What Now?

254
187
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:28pm

What an interesting seven weeks it's been. From the jubilation of late April to the frustration of early May to the despair of today, we've certainly ridden the trader rollercoaster.

I've tried to lead the way through the darkness but this sorcerer/soothsayer stuff is pretty challenging, particularly when you're dealing with a criminal enterprise on the other side of your trades. Regardless, let's recap so that we can begin to decide where to go from here.

First, back on May 18th I gave you what some began to call a "roadmap". Here's a link:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

I'll be the first to admit that the silver prediction for June came up short. I was looking for a rebound to $42-43 based upon the same fundos that had driven silver since August. The fundos are undoubtedly still there but the buyers aren't. All of the C/C/C shenanigans have scared them away for now. Silver made it to 38.84 on 5/26 and 38.76 on 5/31 but that was it. The gold prediction turned out pretty well, however. I was looking for a June peak between 1560 and 1580 and we made it to 1559.30 yesterday. Here, then, are the salient points going forward:

"5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real."

Then, there's this, which I wrote on June 8:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/hoping-to-be-wrong.html

In this post, we discussed how a rallying POSX might be the final nail-in-the-coffin for the gold rally from January. I hoped that it wouldn't be but I feared that it was. (Against my own advice, I bought those August gold calls Tuesday. Turd dumdum. "Walk in middle of road. Get squished like grape.") From this post, here is the most important point:

"The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780."

So, how does this relate to today? To me, today's action was the final, crushing blow to the 5-month rally in gold and the hoped-for recovery in silver. I now have no doubt that Santa, Turk et al will be proven wrong over the summer. There will be no "explosive" summer rally that will "confound the experts" and "make contrarians money". The PMs will simply be in another 8-week consolidation phase as they prepare for the next 18-week rally, which should begin by late August/early September. Until then, my advice to you is to not play. If anything, take advantage of dips toward the lower end of the described ranges by adding and stacking your physical. You'll have several opportunities over the next 8 weeks or so to buy some physical on "sale". If greed convinces you to trade paper on the Comex, you will only find yourself in the end with less fiat than you started with and you're going to want as much fiat as possible in your warchest when the next major UP move begins.

I leave you for now with these words of wisdom that Santa emailed out earlier today. Relax. Be happy. Enjoy the summer. Be ready for fall. TF

Dear Friends,

Economic statistics are taking a hard fall.

Without QE who will buy US treasury issues?
Without QE where is the basis of world equity markets?
Without QE what do you think the chart of unemployment will look like?
Without QE how do you think the camouflage of the insolvent balance sheets of the financial industry will fare?
Without QE where is mortgage money coming from?
Without QE what do you think home prices will do?
Without QE how will the present Administration and the legislative be re-elected?
Without QE how will the States of the United States of America finance themselves?

Be prepared for a reversal of the decision to curtail QE at the end of June.
Be prepared for a snap back at a greater percentage of QE with a different name.
Be prepared for covert QE between July 1st and late August when stimulation goes wild.
Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play.
Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time.

Stand firm on your gold positions.
Stand firm on your discipline of NO margin.
Stand strong in your Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar positions.

Survive the MOPE and market manipulation that is so obvious today.

Respectfully, Santa

paper_6-23pmgold.jpgpaper_6-23pmsilv.jpg

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  254 Comments

Cleburne61 beatlebum19
Jun 24, 2011 - 8:39am

Actually friend, I appreciate

Actually friend, I appreciate you speaking to silver....but in 1950 there was only about 10 billion worldwide, with the U.S. holding over 3 billion oz of it. Today there is not 33 billion....but under 1 billion oz left. It's even more rare than you think.

Shill
Jun 24, 2011 - 8:48am

GDP FARCE

Sorry, that data is flawed by government spending - all DEFICIT spending. Takes out the huge increase in federal spending the last three years and you will see that GDP is WELL DOWN on 2008.

The petroleum distillates data for demand also shows there is NO WAY GDP is up - this is all Wall St. and deficit spending survey illusions. Look at the REAL data such as food stamps and the number of people actually eligible for unemployment insurance coverage and you will see the true story - a deeper and deeper drop into the abyss.

SilverWealth
Jun 24, 2011 - 8:57am

predictions

With all respect I do not feel that from the action yesterday one can assume how the rest of the summer will perform. Maybe but then some assumptions have been made by all of us over this last 2 month period that have been less than accurate. Gold always sells hard right after making significant highs and this time was no different.

I think there is a chance that come another week and then early July and some surprises will be set in store for the doledrummers. Who knows?

A.Completo
Jun 24, 2011 - 8:57am

A sign?

I've been getting a lot of credit card and loan offers with 12 months 0% APR. You guys think that's a "sure" sign QE3 is coming? They wouldn't do that if they knew rates were going up right?

Big Buffalo
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:11am

Kick the can down the road.

What happens when the road is a Dead End?

Let's buy some phyzz on this dip (between now and end of July).

SilverWealth
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:12am

kingworldnews

I love KingWorldNews but I do not give their technical calls alot of credence since there is frequently an air of desperation to them and the same guys are always calling for breakouts and big moves. Its encouraging to listen to Sinclair and Turk and Embry but I try and do it with an attitude of knowing where they are coming from and where they themselves are invested.

ewc58
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:12am

33bn oz of Ag?

Oh sure, no problemo, just ask CME's Jeff Christian, he'll tell ya!

So it turns out that Eric Sprott just didn't know how to find physical silver for PSLV last year. After all, there's just SO much of the crap laying around. What the hell was Der Sprott complaining about anyway? Silly Canuck...

Shill
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:19am

Gold miners

This is not of course a signal for you to buy, but I am buying Gold miners today.

My sock draw full of Cocaine and Doll heads told me so. :)

Big Buffalo
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:20am

Oil Release

This oil release is completely the wrong thing for our country and the world. It will reduce our gas costs and give us a little more to spend from week to week, but it puts us more at risk when/if there is a true supply crunch. Our reserves are for emergencies, not elections. Why is this administration selling our insurance (oil) policy? Why, if they have a "strong"alternative energy policy, would they want lower oil prices? Doesn't that work against your own policies? Obama will not be re-elected, even with these tricks.

This oil release will have a very short term effect, then Ben will use another trick, then another trick. . . then we hit the dead end.

worldend666
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:22am

EWC58

>>First laugher of the day, and it's a good one!

What was it that amused you? 

Gold Dog
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:26am

Barter Gold

I have been having luck buying scrap gold on FleaBay. Chains, rings, lockets, etc. paying less than the spot price for the gold content.

My recollection was that it was FerFal who said that in the "tween times" between old and new currency the local farmers market, (Flee Market?), counts all gold as 14kt and it's best to have some of your stash in the 14 to swap for stuff you want to purchase.

Gold content of the various KT numbers can be found at Wiki or you can Google it up. You can get a scale and test acid for about $60.00 on the auction site.

It would be criminal to have to cough up a 1/4 Eagle for 58.33% of it's true content.

It's summer!

"DO NOT pass up any opportunity to go swimming or get laid or you will regret it for the rest of your life!" -Gold Dog 1971

Peace out kids!

Dog

mastercylinder
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:30am

Is the Bermuda Triangle expanding faster than the US DEBT?

  • Doldrums can dishearten even the most disciplined.
  • Turk Chapman Sinclair Stewart Thompson ..They're all wrong.
  • ​Every city has a police dept. anonymous tip help line. They offer some cash reward for good information to solve crimes. They call it the"Crime Stoppers" tip line
  • ​For those old enough to remember - was there talk of fiat collapse in 2000 and 2002 too? Is this just Groundhog day
  • ​I believe Ayn Rand explained what's happening in the US in her book Atlas Shrugged.

​I still cannot quite believe what I'm reading here today....this is the state of the Union at this particular moment of crisis??? These are representative voices of the current crop of GOLDERHOLDERS!?....man, 

AMERIKA: either trolltown has invaded the justoffthepress tfmetalsreport.com blog, or you in deeper doodoo than even I coulda imagined. And imagination is my strong suite. The deadenders are piling up here faster than the

cost overruns\missingmoolah 

of a contractor supported ENDURINGFREEDOM debacle. 

I won't even stoop to answer the caddy what asked bout GDay. 

"Mind"stoppers I already spoke to in my previous of above. Hang up the phone dude; yur line is not working.

"Disciplined"....? if I knew how to work this half baked excuse for a site I'da inserted a video of da GODFATHER, MR James Brown...right about{ } here, with a Tmarked "GoodGawdAlmighty"scream. Boy...you wouldn't know Discipline if it hit you on the backside like a nasty prep school prefect... Get outta here n find a mentor!

As for MR\MS Randite......ummm....Greenspan, the PreBernak Autocrat parachuted in to help ruin an otherwise healthy economy already "explained" to us all what's "happening in Amerika"....it is my fervent and heartfelt wish that you and your ilk live to enjoy the consequences! I believe yu shuld just leave. 

Turk-Chapman...etc. etc.....?don't even start here trollboy...you just took on the wrong assignment. Any one of the above mentioned gentlemen is gonna TAN YUR HIDE if you don't hightail it outta here NOW. 

SO...the BODYSNATCHERS things was like, REALLY REAL after all huh? Scary. 

SilverWealth
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:53am

some timing

the timer I follow, Morris Hubbart, is seeing big strength in PM coming by very early July or late this month. Especially for the miners. I don't think he would mind my mentioning it. For what its worth, Clive Maund is saying something similar, that a surprise is coming. It is terribly difficult attempting to time these things because many of the charts I feel are painted by criminal waterfalling action made to cap the price of gold and silver and create an air of dangerous volatility and unreliability in that sector. No doubt gold now is trading as currency so all the more reason they want to jack around its price. So timing in this atmosphere is especially difficult I think.

good luck to everyone, who knows what the summer brings, I just saw a bobcat outside my front yard up here and my wild peacock started going nuts. The coyotes down the road were raucus all night and the timberwolf the guy at the end of the canyon keeps in his back yard was howling in the early morning. Life goes on....

Colonel-Angus mastercylinder
Jun 24, 2011 - 9:58am

mastercylinder

Ok know-it -all my portfolio is up 80% YTD. Perhaps you could enlighten us on some of your massively brilliant investment decisions smacktard. 

Hickerydooo
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:02am

Noticable

Dear Turd and readers,

As a loyal reader of this website is should beginn with giving compliments to all of you.

Since a year now i have been collecting, absorbing and using most of the information around here and made some profits as well. Also lost a few euro's to the EE and it makes me sick every time you see the raid coming...or not (LOL)

Altough Turd is giving us a great daily commentary on economics and gold/silver in special i must say that i am sorry to see that it seems that many among us (including Turd) are showing more and more down-feelings on silver.

Also to me it seems that posts are coming in later and later which seems to me a lot of people do need some kind of pause? ( or Turd needs more sleepy sleepy in the morning?)

The new website is looking good, but less posts are being made in the regular section underneath Turd's commentary and have moved to different blogs...i think it was better to see all the comments at once. ( which gives a much better understanding of so many views on gold/silver. ( it also kept the fire alive....)

Well...keep up the great and wonderfull thing you have been keeping alive to date and hope that fundos won't change and things will get better on silver soon!!!

Keep buying the precious metals ( KBTPM)

p.s. 1) some thought!...what if everybody should NOT trade paper silver for some time? whould that let the EE explode and turn things in our favor?

2) What is the most current thought about LME/ Comex to default and what timeline? how big is that event going to take place on a scale from 1-10 (where 10 would stand for to be... very very very very very very very likely)

Grtz,

Hickerydooo

Gold Dog Colonel-Angus
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:04am

I hear ya Mein Colonel!

I hear ya Mein Colonel!

Yooper Rick
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:13am

Remember, we live  in a

Remember, we live in a bankster instigated, satanically inspired system that perpetuates itself. Without Divine intervention, mere human attempts to "revive" freedom will fail. The concept of freedom has never been any more than a cover for manipulated markets and tyranny in general, hence the idea of "western democracy". Control will not be wrested from the "Power Elite" at the ballot box or on the COMEX floor. Patriot blood and God"s will are the only antidotes for this "Disease"!

ewc58 worldend666
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:23am

Your comment

is amusing because somehow you seem to have missed the well known fact that people around the planet know to come to Turd for balance. Without this side of the news, one is unbalanced and way off kilter in trying to perceive the reality going on all around them.

But if you consider our doing that and sharing thoughts outside the moronic parameters allowed by the truly real unbalanced sources (CNBS, Bloomberg Bozo Network, Faux Business News, WSJ, the FT, etc) "cultish" or hysterical", perhaps this is not the blog for you. I hope you stay, but try to realize where you are, who you're sharing this special place with, and just how hard to find and rare these things are. Embrace them.

See, Turd is the anti-BS source, and we love him for that. And for giving us a place to gather and share. More "balance" like Turd, we all need.

I don't know that these positions qualify me as a cult member though.

worldend666
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:27am

I wasn't referring to the

I wasn't referring to the Turd as unbalanced. EWC58.

Just some of the frantic groupthink here needs to be put in perspective. I am not saying there is no financial meltdown. I am saying the PM market got itself into a lather about this many times before and whilst we will be right in the end - is that moment now? I am not smart enough to say.

Boardwalk
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:29am

@TMosley

Kudos to you Sir, for finding a voice that fits this blog for you to spread your message of buy phyzz, ditch paper. It is encouraging to see people in this forum embrace your message. This calm and consistent voice is a facet of your (online) persona that I did not expect to witness, based on your frequent use of foul language and quick and nasty temper displayed so often on ZH. Those vile rants destroyed many a thread and greatly diminished the impact and acceptance of your message.

The voice you have chosen to use here is making a huge contribution. Keep it up!

stoneeh
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:35am

Lol @ those who got suckered

Lol @ those who got suckered into gold over the last few days "because it held so steadily". Repeat repeat repeat repeat: you don't buy what is going up or has already gone up!

Long paper silver since 35 or 36$ about a month ago - no reason in sight to change my tactic.

- Markus

ned braden Yooper Rick
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:35am

@Yooper Rick

I hate to say this, but more and more I feel the same way. The Tea Party (whatever that is currently) has been co-opted by RINOs and others of that ilk. This whole clusterf**k will not come down easily. Ron Paul will help if enough support is generated and he is seen as less of a kook.

I haven't done much praying since I was a child but am starting to do more again.

Patriot's blood.......I hope we can gather that much courage; but it won't be muskets this time I'm afraid.

Shill
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:35am

Ok who went?

President Obama's $35,800 per Plate NYC Fundraiser

Last night, President Obama attended a $35,800 DNC fundraiser in NYC at the restaurant, Daniel.

Reports indicate that least 67 Wall Street types were on hand, from hedge fund managers to investment bankers to private equity players.


Jun 24, 2011 - 10:38am

Just Watching Today

I have no new comments to post so I'm just watching for now.

Let's see where we end up today. After the close, I'll post a recap with some thoughts on next week. 

mastercylinder Colonel-Angus
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:45am

Why did the chicken cross the...oops too late!

smacktard huh? ....what, did recess just end in yur schoolyard Bubba..? It's been a while but I think I remember school got out about some time last week....

Oh, yah, then there was those summer school guys....the ones that didn't squeak past the 55% necessary to move along....sorry, I forgot bout yáll.

My best investment decision? Thanks for the softball braniac! It was moving outta yur neighborhood. 

My new neighborhood has a GDP that is actually rising. New car sales are boomin. Lotta Mercedes n Beemers. You sound like a Toyota CORROLLA with a missing muffler and a lotta rust issues. Let us know how that 80% o nuthin works out for ya big fella!

Shill
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:48am

@mastercylinder My new

@mastercylinder My new neighborhood has a GDP that is actually rising. New car sales are  boomin. Lotta Mercedes n Beemers.

I bet your shit smells like roses as well. And for such an Astute fellow living among such rich like folks, your white trash slang says your full of it. If your bragging you ain't got squat.

AstroTurd bullwhip29
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:48am

Dear @ScottJ -- Kindly Leave The Blog

I normally pass over pointless comments and waste of reader's time, but you insulted the Turd personally and I don't want this site to become another one of the literally millions of other lets-all-bitch-and-moan-but-get-nothing-done sites.

Words don't make a man, actions do. Turd's not a prophet, never claimed to be, has always told readers to use their OWN minds and resources, and unlike liars and politicians, he readily admits mistakes as a confident professional should. Pure luck? That's like saying a career carpenter's finished house was 'pure luck' and when he made a mistake on one of his jobs, he instantly becomes a liar or deceiver, which is what a pied piper is.

I've been happily following the Turd's soiled trail for awhile now, and you've apparently not read most of his articles. The bulk of his insights have been highly intelligent and accurate overall, and he is an excellent writer to boot. I learned more here about metals and the real story of US economics/banking than anywhere else. Based on these facts I can reasonably conclude that your remarks are childishly generalized, uninformed, and thoughtlessly stated, to put it kindly. 

I suggest you apologize to the Turd for the infected diarrhea you have dumped on this site. The Turd's shee-ite does not stink and we must help ensure this healthy colon of information stays free of infectious ranteria.

By the way, where are your charts, expertise, in-depth studies, and your well-proven metals investing career background? If the Turd is a blind luck, talk-is-cheap, deceiving pied piper, then logic dictates you immediately escape this lost cause quickly and start your own amazing blog. There you can joyously play your own flute of musical insults and become your own piper of prognostication.

-Burt

agauinvest
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:49am

How to keep rates low

With maintenance of the same quantity (not any easing in total quantity) here is how the Fed will try to deal with the UST excess that comes with the end of QE2:

Part of what comes due and will get reinvested in order to maintain the same levels on the balance sheet is mortgage backed paper. Now, the Fed would be stupid to take those proceeds and invest them in more sub-prime (used in a loose sense of the term) paper that really shouldn't be on the balance sheet of any central bank. Instead, where only a (large, but not the entirety) portion of the QEs was invested in USTs, nearly the entire amount of the reinvestment will be in USTs, thereby keeping the balance sheet levels the same, but increasing the amount of UST debt (and decreasing things like MBS) owned by the Fed. As a "bonus," the perceived quality of the assets on the balance sheet will improve over time in this way. Of course, that requires suspending the belief that I hold that UST debt is waaay overrated. 

Sorry for the ramble/rant, but I had to get this out because I am sick of seeing misuse of the term "quantitative easing" so much here, and reference to reinvestment, which is little if any "easing" referred to as QE3. If I am right in that the reinvestment will not be enough support for the bond market, this fall there will be a real and overt QE3, because politicians and consumers will clamor for it, so maybe this will all become a moot point.

Capt. Willard
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:51am

Lofty and kinglike

What's happening, gang?

We're in PMs dropzone and the instinctive reaction of a small minority is to point fingers, name-calling and insults?

Focus on task at hand.

Debate about support levels, trading ranges until August and influencial factors foreign and domestic.

Focus, gang, focus. This divide and conquer has to stop ASAP.

The wolf is the strength of the pack, the pack is the strength of the wolf.

Dropping through 1505...our LZ is hot. We better get our senses clean in order to make wise moves.

Stay frosty and go hard, Turds!

Eric Original
Jun 24, 2011 - 10:54am

SilverWealth re:kingworldnews

Agreed. Mostly KWN is best for when you are in the mood for raw PM cheerleading. Nothing wrong with that as long as you know what it is.

However, I never miss anything Rick Rule has to say. One of the few regulars there who will tell you he's selling stuff just when everybody else is getting all excited to the upside. He'll also tell you he's buying right when the rest of us are puking. He has excellent timing.

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