What Now?

254
187
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:28pm

What an interesting seven weeks it's been. From the jubilation of late April to the frustration of early May to the despair of today, we've certainly ridden the trader rollercoaster.

I've tried to lead the way through the darkness but this sorcerer/soothsayer stuff is pretty challenging, particularly when you're dealing with a criminal enterprise on the other side of your trades. Regardless, let's recap so that we can begin to decide where to go from here.

First, back on May 18th I gave you what some began to call a "roadmap". Here's a link:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

I'll be the first to admit that the silver prediction for June came up short. I was looking for a rebound to $42-43 based upon the same fundos that had driven silver since August. The fundos are undoubtedly still there but the buyers aren't. All of the C/C/C shenanigans have scared them away for now. Silver made it to 38.84 on 5/26 and 38.76 on 5/31 but that was it. The gold prediction turned out pretty well, however. I was looking for a June peak between 1560 and 1580 and we made it to 1559.30 yesterday. Here, then, are the salient points going forward:

"5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real."

Then, there's this, which I wrote on June 8:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/hoping-to-be-wrong.html

In this post, we discussed how a rallying POSX might be the final nail-in-the-coffin for the gold rally from January. I hoped that it wouldn't be but I feared that it was. (Against my own advice, I bought those August gold calls Tuesday. Turd dumdum. "Walk in middle of road. Get squished like grape.") From this post, here is the most important point:

"The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780."

So, how does this relate to today? To me, today's action was the final, crushing blow to the 5-month rally in gold and the hoped-for recovery in silver. I now have no doubt that Santa, Turk et al will be proven wrong over the summer. There will be no "explosive" summer rally that will "confound the experts" and "make contrarians money". The PMs will simply be in another 8-week consolidation phase as they prepare for the next 18-week rally, which should begin by late August/early September. Until then, my advice to you is to not play. If anything, take advantage of dips toward the lower end of the described ranges by adding and stacking your physical. You'll have several opportunities over the next 8 weeks or so to buy some physical on "sale". If greed convinces you to trade paper on the Comex, you will only find yourself in the end with less fiat than you started with and you're going to want as much fiat as possible in your warchest when the next major UP move begins.

I leave you for now with these words of wisdom that Santa emailed out earlier today. Relax. Be happy. Enjoy the summer. Be ready for fall. TF

Dear Friends,

Economic statistics are taking a hard fall.

Without QE who will buy US treasury issues?
Without QE where is the basis of world equity markets?
Without QE what do you think the chart of unemployment will look like?
Without QE how do you think the camouflage of the insolvent balance sheets of the financial industry will fare?
Without QE where is mortgage money coming from?
Without QE what do you think home prices will do?
Without QE how will the present Administration and the legislative be re-elected?
Without QE how will the States of the United States of America finance themselves?

Be prepared for a reversal of the decision to curtail QE at the end of June.
Be prepared for a snap back at a greater percentage of QE with a different name.
Be prepared for covert QE between July 1st and late August when stimulation goes wild.
Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play.
Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time.

Stand firm on your gold positions.
Stand firm on your discipline of NO margin.
Stand strong in your Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar positions.

Survive the MOPE and market manipulation that is so obvious today.

Respectfully, Santa


About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  254 Comments

SilverTree
Jun 23, 2011 - 4:31pm

Don't Stop Believin

Don't Stop Believin' - Journey (Family Guy)
Northern Border
Jun 23, 2011 - 4:42pm

Nothing has changed

Ask yourself this question ?

Has anything changed from when you got that first stack of eagles in your hands ?

Nope.

Keep stacking and taking advantage of the discounted physical. Were on the right side of history. The question is, when the other 99% of the population finally realizes this, what happens next?

SilverTree Northern Border
Jun 23, 2011 - 4:43pm

Don't stop,

Don't stop, Stackin!

ScottJ
Jun 23, 2011 - 4:45pm

I personally agree with

I personally agree with Santa, and that this is the head-fake before the move up. It is not like they are going to show the world through TA one of the biggest spectacles in modern financial history (in significance as all gold prices push to new highs together). They want the least amount of people on the train when it takes off, right?

R.I.P. Federal Reserve Note, 1971-2012

Sterling
Jun 23, 2011 - 5:08pm

BTMFD!!!

BTMFD!!!

tmosley
Jun 23, 2011 - 5:09pm

Five more weeks till D-Day.

Five more weeks till D-Day. I wouldn't talk about much about "summer doldrums" until this COMEX inventory problem is resolved somehow.

These are historic times. Paper will diverge from physical, and that paper will become worthless. FAST.

Stay away from paper.

TrollKiller
Jun 23, 2011 - 5:10pm

Wealth will be measured in Ounces

Keep you powder dry.

Gold down in the last 3 days nearly $40, most of that in the last 24 hours.

And yet nothing has changed, do not despair it is a long way from here to September. Control is a slippery thing even for the slippery. Just when you think you have everything under control squish goes to squash and the technical analysis is left in the dust.

Never forget everything can change in a day and if it can drop $40 it can rise $80.

"Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr

Don't write off the rocket launch just because the bad guys have painted the chart, don't underestimate the Turk, or the General.

Be ready for the ignition.

Agophillic
Jun 23, 2011 - 5:15pm

Keep on, keepin on

On top of stacking, I would say that if this economy is going to go into a lull, then it is a perfect time to be tucking away everything that you can.

I have moved away from bullion and have focused on junk 90. I love the webiste www.coinflation.com for all of my pricing needs...90% is the most affordable way to keep stacking, and the best way to protect your purchasing power in lieu of the looming global currency crisis.

bullwhip29
Jun 23, 2011 - 5:17pm

@ ScottJ

I am sticking with Santa and Turk too.

As much as I can respect what Turd has done (maintaining this blog undoubtedly takes up a lot of time), some of his calls have been so far off the mark (think 180') that I am beginning to wonder if his initial success can be attributed to nothing more than pure luck, plain and simple or perhaps this Pied Piper act we have now witnessed twice in two months is by design? Sorry guys, my mind is wandering... More likely that not, he is not the one to blame as there are so moving parts to keep an eye on that it virtually impossible for anyone to make sense of what is going on and in recent posts he himself has acknowledged this. Say what you want, but telling us now that you have no clue what is going on is rather disappointing to say the least. Should we all be surprised by this? No. Are we fools to believe that some random guy on the net had it all figured out? Probably. Hey, I know that expressing my concerns about this NOW doesn't help anyone out either. In fact, it has the appearance of sour grapes, mindless bashing etc. but that is not my intent here. For what it's worth, I believe the best advice is he given us so far is quoted in today's post, "What Now?" and that is to NOT PLAY.

Good luck to all!

atlee ScottJ
Jun 23, 2011 - 5:22pm

just because the I am not on

just because the I am not on the train when it leaves the station, does that mean I can't buy immediately? Is there some rule that says if I am not on when it leaves the station I am shut out? Does that mean pay high for my ticket now rather than wait for a lower price with the risk that I MAY have to pay higher? I am still going for the ride to $2,000 when it happens.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Recent Comments

by Outback, 18 min 16 sec ago
by downrange, 23 min 3 sec ago
by Island Teal, 24 min 45 sec ago
by DeaconBenjamin, 30 min 22 sec ago
by cashonly, 44 min 31 sec ago

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 2 hours 27 min ago
by NW VIEW, 3 hours 50 min ago
by Solsson, 7 hours 57 min ago
by Solsson, 8 hours 21 min ago
randomness