republicans and Democrats will "agree" on a plan of action......NOT LIKELY!!

Which brings me to ponder the question, will the normal "range" for PM's in summer be just like always or will there be a scare into paper PM's to try and collect quick losses, which would shoot SLV and GLD through the roof right before one last sell off before the paper PM's are worthless.

I think the one contract I have left in SLV will test this theory and if I am right I will not make a fortune but an extra $200 bucks in my pocket to buy physical would be well worth the risk for the money I spent on the 34 call.

In short, keep a lot of dry powder but in never hurts to bet a tiny portion of that powder, especially when riding this roller coaster that changes every day your on it.

Have a happy July 4th to you all and good luck.

Jun 24, 2011 - 7:31pm

Whats all the Fuss?

Do you remember the AU battle at $750? What about$900? $1000? $1200? $1500? If you're fortunate enough to have some excess FRN's keep accumulating Physical and quality miners. All else is just noise .... Relax.

Jun 24, 2011 - 7:08pm

all out

i'm with chicken little..

i sold half my portfolio yesterday and the other half today.

the market is way to manipulated to invest in (short or long positions). you can not rely on the regulators to police the big players.

i see this as one of those times when you just want to sit on the sidelines and watch the shenanigans.

..it's a lot easier on my blood pressure too.

Rear Flank Downdraftmagis00
Jun 24, 2011 - 6:28pm

@magisoo's reply to I Wazere

Well spoken. After all, the discipline and learned patience it takes to acquaint oneself with the ethos and vernacular of this particular community can only aid that one with the discipline and patience it takes to journey through this maelstrom with some margin of success and wholeness.

It appears to me that's what we're here to do.

There's much I still don't understand, so I can sidle up to that feeling. And what I've encountered here has spurred my own researching and exponentially increased learning too, even if I've had to spend time doing so. And that's been a good thing!

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
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6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
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6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
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6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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